Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Putting the INT in International Series

On Sunday 2nd October, the NFL returns to London with the first game of the International Series taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. As ever the match up brought to the Great British NFL public on paper when first announced looked like an intriguing one, and yet as we enter Week 4 of the season the sides start to take shape in terms of narrative and you can never account for injuries.

This season brings us Minnesota Vikings (2-1) versus the New Orleans Saints (1-2) in a battle between aspirational sides trying to usurp divisional heavyweights and for some people it is the last throw of the dice.

The Vikings had a great start to the season, dominating divisional rivals Green Bay Packers with an emphatic 23-7 home victory, although truth be told the Packers were depleted with two offensive line starters absent and Allen Lazard missing for Rogers, not to mention the easy touchdown grab dropped by Christian Watson which may have shifted momentum. However, Justin Jefferson shredded a depleted defence for 180 plus receiving yards and two touchdowns. 

However, as dominant as that victory was the next game saw a reversal of fortune as a road trip to Philadelphia saw the Eagles win 24-7 with Jalen Hurts ruling the roost and forcing Kirk Cousins to endure another painful prime time outing. Cousins threw for three interceptions, two sacks, a fumble and a completion percentage of 58.7. 

Last Sunday, the Vikings held on against a resilient Lions side 28-24 with Cousins showing more maturity and less mistakes, with two TDs off of 260 yards but still a low percentage rate. Yet the side did enough to gain another divisional victory and stay atop of the NFC North.

The New Orleans Saints are entering the first season of a new regime without Sean Payton and still attempting to gain an offensive identity post-Drew Brees. They decided to go with Jameis Winston, a former overall No.1 pick in the draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2015 but for whom bad luck has followed him around with mistakes aplenty in his arsenal. This season after one game it was announced that he is suffering with four separate back fractures, which naturally, is not helping with his mechanics. this worry of his health has led to a return of poor play with bad decision making.

Following the fourth quarter week one comeback on the road at Atlanta - 27-26 with 269 yards for two touchdowns with no turnovers; the next week at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (his former team) bad Jameis returned with a nightmare performance - 25-40 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 6 sacks and a fumble as they succumbed to a stellar Tampa D who won 20-10 on the road.

On Sunday, Jameis attempted to outdo himself in Carolina but threw for two more interceptions meaning five in two games and two further fumbles to gift the Panthers there first win of the season. Yet he still threw for 300 plus yards meaning the modus operandi of the Saints is to throw when possible, and he seems to have made a good connection with rookie speedster Chris Olave who had 147 yards off of nine grabs and thirteen targets of Winston's 41 total passes, that is a third of them. Michael Thomas had 49 yards off of five targets (no drops). 

Jameis played in Tottenham Hotspur stadium for the Bucs in the last season before Brady and famously threw a pick six on his first possession in a game versus the Carolina Panthers. That was one of the first games at the Premier League stadium and that pass was greeted by a mighty roar helping cement the North London venue as a leading location for NFL games in Europe; there is for the first time this season an NFL regular season encounter in Germany when Tom Brady faces off against Patrick Mahomes' Kansas City Chiefs in a repeat of SuperBowl LV when he won his 7th ring.

Yet the Vikings and Saints are both undefeated in London, both 2-0 in their history, so something is going to give on this neutral territory.

What to expect this Sunday in London, well that is sometimes the beauty and curse of the NFL. In a quarterback driven league, it is hard to say what you are going to get from either of these guys under center. Cousins (when not on Prime Time) can manage this Vikings side to the playoffs, he has an abundance of talent around him to find; while Jameis' body is the big question mark. Luckily injuries to Thomas and Jarvis Landry are not considered to be long lasting and so both will be given the opportunity to star on Sunday.

What can be certain is that there should definitely be big plays - Olave had a 49 yard grab versus Carolina in defeat, and Justin Jefferson's scored two big TDs on opening week - so the potential for big plays under the lights is there. Can Kirk and Jameis deliver excitement and chaos that we adore about the NFL, or will they put the INT into the international series?

NFL 2015 Week 4 Preview

Week 3 was a much better instance of picking with yours truly going for a 12-4 in the week, raising me to 26-22 for the season. The few games I got wrong were close games including my upset special of Tennessee at home to the Colts who were trailing with 8 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before Andrew Clutch came to the fore again to get the 35-33 victory on the road and avoid going 0-3 to start the season.  As for Tennessee, following the resounding opening day victory they seem to be stifled on offense not helped by the fact that Mariota is having to throw more than necessary and the lack of running back quality is clearly affecting their production.

Other oversights included the Oakland Raiders winning their first back to back games since 2012 on the road at Cleveland; Derek Carr again threw for over 300 yards with rookie Amari Cooper again receiving for over 100 yards for the second consecutive game. Cooper is seemingly tying up the Rookie of the Year contest before the end of week 6.  Cooper has two consecutive 100+ yardage games in his rookie season, do you know none of Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown or AJ Green can lay claim to that stat in their rookie season.  Something is happening in the Bay Area, and it is good to see.

Elsewhere, some teams remain winless and frankly pitiful.  The Saints, Bears, Lions are all winless and in the case of Chicago planning for next season already with the release of Jared Allen to the Carolina Panthers; a great additon for the Panthers in that QB heavy division.  Yet the most surprising loss of the weekend, although I picked correctly, was the way the Buffalo Bills dismantled the Miami Dolphins 41-14 on the road with such ease.  Miami were meant to be a main challenger versus the New England Patriots, this result means the Bills will lay claim to that right for this season while the Dolphins defence which includes such Pro Bowlers as Suh, Cameron Wake and Brent Grimes looked unidentifiable from the defence we expected.

Week 4 is the first week to have bye weeks, with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans having a week off. So while Brady goes dancing at his sister's wedding and Mariota goes back to Hawaii. Here are my predictions:

Predictions

BALTIMORE @ Pittsburgh

NY JETS @ Miami 

(at Wembley Stadium)

NY Giants @ BUFFALO

CAROLINA @ Tampa Bay 

OAKLAND @ Chicago

Kansas City @ CINCINNATI

Houston @ ATLANTA

Jacksonville @ INDIANAPOLIS

PHILADELPHIA @ Washington

Cleveland @ SAN DIEGO

Minnesota @ DENVER

GREEN BAY @ San Francisco

St. Louis @ ARIZONA

Dallas @ NEW ORLEANS

Detroit @ SEATTLE

Match of the Week

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New York Jets (2-1) versus Miami Dolphins (1-2)



So on paper not one to really write home about, but the fact that this game is happening in my near hometown is reason enought to shout about it. The first of three International Series games taking place at Wembley Stadium this year sees for the first time an actual divisional game taking place on overseas soil. This is a huge filip for the International reach of the game that an AFC East rivalry game is taking place in London, as so often they are mis-matches and unfair contests such as the recent games involving Jacksonville and when the Patriots decimated the St. Louis Rams.  However, for once we could have a close contest as both teams have to contend with travelling over the Atlantic and both will be wanting to regain momentum following tough home defeats last Sunday.

The Dolphins as mentioned above were pulverised by the rampant Buffalo Bills and gave up 41 points at home.  There offence has struggled to click and but for a Jarvis Landry punt return in week 1 versus Washington they could be 0-3 coming into Wembley.  The offence much like the defence is lacking an identity and leadership, a lot was expected of Tannehill but will he be able to cope with another mean defence in the Jets.

Revis will be hunting Tannehill on Sunday

The Jets lost at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17, having gone 24-0 down in the first half the comeback was too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick to create, yet they have better offensive options with a nice balance of run - Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell - and receiving options in Eric Decker and if fit, Brandon Marshall.  The Jets seem to be a better balanced side on paper and that will probably be the case on the Wembley turf with the Jets flying back to their bye week victorious by 10 points.

Upset of the Week

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

While this may not be much of a reach, both teams are dealing with a series of crucial injuries to star players. The Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant until Week 9 or 10 at the earliest. Whilst the Saints missed Drew Brees last week with a rotator cuff injury. 

Luke McCown did a fairly decent job completing 31 of his 38 passes last week in the defeat to Carolina, but it is the lack of running attack that is mystifying for the Saints whose wide receiver depth is weak. If the Saints can stop the run attack of Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar out of the backfield. A lot rests on Brees being fit to start if he does you can see the team wanting to galvanise the franchise to a first home win in 7 attempts.

Dallas meanwhile showed a great deal of versatility in their play last week in their defeat to Atlanta. Brandon Weedon did a nice job in the first quarter but after gaining the upper hand they went to the run game and pretty much restricted Weedon's options downfield. Admittedly they faced an improving Falcons defence and they will not face a wide receiver in the calibre of Julio Jones this Sunday; but perhaps this is a perfect storm for the Saints to get that first win of the season. Expect a lot of points in the Big Easy.

Fantasy Advice

- Stick with Charles Clay (Buffalo) as a fill for the resting Gronk.

- Sam Bradford (Philadelphia) might finally be turning the corner for the Eagles.

- Lance Dunbar (Dallas) can rush but also gets plenty of catches

- Ty Henderson (Green Bay) seems to be the 3rd WR now for Packers; good match up versus the 49ers

- If you have Marshawn Lynch (Seattle) bench him for this week; don't risk that hamstring as the Seahawks won't versus Detroit at home.

Check out my other previews:

Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3

and my feature piece on the Denver Broncos

NFL Week 4 preview

Welcome back readers

Last week in Week 3 I predicted 12 correct victors in the NFL picking home wins for the Dolphins (v Falcons), Panthers (v Giants) and Titans (v Chargers) as well as picking the Jets and Ravens in close encounters.  Much like everyone else I incorrectly selected the Packers and 49ers over the Bengals and Colts respectively. Regretfully I expected the Eagles to bounce back at home versus Andy Reid and his chefs, sorry Chiefs. 

The Eagles are really cocking up by playing too quickly and not giving their underappreciated defence not enough time to recuperate.  They allowed a competent QB in Alex Smith enough time to keep the ball and churn time off the clock culminating in a nine-minute TD drive in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and did not do many mistakes and got some big time stops and sacks from their defensive line.  The Chiefs may be good enough for a play-off spot if this continues, although they still have to play in their division.

In Week 4, two teams have byes the Packers (1-2) and the Panthers (1-2). The Packers need to get some people fit on offense and the Panthers will feel good following their shut out of the belittled Giants.

49ers at Rams
The Rams beat and drew with the 49ers last year, Jeff Fisher seemingly figuring out the read option system and stopping Kaepernick.  This is not a bad time to play the Niners who have lost two games consecutively and looked very sub-par in both defeats.  Defences have seemingly figured out Kaepernick and they have few weapons on offense.  The Rams have a still under-rated defence and Sam Bradford can expose some secondary worries by stretching the field with Chris Givens.
Prediction: Rams by 3

Ravens at Bills
EJ Manuel looked like the rookie he is at the Jets last week.  The Ravens won without Ray Rice but have a capable replacement in Bernard Pierce available, expect the Ravens to win this one easily but then we said that about the 49ers versus the Colts last week.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Bengals at Browns
Brian Hoyer is not the second coming, but it is a start for Cleveland who traded Trent Richardson to the Colts last week.  Hoyer won his second professional start and hooked up well with Josh Gordon (another trade piece), although please note this was against the woeful Minnesota Vikings who travel to Wembley this week.  The Bengals resolve after taking a 14 point lead but then going 16 point behind to the Packers was most impressive, and that defence is making plays time and time again.  If they can make Aaron Rodgers look more journeyman, what will they do to Hoyer.
Prediction: Bengals by 10

Bears at Lions
A NFC North smash mouth encounter.  Hopefully the Lions will have Reggie Bush back as this will be vital to their outcome of this tie. The Bears defence is back to its illustrious best with return TDs for Major Wright and Julius Peppers; and Jay Cutler is playing solid with Matt Forte getting good numbers also.  This is a battle of two stud recievers to, Brandon Marshall v Calvin Johnson.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Giants at Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll and making mistake-free football.  Alex Smith secures the ball better than anyone, Jamaal Charles is getting runs and passes.  The D-line suffocated Michael Vick last week, sacking him six times.  Eli Manning has been sacked nearly a dozen times already and intercepted nearly the same number; the Chiefs should overpower this transitional Giants team
Prediction: Chiefs by 9

Cardinals at Buccaneers
The word is that rookie Mike Glennon is going to get the start with the Bucs finally fed up with Josh Freeman.  This is unfair of Freeman, as it was not his two defensive mistakes in the first two games to leave them winless.  The Cardinals also have a good defence and the return of Rashard Mendenhall will pay dividends in this one.
Prediction: Cardinals by 3

Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are not a dumb team, and it is doubtful they would succumb to the dumb Jaguars on the road.  They now have the one-two punch of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw to compliment Andrew Luck's peerless throwing.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Seahawks at Texans
Seattle did well to get through the banana skin of the Jaguars last week, but a lot of starters sat the fourth quarter.  This will definitely be more tricky, with the Texans offensive options.  However, it comes down to defences and the Seahawks will flat out bully DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson, if his concussion clears up.
Prediction: Seahawks by 4

Steelers at Vikings (at Wembley Stadium)
Two 0-3 teams headline the first International Series game at Wembley Stadium.  The Steelers did show some life on offence in the defeat to the Bears on Sunday night, and the Vikings have been scoring points but not winning games.  Rushers have had joy versus the Steelers so if AP can get his wheels going he could be the difference maker on this occasion as he has been so many times before. But do not expect a classic
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Jets at Titans
The Titans defence has impressed many, and Geno Smith underthrows and forces some throws at times. Jake Locker like Alex Smith is making few mistakes and Chris Johnson is due a big rushing day, perhaps against the weakest part of the Jets defence.
Prediction: Titans by 5

Redskins at Raiders
RG3 showed signs of life in the loss to the Lions last week.  He threw better and stronger off his legs and it looks like his legs are getting back to match sharpness.  The Raiders had some joy versus the Broncos scoring three touchdowns but Darren McFadden rushed for only 9 yards total. The Redskins may have found the game to turn the corner.
Prediction: Redskins by 3

Eagles at Broncos
In this game, you will see the difference between a high tempo offence and a high powered offence.  Peyton Manning is throwing touchdowns for fun, spreading the love from game to game. Eric Decker had 133 receiving yards and one TD reception coupled with one for Wes Welker and DeMaryius Thomas each.  The Eagles need to even out the time of possession otherwise Manning will control the clock and score at will, which is what he is doing anyway.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Cowboys at Chargers
Would like to think the Chargers can win this one, but they are suffering injuries at inopportune times.  The Cowboys, however, are doing okay with Des Bryant looking to fulfil that immense potential he contains and the defence doing okay.
Prediction: Cowboys by 6

Patriots at Falcons
This is a huge encounter for both teams.  The Patriots will want to maintain the 100% record in case the Dolphins lose on Monday night and the Falcons dare not fall three games behind the Saints should they triumph versus the Dolphins.  Two big offences go head to head.  Tom Brady looked to have clicked with his receivers better this week and there is a certain tight end, Rob Gronkowski, expected to start at last this week and the defence of the Patriots has been a nuisance all season thus far.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Dolphins at Saints
A great match up for MNF with the impressive Dolphins playing the seemingly restored Saints. Both teams are 3-0 so someone is going to go home unhappy.  The Saints have the better defence plus that raucous home crowd as their 12th man; although they need to get pressure to Ryan Tannehill who continues to prove the doubters wrong week on week.
Prediction: Saints by 4

Finally, can I extend a pleasant thank you to the Americarnage (@Americarnage) crew who gave me a very surprising plug for my blog on their latest podcast.  Many thanks Gents and I look forward to meeting up with you all soon.

Follow me @JamieGarwood