Ravens looking for lift off

For many neutral observers, including yours truly, the Baltimore Ravens were a sneaky Super Bowl contender and I selected them as my opponent to face the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco in February. However, both of those selections look questionable now.

Whilst I think the Seahawks have been undone by a tough opening road trip - away to divisional rivals St. Louis and a grudge rematch in Green Bay - the Ravens also had an opening dual road trip on the much friendlier West Coast away to Denver and Oakland. The Ravens must have been confident returning home with at least one victory from a demanding road schedule.

However, they return for their home opener versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 with an 0-2 record and with a major need of reassessing their expectations for the season following a 19-13 in Mile High and then he gut wrenching defeat in Oakland 37-33 when they gave up a last minute touchdown to Derek Carr who connected with Seth Roberts from 12 yards with 26 seconds remaining.

What was so obvious of the touchdown pass was the blown coverage as Roberts was wide open to receive his reception in the end zone. Yet this was indicative of the whole Ravens performance on defence, Carr went 7 for 9 for 65 yards on the winning drive as well as a career high 351 yard and three touchdowns, this after last week when it was feared he suffered a serious hand injury to his throwing hand last week versus Cincinnati.

This is in stark contrast to the defensive performance by the same Ravens team that shut down Peyton Manning's passing offence. The Raiders gained 448 yard, more than twice what Manning was allowed.

Why did this occur? Were the Ravens complacent facing the lowly Raiders and confident that a repeat of the same defensive performance would get a road win. Yet the defence could not get any pressure to the sophomore Carr, as he was sacked once and he one time Timmy Jernigan did get in Carr's face he was called for roughing the passer.

The loss of Terrell Suggs to a season ending Achilles injury will effect the pass rush and in a division when you have Andy Dalton and Ben Rothliesberger to face you need pressure upfront to help the talented cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Will Hill. Again the Raiders had talent at their disposal with both Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper both going for 100+ yard games, so perhaps the loss while a shock does have some explanation.

The finger can be pointed more at the offence, who took field goals from Justin Tucker at distances of 21, 22,  31 and 37. Maybe the offence need to be more assertive in the opposition territory, despite Steve Smith Sr. having 150 yards off of 10 receptions and Crockett Gilmore had another productive day with two touchdowns off 5 receptions for 88 yards. Kariam Aiken had 89 yards but Marlon Brown is coming back from injury so only had 2 receptions for 12 yards.

They like the balance of rush and pass but Joe Flacco throwing 45 times and Justin Forsett only getting 15 carries shows no balance. Flacco threw for 384 yards off 32 off 45 attempts and he did not get sacked. Flacco to be considered Eli needs to step up and show some clutch in critical fourth quarter situations.

0-2 is not the end of the season, but that age old statistic does rear its ugly head, only 12% of teams starting winless after two games made he postseason since 1990. The Ravens along with fellow playoff teams Seattle and Detroit Lions are in the same boat. Whilst I think the Ravens are not in as bad a situation as the Lions are, Baltimore will be like Seattle and not push the panic button just yet. Although the need for lift off at home to Cincinnati this coming Sunday is much needed.

NFL AFC Conference 2015/16 Season preview

For any writer to do a full preview on all 32 teams and 8 divisions is a stretch, but I will give it my best shot. They say start with what you know,so I am starting with the AFC, the conference which is home to the reigning Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots.

Much has been made during this offseason about one man and the effect it will have on his team, it is easy to forget there are 31 other teams vying to win this season. And that is from a New England Patriot fan. I am biased, yet I accept this is a weird offseason leading into the preseason. If I was the Patriots I would accept the suspension and get the first four games, which on paper look no worse than a 2-2 record anyway (v Pittsburgh, @ Buffalo, v Jacksonville and @ Cowboys) and then reset the season come October with Brady under centre.

AFC East
My preview begins in the AFC East which thank to some key personnel moves on and off the field for certain teams, the division which has been New England's for nearly a decade is now under threat.  The Miami Dolphins realised that they need not only a capable QB for themselves, but a pass rush to attack the various QBs they face such as Brady. Therefore the signing of Ndamoukah Suh is a masterstroke, a player whose defensive capabilities are limitless but perhaps a change of climate will do him the world of good.

Rex Ryan, left New York, but did not get far heading north to Buffalo, staying in house and bringing a winning mentality to the floundering Bills who have enough offensive weapons to give any defence headaches all year. Expect Shady McCoy to lead the charge and with Sonny Williams the lead wide out in his second year, the pace will be tough to be second to the Patriots.

The New York Jets have a new head coach in former DC of Arizona, but the loss of
Sheldon Richardson for the season is huge for a team whose defence kept them in more games than you would think. Gene Smith is still the QB and that raises enough doubts that they will again be wooden spoon champions in the East.

The reason the battle for second will be tough is that the Patriots will again employ the siege mentality as us against them takes hold. With or without Brady, you anticipate that the presence of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will be sufficient for either Brady or Garrapollo to engineer victories. Much has been made of the losses on defence, no Revis, no Browner but time and again the Patriots have a turnover of defensive personnel and they either draft well or pick up free agents. The general acclaim afforded them for picking up Malcolm Brown in the draft indicates the nerves about the Patriots defence should be put on the back-burner.

Prediction: 1. New England 2. Miami 3. Buffalo 4. New York Jets

AFC North
So often this division has been one of feisty competition and resilience, now it looks like a division of teams failing to fulfil their potential. The theory of consistency holds true, but you can be a good regular season team yet you have to back it up in the playoffs. Something that has alluded the Cincinnati Bengals led by Andy Dalton and the still employed Marvin Lewis. For them it is easy, win the division and win a playoff game. Just one. Only one to have credibility.

Big Ben put up some huge numbers last season but as he ages, the stellar QB needs to adapt and utilise Le'Veon Bell this season to win the division, while the loss of Dick Lebeau will be a loss for any team.

The Cleveland Browns have another QB competition but it is between Johnny Football and Josh McGown, not exactly a great competition to begin with. Despite that who will the winner throw to
with Josh Gordon suspended for the season.

That leaves us with the Baltimore Ravens, a team with a perfect balance on both sides who have
quietly gone about their business and have the least questions to answer on the field. Can Flacco be less of a fluke and prove his elite status.

Prediction: 1.  Baltimore 2. Cincinnati 3. Pittsburgh 4. Cleveland

AFC West
Ordinarily this would be an easy decision and say the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning at the helm would walk this division, get 12 wins minimum and compete with the Patriots for home field advantage. Yet the ageing Manning means the division is up for grabs although 10 wins might be enough for whomever. The biggest problem for Denver is protecting Manning, and Ryan Clady's injury at left tackle (Manning's blind side) will ask serious questions on his power of recuperation. A blessing for the Broncos was the advancement of CJ Anderson who gives Manning a great number to call at the line.

Elsewhere in the division, Kansas City have the most efficient QB but he had no downfield threat to keep them in high scoring games. Still a good defence marshalled by Andy Reid will make the the biggest threat to Denver.

San Diego have a good QB but a lot of questions on their defence and the four game suspension of Antonio Gates for PEDs is a big loss.

Oakland Raiders are not going to the be the laughing stock of the league, but again they have a young QB without much offensive weapons to help him mature and gain wins. Latavius Murray showed flashes of explosive game changing potential last year but is not considered their first choice RB, a mistake if they do not want to be dead last again.

Prediction: 1. Denver 2. Kansas City 3. San Diego 4. Oakland

AFC South
Quite possibly this could be the closest division in the AFC this season thanks to the elevation of one teams defence, and more consistent QB play hopefully coupled with the leader of the packs intention to not protect their star asset. This is the division that will see a real change of scenery.

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are many neutral observers tips to again reach the AFC championship game, yet to this observer the team have not done enough to beef up the offensive line to protect Luck. This makes it al the more remarkable when they play twice against the Houston Texans who can boast a defensive line that includes boy JJ Watt, the now fully fit Jadeaveon Clowney and newly acquired Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle - a scary combination. If the Texans can get a full season out of their QB either the young and maturing Ryan Mallett or dependable Brian Hoyer, some yardage out of Arian Foster (note Foster suffer a groin injury on 3-8-15) then the Texans are not only a division winner but a formidable opponent.

The Texans also have a favourable schedule. They open at home to Kansas City followed by a three game series versu three of the awful NFC South (Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta) so a possible 4-0 start perhaps, followed by a tough trip in Week 10 at Cincinnati for Monday Night Football with New England visiting Houston in Week 14. Not a terrible looking schedule, certainly not one to be scared of.

The other two teams have young QBs. Tennessee got Marcus Mariota and so changed their scheme, can the Hawaiian native lead the team to glory. It is down to expectation and Mariota should be given the keys for a season and not have a lot of pressure on his young shoulders.

Whereas, Blake Bortles is expected to progress and get more wins this year for the Jacksonville
Jaguars, Bortles showed flashes of quality coupled with bad rookie decisions, yet the acquisition of
Julius Thomas from Denver gives him a security blanket and red zone target.

Prediction: 1. Houston 2. Indianapolis 3. Jacksonville 4. Tennessee

Click here for my NFC preview.

NFL Week 13 Thanksgiving Preview

Thanksgiving means so much to so many Americans.  Apart from a public holiday less than a month before Christmas and one long weekend to do your shopping for the next holiday it also means a chance to sit down with the family, hoover down your food and then retire to the Laz-e-boy and watch three NFL games back to back, beer to beer, turkey leg to pumpkin pie.

This year like last there is three Thanksgiving games featuring the two regular hosts of Detroit and Dallas as well as an almighty Thursday night showdown in the AFC North for the NFL Network.

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)
In the first game, the Detroit Lions host their division rival Green Bay Packers in a match for the supremacy of the NFC North where it appears only one team from that division will make the playoffs due to the play of the Carolina Panthers and the West division.
The Lions have so much talent in abundance and yet they have conspired to lose their last two games at Pittsburgh when Stafford had over 300 yards in the first half and yet Calvin Johnson had no receptions in the second half leading to a 10 point loss. Last week they lost at home to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game again they should have won on paper, yet they are a team who lose from winning positions. Not good for momentum and play off pushes.
The Packers will be starting Matt Flynn who led the team well in the tie versus Minnesota on Sunday, Flynn knows the system and has good targets in Jordy Nelson, James Jones and Jarrett Boykin.
Expect a lot of throws in this game although Eddie Lacy could make a differemence in the dome where his asthma problems will not surface, having sat out the fourth quarter and overtime at the weekend.

Prediction: Lions by 4

Oakland Raiders (4-7) at Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
The Cowboys will like their chances of getting to seven wins before the Eagles travel across the country to Arizona on Sunday in a close encounter.
Oakland came close to defeating Tennessee but oddly two missed field goals by Seb Janokowski meant they lost by four instead of winning by two.  Matt McGloin is decent at times and done a good job but the Titans are just as good at defence as are the Cowboys.  Expect Rashad Jennings to have a good day with the run, although the Raiders do not have the same number of wide out weapons that Tony Romo has to call upon - Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Miles Austin.

Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-6) at Baltimore Ravens (5-6)
The Steelers have done extremely well to get close to .500 having opened the season 0-5, this has been due to the offense being left to Big Ben and the defence slowly resurfacing to past glories.
The Super Bowl champions however have had a god awful year not helped by the lose of veteran defenders to retirement, Denis Pitta lose to injury before the season started and then the ineffective play of both Ray Rice and Joe Flacco. 
Something to remember about this match-up is that this is always close and comes down to a late field goal as it did earlier in the season at Pittsburgh when Shaun Suishman connected with a time expiring field goal for a home victory. This again will be close.

Prediciton: Steelers by 3

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL Wildcard Preview

After 17 weeks of bone-crunching, mouth-whetting amazing football with ups and downs across the boards and after Black Monday when seven coaches were shown the door, we now have 12 teams remaining across two divisions with eight teams (four in each over two games) starting the Wildcard weekend where teams play for the right to go on the road to a higher ranked conference opponent.  There are some great match-ups starting with the Bengals on the road at the Texans.

#6 Cincinnati v #3 Houston
Oddly for a 6-3 matchup in the playoffs you have a team that has played with momentum in the last few weeks going on the road to face a team that has lost three of its last four games which saw them fall from the No.1 overall seed to No.3 and no bye week. The Bengals have a quarterback who has won a play off game in Andy Dalton, whilst this is Matt Schaub's first play off game as he missed the play offs last year due to injury.

Dalton is getting help from his offensive weapons, Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis is getting good mileage from RB not Adrian Peterson numbers but 100 yards a game is not bad.  And they have AJ Green who is becoming as potent as Andre Johnson, the Bengal defence is playing with fire aswell.

The Texans need to go back to the drawing board they have done away with Arian Foster touches and instead relying on the deep threat of Johnson, yet if the Bengals can tie up Johnson there are no other weapons of variable ability to throw to.

Prediction: Bengals by 3

#6 Minnesota v #3 Green Bay
One week after the Vikings defeated the Packers to enter the play offs, it is a repeat of the match but this time it is on the hallowed turf of Lambeau field.

Whilst Adrian Peterson has been a freak this year, last week it was Christian Ponder's best game as a pro wiht 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns allowed AP to eat up those holes.  Expect Green Bay to press Ponder when he drops back and shut off the bubbles/screens he usually throws.

This is also a different game, last week the Packers who were probably going 80% due to their play off place being assured, will be pumped for this game and wanting to make amends for the last Lambeau play off game when the Giants came in and shocked them.  Plus the Packers have a decent QB in Aaron Rodgers, you may have heard of him - last week he had 300+ yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort.

Prediction: Packers by 8

#5 Indianapolis v #4 Baltimore
This has all manner of storylines, you have the team that left Baltimore the Colts returning with the prodigal son in Andrew Luck, the continuing recovery of Chuck Pagano the Colts coach from leukeamia and now the Ravens' linebacker Ray Lewis has annouced this is his last ride as he is set to retire once the Ravens' play off run ends either in defeat or victory.

The Ravens much like the Packers were assured of a play off berth and were half-hearted versus the Bengals last week; they have a lot of talent still at their disposal in Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.  If the Ravens can use Rice's dynamism effectively as they should do then expect them to run this game.

The Colts are a different animal on the road away from Lucas Oil Field, and whilst Luck has been amazing at times he has still committed turnovers (24 in total) and this defence with a returning Lewis still has Ed Reed on its roster and can generate enough pressure to confuse and disrupt Luck's rhythm.

Prediction: Ravens by 10

#5 Seattle v #4 Washington
This is the game of the weekend and the toughest one to predict owing to both teams having X factors under centre in Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III - both rookie quarterbacks who have led teams with low expectations to the play offs.

RG3 is a dynamic player, but has been helped by Alfred Morris his running back whose big numbers have helped open up receivers and led to few turnovers by the Redskins.  The defence has improved significantly under Jim Haslett and they may be able to create pressure.

Seattle is very much similar to Washington, a rookie quarterback helped out by a good running back. The only difference is that Seattle's O-line does allow pressure to get to Wilson, yet their defence has been huge for the team in general.  That makes this game all the more tougher to predict, it will be close but expect the Seahawks defence to get to RG3 whose mobility has not been the same since he sat out a game a few week ago.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3

That would make my Divisional play offs these:
AFC - Bengals @ Broncos and Ravens @ Patriots
NFC - Seahawks @ Falcons and Packers @ 49ers

NFL Week 7 review

Week 7 was as ever full of surprises, full of dead certs that never came off.  Its Monday morning after a NFL Sunday and twitter has blown up over Robert Griffin III's performance on the road against the New York Giants.

In a sign of things to come over the next few years in the NFC East, a rivalry has been planted between two of the most durable quarterbacks in Eli Manning and RG3.  RG3 kept the Redskins in the game, and gave them a 23-20 lead when he hooked up with Santana Moss for a 30 yard touchdown after scrambling what seemed like an eternity.  You saw the best of him when he evaded two pass rushers out of the pocket on 4th and 10, yet somehow found Logan Paulson for 19 yards which led to the Moss TD a few plays later.  RG3 was ready to celebrate his first statement win.

Yet he - and we for two minutes - forgot that he was facing two-time Superbowl winner Eli Manning who is renowned for running the two minute drill as well as anybody.  And whilst RG3 is a dynamic individual who can pretty much do anything with his offense.  RG3 cannot play defense.  Manning was able to connect with Victor Cruz for the go-ahead TD that ended the scoring at 27-23.

The Redskins might have lost the game yet they remain potentially in a wildcard race from the NFC East and right now they have the second best QB in the NFC East.  The Giants are the cream of this Eastern crop, with Manning again winning, last season they would have lost this game at home.

Time to Buc up
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers conspired to lose a game they should have won.  At home to the New Orleans Saints, the Bucs took a 21-7 point lead thanks to some great passing by Josh Freeman (who seems to get big numbers v the Saints D, then yet again who doesnt) who ended up with a career-high 420 yards and three touchdowns.  Attempting to engineer a game-tying TD drive in the dying seconds, Freeman did connect with Mike Williams to send the home fans into a frenzy, yet Williams had already stepped out of bounds and so by rule cannot be the first receiver to touch the ball.  The penalty resulted in a 35-28 victory for the now 2-4 Saints, who have won two in a row and still have something to play for.

My problem here is that the Bucs had seemed to turn the page in the summer.  They hired a new coach in Greg Schiano, who would plug a leaky defense; they made moves in the off season to get a name receiver in Vincent Jackson who had a 200+ receiving game and one TD.  Jackson should have had two, yet in a 95 yard play was tackled at the one.

The Saints then had a big goal-line stand as the Bucs went for it on fourth and goal, yet it was the play-calling that was mystifying as three times they lined up pack horse, LaGarrett Blount in the backfield and three times they handed it to him.  The Bucs were woefully guilty of naivety here, where was the invention, where was the pick and roll, where were targets Doug Martin and Jackson who went awol.

Instead of being 3-3, the Bucs are now 2-4 along with the Saints, both teams are four behind the Falcons who were on a bye and now need three more wins to tie up the division.  Admittedly, both teams have to face the Falcons twice yet the chance of gaining a wildcard is slipping away due to the impressive starts by teams in the NFC West and North.

Cameron lets down Rice
The Baltimore Ravens are seemingly a different side away from home to the team at M&T Stadium.  The Ravens went to face the only other AFC team with a winning record in the Houston Texans, who were swept aside by a rampant Aaron Rodgers last Sunday night as he threw for 6 TDs in the Texans' first game without Brian Cushing who tore his ACL.

Cam Cameron must have hit upon the idea to try and outshoot the Texans, yet in an advert for selling yourself wrongly, Joe Flacco and the Baltimore offense forgot what it was that made them good, two words: Ray Rice.  Rice was neglected in terms of momentum and usage.  During the first half, Rice had only six carries, whilst Flacco had 20 attempted throws, completing 7 and one pick six.which led to a 29-7 half-time deficit from which they could not recover.

All in all, the Texans outgunned the Ravens by 244 yards in total offense, Rice ended up with 42 yards from just 9 carries.  The Ravens are better engineering plays for Rice from the backfield - screens, tosses, runs - here they thought they could out throw the Texans.  The Texans stuck with a mix of air and rush, Arian Foster had 19 carries for 98 yards and 2 TDs.  Schaub threw 37 times. Flacco threw 43 times.

This was a bad weekend for Baltimore as the Steelers won on the road at the Bengals. Even though they were without two running backs, they stuck to their gameplan and got yardage from Dwyer (17car, 122 yards) and Big Ben threw for 278 yards.  Pittsburgh got the job done, and with the Ravens suffering terrible season-ending injuries to Ray Lewis and DeMarcius Webb, they may have got Terrell Suggs back but morle must be low at the moment.

The Pats almost sent packing
Will the real New England Patriots please stand up, as the reigning AFC champions are struggling with continuity and a lack of finesse on both sides of the ball.  The good defensive work in the first few weeks of the season is being undone by injuries to the worrying secondary, too many long balls are being executed, too many plays of 20+ yards given to receivers.

The offense are thinking they can get by on reputation alone, both tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are not fully fit, Wes Welker is still get good yards but Brandon Lloyd is letting down his expectation levels, dropping too many passes that a man of his talent has.

Thanks to some dumb play-calling from the New York Jets offense, the defense came up with a recovered fumble to end the game and put a stake in the heart of the Jets.  The Pats sit atop the AFC East at 4-3, and own a tiebreaker over the Jets.  The Bills lost at home to the Titans, and the Dolphins had a bye.

In hindsight, this week will be a good one, yet it could have been far worse for Tom Brady and the Patriots.  Instead of packing their up their hopes of title aspirations, they pack their bags ready to travel to the United Kingdom to face the St.Louis Rams at Wembley Stadium. The Rams lost to the Green Bay Packers at home 20-30.  The Patriots may return to Boston 5-3 and feeling a lot better about themselves.

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood