NFL 2015 Week 4 Preview

Week 3 was a much better instance of picking with yours truly going for a 12-4 in the week, raising me to 26-22 for the season. The few games I got wrong were close games including my upset special of Tennessee at home to the Colts who were trailing with 8 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before Andrew Clutch came to the fore again to get the 35-33 victory on the road and avoid going 0-3 to start the season.  As for Tennessee, following the resounding opening day victory they seem to be stifled on offense not helped by the fact that Mariota is having to throw more than necessary and the lack of running back quality is clearly affecting their production.

Other oversights included the Oakland Raiders winning their first back to back games since 2012 on the road at Cleveland; Derek Carr again threw for over 300 yards with rookie Amari Cooper again receiving for over 100 yards for the second consecutive game. Cooper is seemingly tying up the Rookie of the Year contest before the end of week 6.  Cooper has two consecutive 100+ yardage games in his rookie season, do you know none of Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown or AJ Green can lay claim to that stat in their rookie season.  Something is happening in the Bay Area, and it is good to see.

Elsewhere, some teams remain winless and frankly pitiful.  The Saints, Bears, Lions are all winless and in the case of Chicago planning for next season already with the release of Jared Allen to the Carolina Panthers; a great additon for the Panthers in that QB heavy division.  Yet the most surprising loss of the weekend, although I picked correctly, was the way the Buffalo Bills dismantled the Miami Dolphins 41-14 on the road with such ease.  Miami were meant to be a main challenger versus the New England Patriots, this result means the Bills will lay claim to that right for this season while the Dolphins defence which includes such Pro Bowlers as Suh, Cameron Wake and Brent Grimes looked unidentifiable from the defence we expected.

Week 4 is the first week to have bye weeks, with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans having a week off. So while Brady goes dancing at his sister's wedding and Mariota goes back to Hawaii. Here are my predictions:

Predictions

BALTIMORE @ Pittsburgh

NY JETS @ Miami 

(at Wembley Stadium)

NY Giants @ BUFFALO

CAROLINA @ Tampa Bay 

OAKLAND @ Chicago

Kansas City @ CINCINNATI

Houston @ ATLANTA

Jacksonville @ INDIANAPOLIS

PHILADELPHIA @ Washington

Cleveland @ SAN DIEGO

Minnesota @ DENVER

GREEN BAY @ San Francisco

St. Louis @ ARIZONA

Dallas @ NEW ORLEANS

Detroit @ SEATTLE

Match of the Week

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New York Jets (2-1) versus Miami Dolphins (1-2)



So on paper not one to really write home about, but the fact that this game is happening in my near hometown is reason enought to shout about it. The first of three International Series games taking place at Wembley Stadium this year sees for the first time an actual divisional game taking place on overseas soil. This is a huge filip for the International reach of the game that an AFC East rivalry game is taking place in London, as so often they are mis-matches and unfair contests such as the recent games involving Jacksonville and when the Patriots decimated the St. Louis Rams.  However, for once we could have a close contest as both teams have to contend with travelling over the Atlantic and both will be wanting to regain momentum following tough home defeats last Sunday.

The Dolphins as mentioned above were pulverised by the rampant Buffalo Bills and gave up 41 points at home.  There offence has struggled to click and but for a Jarvis Landry punt return in week 1 versus Washington they could be 0-3 coming into Wembley.  The offence much like the defence is lacking an identity and leadership, a lot was expected of Tannehill but will he be able to cope with another mean defence in the Jets.

Revis will be hunting Tannehill on Sunday

The Jets lost at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17, having gone 24-0 down in the first half the comeback was too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick to create, yet they have better offensive options with a nice balance of run - Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell - and receiving options in Eric Decker and if fit, Brandon Marshall.  The Jets seem to be a better balanced side on paper and that will probably be the case on the Wembley turf with the Jets flying back to their bye week victorious by 10 points.

Upset of the Week

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

While this may not be much of a reach, both teams are dealing with a series of crucial injuries to star players. The Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant until Week 9 or 10 at the earliest. Whilst the Saints missed Drew Brees last week with a rotator cuff injury. 

Luke McCown did a fairly decent job completing 31 of his 38 passes last week in the defeat to Carolina, but it is the lack of running attack that is mystifying for the Saints whose wide receiver depth is weak. If the Saints can stop the run attack of Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar out of the backfield. A lot rests on Brees being fit to start if he does you can see the team wanting to galvanise the franchise to a first home win in 7 attempts.

Dallas meanwhile showed a great deal of versatility in their play last week in their defeat to Atlanta. Brandon Weedon did a nice job in the first quarter but after gaining the upper hand they went to the run game and pretty much restricted Weedon's options downfield. Admittedly they faced an improving Falcons defence and they will not face a wide receiver in the calibre of Julio Jones this Sunday; but perhaps this is a perfect storm for the Saints to get that first win of the season. Expect a lot of points in the Big Easy.

Fantasy Advice

- Stick with Charles Clay (Buffalo) as a fill for the resting Gronk.

- Sam Bradford (Philadelphia) might finally be turning the corner for the Eagles.

- Lance Dunbar (Dallas) can rush but also gets plenty of catches

- Ty Henderson (Green Bay) seems to be the 3rd WR now for Packers; good match up versus the 49ers

- If you have Marshawn Lynch (Seattle) bench him for this week; don't risk that hamstring as the Seahawks won't versus Detroit at home.

Check out my other previews:

Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3

and my feature piece on the Denver Broncos

NFL 2012 - Week 7 picks

After a brutal Pigskin Pick'em for me last week, where I scored a record low of 5 picks. I am looking to come back fighting this week - this time I am going to take note of trends such as teams returning off the bye, getting of the Arizona bus and selling the Steelers on the road.

On a bye this week: Atlanta, Denver, Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Diego

Week 7 picks
Seattle @ San Francisco - 49ers win
The 49ers will be amped for this game, and wanting to put the record straight after the flat-out embarrassing beat down laid on to them by the Giants where they lost 27-3, after having recording 600 yards the previous week.  They scored single digits last week, in a week the Raiders went to the undefeated Falcons and the Browns won their first game. Yes Seattle have been gritty at home, but in this hostile environment expect the 49ers to take care of business.

Tennessee @ Buffalo - Bills win
The Bills somehow are 3-3, and tied for first place with everyone else in the AFC East.  The Titans are a weird team, they have QB problems based around Jake Locker's injury although back-up Matt Hasselbeck had a good game versus Steelers and they got decent yardage from Chris Johnson.  If CJ wakes up expect a tight contest, although I believe the Bills have more dynamic weapons and are at home.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis - Browns win
Cleveland have their first victory, and the Colts looked really bad at home to the Jets when they gave up 161 rushing yards to Shaun Greene where he virtually walked through the D-line of the Colts at times.  Expect a better back in Trent Richardson to have some fun this week, as an improving D takes care of Luck. The emotion for the Colts in the wake of Pagano's illness was good for one game, now they are what they are, a team with a rookie QB with few other weapons at his disposal apart from Reggie Wayne.

Green Bay @ St. Louis - Packers win
Aaron Rodgers was the proverbial sleeping giant that woke up last week at Houston on Sunday night, 6 touchdowns tied a franchise record (with Matt Flynn- remember him) for 338 yards.  The Texans were due a loss and the Packers were due a statement win.  The Rams are the team with the bullseye on their chest.

Arizona @ Minnesota - Vikings win
The wheels have come off the Cardinals bandwagon with two losses in a row, last week the lose at home to Buffalo was hard to take in a game that neither team dominated.  Minnesota have been good to see as the surprise package, and with Adrian Petersen looking to eat up this failing Arizona D, this is my pick of the week, and lock.

Washington @ New York Giants - Giants win
RG3 was phenomenal considering the hit he took in Week 5, yet the Giants D-line are slowly waking up following some tentative games.  Eli Manning is quietly going about his business and getting returns from Nicks and Cruz, as well as Bradshaw.  This would be a big test for the Redskins' credentials, yet the Giants are always able to eke out these tight divisional encounters.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - Saints win
The Saints come off their bye week after gaining their first win of the season as Drew Brees set a new record of 48 consecutive games with a thrown TD. Expect him to continue that record this week, as a fresh Saints side go to division rivals Tampa, who are hot and cold and indicative of an inconsistent week.  The key is Josh Freeman who threw for 328 yards last week, but rarely does he follow it up with another big week.

Dallas @ Carolina - Panthers win
The Panthers are also coming off a bye week, whilst the Cowboys again snapped defeat from the jaws of victory versus the Ravens.  Dallas have also an injury worry over DeMarco Murray who gained 93yds on Sunday, this is a big loss for the Cowboys as Tony Romo still makes mistakes.  Carolina meanwhile will feel refreshed after the week off, especially Cam Newton who will be eager to make a better first impression for this season.

Baltimore @ Houston - Texans win
The only two teams in the AFC with winning records face each other in a great match-up.  The Texans will be seeking to bounce back and this is a bigger game for the Ravens, as with all the injuries sustained to Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb is just bad luck, especially to face an offensive juggernaut like the Texans with Foster, Johnson, Daniel at Matt Schaub's disposal.

Jacksonville @ Oakland - Raiders win
Jacksonville are coming off a bye but are still bad, Oakland ran the undefeated Falcons pretty close causing Ice Ryan to melt under pressure and Darren McFadden is creating great productivity.  The Jags have to travel cross-country and the Raiders will be wanting to close a game out.

New York Jets @ New England - Patriots win
The game of the week because Rex Ryan says it is, this should be a classic.  The Jets are seemingly clicking, getting the best out of Tebow in wildcat/trick plays; yet if it becomes a shoot-out between Sanchez and Brady, expect the former to have more mistakes and succumb to pressure from Chandler Jones up the gut, who is having a great rookie season.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - Bengals win
This is a tough one to call and I am sure the NFL wish they could flex the schedule as on paper this looks an awful contest.  The Steelers are 0-3 on the road, the Bengals are 3-3 and need to win these big divisional games to be considered a play-off team and with the Ravens being rattled by injuries, one of these times need to step up.  The Steelers have doubts from their running backs, and not getting much from their receiving core.  This is the Bengals time.

Detroit @ Chicago - Bears win
Monday Night Football is a beauty, and a chance for the Bears to flex their offensive muscles.  The Lions were fortuitous to defeat a wayward Eagles, the Bears had their feet up for two weeks.  Their defence is riding high at the moment, forcing turnovers and scoring touchdowns from offense, defence and Devon Hestor has not scored a return TD yet, could this be the evening. The Bears will win and stay one ahead of the Pack(ers)

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood for NFL updates

NFL - Week 9 picks

What did we learn from week 8 in the National Football League; well Tim Tebow is not ready to start yet in the NFL; the Cowboys still have work to do; the Steelers had a masterplan to keep Brady off the field and it worked; the NFC North will be the most competitive division in football soon as the Vikings have a star in Christian Ponder; the Dolphins will win a game meaning the Colts will select Andrew Luck and have a huge dilemma come draft day.

This week here are my picks, the teams with the byes are: Detroit, Minnesota, Carolina and Jacksonville.

Dolphins @ Chiefs - the Chiefs continue on their roll, a great job by Todd Haley in coming back from 0-2, the win over the Chargers, though undeserved is huge for momentum.

Falcons @ Colts - The Falcons will carry on putting pressure on the Saints in their division.

Bucs @ Saints - huge game here but the Bucs and Freeman are susceptible to mistakes whilst the Saints know they cannot afford another loss.

Jets @ Bills - tough game to call, but the Bills are better and this is the test for them, Jets need to make a statement.

Seahawks @ Cowboys - the Cowboys to bounce back but not have it their own way.

Browns @ Texans - the Texans have Foster, though Hillis may return

49ers @ Redskins - San Fran to carry on to the playoffs

Bengals @ Titans - this defense of Cincy are good

Broncos @ Raiders - both teams last time out had awful performances, this could get ugly but homefield advantage here.

Giants @ Patriots - the game of the weekend again, the Pats at home are different to the team that has lost twice on the road, but if Manning stays solid and the Giants control the clock it could happen again.

Rams @ Cardinals - the Cardinals have to turn up at some point but if Steven Jackson plays then the Rams win.

Packers @ Chargers - the Chargers need to bounce back, shame they are playing the best team in the NFL.

Ravens @ Steelers - I feel the Steelers have hit their stride, the Ravens won last week but only for Ray Rice and Flacco stepping up but the Steelers are playing smart football.

Bears @ Eagles - the Eagles will soar to victory here, although expect all purpose yard numbers to go through the roof with Vick, McCoy and Forte all playing at one time.

And in Week 8, I like most people stunk up the joint with my picks:
Cardinals @ Ravens - 27-30 - a huge comeback by Ravens here, from 21-3 down
Vikings @ Panthers - 24-21 - Newton impressed but Ponder gets first win
Jaguars @ Texans - 14-24 - Texans will be least impressive divisional winner this year
Dolphins @ Giants - 17-20 - Fins get close but no cigar
Saints @ Rams - 21-31 - The Saints are suspect away from the dome, hang on, this was a dome game
Colts @ Titans - 10-27 - a nothing game but still no Chris Johnson
Lions @ Broncos - 45-10 - Tebow was just plain awful, 7 sacks, 1 fumble for a defensive TD
Redskins @ Bills - 0-23 - the Deadskins go from 2-0 to 2-5 and done
Bengals @ Seahawks - 34-12 - another impressive defensive display from Cincy
Browns @ 49ers - 10-20 - The 49ers are rolling and will win the NFC West
Patriots @ Steelers - 17-25 - the Pats get only 20mins of possession the result is about management
Cowboys @ Eagles - 7-34 - the Cowboys flip flop again, hot and cold, up and down.
Chargers @ Chiefs - 20-23(OT) - I said it would be close, just picked the wrong side.

Week 8: 8-13
Total: 37-52

NFL - Week 7 picks

Byes this week belong to: Bills, Bengals, Patriots, Giants, Eagles, 49ers

The picks:
Chargers @ Jets - the Jets all of a sudden have a roll, they are at home against the Chargers who hate travelling; but have had two weeks prep so dont be surprised if Rivers turns up. But the Jets defense is waking up

Bears @ Bucs - okay not necessarily a home game for Tampa, but they are spending all week in London. Chicago dont turn up until Thursday.  The Bucs are bouncing around after beating the Saints and will continue.

Redskins @ Panthers - Cam Newton is still playing well and the Redskins are who we thought they would be.

Falcons @ Lions - big test for these Lions, if the Falcons can control the clock with Turner expect a road win here and the Lions have lost Best now.

Seahawks @ Browns - two awful teams, but go with the home field advantage.

Broncos @ Dolphins - Tim Tebow returns to Florida, he leaves with a W

Texans @ Titans - the Texans have to win this win to get back on the rails, Foster is back and will go big.

Chiefs @ Raiders - the Raiders are rolling; with ground and pound.

Steelers @ Cardinals - expect a professional display from the Steelers here, in a tough road trip.

Packers @ Vikings - how easy is Green Bay's schedule, and they are the champions.

Rams @ Cowboys - I want to see the Cowboys get angry, they should be 4-1 instead they are 2-3 and I pity the poor Rams for turning up, even with a break. They will wish you can have a 2 week bye week.

Colts @ Saints - the Saints lost a tough divisional match-up, like the Patriots did to the Bills (on the road), they are meant to lose. They are not meant to lose to the Colts.

Ravens @ Jaguars (MNF) - Ravens are quietly doing the business under the radar.

Week 6 picks - How did i do???
49ers @ LIONS -          25-19 : No handshake for me here
Rams @ PACKERS -    3-24 : Easy peasy
Panthers @ FALCONS - 17-31 : down day turned up
Colts @ BENGALS - 17-27 : the defence turned up for Bengals
Bills @ GIANTS - 24-27 : Giants bounce back
Jags @ STEELERS - 13-17 : Tighter than expected
Eagles @ REDSKINS - 20-13 : Grossman is bad
Texans @ RAVENS - 14-29 : Under the radar indeed
Browns @ RAIDERS - 17-24 : McFadden doing the business
Cowboys @ PATRIOTS - 16-20 : Give Brady two final minutes he'll give you the win
SAINTS @ Bucs - 20-26 : Big statement for the Bucs
Vikings @ BEARS - 10-39 : Damn the Vikings are bad
Dolphins @ JETS - 6-24 : The defence is here

Week 6: 10/13
Combined: 19/26

If you are going to Wembley Stadium this Sunday, enjoy the game and make sure you wear the colours of your team.  This is the 5th year (i've been every year) and it remains a great day out.  I expect points on Sunday as you have two offensive minded teams and if the weather holds and the turf does not cut up then expect a lot of things on the ground and through the air.  Although I am taking the Bucs, wouldn't it be great to see Devin Hester score a punt or kick-off return on the hallowed turf.  I expect him to run each time, so do not leave your seats when Tampa punts.