Friday 20 November 2020

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts Wk11 Preview

The Week 11 match-up features a fascinating contest between two probable Hall of Fame candidates as Aaron Rodgers travels to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Philip Rivers and the Colts.

The reason this is a fascinating match-up not only due to Rodgers and his elite wide receiver Davante Adams hoping to maintain the lead in the NFC North ahead of the resurgent Minnesota Vikings; but they have to face the quietly good defence of the Colts - coordinated by Matt Eberflus a team that did well to quieten the Tennessee Titans offense including stifling Derrick Henry.

The Packers have suffered two losses against two very good defences in Tampa Bay and Minnesota Vikings; admittedly they did not have Aaron Jones for either game but he is back now yet the defeats to well schemed defences and those who can stop the run and then force you to throw deep on third and long means this will be a familiar test for the Packers to overcome, remember they struggled to put away the lame Jaguars last week at home a big heave to Valdes-Scantling with a huge YAC proving to be the difference.

The Colts should be feared or at least offered more respect; the hope of winning this game coupled with the Titans facing the Ravens means the option to open a lead in the division and the possibility of a homefield divisional game. Under Eberflus, the Colts incorporate a Tampa-2 4-3 front, four man pressure allowing his defence to play; this leads to the Colts pressuring on 24% of QB dropbacks (12th in the NFL), yet only blitzing 19.9% of the time (fourth lowest in the league).

The addition of DeForest Buckner has been paramount to this uptick in defence quality - Buckner has 16 quarterback hits already this season (behind only Aaron Donald and Chris Jones in the league for interior linemen). The Colts last year were 15th against the run, this year they are 7th best and 6th best when teams run up the middle to face the immovable object that is Buckner.

They had the Ravens on the run until the fumble by Jonathan Taylor resulting in the limp attempt by Rivers to stop the return touchdown; the momentum swung to Baltimore ultimately. However, the performance versus the Titans on a short week on the road showed a great deal of character amongst a still young group of players with Rivers admiral of proceedings. They allowed a total 294 total yards off of 60 plays. They average a 4.83 yards allowed a play, still a yard behind what their offense is allowing in 5.70yds.

Expect the Colts run defence to force Green Bay into third and long situations frequently helping their Cover-2 show up on those throws to Adams, MVS and the returning Alan Lazard.  This proficiency up front of the run defence allows the back 7 to make plays - they have defended or intercepted 21% of thrown passes (60-286), the highest coverage play rate in the NFL.

A fascinating intra-conference contest that will tell us a lot about both franchises with playoff aspirations.

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