NFL 2018 - Week 5 Preview

The NFL starts making a bit more sense once teams have played a significant proportion of their games. Remember we are four weeks in and bar Washington and Carolina, all teams have played 25% of their games. That is a quota enough to start making clear who are contenders, who are also rans and who are looking for the draft next year already - looking at you New York G-men.

What did we learn from Week 4 - that the two best teams are the Rams and the Chiefs, they have two young quarterbacks who are ready to reach for that brass ring and make noise that needs to be heard. Whilst the Rams were thoroughly dominant in usurping the now treading water Vikings, the Chiefs had to come from behind to get a road win in Denver - a big step for Patrick Mahomes and company.

The false economy I alluded to last week was evident in the very poor performance by the Miami Dolphins who laid a huge egg on the road in New England, a team that still has question marks on Brady's consistency and yet could not muster a jab on them. The Chicago Bears are legitimate contenders now, partly due to a weird division where teams trip up at every occasion and also having a Top 3 defence led by Khalil Mack and Mitch Trubizky looking able to make plays and amazingly throw across his body.

Teams that are flailing for life remain the New York Giants who picked Saquon Barkley in a win-now draft pick but are struggling with Eli Manning getting any rhythm; the Pittsburgh Steelers are being let down by no consistency from Big Ben and a weak secondary; the Buffalo Bills could get nothing on the road at Green Bay unable to get pressure on an ailing Aaron Rodgers. In another two weeks it will be clear which teams are playoff bound and which are sucking for a higher draft pick.

Week 5 Predictions
Byes: Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Following Frank Reich's brain fart of a call to punt the ball away to Houston in overtime and allow them sufficient time to get into field goal range, the Colts look a little bit lost. They have not got a lot of talent on the roster and they are struggling to be taken seriously; although Nyheim Hines a fourth round pick at RB had himself a day and is probably a fantasy football pick. They travel to Boston to face New England who have Julian Edelman returning for his first game, expect targets a plenty underneath which could well open up Josh Gordon for big plays downfield. James White was big in this game and the Patriots showed some efficiency on offense for once this season.
Prediction: New England by 10

Sunday
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
The Titans are probably the most pleasant surprise finding themselves 3-1 despite starting Blaine Gabbert for one game but they are not scoring a lot but they tough out games sticking with the Super Bowl champs in overtime; their defence is excelling themselves and this is despite a plethora of injuries that seem to mount up for them; Mike Vrabel is getting the best of his charges. The Bills at home finally after what seems an eternity could provide some resistance but can they get any fluency against that D-line of the Titans.
Prediction: Titans by 3

Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
The Dolphins were woeful in Boston and a road trip to the red hot Bengals might fill them with dread as Andy Dalton the Red Rifle is throwing for 300+ a game and has weapons everywhere in AJ Green, Ross, Boyd and Bernard. The defence remains elite and will try and snaffle up any productivity the Fins can muster.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)
The Ravens had a good road win against Pittsburgh and this looks like a good battle between two stellar defences, the Browns swarm hunting the ball at every opportunity while the Ravens will try to win the line and force Mayfield to throw downfield where Eric Weddle will be waiting. Flacco is getting big plays when he needs them with John Brown outside.
Prediction: Ravens by 4

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
The Packers are being very professional, winning games concisely and not outdoing themselves or forcing issues while Rodgers still recuperates on the fly. The defence is exceeding expectations and will fancy their chances against a team struggling for consistency.
Prediction: Packers by 7

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
This should be a great game, the perfect Chiefs have the league's most exciting QB prospect but they do not have a defence that can stop many teams. Blake Bortles has showed an improvement in game management and the ability to find his pacy receivers in open spaces may exploit this leaky Chiefs defence. This is definitely the biggest test of Mahomes career against the Jags.
Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)
The Broncos had a 10 point lead over the Chiefs and have shown a toughness not seen in recent years as Case Keenum does enough on offence; Von Miller must be licking his lips to attack Sam Darnold as his learning in the big boy league is getting harder with every week; talent wise they have not got enough game changers.
Prediction: Broncos by 7

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
A match up between two teams with records they would not have been expecting, and the team that loses this matchup could be eliminated from play off consideration as they will be cast adrift at the bottom of their respective divisions. The Falcons have been firing on offence with Matt Ryan not turning the ball over and yet they have been outgunned by Drew Brees and Andy Dalton in the last two weeks; the inability to not get stops on defence may offer hope to the struggling Steelers but they themselves are poor on defence and lack a fire in them to stand toe to toe with rivals currently.
Prediction: Falcons by 6

New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)
The Panthers return from a bye week and are at home to the timid Giants - a team failing to land a punch of note in this season. Barkley is running great but the pressure on Eli Manning to perform at a high level is not coming to fruition; the ability on both sides of Panthers will be too strong for the Giants to even get close. This could be the most one-sided scoreline of the week.
Prediction: Panthers by 12

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
The Chargers host the Raiders who got their first win last week in overtime against the Browns, though they got a few breaks to go their way. The Chargers are still exciting but they could do with Joey Bosa to return on defence and would it hurt to have a decent field goal kicker to stop leaving points on the field.
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
At the start of the season, this would have been earmarked as a great game now it is between two teams failing to meet expectations. The Eagles are suffering a hangover from Super Bowl celebrations, and the Vikings got hit by the LA Rams buzzsaw which can be forgiven as they are the best team in the league. This is a hard one to call though Cousins showed enough in defeat to warrant another chance to back him.
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
The winless Cardinals face the Jimmy G-less Niners, yet the 49ers were resilient on the road against the Chargers and CJ Beathard is a good set of hands in the offense and has weapons that are ready to stand up. The Cardinals could be picking one overall at this rate and be lucky to get 2 wins this season.
Prediction: 49ers by 8

Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Expect more of the same from the Rams against a defence that was ageing before Earl Thomas' season ending injury on Sunday. The Rams d-line will be able to get after Russell Wilson and this could get nasty early if the Rams explosive offence catches fire again.
Prediction: Rams by 10

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)
This is Sunday night football and everything is bigger in Texas. The Cowboys overcame the Lions despite having 240 total yards from Ezekiel Elliott who is taking the team on his back and dragging them to unlikely victories. The Texans show plenty on offence although the inability to close out a Colts side they were leading 28-10 and nearly tie and/or lose the game is a worry for fans who must still have question marks over Bill O'Brien's tenure.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3

Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
The Saints are a very good side able of scoring quickly. From a 12-7 half time scoreline, before you blinked it was 33-18 due to the big playmaking ability of Alvin Kamara. Mark Ingram returns from his PED suspension which will give the Saints another dimension to their play. Can they get pressure to Alex Smith though in an under-rated Washington side, should be a good game.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Fantasy Football Advice

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) - have mentioned this man before and his yardage and targets has gone up week upon week. This week away at the Jets expect him to get a red zone look for sure

Nyheim Hines (RB, IND) - a 4th round pick who had a huge day with 2 receiving touchdowns and with a weak backfield in terms of depth and TY Hilton got multiple injuries on a short week against a still unproven New England defence, Andrew Luck will need a safety blanket.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - back from a four week suspension, it will be intriguing to see what this does for Alvin Kamara's carries and numbers. Either way it will not stop New Orleans' offensive juggernaut.

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) - he had three carries for 105 yards for two touchdowns. One carry was for 1 yard. He had a big day, at home to Baltimore might be a tough match-up but he will provide that option for Baker Mayfield.

Follow me on Twitter for NFL @JamieGarwood

NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

After a personal break due to full time work commitments, it is nice to be back for the Wildcard Weekend with my preview of the four games involving the AFC and NFC 3 to 6 seeds with the chance to get one step closer to the Super Bowl in New Jersey this year.

There are some exciting match-ups and after the wild way Week 17 went down, the NFL must be hoping that these games do not fail to disappoint.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
It is interesting how the football schedule Gods work, as these two teams played each other only two weeks ago during the regular season.  On that occasion, the Colts were the road team and convincingly won 23-7 in Arrowhead as the Chiefs season slowed down to a stop once they could not overcome the Denver Broncos juggernaut and secured the No 5 seed.

Having opened the season 9-0, the Chiefs ended the season 2-5, however Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles both played really well.  The fault for that record falls into the lap of the Chiefs defence that succumbed to injury but hopefully the return of Justin Houston will be welcome news as the game plan of attacking the quarterback, and in this case, Andrew Luck will be key.

Luck has done well without his number one receiver Reggie Wayne lost to injury for the year.  They do however, have the one two punch of Donald Brown and Trent Richardson. Whilst Richardson's production has been questioned he has slowly become accustomed to his role and Brown has been making big plays to get Richardson the chance to punch it into the end zone of goal-line carries.

This could be the tightest of the contests over the weekend, but then you could say that about most of them. However, I feel the Chiefs will have enough in terms of game management and get more from their defence in this one off contest.
Prediction: Chiefs by 4

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This should be a great match-up as you have two high scoring offences going at it head to head.  Tellingly, the Saints are not the same team outdoors as they are in a dome game, they have a losing record (3-5) this season including losses at Seattle and Carolina.  The Eagles are similar to both of those teams, in that they have offences with both weapons at receiving and in the backfield, with the key weapon being in the backfield. 

The Eagles have LeSean McCoy the 2013 rushing leader in the NFL as well as DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper and Zach Ertz; also Nick Foles has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in his starts this season since replacing Michael Vick.

Foles has shown great leadership and game management, managing the ball, distributing it well and limiting turnovers helped by an O-line that has played all 16 games this season.

Drew Brees will keep any side in the game, and expect Sean Payton to have some trick plays up his sleeve for this testing encounter.  You just think the losing record of the Saints will be too much for even Brees to overcome, and the Eagles ended the season very well in both a professional and entertaining manner.
Prediction: Eagles by 6

San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
The Chargers must have been wishing for the late afternoon match up on Saturday, rather than the cross country early start on Sunday away to the Bengals.

The Chargers got in by the skin of their teeth in overtime versus a second string Chiefs side at home, helped by losses to Baltimore and Miami. The Chargers have Philip Rivers playing at a Pro Bowl level and Danny Woodhead has been a star for them as has Ryan Mathews playing at close to 100% capacity.

The Bengals have suffered their own injuries on defence to Geno Atkins and Leon Hall, however, the offence has been rolling along avoiding banana skins and making sure they won the AFC North convincingly in the end.

Andy Dalton is in his third consecutive postseason and should garner a playoff victory and a trip to Foxboro in this one.
Prediction: Bengals by 7

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
Aaron Rodgers rode in on his white horse and helped the Packers win the NFC North by winning in Chicago thanks to a last minute 47 yard hook up with Randall Cobb who had two for the day, and the weirdest touchdown ever.

The prize for the Packers is a home playoff game in the freezing cold of Lambeau Field with the visiting 49ers coming to Wisconsin.

Earlier in the season, in the first week in fact, the 49ers triumphed 34-28 over the Packers at Candlestick. That match saw Colin Kaepernick's first 400 yard plus game and the huge hit by Clay Matthews on Kaepernick when out of bounds.  On that day, Rodgers had little joy against the vaunted Niners defence which is still intact and no new injury news. 

Whilst it may be cold and windy, in terms of match-ups the 49ers have the game with Frank Gore running and the returning Michael Crabtree to add to Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. The Niners know though that all roads lead through Seattle.
Prediction: Niners by 3

Follow me at twitter @JamieGarwood and let me know your picks for this weekend.
Next weekend I predict it will be Bengals @ Patriots, Chiefs @ Broncos, Eagles @ Panthers, 49ers @ Seahawks (a week early, but not if New Orleans win)

NFL Week 14 review

What did we learn in Week 13?

Well the Seattle Seahawks have possibly punched their ticket to New York in February by securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while not totally tied up, should they go to San Francisco this weekend and win they will be all but their by owning tiebreaks over the 49ers, New Orleans and Carolina who they have all beaten this season thus far.

What Monday night's dominant performance versus the Saints showed was how difficult it is for visiting teams to function on the road in the raucous atmosphere of Seattle - we all know it is loud, but if a team cannot even get play calls right and have to change personnel constantly they do not give themselves much of a chance.  The loud atmosphere induces mistakes from veterans. 

That coupled with the fact that Russell Wilson is turning into a master orchestrator of this offence with options everywhere for him to distribute - run, play action, wide out, tight end, solo run; helped by the now named Legion of Boom defence which makes the great look bad as Brees did on Monday.

I think back to the draft of 2012 and all the talk about who will win a Super Bowl ring first between RG3 and Andrew Luck. Might Russell Wilson, the 3rd round pick who beat Matt Flynn for the starting job, beat them both to the vaunted status of Super Bowl champion.

Other things to consider: the Packers need Aaron Rodgers back asap, Geno Smith should not be dumped but needs to be benched to save his season, Denver will be the No 1 seed in the AFC and Houston could be the team with the No 1 pick in the 2014 draft.

Week 14 predictions

Texans (2-10) at Jaguars (3-9)
The Jags came up big on the road at Cleveland suddenly becoming a fun team to watch with running backs throwing TD passes.  The Texans were 14 points up on the Patriots but in a shoot-out Tom Brady beat Case Keenum.  Keenum is a decent QB but he needs some more time studying.  The Jaguars are oddly the favourite in this encounter and should win.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Colts (8-4) at Bengals (8-4)
The Bengals are still winning without setting the world alight and the same can be said for Andrew Luck. The key to this game will be how well the Bengals D can attack Luck who has taken many beatings this season, and will rely on Donald Brown who is favoured to Trent Richardson at running back. You can run on the Bengals though.
Prediction: Bengals by 4

Falcons (3-9) at Packers (5-6-1)
The Packers are treading water but still have a chance of making the playoffs; whilst Aaron Rodgers has not been cleared he has not been ruled out.  It may ultimately come down to the man himself, but they need him. They still have Lacy and some talent at wide out; however, the Falcons have been playing hard through these awful injuries. They still have Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, and Detroit showed up this poor secondary on Thanksgiving.
Prediction: Falcons by 3 (if Rodgers does not start)

Browns (4-8) at Patriots (9-3)
The Patriots have the chance to further secure the #2 seed behind the Broncos who look unstoppable. The Browns have come close to 6-6 but obviously have had their usual run of bad luck as always.  Brady looks to be back in the groove helped by the return of Gronkowski to full health and Shane Vereen in his best Kevin Faulk impression. Josh Gordon should have another 100+ yard receiving game
Prediction: Patriots by 8

Raiders (4-8) at Jets (5-7)
The Jets will not make the playoffs and you doubt that Rex Ryan will lie down and await the draft.  He benched Geno Smith again, the Raiders did some good things against Dallas on Thanksgiving with Matt McGloin showed some real poise under pressure helped by Rashad Jennings at running back.
Prediction: Raiders by 4 (and £50 to a mate of mine)

Lions (7-5) at Eagles (7-5)
Now Detroit have the lead of the NFC North, a home playoff game is there for the taking, they have to find a key to some consistency. However, Nick Foles rarely turns the ball over and he will be tested by that front 7 for sure.  Expect big numbers for everyone in terms of fantasy.
Prediction: Eagles by 3, over 80 points

Dolphins (6-6) at Steelers (5-7)
The Dolphins impressively went into the Meadowlands and shut down the Jets to get back to .500 and still have the most realistic chance of making the playoffs.  They can maintain that by beating the Steelers who had gained a second wind but seem to have run out of steam again due to injuries and ageing.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Bills (4-8) at Buccaneers (3-9)
This should actually be quite an entertaining game, but the Bills are somewhat like the Browns in that their record should be better whilst the Bucs have done better than people suspected they would.
Prediction: Bucs by 4

Chiefs (9-3) at Redskins (3-9)
Kansas City need to get back on the W bus after two defeats to the Broncos and a solitary shoot out loss to San Diego; luckily they face the woeful Redskins who still play a terribly sub-par RG3 who is not the man he was last season.
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Vikings (3-8-1) at Ravens (6-6)
The Ravens will win this one, but Adrian Peterson will be the beast he always is.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Titans (5-7) at Broncos (10-2)
The Broncos won two big games in three weeks sandwiching a close loss in New England. Whilst much is made of Manning's aversion to cold weather, the AFC must go through the Mile High to get to New York. After 4 TDs for Eric Decker last week, which WR will be the popular target, whilst that was merely a match-up decision, expect Welker/D.Thomas to get their fair share of targets this week.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Rams (5-7) at Cardinals (7-5)
The Cardinals still have ambitions of making the playoffs, but they require the 49ers to slip up and then beat them in the last weeks of the season.  The Cardinals are doing well with Carson Palmer who is finding Fitzgerald/Floyd frequently. That's a lot of f's
Prediction: Cardinals by 6

Giants (5-7) at Chargers (5-7)
The Chargers are another side with a false record, but they should beat the Giants whose momentum has waned and were helped by the Redskins faux pas on Sunday night.
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Seahawks (11-1) at 49ers (8-4)
The Seahawks put down a marker for the rest of the season, and they have the number of Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offence.  The 49ers have to find an answer to that D and also attempt to stop a rampant Russell Wilson. Good luck
Prediction: Seahawks by 7

Panthers (9-3) at Saints (9-3)
The Saints this week will be the team benefiting from the 2nd loudest home field. However, we know what the Saints can and will do at home. This is the test for these Carolina Panthers, who have avoided banana skins, overcome the Patriots and impressed generally. This is the game for them to make people stand up. The Saints found it difficult to stop Wilson's play action and run option with either himself or Marshawn Lynch. The Panthers have a great run attack whilst Greg Olsen is getting good numbers.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Cowboys (7-5) at Bears (6-6)
Josh McCown v Tony Romo; this should be a good one.  Alshon Jeffrey has had two 200+ yard receiving games this season, the Cowboys have a poor secondary so McCown may have some fun. But then so will Tony Romo, who is in greater sync with his receivers presently.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 6 Preview

Week 5 was an odd sort of week; more injuries by the dozens for vital players, very late kick-offs and surprises to be had.
For myself, I went 8-14 making me 30-15 over the three weeks of doing this preview post.

The injuries sustained including Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer who got tangled up on the touchline and ruptured his ACL and is done for the season.  The Browns still beat the Buffalo Bills thanks to a solid defensive effort and Brandon Weedon, who has the job back for the season. The Browns have a tough schedule ahead of it meaning the winning record will disappear, but you felt stronger for their chances with Hoyer under centre.

The surprises were the Indianapolis Colts holding up the Seattle Seahawks at home to give them their first defeat of the season 34-28; meaning the Colts have beaten both the formidable 49ers on the road and now the Seahawks at home.  Due to the continual woes of the Houston Texans and Matt 'Pick 6' Schaub - who threw his fourth consecutive return interception in as many games at San Francisco - the Colts will probably have a home playoff game which in the Lucas Oil stadium will be of benefit to this still young side led by the ever-impressive Andrew Luck.

The game of the week including 99 points as the Denver Broncos went into Cowboys Stadium and won 51-48 thanks to a Matt Prater field goal as time expired thanks to a Tony Romo interception late in the fourth quarter to set up great field position for the undefeated Broncos who are one of three undefeated teams remaining at 5-0 along with Kansas City and New Orleans.  Romo should not get the burden of responsibility as he, was in the ultimate shootout with Peyton Manning (who threw his first interception of the season), threw for 506 yards. The Cowboys defence needs to man up and make some plays and they should still win the NFC East which is just plain woeful.

New York Jets won on Monday Night Football in Atlanta 30-28 thanks to a Nick Folk field goal as time expired and led by a Geno Smith less than two minute drive to get into position.  The Falcons came up short again on a big stage, losing two prime time games in a week on home turf.  Matt Ryan has a 2-6 record on MNF; yet credit to Geno for making the plays needed. The Falcons though are now 1-4, four games behind the Saints and reportedly without Julio Jones who has broken a bone in his foot to coincide with the continual high ankle sprain for Roddy White and the absence of Steven Jackson.

Eli Manning threw some more interceptions, he has 12 through five games thus far.  At the moment the Giants have the No.1 pick in the 2014 draft. The Giants are officially worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars who scored the most points in one game thus far at the St. Louis Rams yet still lost 34-20.

Week 6 predictions (Byes for Atlanta and Miami)

Giants (0-5) at Bears (3-2)
The Thursday Night Football feast continues with a winless team getting prime time air time. Eli Manning has thrown so many interceptions and this week has faces a formidable defence who will be hungry and eager to bounce back from two straight defeats.  They will bring too much pressure to Eli and Jay Cutler just needs to protect the ball and target Alshon Jeffrey who had 200+ yards off of 10 receptions.
Prediction: Bears by 7

Saints (5-0) at Patriots (4-1)
After losing in a monsoon in Ohio, Tom Brady was visibly perturbed by the lack of options he had as the young receivers dropped three of his last eight passes when the ball was there to be caught. The 13-6 road defeat meant Brady snapped his 52 consecutive games with a touchdown.  Hopefully the return of Rob Gronkowski at home will elicit a huge crowd response; they will need it against a very good Saints side whose defence is playing as well as the Drew Brees offence.
Prediction: Saints by 6

Bengals (3-2) at Bills (2-3)
Andy Dalton won a game throwing for 212 yards. The Bengals defence who sacked Tom Brady four times face the hugely respected talent of Thad Lewis..wait, who the hell is Thad Lewis.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Lions (3-2) at Browns (3-2)
Cleveland's three game winning streak will be coming to an end this week due to the presence of Brandon Weedon in the dropback.  The Lions are a formidable defence whose front seven will be eager to target the 29 year old QB who holds on to the ball for too long.  Calvin Johnson will return also to prompt a big day for himself and Reggie Bush who had a quiet game last week.
Prediction: Lions by 10

Raiders (2-3) at Chiefs (5-0)
The Chiefs are 5-0 (3-0 v NFC East) and this is their first divisional match of the season against an improving Raiders led by Tyrelle Pryor.  The Chiefs are still making few mistakes and Jamaal Charles either running or catching the ball is having the sort of season that should be getting more recognition.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Panthers (1-3) at Vikings (1-3)
The Vikings return from their late summer holiday in London with a W, against the frustrating Carolina Panthers.  The Vikings if they play Matt Cassel will probably have too much for this Panthers team who cannot get the best out of Cam Newton.  It will probably be Cassel's last start as the Vikings acquired free agent Josh Freeman after he was cut from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Steelers (0-4) at NY Jets (3-2)
Unbelievably the Jets have a winning record and are one game behind the division leading Patriots who they might join at 4-2 if results go their way this week.  Expect J-E-T-S to hold up their end of the bargain; they are getting offensive options back on the field with Mike Goodson in the backfield, Stephen Hill making plays at wide out and Santonio Holmes possibly returning, as well as the defence holding firm.  Big Ben will be shrinking come Sunday night.
Prediction: Jets by 7

Eagles (2-3) at Bucs (0-4)
The Bucs come off a bye with Mike Glennon firmly placed in the quarterback position yet the defence is not making plays.  If Michael Vick remains injured Nick Foles could well step up into the position as he did in the 2nd half of the Giants game and get results.  From a fantasy perspective avoid LeSean McCoy, Foles is a passer and will seek out DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek alternatively.
Prediction: Eagles by 4

Packers (2-2) at Ravens (3-2)
Felt the Ravens were lucky to escape Miami with a W as the Dolphins did some good things including a pick six of the worst throw ever seen by Joe Flacco.  The Packers after a bye look ready to shake things up with a mixture of passing and Eddie Lacy back holding the rock.
Prediction: Packers by 4

Rams (2-3) at Texans (2-3)
Hmm, this is a tough one to call. Usually two bad or losing sides you look at the quarterback, yet the Texans vaunted defence is not making plays; perhaps signing the ageing Ed Reed was a mistake. Yet the Texans should follow the 49ers game plan to nullify the Rams and Sam Bradford.  If Arian Foster is back to his best then that is probably going to be the difference.
Prediction: Texans by 7

Jaguars (0-5) at Broncos (5-0)
The Broncos are 28 point favourites to win this game...get on it people
Prediction: Broncos by 27

Titans (3-2) at Seahawks (4-1)
The Seahawks lost their first game of the season but on the road.  Back at the boisterous home turf, the intimidation factor might be too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick, whilst the Titans wideouts will be too soft for the Seahawks secondary.
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

Cardinals (3-2) at 49ers (3-2)
After their two game skid, the 49ers look to have got their heads back on straight after the Aldon Smith incident.  The defence are making plays as always, Kaepernick is not making turnovers and Frank Gore keeps on running.  The Cardinals are doing some good things but mostly on the defensive side, yet that is in the secondary. The 49ers O-line will be too strong to protect Gore.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Redskins (1-3) at Cowboys (2-3)
Tony Romo played very well, remember that, and he was finding targets all over the field and yet because of playing Denver it became a throwing contest, so expect DeMarco Murray to have a big day against the weak Redskins defense.  Be interesting to see how RG3's knee looks after a bye.
Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Colts (4-1) at Chargers (2-3)
Philip Rivers is the biggest fake in all of football; he is playing well and yet he faces the Raiders and seemingly freezes. Admittedly he has not many options to throw or hand off to, whereas the Colts are playing with confidence. Interesting to see if Donald Brown gets the goal-line carries over Trent Richardson again for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 5 preview

In Week 4, I got off to the worst start by sheepishly predicting the Rams would upset the 49ers.  However, the Rams could not utilise some good pitch position and some woeful throwing by Sam Bradford led to a sizeable victory by the 49ers who sit 2-2 behind the dominant Seahawks. 
Elsewhere during the week I went 10-5 which adding to the previous week of 12-4, I am now 22-9 over two weeks.

I was even lucky enough to predict the correct margin of victory for the Arizona Cardinals over the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who again succumb to a late field goal.  The Redskins won on the road at Oakland after going 14-0 down.  There were two upsets as the Bills won at home against the Ravens and the Browns convincingly defeated the Bengals at home 17-6. 

There is now a three way tie atop the AFC North between those two teams and the Ravens with all three 2-2; so will the winner of that division be the only representative in the playoffs. The AFC is shaping up to have six from Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Texans and now add the Dolphins. 

I would have considered the Titans but the loss of Jake Locker to a hip strain for a supposed four weeks may disrupt their momentum at a crucial time, the replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the more capable back-ups, however, he needs to have good ball control and avoid turnovers, something Locker had done thus far.

This week's predictions (Byes this week for Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Washington, Tampa Bay)

Bills at Browns
Thursday night football usually means bad football, however with these two .500 teams we might be in for a surprise. The Browns are riding a wave of momentum thanks to the play of Brian Hoyer who is throwing for fun and is 2-0 since getting the starting gig.  The Bills probably have more offensive weapons yet there is an inconsistency to EJ Manuel's play along with injury concerns over running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Saints at Bears
Jay Cutler finally had his bad game and will want to bounce back in this shoot out against Drew Brees and the 4-0 Saints.  However, this is a match-up of two decent offences; yet player of the month Jimmy Graham is having a purple patch of form as well as some receiving yards for Darren Sproles.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Patriots at Bengals
The Patriots having won by 7 at Atlanta on Sunday night, face another tough road trip to the Bengals who are smarting after a shock loss to the Browns.  The Bengals will be hoping to pressure Brady like they did against Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago.  However, Brady showed signs of clicking with his young receiving core.  The Bengals will need to attack the run defence of the Pats without Vince Wilfork whose ruptured Achilles means he is done for the season.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Lions at Packers
The Packers come off a bye week and the Lions have a spring in their step.  If the Detroit defence and vaunted front seven can unsettle Rodgers like they did Cutler, and Rodgers has looked susceptible to pressure versus Bengals.  Yet you feel Rodgers has more weapons and the Packers need to stop a rampant Reggie Bush who is the real star of the Lions offence.
Prediction: Packers by 3

Chiefs at Titans
If Locker was fit the Titans would have been favourite for me, yet the Chiefs are playing solid mistake free football led by Alex Smith and the great play of Jamaal Charles who is rushing big and catching out of the backfield for big yards. Whilst fans of Dwayne Bowe will feel aggrieved at this, the defence of the Chiefs is making huge plays as Michael Vick and Eli Manning will attest to.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Seahawks at Colts
This should be a great one. The Colts are making noise and are being heard.  The Seahawks had a huge win on the road at Houston after being 20 points down to win in overtime led by a Richard Sherman pick six off Matt Schaub.  Andrew Luck will be targeted but also tempted to throw down field, and Trent Richardson might have a big day.  Another stat this week was that Marshawn Lynch has less yards per carry on the road than when at home. A tough one to predict.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

Jaguars at Rams
Not the greatest spectacle on paper,  a possibility for the Jaguars perhaps to score double-digits yet the Rams will require a response and will have the chance if they can get the run going.  Do not expect fireworks.
Prediction: Rams by 7

Ravens at Dolphins
This writer was not a fan of the Dolphins before the season, yet they have the potential to be a playoff team due to the consistency of Ryan Tannehill and this under-rated defence.  They will have another chance to make a statement such as their victory over the Falcons against Joe Flacco, who threw five (FIVE) interceptions versus the Bills last week. The Ravens also ran the ball only nine (NINE!!) times, a sheer waste of Ray Rice's ability and yet the Dolphins run defence is pretty good.
Prediciton: Dolphins by 5

Eagles at Giants
1-3 versus 0-4 in the awful NFC East. Eli Manning has no protection and the Chip Kelly offence could not keep up with Peyton Manning. This match will be decided by the play of LeSean McCoy against a run defence that is non-existent; pay note fantasy fans.
Prediction: Eagles by 7

Panthers at Cardinals
Carolina might have too much for the Cardinals who are plainly a hot and cold team.  The Panthers got a win before their bye week thanks to utilising the power of Cam Newton's prowess out of the pocket.  The Panthers might goad Carson Palmer to throw considering Rashard Mendenhall is not getting much joy with the rushing.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Broncos at Cowboys
Can the Cowboys come up with a plan to slow down the accurate and precision machine of Peyton Manning's led offence that averages 40+ points a game.  Manning has no interceptions and 16 touchdowns, whilst sharing the joy for touches with Welker, the Thomases and Eric Decker.  Romo can sling it but can he sling it enough versus these Broncos? Probably not.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Texans at 49ers
The Texans keep beating themselves and the 49ers are seemingly turning the corner thanks to getting back to the sort of defence that got them to the Super Bowl last year, and with Aldon Smith away from the team more players are coming to the party.  Schaub will probably not have enough and with Arian Foster not producing, the 49ers D will have too much.
Prediction: 49ers by 6

Chargers at Raiders
Terrelle Pryor returns for the Raiders following Matt Flynn stinking out the joint.  They go up against a resurgent Philip Rivers in this AFC West contest, along with Danny Woodhead becoming the focus of the offense. Most of these matchups I have predicted thus far have been picking the better defence over a weaker defence; in this case you pick the better quarterback.
Prediction: Chargers by 10

Jets at Falcons
The Falcons need to win this otherwise they will be an incredible four games behind the Saints if they beat the Bears. The Falcons came close against a good Patriots side, but the comeback was too late.  Whilst the Jets defence has turned some heads you do wonder if they will be able to contain Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, who had a career day on Sunday. Career day at the age of 37, yeah its about time.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

My thanks to the boys at DundeeNFL who hosted me as we talked the Week 4 action, follow this link to the podcast

NFL Week 4 preview

Welcome back readers

Last week in Week 3 I predicted 12 correct victors in the NFL picking home wins for the Dolphins (v Falcons), Panthers (v Giants) and Titans (v Chargers) as well as picking the Jets and Ravens in close encounters.  Much like everyone else I incorrectly selected the Packers and 49ers over the Bengals and Colts respectively. Regretfully I expected the Eagles to bounce back at home versus Andy Reid and his chefs, sorry Chiefs. 

The Eagles are really cocking up by playing too quickly and not giving their underappreciated defence not enough time to recuperate.  They allowed a competent QB in Alex Smith enough time to keep the ball and churn time off the clock culminating in a nine-minute TD drive in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and did not do many mistakes and got some big time stops and sacks from their defensive line.  The Chiefs may be good enough for a play-off spot if this continues, although they still have to play in their division.

In Week 4, two teams have byes the Packers (1-2) and the Panthers (1-2). The Packers need to get some people fit on offense and the Panthers will feel good following their shut out of the belittled Giants.

49ers at Rams
The Rams beat and drew with the 49ers last year, Jeff Fisher seemingly figuring out the read option system and stopping Kaepernick.  This is not a bad time to play the Niners who have lost two games consecutively and looked very sub-par in both defeats.  Defences have seemingly figured out Kaepernick and they have few weapons on offense.  The Rams have a still under-rated defence and Sam Bradford can expose some secondary worries by stretching the field with Chris Givens.
Prediction: Rams by 3

Ravens at Bills
EJ Manuel looked like the rookie he is at the Jets last week.  The Ravens won without Ray Rice but have a capable replacement in Bernard Pierce available, expect the Ravens to win this one easily but then we said that about the 49ers versus the Colts last week.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Bengals at Browns
Brian Hoyer is not the second coming, but it is a start for Cleveland who traded Trent Richardson to the Colts last week.  Hoyer won his second professional start and hooked up well with Josh Gordon (another trade piece), although please note this was against the woeful Minnesota Vikings who travel to Wembley this week.  The Bengals resolve after taking a 14 point lead but then going 16 point behind to the Packers was most impressive, and that defence is making plays time and time again.  If they can make Aaron Rodgers look more journeyman, what will they do to Hoyer.
Prediction: Bengals by 10

Bears at Lions
A NFC North smash mouth encounter.  Hopefully the Lions will have Reggie Bush back as this will be vital to their outcome of this tie. The Bears defence is back to its illustrious best with return TDs for Major Wright and Julius Peppers; and Jay Cutler is playing solid with Matt Forte getting good numbers also.  This is a battle of two stud recievers to, Brandon Marshall v Calvin Johnson.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Giants at Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll and making mistake-free football.  Alex Smith secures the ball better than anyone, Jamaal Charles is getting runs and passes.  The D-line suffocated Michael Vick last week, sacking him six times.  Eli Manning has been sacked nearly a dozen times already and intercepted nearly the same number; the Chiefs should overpower this transitional Giants team
Prediction: Chiefs by 9

Cardinals at Buccaneers
The word is that rookie Mike Glennon is going to get the start with the Bucs finally fed up with Josh Freeman.  This is unfair of Freeman, as it was not his two defensive mistakes in the first two games to leave them winless.  The Cardinals also have a good defence and the return of Rashard Mendenhall will pay dividends in this one.
Prediction: Cardinals by 3

Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are not a dumb team, and it is doubtful they would succumb to the dumb Jaguars on the road.  They now have the one-two punch of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw to compliment Andrew Luck's peerless throwing.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Seahawks at Texans
Seattle did well to get through the banana skin of the Jaguars last week, but a lot of starters sat the fourth quarter.  This will definitely be more tricky, with the Texans offensive options.  However, it comes down to defences and the Seahawks will flat out bully DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson, if his concussion clears up.
Prediction: Seahawks by 4

Steelers at Vikings (at Wembley Stadium)
Two 0-3 teams headline the first International Series game at Wembley Stadium.  The Steelers did show some life on offence in the defeat to the Bears on Sunday night, and the Vikings have been scoring points but not winning games.  Rushers have had joy versus the Steelers so if AP can get his wheels going he could be the difference maker on this occasion as he has been so many times before. But do not expect a classic
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Jets at Titans
The Titans defence has impressed many, and Geno Smith underthrows and forces some throws at times. Jake Locker like Alex Smith is making few mistakes and Chris Johnson is due a big rushing day, perhaps against the weakest part of the Jets defence.
Prediction: Titans by 5

Redskins at Raiders
RG3 showed signs of life in the loss to the Lions last week.  He threw better and stronger off his legs and it looks like his legs are getting back to match sharpness.  The Raiders had some joy versus the Broncos scoring three touchdowns but Darren McFadden rushed for only 9 yards total. The Redskins may have found the game to turn the corner.
Prediction: Redskins by 3

Eagles at Broncos
In this game, you will see the difference between a high tempo offence and a high powered offence.  Peyton Manning is throwing touchdowns for fun, spreading the love from game to game. Eric Decker had 133 receiving yards and one TD reception coupled with one for Wes Welker and DeMaryius Thomas each.  The Eagles need to even out the time of possession otherwise Manning will control the clock and score at will, which is what he is doing anyway.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Cowboys at Chargers
Would like to think the Chargers can win this one, but they are suffering injuries at inopportune times.  The Cowboys, however, are doing okay with Des Bryant looking to fulfil that immense potential he contains and the defence doing okay.
Prediction: Cowboys by 6

Patriots at Falcons
This is a huge encounter for both teams.  The Patriots will want to maintain the 100% record in case the Dolphins lose on Monday night and the Falcons dare not fall three games behind the Saints should they triumph versus the Dolphins.  Two big offences go head to head.  Tom Brady looked to have clicked with his receivers better this week and there is a certain tight end, Rob Gronkowski, expected to start at last this week and the defence of the Patriots has been a nuisance all season thus far.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Dolphins at Saints
A great match up for MNF with the impressive Dolphins playing the seemingly restored Saints. Both teams are 3-0 so someone is going to go home unhappy.  The Saints have the better defence plus that raucous home crowd as their 12th man; although they need to get pressure to Ryan Tannehill who continues to prove the doubters wrong week on week.
Prediction: Saints by 4

Finally, can I extend a pleasant thank you to the Americarnage (@Americarnage) crew who gave me a very surprising plug for my blog on their latest podcast.  Many thanks Gents and I look forward to meeting up with you all soon.

Follow me @JamieGarwood

In Praise of...Americarnage

Americarnage is one of the most entertaining podcasts across the world wide web, a show that covers all of the American sports - NFL, NBA, College Football, NHL - and also films, politics and all things American in a show that runs for approximately one hour recorded on a weekly basis.

Starring experienced broadcasters Nat Coombs (host of C4's NFL coverage) as the anchor of the piece, with help from Mike Carlson, ubiquitous American sports specialist, with the laughs coming from 'Hollywood' Dan Louw, a stand-up comedian and produced by Harry Holgate, one of the best dial twisters in the world of audio recording.  I was granted the opportunity to sit in on a recording of the latest episode this past Tuesday (16th October) before it is uploaded onto the Americarnage website on Wednesday (www.americarnage.co.uk).

I arrive at the Royal National Institute for the Blind (RNIB) recording studio in Camden Town on a mild Tuesday early evening, where I meet producer, Harry Holgate, who tells me I am the first to arrive of the cast.  After offering me a coffee, Harry shows me a tour through the seven studio layout where.Americarnage will be recorded.  The show pay studio rates for the studio time, it is a freelance production under the umbrella of Nat Coombs' MeMo Interactive, with sponsorship from popular American BBQ restaurant, where customers can email the show weekly with many answered on the show.

My first question is how did the podcast originate, 'It was really an idea of Dan's to do a show about American sports, and he wanted to do a project with Nat for sometime having worked together on Channel 5 some years before.  I had gone to university with Dan, so I came on board and Nat bought Carlson to the party.  We did a pilot in December 2010, which was good and after a few weeks we started recording weekly in January 2011 and bar a few weeks off here and there for one reason or another we have done an episode every week.'

Do you have a big following? 'We are helped by Carlson having a significant amount of followers due to his work, and people like our NFL coverage which is the big draw.  We do better when the NFL season is on.' When listening the feel is very independent and off the cuff, 'And that was something we strife for, in fact ESPN America wanted to buy us out but we felt that our content would be impeded and we like the feel of our identity.'

The quality of the show is undisputable, it was nominated for Best Sports Podcast in the 2011 Podcast Awards and require more nominations for this year's awards.  Whilst they do not have the money or reach of any ESPN podcasts (Football Today, Fantasy Football), the quality and knowledge expressed in the show in regards to the sports is as good.

Yet the quality of the show are the slight imperfections on display; the on the hoof feel gives the sense that it is done in one take (which it is - with Harry editing out swear words and any sensitive material when listening back) and the fact that the host is an experienced television/radio broadcaster allows him to handle any hot topics or the possibility of Hollywood making him corpse.  Louw has quite a wit, which is sometimes lost on Carlson on numerous episodes.

With Carlson off this week, the guest is David Whitney (stand-up comedian) whose knowledge of NFL is as strong as any die hard fan, and in spite of his absence Carlson has still produced a 60 second NFL round-up of the week's action - an example of how much the show means to him. In an email I ask Carlson about the show, 'the biggest problem is reach, on C4 we can reach a hundred thousand people, many of whom aren't fans. We're always looking for ways to reach potential audience; we're better on sports than any humour site, and funnier than most sports sites.'

The strength is in the NFL coverage, where the three guys note how poor the AFC is whilst also reminding us how old Brandon Weeden is - this chemistry between seriousness and light heartedness is another facet of the show's popularity.  Instead of a strict by the book professionalism in ESPN shows, this laugh at each other, laugh at yourself mentality and the wonderful air of self-deprecation about such topics ranging from the pronunciation of croissants, Jimmy Saville and antique cottages.  It is an intelligent type of comedy where like Family Guy has a scattergun approach to humour - in this week's episode Louw/Whitney gained three minutes of material from the premise of new movie Looper.

If you have not listened to the show please attempt to do so at www.americarnage.co.uk and follow the show and stars on twitter: @Americarnage @NatCoombs @DanLouw

David Whitney's homepage is www.davidwhitney.org and his twitter handle is @dwhitters