NFL 2015 Week 5 preview

 

Very pleased with my predictions in Week 4, going a strong 12-3 for the week getting the Arizona, Chicago and Giants victories incorrect, which is odd considering I have been high on the G-Men since the beginning of the season although that was more a match-up versus Buffalo on the road that put me off. But a great win for the Giants as they get back to 2-2 and essentially should be 4-0 and running away with the NFC East. With injuries taking over in Dallas - add Lance Dunbar to the injury table - and general dysfunction in Philadelphia, there is a chance for the Giants to win that division with a 9-7 record.

Elsewhere, the Miami Dolphins pulled the trigger on coach Joe Philbin following their awful 27-14 defeat in Wembley Stadium to the New York Jets. The performance was devoid of personality and a microcosm of their season thus far, no pressure on the opposing quarterback, they could not stop Chris Ivory running over them and when the only chance you have of scoring points is via Jarvis Landry's kick off returns then the offence is to blame.  

 

Miami had gone all in during the offseason signing Suh as their big free agent, coupled with the big contract given to Ryan Tannehill last year but failing to give him any viable receiving options and still no positive rushing from Lamar Miller, and you get a franchise in somewhat disarray.  My belief was that the constant turnover of personnel would stifle the team and putting your eggs into the Tannehill basket was a mistake, he is not a great quarterback; whilst he may have a big arm he cannot show composure required during games nor manage the line effectively.  Tough times in South Beach ahead.

Predictions

Byes: Carolina, Minnesota, NY Jets, Miami

INDIANAPOLIS @ Houston

Chicago @ KANSAS CITY

SEATTLE @ Cincinnati

Washington @ ATLANTA

JACKSONVILLE @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans @ PHILADELPHIA

Cleveland @ BALTIMORE

St. Louis @ GREEN BAY

BUFFALO @ Tennessee

ARIZONA @ Detroit

NEW ENGLAND @ Dallas

DENVER @ Oakland

San Francisco @ NY GIANTS

Pittsburgh @ SAN DIEGO

Match of the Week 

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Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

This could be a great divisional match-up. Last week I was talking about how the Denver Broncos defence could be the reason to take Peyton Manning to his swansong Super Bowl, and last week the defence again stood up to a test by nullifying Adrian Peterson in their 23-20 victory at home. Peterson had 81 yards off of 16 carries, not bad looking but that is massaged by his 48 yard touchdown run making it 33 off 15 carries for the best running back in football.  Denver were never behind in the game and controlled the tempo. 

 

The Oakland Raiders will provide a far sterner test for the Broncos, this time in the air as the Raiders possess two wide receivers in rookie Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree who could give the secondary fits. A lot will depend on how well sophomore quarterback Derek Carr deals with the pressure from DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller who are eating up QBs this season; and if Latavius Murray can provide ball security and enough rushing yards to not put pressure on the Raiders passing game.

The Raiders were unlucky in Chicago last week as they made enough plays to win the game, and they will feel unfortunate to leave without the W from the Windy City, it is that desire that will make them get up for this home game versus the division rival and if their O-line can get pressure to Manning then their secondary led by the eternal Charles Woodson will be their to take advantage.

Fantasy Advice

- Larry Donnell (Giants), with Odell Beckham Jr suffering with injury expect Manning to find his safety blanket for the home game versus 49ers.

- Antonio Gates (San Diego), is back from suspension a Hall of Fame signing back in partnership with Philip Rivers versus an ageing Steelers defence.

 

- Doug Martin (Buccaneers), with Jameis Winston suffering in the passing game (4 INTs last week) expect Lovie Smith to revert to a better balance and the muscle hamster back to the fore.

- Duke Johnson (Browns) a viable running back versus a Ravens defence who are leaking points

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Ravens looking for lift off

For many neutral observers, including yours truly, the Baltimore Ravens were a sneaky Super Bowl contender and I selected them as my opponent to face the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco in February. However, both of those selections look questionable now.

Whilst I think the Seahawks have been undone by a tough opening road trip - away to divisional rivals St. Louis and a grudge rematch in Green Bay - the Ravens also had an opening dual road trip on the much friendlier West Coast away to Denver and Oakland. The Ravens must have been confident returning home with at least one victory from a demanding road schedule.

However, they return for their home opener versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 with an 0-2 record and with a major need of reassessing their expectations for the season following a 19-13 in Mile High and then he gut wrenching defeat in Oakland 37-33 when they gave up a last minute touchdown to Derek Carr who connected with Seth Roberts from 12 yards with 26 seconds remaining.

What was so obvious of the touchdown pass was the blown coverage as Roberts was wide open to receive his reception in the end zone. Yet this was indicative of the whole Ravens performance on defence, Carr went 7 for 9 for 65 yards on the winning drive as well as a career high 351 yard and three touchdowns, this after last week when it was feared he suffered a serious hand injury to his throwing hand last week versus Cincinnati.

This is in stark contrast to the defensive performance by the same Ravens team that shut down Peyton Manning's passing offence. The Raiders gained 448 yard, more than twice what Manning was allowed.

Why did this occur? Were the Ravens complacent facing the lowly Raiders and confident that a repeat of the same defensive performance would get a road win. Yet the defence could not get any pressure to the sophomore Carr, as he was sacked once and he one time Timmy Jernigan did get in Carr's face he was called for roughing the passer.

The loss of Terrell Suggs to a season ending Achilles injury will effect the pass rush and in a division when you have Andy Dalton and Ben Rothliesberger to face you need pressure upfront to help the talented cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Will Hill. Again the Raiders had talent at their disposal with both Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper both going for 100+ yard games, so perhaps the loss while a shock does have some explanation.

The finger can be pointed more at the offence, who took field goals from Justin Tucker at distances of 21, 22,  31 and 37. Maybe the offence need to be more assertive in the opposition territory, despite Steve Smith Sr. having 150 yards off of 10 receptions and Crockett Gilmore had another productive day with two touchdowns off 5 receptions for 88 yards. Kariam Aiken had 89 yards but Marlon Brown is coming back from injury so only had 2 receptions for 12 yards.

They like the balance of rush and pass but Joe Flacco throwing 45 times and Justin Forsett only getting 15 carries shows no balance. Flacco threw for 384 yards off 32 off 45 attempts and he did not get sacked. Flacco to be considered Eli needs to step up and show some clutch in critical fourth quarter situations.

0-2 is not the end of the season, but that age old statistic does rear its ugly head, only 12% of teams starting winless after two games made he postseason since 1990. The Ravens along with fellow playoff teams Seattle and Detroit Lions are in the same boat. Whilst I think the Ravens are not in as bad a situation as the Lions are, Baltimore will be like Seattle and not push the panic button just yet. Although the need for lift off at home to Cincinnati this coming Sunday is much needed.

NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Preview

Thanksgiving means so much to so many Americans.  Apart from a public holiday less than a month before Christmas and one long weekend to do your shopping for the next holiday it also means a chance to sit down with the family, hoover down your food and then retire to the Laz-e-boy and watch three NFL games back to back, beer to beer, turkey leg to pumpkin pie.

This year like last there is three Thanksgiving games featuring the two regular hosts of Detroit and Dallas as well as an almighty Thursday night showdown in the AFC North for the NFL Network.

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)
In the first game, the Detroit Lions host their division rival Green Bay Packers in a match for the supremacy of the NFC North where it appears only one team from that division will make the playoffs due to the play of the Carolina Panthers and the West division.
The Lions have so much talent in abundance and yet they have conspired to lose their last two games at Pittsburgh when Stafford had over 300 yards in the first half and yet Calvin Johnson had no receptions in the second half leading to a 10 point loss. Last week they lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game again they should have won on paper, yet they are a team who lose from winning positions. Not good for momentum and play off pushes.
The Packers will be starting Matt Flynn who led the team well in the tie versus Minnesota on Sunday, Flynn knows the system and has good targets in Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.
Expect a lot of throws in this game although Eddie Lacy could make a differemence in the dome where his asthma problems will not surface, having sat out the fourth quarter and overtime at the weekend.

Prediction: Lions by 4

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
The Cowboys will like their chances of getting to seven wins before the Eagles travel across the country to Arizona on Sunday in a close encounter.
Oakland came close to defeating Tennessee but oddly two missed field goals by Seb Janokowski meant they lost by four instead of winning by two.  Matt McGloin is decent at times and done a good job but the Titans are just as good at defence as are the Cowboys.  Expect Rashad Jennings to have a good day with the run, although the Raiders do not have the same number of wide out weapons that Tony Romo has to call upon - Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Miles Austin.

Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)
The Steelers have done extremely well to get close to .500 having opened the season 0-5, this has been due to the offense being left to Big Ben and the defence slowly resurfacing to past glories.
The Super Bowl champions however have had a god awful year not helped by the lose of veteran defenders to retirement, Denis Pitta lose to injury before the season started and then the ineffective play of both Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. 
Something to remember about this match-up is that this is always close and comes down to a late field goal as it did earlier in the season at Pittsburgh when Shaun Suishman connected with a time expiring field goal for a home victory. This again will be close.

Prediciton: Steelers by 3

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The Pats make a comeback

Following the unfortunate road loss to the vibrant Buffalo Bills last week, the Patriots on the road again this week had to respond with a big performance in the hostile environment against not just the Oakland Raiders teams, and their loyal fanbase.

Not just performances from Tom Brady, who threw for a career-worst four interceptions but also the ranked last defense that could not stop Ryan Fitzpatrick in the last drive of the game, as he easily went 74 yards allowing the easy chip shot of a field goal to win the game 34-31 and avoid overtime.

Who is to know that the Patriots might have won in OT but the chance was gone.  Gone was the chance to make a 3-0 start, instead they were 2-1 reliniquishing AFC East supremacy to the Bills who own a tiebreaker already.

But the Patriots needed a performance from their defense and in spite of giving up 504 total yards this was an improved showing.  It is no coincidence that the return of Patrick Chung helped matters.  Chung is in his second year with the organisation but already he looks like a leader on the field when having to win the ball back.

Chung had his moment in the second quarter when the Raiders were knocking on the door trailing 14-10, the chance was there to go in at the half ahead.  Alas, Jason Campbell threw straight at Chung with no receiver near him allowing an easy pick.  The Patriots marched down the pitch and kicked a field goal to take a 17-10 lead, and then on the first possession of the second half scored on a Steven Ridley rushing TD. So following his mistake, Campbell went from four points down to 14 by which point the game was up and even a faltering defence like the Patriots could not give such a lead away again.

Brady meanwhile was faultless, throwing for at least 2 TD's in a game for the 12th consecutive game (tying a record with Peyton Manning), but he again relied totally on the work of Wes Welker who had 9 catches for 156 yards and 1 TD, the over-reliance on Welker may come to haunt the Patriots as the other catches from other receivers were 7 combined, Ochocinco had 2 catches.

There was a nice balance between the run and the aerial route as the two punch of Ridley and Green-Ellis led to two TDs; but the lack of Aaron Hernandez for another week meant that Welker had to be seeked out and the run game was necessary to kill the clock and keep McFadden out of the game for the Raiders.  So long as they had to chase the game, Campbell would have to throw (25-39, 344 yards but 2 picks).

Next for the Patriots are the Jets in a big divisional clash.  The Jets lost again to the Ravens in a defensive match-up but one in which Mark Sanchez had no protection from his O-line, hopefully the Patriots will be able to call upon Albert Haynesworth to do more of the same, but with the loss of Jared Mayo the injury curse hits the Patriots again.

The defense may be the worse in the league and having Tom Brady may cloud those numbers but one day they will have to step up and make a good account of themselves, but the lack of cohesion and constant injuries may mean the identity may be lost in the shuffle.

Other notes and thoughts:
The Lions are for damn real, coming back from 24 points to win at Cowboys Stadium, where Tony Romo threw two interceptions run back for touchdowns.  A huge momentum change in the third quarter led to Matthew Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson in the fourth for the winner.

The Eagles lost again (1-3) to the 49ers at home, more questions even without Michael Vick to blame.

The Carolina Panthers punted to Devin Hester, why kick to a man who can return and did so for the 12th time in his career setting an NFL record.

Problems are fermenting in Minnesota who are 0-4 and lost to the equally terrible Chiefs (1-3) and now lead the Andrew Luck sweepstakes although the Colts look likely to lose on the road to the Buccaneers.

Aaron Rodgers continues his impressive form as he tore up an awful Denver Broncos team throwing for 4 TDs and running for 2 personally in an allround effort.

Is it just me or is there just a handful of good teams this year - Patriots, Packers, Saints, Lions,
Some good sides still with question marks - Ravens, Texans, Bills,
The fair to middling - Steelers, Bucs, Jets
And then the rest with no level of consistency or form what so ever.

Three weeks to the game at Wembley, cannot wait.  Should be a good win with two explosive running backs - Forte v Blount.  A sharpshooter with Cutler and a growing pedigree of Freeman.