Final Four 2017 Breakdown

March Madness reaches its crescendo this weekend. 68 teams started on the road to Phoenix, and now four remain. Of these four we have two number one seeds, two surprises and yet three teams competing in their first Final Four ever and one blue blood, blue chip program.

In this piece I will be breaking down the Final Four teams and the match ups albeit in brief, but if you like what you are reading, please comment and let me know.

On Saturday night we have the two semi-final matchups; South Carolina (7) v Gonzaga (1) followed by Oregon (3) v North Carolina (1).

South Carolina Gamecocks

(SEC, 26-10)

The lowest ranked seed and the best story of the tournament, an embattled head coach whose behaviour on the sidelines sometimes draws more headlines than his teams play. Frank Martin led the Gamecocks to the tournament on a bad run of only three wins in their last 9 games, the last two being defeats to Ole Miss and Alabama - two teams who did not make the tournament.

However, Martin can coach defence and in the same vein of Rick Pitino's Louisville national title winning side of recent years, defence can get you further in a single-elimination format. They have defeated Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida, all teams with powerful offences that they have slowed down by being physical. Can they slow down Gonzaga who are as big and as powerful in a good match-up contest. Their own offensive efficiency despite Sindarius Thornwell's heroics might mean this is one game too far; yet they have showed that there is more to the SEC than just John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

(WCC, 36-1)

The King of the mid-majors finally made the Final Four after numerous falls following numerous seedings as No.1. This year, Mark Few has garnered his best team full of versatility owing to the nine-man rotation Few employs. Led by Polish senior guard Przemek Karnowski and junior guard Nigel Williams-Ross; the Bulldogs can mix it up defensively in a low scoring game such as the press versus West Virginia or dominant with their size as they did against Xavier in that 24 point victory in the Elite 8.

The thing to fear of the Bulldogs is the stage itself, this is the first time these players would have played in a venue this size and the same applies to Few also. This is a stage Few and his team were made for, now he has to fulfil all the promise and handle the expectation, firstly to overcome the stellar South Carolina defence then who knows.

Oregon Ducks

(Pac-12, 33-5)

These mighty Ducks have had to overcome the most adversity following the loss of Chris Boucher to an ACL injury before the tournament started, and yet the play of three guys Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell have taken turns to dominant games. Against Kansas they dominated the paint owing to Bell's size and favourable matchup versus the Jayhawks smaller guards; this might not happen against the North Carolina Tar Heels who won the battle of the paint versus Kentucky.

The Ducks can have offensive nights and can stop teams but can they do so against the Tar Heels who have modified their tempo from game to game, and who matchup well in the paint with them.

North Carolina Tar Heels

(ACC, 31-7)

The Tar Heels have been here before, Roy Williams has been here before. They are probably the favourites to win it all, and it is the versatility of their line up and potential to alter their game to the opponent. Against Kentucky they took Justin Jackson and his offensive potential and instead told him to go man-to-man on Malik Monk prompting Jackson to shoot less and getting more points from Theo Pinson and game-winner Luke Maye. 

The Tar Heels have other game changers in Kennedy Meeks and Stilman White, while questions remain over the full fitness of Joel Berry who has an ankle injury.  The Tar Heels unlike the other teams in the field, have more answers than questions hanging over them. If Jackson can be unleashed from defensive duties will the Ducks be able to handle a team that can easily score 70+, can the Ducks match that.

Final Four predictions

Gonzaga over South Carolina; North Carolina over Oregon

Title match

North Carolina defeat Gonzaga in a classic and Roy Williams is cutting down the nets.

NCAA 2016 Final Four Breakdown

The 2016 NCAA College Basketball Tournament reaches its dizzy crescendo this weekend in Houston where the final four and best remaining College teams face off to crown the Champion in College Hoops.

Following a mad opening weekend where more upsets occurred than normal, and then a fairly flat second weekend of Sweet 16 and Elite 8 action owing to the shocks in the first weekend, we are left with four teams. One Number One seed remains in North Carolina, two number twos in Oklahoma and Villanova and one underdog in No. 10 Syracuse.

North Carolina (1) v Syracuse (10)

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Syracuse have profited from having winnable games throughout the tournament and profiting from teams being eliminated. They beat Dayton by 19 in the first round, they then avoided Michigan State by defeating their victors Middle Tennessee by 25. Then they got two tough games in Gonzaga (will they ever reach their potential) by 3 before defeating Virginia by a convincing margin of 6. Virginia could not contend with the 2-3 zone of Cuse, and while they may be able to slow down North Carolina's offensive production, Virginia scored the most points of anyone against Syracuse in the tournament - 62.

North Carolina meanwhile have been the most under-the-radar No.1 seed in recent memory, every game has been won by double digits, the closest being 14 over Notre Dame in the elite eight and 15 over Indiana two days before.  The Tar Heels have two very good players and probably first round NBA players in Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, yet they defend hard also making it difficult for teams to get shots off and disrupt their rhythm.

In that respect, Syracuse will have to score 80 plus points to have a chance of causing an upset. You doubt this will be likely for the Orange to succeed and Roy Williams will be heading for another title game.

Oklahoma (2) v Villanova (2)

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In a much tighter affair, the two number two seeds face off and this game revolves around one player - Buddy Hield. Can Hield maintain his form of avergaing 29.3ppg in the tournament and can the Wildcats stifling defence have an answer to him.  The key will be to stop him getting a shot from the perimeter or the three point line. Hield can score at will seemingly, but Villanova so renowned for their defence have found some shooting shoes in previous rounds before stopping Kansas in the last round.

Time for Buddy to shine

In a coin flip of a game in this instance, you tend to go with the team that has the better player(s) and in this game you take Buddy. In recent years, the team that won the tournament had that tournment's MVP - from Conneticut's Kemba Walker and Shabazz Napier to Kentucky's Anthony Davis.  The time has come for Buddy to shine.

In the final, you will see North Carolina Tar Heels v Oklahoma Sooners; will that be one game too many for Buddy or will UNC yield to Hield?

Sweet 16 Preview: ACC dominance

After the first mad weekend of March Madness, where all teams play two games in three days over the second and third round before the semi-finals of the regions that we call the Sweet 16.  Numerous things occur including shocks and surprises aplenty culminating in the removal of 48 teams since Thursday.  Here are my thoughts along with the prediction of the Sweet 16

Izzo and Pitino stand firm
Following regular season campaigns that brought all manner of inconsistency, it is telling that some teams can be relied upon come the tournament when parity is established by only playing what is in front of you.  In terms of Michigan State who had a problem with depth and talent, come the tournament they have a coach in Tom Izzo who now has more Sweet 16 appearances than first weekend eliminations. 

Tom Izzo - Michigan State

Izzo out-coached Virginia's Tony Bennett for the second season in succession schooling them in a 60-54 victory helped by a breakout by Travis Trice who had 23 points as they held the Cavaliers to under 30% shooting.  Michigan now play Oklahoma, for the right to play either Louisville or NC State; again this is a tough one to call, but as Rick Pitino has showed, he is capable of fitting in a system that benefits the nervy tension of tournament play as they stifle offenses and allow their own dynamic players such as Montrezl Harrell to be explosive in transition.

Can we play you every year?
Rock Chalk Wichita Shock. Kansas Jayhawks are the big noise in Kansas, the blue chip program but it shares a state with Wichita State Shockers who have now had the better tournament resume than the Jayhawks in the last three years now.  The Shockers keep asking to play Kansas year in, year out in a non-conference match that will help both programs. Kansas refuse and Wichita State feel disrespected and feel Kansas are scared to play them on the road or at a neutral site.  Sunday in the third round in Omaha held court for this in-state battle and the Shockers swept aside Bill Self's side in a convincing 78-65 win.  They now play Notre Dame on Friday with the prospect of facing Kentucky in the regional final.

Ron Baker - Wichita State

The Shockers are a tight unit who hustle and can score from deep led by Ron Baker in points and helped by Fred VanVleet and Tekele Cotton.  The defeat makes sure that Kansas will likely not play Wichita State again until they absolutely need to again.  As for Kansas, they need to come back next year - hopefully reloaded with talent as no-one looks likely to leave for the NBA - but return with a scorer possibly Clint Alexander who was suspended for academic reasons.

Duke have the answer
Watching Duke's dominant performance over San Diego State on Sunday, their play showed the answer to possibly to defeating the Kentucky Wildcats who they can only meet in the National Championship.  That is my selection for the title game and whilst I think Kentucky are too battle hardened for this tournament, perhaps Duke remain the best team to combat the Wildcats procession to historical perfection.
In Jahlil Okafor they have one of the best three players in the nation, his size and scoring prowess can combat Towns and Cauley-Stein in the paint.

Justice Winslow - Duke

 Yet it was the tempo of Duke's play in transition that made me stand up and take notice; led by Tyus Jones dishing it out to Quinn Cook and sometimes you will get a breakout game like you had from Justice Winslow (26pts, 6rbs) did on Sunday to help matters.  Duke will be happy with the match up versus Utah this weekend and then probably Gonzaga who have been impressive thus far, but you get the sense that Duke are aware of the possibility of their own run to the Final Four.

ACC is the best conference
All regular season it was touted that the Big 12 was the best conference in the nation due to the possibility of 8 teams - only 7 got selected - making the dance, yet that was due to the fact that so many teams beat each other that no team separated itself from the rest as Wisconsin did in the Big 10.  The first day eliminations of Baylor, Texas and Iowa State left the Big 12 sheepish at best, and now the presence of five ACC teams in the sweet 16 (ND, NC, LOU, NC State, Duke) means that the argument is dead, the ACC is best league because it is the toughest game and makes players ready for the tournament due to the high intensity and close matches they experience in the regular season.

Sweet 16 predictions (selection in bold)
Kentucky v West Virginia                                   NC State v Louisville
Notre Dame v Wichita State                              Oklahoma v Michigan State
Wisconsin v North Carolina                               Duke v Utah
Xavier v Arizona                                                UCLA v Gonzaga

Elite 8:
Kentucky v Notre Dame - Wisconsin v Arizona - Louisville v Michigan State - Duke v Gonzaga

That leaves your NextToTheAisle Final Four of Kentucky v Wisconsin and Louisville v Duke
What an amazing line-up of talent, teams and legendary coaches going head to head in Indianapolis. The Louisville-Michigan State match-up should it materialise is a toss-up and too close to call. For me it remains there for Kentucky to lose, although the possible matches versus the Fighting Irish and Badgers will be as true a test as they have faced all season.

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How to beat Kentucky Wildcats?

John Calipari is at it again. He has assembled another great group of talented young men in Lexington who although merely stopping by en route to the NBA, yet this group in his much discussed platoon system have the potential to go 40-0 in the season, a feat never accomplished in NCAA history.

However, in their first game of conference play in the SEC at home in the Rupp Arena against Ole Miss, the Wildcats got a scare only overcoming them 89-86 in the dying moments when Ole Miss' best player Stefan Moody who had 25 points succumb to cramp and fatigue.

In part Moody fell victim to the style of game that nearly garnered the upset but will actually serve as a blueprint for the rest of the SEC to get that victory that will stutter history and possibly ensure a tournament appearance with such a big win on any resume.

The Rebels played hard in terms of tempo and attacking the big defenders of Kentucky. By having small guards and players who short in stature like Jarvis Summers but big in game meant that big forwards like Aaron Harrison (6' 8") found it difficult to defend against quickness.  Kentucky conceded the most points in one game and that was also helped by Ole Miss scoring 9 3-pointers, and yet even those 27 points were not enough.

 

So which teams in the SEC can score quick, score a lot and convert 3-pointers as well as defend against those bigs in the paint and on the perimeter.  The Wildcats are not exceptional from the field in terms of FG percentage nor from behind the arc.  They are not as outstanding nor formidable as the Kentucky aide led by Anthony Davis that won the National Championship and perhaps this close victory at home will galvanise the team and realise how big that bullseye is on their chest. As the big dog in the SEC, they can expect to get everyone's best shot, so long as it's taken quickly and from downtown.

One team who may have the answer could be the Arkansas Razorbacks, a team currently 12-2 (both losses came on the road at Iowa State and Clemson - two teams from stronger conferences) and yet they have the highest scoring backcourt in forward Bobby Portis and guard Michael Qualls.

 

Sophomore Portis shows great touch for a 6' 11" guy in the paint off of both hands averaging 17.1 ppg and 7.6 rebounds whilst Junior Qualls offers the dynamism on offence and the hounding on defence around the perimeter averaging 15.5 ppg and 5.3 rpg.

As a team they are ranked 8th in the nation in points per game (84.1) and 3rd in assists (18.4) have a high free throw percentage and are decent from distance. Kentucky average 76.3 points per game but are big in the rebound statistics 41.4 in comparison to Arkansas' 38.1, that is in part due to the length of the team.  The only downside is they have to go to Kentucky on 28th February and also on the road to these Ole Miss Rebels on Valentines Day.

The SEC may have a king of the castle but there are sure going to be some more bumpy roads for Kentucky along the way to their supposed place in the Final Four with tricky road trips to Alabama, Florida and LSU to contend with.  If an athletic opponent can surprise and attack an up tempo game against these Wildcats then it might not be Kentucky purring during conference play.