The NFL starts making a bit more sense once teams have played a significant proportion of their games. Remember we are four weeks in and bar Washington and Carolina, all teams have played 25% of their games. That is a quota enough to start making clear who are contenders, who are also rans and who are looking for the draft next year already - looking at you New York G-men.
What did we learn from Week 4 - that the two best teams are the Rams and the Chiefs, they have two young quarterbacks who are ready to reach for that brass ring and make noise that needs to be heard. Whilst the Rams were thoroughly dominant in usurping the now treading water Vikings, the Chiefs had to come from behind to get a road win in Denver - a big step for Patrick Mahomes and company.
The false economy I alluded to last week was evident in the very poor performance by the Miami Dolphins who laid a huge egg on the road in New England, a team that still has question marks on Brady's consistency and yet could not muster a jab on them. The Chicago Bears are legitimate contenders now, partly due to a weird division where teams trip up at every occasion and also having a Top 3 defence led by Khalil Mack and Mitch Trubizky looking able to make plays and amazingly throw across his body.
Teams that are flailing for life remain the New York Giants who picked Saquon Barkley in a win-now draft pick but are struggling with Eli Manning getting any rhythm; the Pittsburgh Steelers are being let down by no consistency from Big Ben and a weak secondary; the Buffalo Bills could get nothing on the road at Green Bay unable to get pressure on an ailing Aaron Rodgers. In another two weeks it will be clear which teams are playoff bound and which are sucking for a higher draft pick.
Week 5 Predictions
Byes: Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Following Frank Reich's brain fart of a call to punt the ball away to Houston in overtime and allow them sufficient time to get into field goal range, the Colts look a little bit lost. They have not got a lot of talent on the roster and they are struggling to be taken seriously; although Nyheim Hines a fourth round pick at RB had himself a day and is probably a fantasy football pick. They travel to Boston to face New England who have Julian Edelman returning for his first game, expect targets a plenty underneath which could well open up Josh Gordon for big plays downfield. James White was big in this game and the Patriots showed some efficiency on offense for once this season.
Prediction: New England by 10
Sunday
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
The Titans are probably the most pleasant surprise finding themselves 3-1 despite starting Blaine Gabbert for one game but they are not scoring a lot but they tough out games sticking with the Super Bowl champs in overtime; their defence is excelling themselves and this is despite a plethora of injuries that seem to mount up for them; Mike Vrabel is getting the best of his charges. The Bills at home finally after what seems an eternity could provide some resistance but can they get any fluency against that D-line of the Titans.
Prediction: Titans by 3
Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
The Dolphins were woeful in Boston and a road trip to the red hot Bengals might fill them with dread as Andy Dalton the Red Rifle is throwing for 300+ a game and has weapons everywhere in AJ Green, Ross, Boyd and Bernard. The defence remains elite and will try and snaffle up any productivity the Fins can muster.
Prediction: Bengals by 8
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)
The Ravens had a good road win against Pittsburgh and this looks like a good battle between two stellar defences, the Browns swarm hunting the ball at every opportunity while the Ravens will try to win the line and force Mayfield to throw downfield where Eric Weddle will be waiting. Flacco is getting big plays when he needs them with John Brown outside.
Prediction: Ravens by 4
Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
The Packers are being very professional, winning games concisely and not outdoing themselves or forcing issues while Rodgers still recuperates on the fly. The defence is exceeding expectations and will fancy their chances against a team struggling for consistency.
Prediction: Packers by 7
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
This should be a great game, the perfect Chiefs have the league's most exciting QB prospect but they do not have a defence that can stop many teams. Blake Bortles has showed an improvement in game management and the ability to find his pacy receivers in open spaces may exploit this leaky Chiefs defence. This is definitely the biggest test of Mahomes career against the Jags.
Prediction: Chiefs by 6
Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)
The Broncos had a 10 point lead over the Chiefs and have shown a toughness not seen in recent years as Case Keenum does enough on offence; Von Miller must be licking his lips to attack Sam Darnold as his learning in the big boy league is getting harder with every week; talent wise they have not got enough game changers.
Prediction: Broncos by 7
Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
A match up between two teams with records they would not have been expecting, and the team that loses this matchup could be eliminated from play off consideration as they will be cast adrift at the bottom of their respective divisions. The Falcons have been firing on offence with Matt Ryan not turning the ball over and yet they have been outgunned by Drew Brees and Andy Dalton in the last two weeks; the inability to not get stops on defence may offer hope to the struggling Steelers but they themselves are poor on defence and lack a fire in them to stand toe to toe with rivals currently.
Prediction: Falcons by 6
New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)
The Panthers return from a bye week and are at home to the timid Giants - a team failing to land a punch of note in this season. Barkley is running great but the pressure on Eli Manning to perform at a high level is not coming to fruition; the ability on both sides of Panthers will be too strong for the Giants to even get close. This could be the most one-sided scoreline of the week.
Prediction: Panthers by 12
Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
The Chargers host the Raiders who got their first win last week in overtime against the Browns, though they got a few breaks to go their way. The Chargers are still exciting but they could do with Joey Bosa to return on defence and would it hurt to have a decent field goal kicker to stop leaving points on the field.
Prediction: Chargers by 7
Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
At the start of the season, this would have been earmarked as a great game now it is between two teams failing to meet expectations. The Eagles are suffering a hangover from Super Bowl celebrations, and the Vikings got hit by the LA Rams buzzsaw which can be forgiven as they are the best team in the league. This is a hard one to call though Cousins showed enough in defeat to warrant another chance to back him.
Prediction: Vikings by 3
Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
The winless Cardinals face the Jimmy G-less Niners, yet the 49ers were resilient on the road against the Chargers and CJ Beathard is a good set of hands in the offense and has weapons that are ready to stand up. The Cardinals could be picking one overall at this rate and be lucky to get 2 wins this season.
Prediction: 49ers by 8
Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Expect more of the same from the Rams against a defence that was ageing before Earl Thomas' season ending injury on Sunday. The Rams d-line will be able to get after Russell Wilson and this could get nasty early if the Rams explosive offence catches fire again.
Prediction: Rams by 10
Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)
This is Sunday night football and everything is bigger in Texas. The Cowboys overcame the Lions despite having 240 total yards from Ezekiel Elliott who is taking the team on his back and dragging them to unlikely victories. The Texans show plenty on offence although the inability to close out a Colts side they were leading 28-10 and nearly tie and/or lose the game is a worry for fans who must still have question marks over Bill O'Brien's tenure.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3
Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
The Saints are a very good side able of scoring quickly. From a 12-7 half time scoreline, before you blinked it was 33-18 due to the big playmaking ability of Alvin Kamara. Mark Ingram returns from his PED suspension which will give the Saints another dimension to their play. Can they get pressure to Alex Smith though in an under-rated Washington side, should be a good game.
Prediction: Saints by 7
Fantasy Football Advice
Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) - have mentioned this man before and his yardage and targets has gone up week upon week. This week away at the Jets expect him to get a red zone look for sure
Nyheim Hines (RB, IND) - a 4th round pick who had a huge day with 2 receiving touchdowns and with a weak backfield in terms of depth and TY Hilton got multiple injuries on a short week against a still unproven New England defence, Andrew Luck will need a safety blanket.
Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - back from a four week suspension, it will be intriguing to see what this does for Alvin Kamara's carries and numbers. Either way it will not stop New Orleans' offensive juggernaut.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) - he had three carries for 105 yards for two touchdowns. One carry was for 1 yard. He had a big day, at home to Baltimore might be a tough match-up but he will provide that option for Baker Mayfield.
Follow me on Twitter for NFL @JamieGarwood
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