The Sheriff and the Sunset



The Sheriff says goodbye

 

Whilst this writer is a New England Patriots fan until my sun sets, it is begrudgingly but respectfully that I wish Peyton, can I call him Peyton, all the best with his retirement. As long as the Patriots have been at the summit there has been Manning riding beside them going toe to toe in titanic tussles from Foxboro to Indianapolis to Mile High.

For every great quarterback there has to be an equal, otherwise you cannot be considered great yourself. If Tom Brady did not have Peyton Manning to fight and battle against then neither would have striven to achieve what they have.

Tennessee 1993-97,
Indianapolis Colts 1998-2001,
 Denver Broncos 2012-2015

 

Whilst Manning has all the regular season records obtained due to his longevity, Brady wanted the rings and he has four. Whilst Manning was always considered to be unfairly labelled a choker in playoff football, at least Manning had the humility and sustainability to alter his playing style to realise that so long as he did not force the play downfield with his ailing arm strength and just marshall his offence, then he could and did lead his team to a Super Bowl triumph.

While there may be a risk of tainting Manning's legacy due to a possible HGH scandal or a sexual assault from his college days at Tennessee, and whilst they might blight his post-playing career with any investigation that may take place - the man played the game in such a professional and stately manner for all those years has to be admired.

For every early postseason exit, there was Manning to take the bullet for his Colts and Broncos, taking the blame for failing to meet expectations for both the franchise and himself.

Professional and stately

He has to be admired for the way he conducted himself when he had to cut ties with the Colts (the team many thought he would retire with) who released him pathing the way to join Denver and John Elway. He never moaned of victimisation or of feigned loyalty, he served his time in Indy and the fans thanked him and saved their vitriol for owner Jim Irsay.

Manning left with his head held high. He did not clamour for attention while he made a crucial career decision to join Denver, he did not turn his free agency into a sideshow like say LeBron James so infamously did.

Manning has been control of his career from the outset, not because he asked for the control but because his quality of play demanded it.  As the best pocket passer in history who threw the best spiral, he formed a lethal partnership with Marvin Harrison worthy of comparison with Montana and Rice, who time and time again won game after game.

Manning became the man you loved to hate because he won time and time again. The guy who was a born winner now retires a winner. Despite a worse passer rating - 67.9 - than his rookie season - 71.2 and only throwing 9 touchdowns to 17 interceptions in the regular season.

His arm was failing him. His body had slowed down. And so it comes to pass. Time waits for no man.

Bennie Fowler caught Manning's last NFL completed pass

Every legendary player or first ballot Hall of Famer such as Peyton, deserves to right their own ending. His journey ended in San Francisco, out in the Old West, a city of regneration and new born - the old Sheriff took his battered body and team led by a stellar defence to the promised land and a victory in Super Bowl 50.

They say you are only as good as your last throw. Peyton's last throw was a two point conversion to Bennie Fowler which gave the Broncos a 24-10 lead with less than a minute to go.

His last pass was a completed pass and it put points on the board.

Peyton wrote his ending. Peyton had the Lombardi Trophy for a second time. While his decision may be based more on health than the cementing of a legacy, lets be glad he decides to end it now and not come back for one more fading shot at glory like Brett Favre.

The time is now for the Sheriff to ride into the sunset. Good luck Peyton.

Peyton's Place

The cream of the AFC West

It seems that the more things change the more they stay the same in the NFL. People get so worried about certain individuals and their performances after one week, the age of social media makes us all judges in the wink of an eye or 140 characters or less. Yet class remains permanent for those who we criticise, with only injuries slowing them down.

Case in point is the twilight of Peyton Manning.  Many fear that he has reached the end of his illustrious career, can he stand up for 16 games. After the week 1 victory over Baltimore, many thought that Manning's body with his worrisome neck injuries would not be able to withstand the continual pass rush which made many observers wince.

Why worry? 3-0 start helps

Yet the Broncos won the game.  Peyton may have lost weapons such as Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas but he still has Demaryius Thomas, and something he has on his side will make the Broncos competitive - a defence that is making plays all around the field. Against Detroit, the D had another interception - two in this game - against Matthew Stafford.

On the road, Peyton threw for 324 yards off a solid 31 of 42 throws.  The Broncos are 3-0 and in the ascendency of the AFC West if the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Green Bay Packers tonight, with only the Oakland Raiders (yes really!) with another winning record in the division.

Can the Broncos go all the way?

Von Miller leads the D

Well that depends on many things not least can Manning stay healthy along the stretch which includes some tasty encounters on the slate - after the bye in Week 7 they face Green Bay, New England, Kansas City and Cincinnati and San Diego at home as well as road trips to Indianapolis, San Diego and Pittsburgh. That could be construed as one of the toughest schedules post bye in the league especially for a team wanting to contend in the postseason.

Can they gain a 13-3 record for the season. Personally I see them entering the bye week 6-0 due to their defensive superiority over the next three teams - Minnesota, Oakland and Cleveland.  But I can see them losing three games at Pittsburgh, San Diego (who are playing better than their record currently) and versus New England or Cincinnati, not to mention the Week 8 shootout versus Aaron Rodgers in Denver, where the edge goes to Denver who will be coming off the bye week to a home contest.

Wade to the Max

Phillips has rejuvenated the Denver D

Credit for the Broncos revival can be the acquisition of Wade Phillips as Defensive co-ordinator, again the defence were stingy affording the high powered Detroit offense 290 total yards and only 28 yards on the ground. That bodes well for the match up next week versus Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings.

As well as the household names on defence such as Von Miller, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib; the depth is being shown by the two people who did grab interceptions in the Motor City.  Bradley Roby's athletic grab in the first quarter set the tone for the defensive display and the fourth quarter interception by David Bruton Jr, doused a possible Lions comeback and led to the Broncos' final touchdown to ice the game.

This depth will be imperative on the stretch especially when the Broncos play such elite quarterbacks performing at a high level after that bye week - Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Rivers (twice), Dalton and a returning Roethlisberger.  The Broncos have given up a total of 49 points in three games, against such high scoring offences this is a must to succeed.

As Chris Harris stated:
“That’s what it takes to win a Super Bowl,” said Harris. “You need everybody. Some games are going to be [Bruton]’s game, some games going to be T.J. [Ward]’s game, some going to be Aqib’s game – as long was we keep taking turns it’ll be looking great for us at the end of the year.”

And I have not even mentioned the pass rush which in addition to Von Miller includes first round draft pick Shane Ray, DeMarcus Ware and Lerentee McCray, who are giving offensive lines fits thus far.  These vaunted playmakers are making plays. Plays that could lead Peyton Manning to the Super Bowl and the perfect finale.

Running on Empty

Where might the Broncos come up short though may be the running game, which again had a woeful performance before injuries reared their ugly head.  CJ Anderson had 18 yards off of 8 carries before leaving the field with a possible concussion, although he passed a test he did not return.  After Anderson passed the test, back up Juwan Thompson (3 carries for 11 yards) left with a neck injury. This left Ronnie Hillman who had 13 yards off of 7 carries albeit a touchdown run also from near the goal-line.

This would be a worry for Denver going forward - something their running backs do not do lightly - if Manning does have an off day and cannot find Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders or the ever improving Owen Daniels then where is the running game to fall back on.  Ronnie Hillman is not the sort of running back to strike fear into defensive lines; whilst CJ Anderson has only garnered 74 yards at an average of 2.3 yards with a longest run of only 14 yards. 

Again not numbers to have defences worrying but if you have Manning tossing the ball as he is, can Denver totally forsake the run and put more pressure on Peyton's ageing and weary shoulders?

Denver will not win the Super Bowl

The Denver Broncos were an offensive juggernaut during the first 6 games of the season defeating reigning Super Bowl champions, Baltimore Ravens, on the opening night of the season and then winning 51-48 in Cowboys Stadium in one of the great NFL regular season games.

Yet oddly signs of failing started to appear during the sixth consecutive victory of the season over the worst team in football, Jacksonsville Jaguars in a 35-19 victory at home, in a game that they were favoured to win by 28 points, a spread that initially dropped to 26.5 points.

This is the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team so bad that even Tim Tebow cannot get into the squad.  The Broncos decided to play their worst game of the season against the worst team.  It happens in team sports, a sure fire winner is prone to drop to their opponents weaker level. This is a mental issue in terms of complacency and treating it like a practice or pre-season encounter.

However, would-be MVP Peyton Manning threw for his 2nd interception of the season and was at fault for one of the two fumbles the team suffered on the day.  The other was due to the running back core of Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno. On the day Moreno had 3 rushing touchdowns off 42 total yards and 15 carries.  In the second half, Manning threw for no touchdown and threw for 295 yards. Chad Henne out-gunned Manning by eight yards in the game including 190 yards to newly reinstated Justin Blackmon, whose ability earmarked the future problems for the Broncos secondary.

After the Cowboys and Jaguars victories, the stat that started doing the rounds was that the Broncos secondary and defence overall was allowing a huge amount of passing yards and after Sunday's defeat in Indianapolis they rank 32nd and last with 319.9 passing yards per game. 

Initially, the stat was inflated because opponents being two touchdowns or more down in the game would be required to throw more frequently to score more quickly, hence the 500 plus yards afforded to Tony Romo in Dallas. Yet any Super Bowl contending team to be considered a contender over a pretender needs to make plays on defence - they have 9 interceptions but none for touchdowns; three forced fumbles two recovered for no touchdowns.

Unlike say the Kansas City Chiefs who have had 10 interceptions for three return TDs and seven forced fumbles for one touchdown; the Chiefs' limited offence is getting overshadowed by a high scoring defence - does that remind you of the Baltimore Ravens first Super Bowl winning team with Trent Dilfer at quarterback.

Then we come back to the main man, Peyton Manning, a man who is on an agenda to win one more Super Bowl title before his eventual retirement.  Manning chose Denver over Miami due to the receiving core and the decent defence, however that defence lost Elvis Dumervil due to fax issues. They lost Von Miller for the first six games of the season due to misconduct suspension, Champ Bailey to a foot injury that made him miss the first four games of the season and lost Ryan Clady to a season-ending injury. This means Manning protection on the offensive line is not great and his old body is having to pick itself up off the turf more often; yet also he is having to throw more to keep the team ahead due to the defence not getting many stops or turnovers.

Yet Manning when he is under centre is starting to show some weakness in his arm.  The flight of the ball is going very high and appears to have less zip on the ball; the Colts defence played brilliantly in wrapping up his downfield options with Demaryius Thomas having an awful day and Julius Thomas having his first non-existent game of his career.  Only when the Broncos were down 21 points in the fourth quarter did Manning start throwing to the ever-reliable Wes Welker who made some astounding reaction catches to keep drives alive on third downs.  Manning also showed a lack of composure and was visibly shaken by the blind side hit by Robert Mathis which led to a safety, prompting him to throw quicker to avoid being hit and asking his receivers to get separation swifter.

Yet Manning was then let down by some odd play calling.  Manning was throwing it all over the place and a tiring Colts defence did not have many answers to him in that form in a hurry up offense.  They had 1st and Goal at the Colts two yard line to make it a one point game if they convert a two-point conversion, yet they handed it off to Ronnie 'Fumble' Hillman who promptly fumbled handing the ball back to the Colts with 2:38 left in the fourth quarter. The unfortunate part was that the Broncos had three timeouts before Hillman's blunder, the fumble meant they had to burn those timeouts either side of the two minute warning. Matt Prater converted a field goal with 10 seconds remaining, prompting an onside kick that the Colts recovered leaving Andrew Luck to take a knee and the win.

This week the Broncos host the Washington Native Americans at Mile High, a game on paper they should win, yet the Redskins showed they are getting back to some sort of form from last season beating Chicago 48-44 at home.  RG3 looks back to his old self, leading by example and is being helped by rookie tight end Jordan Reed who had nine catches and 134 yards.  This is indicative of the Broncos woes versus opposing tight ends allowing 43 catches for 568 yards but only two touchdowns. That is 13.2 yards per catch, although they might not allow red zone scores for tight ends, Coby Fleener did have one last week and the field position will open up the read option play calling for Washington who got three rushing touchdowns off of Roy Helu last week.

After the Washington game there comes a much needed bye week for the Broncos and Manning to rest his arm. They come back in Week 10 at San Diego, then comes the key two match-ups versus the Kansas City Chiefs sandwiching a trip to New England.  You could not ask for a tougher four game stretch.  The Chiefs who are being helped out by a weak schedule (they play Cleveland and Buffalo) before they face the Broncos, meaning they could be 9-0 when they face the Broncos for the first time; they also face Denver off a bye which is a huge advantage.

If Kansas split the series with Denver and are the No.1 seeds in the AFC then Kansas will have a huge advantage due to the loud Arrowhead crowd.  Denver require home field due to the altitude of Mile High, of course that did not come to fruition due to the Ravens' play off bandwagon. Manning has a history of not winning huge road play-off games (did he ever win at New England in the postseason?) and there is a theory that Manning plays better when ahead in the game when he can maintain his coolness and dictate the tempo, however, when he is behind in the game he struggles and panics which goes against his better nature.

Denver's remaining schedule is v Washington, v Kansas, @ New England, @ Kansas, v Tennessee, v San Diego, @ Houston and @ Oakland.  Conceivably they could finish that stretch with a 6-2 record meaning a 13-3 record. That is usually good enough for #1 seed in the AFC.

However, the Chiefs still have v Cleveland, @ Buffalo, @Denver, v San Diego, v Denver, @ Washington, @ Oakland, v Indianapolis, @ San Diego.  For the Chiefs they could finish 7-2 which would mean a 14-2 record for them, although the two series against Denver and San Diego will dictate the path their postseason goes to, and San Diego could sneak a wild card due to the fallowness of the AFC this year.

The Broncos so touted as the AFC Super Bowl favourite may have the offensive weapons to compete with anyone, yet they have questions of their defence to answer and Manning's health needs to be monitored.  The Chiefs and Chargers will have a say in the course of the AFC West let alone the AFC representative in New York at the Super Bowl.

Follow me @JamieGarwood on Twitter.

NFL Week 8 preview

Week 7 was built up as the week Peyton Manning returned home to Indianapolis, the place he spent the majority of his career and won his only Super Bowl ring at.  The week leading up to this tussle was overshadowed by the tweets and comments of Colts owner, Jim Irsay, some of which was at times derisory.

The Colts won somewhat convincingly, giving them a third victory over a Top 5 team following a home win over the Seattle Seahawks and the road win at San Francisco.  They have beaten those three supreme contenders by a total of 11 points. The three teams have a combined record of 17-1 and that one is Seattle defeating the Niners. 

The question coming into the game was also concerning the physical prowess of Manning himself, he and the Broncos offense has been on fire but against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars the week before, a game they were meant to win by 30 points and only won by 16, Manning had an interception and fumbled.  It might have been a case of playing within themselves against a lesser opponent (the Jags have lost each of their games by double digits - a record), yet Manning's ball flight and accuracy seemed to diminish from the Cowboys victory on the road. 

Indianapolis had a game plan to attack Manning from his blind side with Robert Mathis leading the charge, and his sack which caused a safety led to Manning suffering immensely being unable to find targets downfield, but credit should be given to the Colts secondary who tied up Decker and Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker had some joy in the fourth quarter getting separation when needed and shorter passes found their target.  However, the Broncos were guilty of some poor play-calling. Having converted a short yardage touchdown with Moreno, the next time they were at the two yard line they handed off to Ronnie Hillman, who has a history of fumbling, and naturally fumbled making it a 9 point deficit instead of one point if Denver converted a two point conversation.

The Colts will feel great and Chuck Pagano should be ecstatic with the defensive performance thus far this season, yet they suffered a season ending injury to veteran Reggie Wayne, who suffered an ACL tear when turning on the field. A cruel injury that may well affect their offense, but the Kansas City Chiefs have shown you do not need a stellar offense if your defence can punch the opposing quarterback in the mouth.

Bye weeks this week for six teams - Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Houston, Baltimore - meaning less games to pick:

Panthers (3-3) at Buccaneers (0-6)
The Bucs are a terribly poor side and to had to injury, Doug Martin has a torn labrum meaning he could be out for the season. So it is all change in the offensive department, although Mike Glennon's arm is still finding Vincent Jackson who had two more TDs this past weekend. The Panthers were too strong for the Rams (30-15) at home on Sunday, Cam Newton needed to have a long look at his own play before their bye week. Newton has returned better numbers, is turning over the ball less and making big plays. Expect them to heap more misery on Tampa.
Prediction: Panthers by 7

Cowboys (4-3) at Lions (4-3)
The Lions are a frustrating bunch, full of so much talent and potential yet they could not get the upper hand of a Bengals side. They still have Megatron whose two TDs showcased his amazing hands and Matt Stafford's belief in his receiver, amazing Stafford only has 4 INTs considering the bombs he throws so regularly.  The Cowboys shut down the Eagles (who have injury issues) and Tony Romo is having a great year, getting people involved and has momentum.
Prediction: Cowboys by 4

Browns (3-4) at Chiefs (7-0)
The Chiefs easy schedule is here still, yet you can only beat who is in front of you.  The vaunted defence had no sacks in the first half against Case Keenum (who had a great debut), yet had five in the second half and made the plays they needed to do. The worry for the Chiefs is their offense is not being productive at the moment apart from Jamaal Charles who is playing through the pain but they restrict turnovers to the opponent as Alex Smith leads them down the field. 
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Dolphins (3-3) at Patriots (5-2)
Following the controversial call to end the Pats-Jets game on Sunday, where Nick Folk has a 56 yard field goal become an easier 42 yard attempt, the Patriots will be pleased to get home to Foxboro.  A win at home to another division rival will help cement the position atop the AFC East. The Dolphins have suffered two awful home defeats to the Ravens and Bills, games they should have won.  Hopefully Gronkowski who got some playing time will continue to get targets and hopefully Brady will aim for shorter passes and stop aiming downfield where his arm just cannot aim anymore.
Prediction: Pats by 4

Bills (3-4) at Saints (5-1)
The Saints come off a bye at home to the Bills who won at the Dolphins with Thad Lewis getting his first NFL win. The Saints are having that nice balance of star studded offence but getting plays on defence from Rob Ryan's scheming.  The Saints should have too much for the weaker Bills.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Giants (1-6) at Eagles (3-4)
The Giants will not have the No.1 pick in the draft, they were never as bad as the record indicated and the zest they showed in the defeat to Chicago paid off with a home victory to the sorry Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night. The Eagles meanwhile lost at home to the Cowboys, their ninth consecutive home defeat - a franchise record, they ended up with Matt Barkley under centre who promptly had three INTs.  The Giants might have turned the corner here and if their D-line can shut down and pressure whomever the QB is, maybe it will be their 2nd win and Phillies 10th home defeat.
Prediction: Giants by 3

49ers (5-2) at Jaguars (0-7)
I'm going to watch this car crash at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, me and my mate are considering having a drinking game of downing a pint for every TD scored. Expect to be drunk by halftime. Its a worrying trend how bad the Jaguars are and how many bad teams there are in the NFL this season.
Prediction: 49ers by 20 pints, sorry points

Jets (4-3) at Bengals (5-2)
The Bengals got another big win on the road at Detroit, the Jets held firm at home to the Pats thanks to their defence making turnovers.  Andy Dalton is a walking interception and if their d-line can shut down the dual running backs, the Jets benefited from Chris Ivory having a stellar day.  The Jets have a limited pool of talent but they are getting results, and if the game is tight they are winning those games. Upset of the week.
Prediction: Jets by 3

Steelers (2-4) at Raiders (2-4)
Two 2-4 teams face off on the west coast, the Raiders are coming off a bye and the Steelers coming off two consecutive victories.  The defence has turned up for the Steelers and if they can pressure Tyrelle Pryor then Big Ben will do enough to win this game in a low scoring affair.
Prediction: Steelers by 3

Redskins (2-4) at Broncos (6-1)
It appears RG3 is back like his old self, his movement is better and he is making plays as well as support from his running crew. Roy Helu had 3 TDs off of 49 yards and Jordan Reed at tight end is an imposing target. The Broncos questionable pass defence was put to the sword by Andrew Luck and his crew of Heyward-Bey, Wayne and Hilton.  The Broncos need to get pressure to Manning, but if Manning can get some consistency in his targets then it should be an easy win, but this is the sort of game RG3 could surprise you in, much like his debut at New Orleans last year. Is it too much to ask for an upset? The Redskins have shown they can score, and although Matt Forte had 3 rushing touchdowns Moreno and Hillman are not his equal
Prediction: Redskins by 2

Falcons (2-4) at Cardinals (3-4)
This game does not interest me, yet it is the type of game Arizona could win, but the Falcons should have Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez back as weapons for Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Falcons by 6

Packers (4-2) at Vikings (1-5)
The Vikings are as bad as the Jags, Browns, Bucs and that is with Adrian Peterson.  The Packers might be without Jermichael Finley who was in ICU on Sunday night, so the receiving core for you fantasy guys will be play Jordy Nelson and Boykin who had 100+ yards and a TD. Otherwise this will be a blowout as the Vikings cannot go pound for pound with Rodgers.
Prediction: Packers by 10

Seahawks (6-1) at Rams (3-4)
Poor Sam Bradford, finally getting some offensive weapons and targets getting good numbers and then boom, one tackle on the sideline means back up Kellen Clemens will be throwing the rock. Surely some Rams fans would prefer Kurt Warner back in the white and blue.  Clemens' first start of the season, is an easy one, against the best defence in football the Seattle Seahawks who will need a win to stay one game ahead of the Niners who will undoubtedly win in London this Sunday. The only bright spot is that the Seahawks are not as formidable on the road as at home, though Russell Wilson had one of his better games of his young career at Arizona last week. The Seahawks have an 11 day rest for this game, the Rams are in confusion before they even start.
Prediction: Seahawks by 12

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 6 Preview

Week 5 was an odd sort of week; more injuries by the dozens for vital players, very late kick-offs and surprises to be had.
For myself, I went 8-14 making me 30-15 over the three weeks of doing this preview post.

The injuries sustained including Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer who got tangled up on the touchline and ruptured his ACL and is done for the season.  The Browns still beat the Buffalo Bills thanks to a solid defensive effort and Brandon Weedon, who has the job back for the season. The Browns have a tough schedule ahead of it meaning the winning record will disappear, but you felt stronger for their chances with Hoyer under centre.

The surprises were the Indianapolis Colts holding up the Seattle Seahawks at home to give them their first defeat of the season 34-28; meaning the Colts have beaten both the formidable 49ers on the road and now the Seahawks at home.  Due to the continual woes of the Houston Texans and Matt 'Pick 6' Schaub - who threw his fourth consecutive return interception in as many games at San Francisco - the Colts will probably have a home playoff game which in the Lucas Oil stadium will be of benefit to this still young side led by the ever-impressive Andrew Luck.

The game of the week including 99 points as the Denver Broncos went into Cowboys Stadium and won 51-48 thanks to a Matt Prater field goal as time expired thanks to a Tony Romo interception late in the fourth quarter to set up great field position for the undefeated Broncos who are one of three undefeated teams remaining at 5-0 along with Kansas City and New Orleans.  Romo should not get the burden of responsibility as he, was in the ultimate shootout with Peyton Manning (who threw his first interception of the season), threw for 506 yards. The Cowboys defence needs to man up and make some plays and they should still win the NFC East which is just plain woeful.

New York Jets won on Monday Night Football in Atlanta 30-28 thanks to a Nick Folk field goal as time expired and led by a Geno Smith less than two minute drive to get into position.  The Falcons came up short again on a big stage, losing two prime time games in a week on home turf.  Matt Ryan has a 2-6 record on MNF; yet credit to Geno for making the plays needed. The Falcons though are now 1-4, four games behind the Saints and reportedly without Julio Jones who has broken a bone in his foot to coincide with the continual high ankle sprain for Roddy White and the absence of Steven Jackson.

Eli Manning threw some more interceptions, he has 12 through five games thus far.  At the moment the Giants have the No.1 pick in the 2014 draft. The Giants are officially worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars who scored the most points in one game thus far at the St. Louis Rams yet still lost 34-20.

Week 6 predictions (Byes for Atlanta and Miami)

Giants (0-5) at Bears (3-2)
The Thursday Night Football feast continues with a winless team getting prime time air time. Eli Manning has thrown so many interceptions and this week has faces a formidable defence who will be hungry and eager to bounce back from two straight defeats.  They will bring too much pressure to Eli and Jay Cutler just needs to protect the ball and target Alshon Jeffrey who had 200+ yards off of 10 receptions.
Prediction: Bears by 7

Saints (5-0) at Patriots (4-1)
After losing in a monsoon in Ohio, Tom Brady was visibly perturbed by the lack of options he had as the young receivers dropped three of his last eight passes when the ball was there to be caught. The 13-6 road defeat meant Brady snapped his 52 consecutive games with a touchdown.  Hopefully the return of Rob Gronkowski at home will elicit a huge crowd response; they will need it against a very good Saints side whose defence is playing as well as the Drew Brees offence.
Prediction: Saints by 6

Bengals (3-2) at Bills (2-3)
Andy Dalton won a game throwing for 212 yards. The Bengals defence who sacked Tom Brady four times face the hugely respected talent of Thad Lewis..wait, who the hell is Thad Lewis.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Lions (3-2) at Browns (3-2)
Cleveland's three game winning streak will be coming to an end this week due to the presence of Brandon Weedon in the dropback.  The Lions are a formidable defence whose front seven will be eager to target the 29 year old QB who holds on to the ball for too long.  Calvin Johnson will return also to prompt a big day for himself and Reggie Bush who had a quiet game last week.
Prediction: Lions by 10

Raiders (2-3) at Chiefs (5-0)
The Chiefs are 5-0 (3-0 v NFC East) and this is their first divisional match of the season against an improving Raiders led by Tyrelle Pryor.  The Chiefs are still making few mistakes and Jamaal Charles either running or catching the ball is having the sort of season that should be getting more recognition.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Panthers (1-3) at Vikings (1-3)
The Vikings return from their late summer holiday in London with a W, against the frustrating Carolina Panthers.  The Vikings if they play Matt Cassel will probably have too much for this Panthers team who cannot get the best out of Cam Newton.  It will probably be Cassel's last start as the Vikings acquired free agent Josh Freeman after he was cut from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Steelers (0-4) at NY Jets (3-2)
Unbelievably the Jets have a winning record and are one game behind the division leading Patriots who they might join at 4-2 if results go their way this week.  Expect J-E-T-S to hold up their end of the bargain; they are getting offensive options back on the field with Mike Goodson in the backfield, Stephen Hill making plays at wide out and Santonio Holmes possibly returning, as well as the defence holding firm.  Big Ben will be shrinking come Sunday night.
Prediction: Jets by 7

Eagles (2-3) at Bucs (0-4)
The Bucs come off a bye with Mike Glennon firmly placed in the quarterback position yet the defence is not making plays.  If Michael Vick remains injured Nick Foles could well step up into the position as he did in the 2nd half of the Giants game and get results.  From a fantasy perspective avoid LeSean McCoy, Foles is a passer and will seek out DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek alternatively.
Prediction: Eagles by 4

Packers (2-2) at Ravens (3-2)
Felt the Ravens were lucky to escape Miami with a W as the Dolphins did some good things including a pick six of the worst throw ever seen by Joe Flacco.  The Packers after a bye look ready to shake things up with a mixture of passing and Eddie Lacy back holding the rock.
Prediction: Packers by 4

Rams (2-3) at Texans (2-3)
Hmm, this is a tough one to call. Usually two bad or losing sides you look at the quarterback, yet the Texans vaunted defence is not making plays; perhaps signing the ageing Ed Reed was a mistake. Yet the Texans should follow the 49ers game plan to nullify the Rams and Sam Bradford.  If Arian Foster is back to his best then that is probably going to be the difference.
Prediction: Texans by 7

Jaguars (0-5) at Broncos (5-0)
The Broncos are 28 point favourites to win this game...get on it people
Prediction: Broncos by 27

Titans (3-2) at Seahawks (4-1)
The Seahawks lost their first game of the season but on the road.  Back at the boisterous home turf, the intimidation factor might be too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick, whilst the Titans wideouts will be too soft for the Seahawks secondary.
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

Cardinals (3-2) at 49ers (3-2)
After their two game skid, the 49ers look to have got their heads back on straight after the Aldon Smith incident.  The defence are making plays as always, Kaepernick is not making turnovers and Frank Gore keeps on running.  The Cardinals are doing some good things but mostly on the defensive side, yet that is in the secondary. The 49ers O-line will be too strong to protect Gore.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Redskins (1-3) at Cowboys (2-3)
Tony Romo played very well, remember that, and he was finding targets all over the field and yet because of playing Denver it became a throwing contest, so expect DeMarco Murray to have a big day against the weak Redskins defense.  Be interesting to see how RG3's knee looks after a bye.
Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Colts (4-1) at Chargers (2-3)
Philip Rivers is the biggest fake in all of football; he is playing well and yet he faces the Raiders and seemingly freezes. Admittedly he has not many options to throw or hand off to, whereas the Colts are playing with confidence. Interesting to see if Donald Brown gets the goal-line carries over Trent Richardson again for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: Colts by 7

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NFL Week 5 preview

In Week 4, I got off to the worst start by sheepishly predicting the Rams would upset the 49ers.  However, the Rams could not utilise some good pitch position and some woeful throwing by Sam Bradford led to a sizeable victory by the 49ers who sit 2-2 behind the dominant Seahawks. 
Elsewhere during the week I went 10-5 which adding to the previous week of 12-4, I am now 22-9 over two weeks.

I was even lucky enough to predict the correct margin of victory for the Arizona Cardinals over the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who again succumb to a late field goal.  The Redskins won on the road at Oakland after going 14-0 down.  There were two upsets as the Bills won at home against the Ravens and the Browns convincingly defeated the Bengals at home 17-6. 

There is now a three way tie atop the AFC North between those two teams and the Ravens with all three 2-2; so will the winner of that division be the only representative in the playoffs. The AFC is shaping up to have six from Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Texans and now add the Dolphins. 

I would have considered the Titans but the loss of Jake Locker to a hip strain for a supposed four weeks may disrupt their momentum at a crucial time, the replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the more capable back-ups, however, he needs to have good ball control and avoid turnovers, something Locker had done thus far.

This week's predictions (Byes this week for Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Washington, Tampa Bay)

Bills at Browns
Thursday night football usually means bad football, however with these two .500 teams we might be in for a surprise. The Browns are riding a wave of momentum thanks to the play of Brian Hoyer who is throwing for fun and is 2-0 since getting the starting gig.  The Bills probably have more offensive weapons yet there is an inconsistency to EJ Manuel's play along with injury concerns over running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Saints at Bears
Jay Cutler finally had his bad game and will want to bounce back in this shoot out against Drew Brees and the 4-0 Saints.  However, this is a match-up of two decent offences; yet player of the month Jimmy Graham is having a purple patch of form as well as some receiving yards for Darren Sproles.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Patriots at Bengals
The Patriots having won by 7 at Atlanta on Sunday night, face another tough road trip to the Bengals who are smarting after a shock loss to the Browns.  The Bengals will be hoping to pressure Brady like they did against Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago.  However, Brady showed signs of clicking with his young receiving core.  The Bengals will need to attack the run defence of the Pats without Vince Wilfork whose ruptured Achilles means he is done for the season.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Lions at Packers
The Packers come off a bye week and the Lions have a spring in their step.  If the Detroit defence and vaunted front seven can unsettle Rodgers like they did Cutler, and Rodgers has looked susceptible to pressure versus Bengals.  Yet you feel Rodgers has more weapons and the Packers need to stop a rampant Reggie Bush who is the real star of the Lions offence.
Prediction: Packers by 3

Chiefs at Titans
If Locker was fit the Titans would have been favourite for me, yet the Chiefs are playing solid mistake free football led by Alex Smith and the great play of Jamaal Charles who is rushing big and catching out of the backfield for big yards. Whilst fans of Dwayne Bowe will feel aggrieved at this, the defence of the Chiefs is making huge plays as Michael Vick and Eli Manning will attest to.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Seahawks at Colts
This should be a great one. The Colts are making noise and are being heard.  The Seahawks had a huge win on the road at Houston after being 20 points down to win in overtime led by a Richard Sherman pick six off Matt Schaub.  Andrew Luck will be targeted but also tempted to throw down field, and Trent Richardson might have a big day.  Another stat this week was that Marshawn Lynch has less yards per carry on the road than when at home. A tough one to predict.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

Jaguars at Rams
Not the greatest spectacle on paper,  a possibility for the Jaguars perhaps to score double-digits yet the Rams will require a response and will have the chance if they can get the run going.  Do not expect fireworks.
Prediction: Rams by 7

Ravens at Dolphins
This writer was not a fan of the Dolphins before the season, yet they have the potential to be a playoff team due to the consistency of Ryan Tannehill and this under-rated defence.  They will have another chance to make a statement such as their victory over the Falcons against Joe Flacco, who threw five (FIVE) interceptions versus the Bills last week. The Ravens also ran the ball only nine (NINE!!) times, a sheer waste of Ray Rice's ability and yet the Dolphins run defence is pretty good.
Prediciton: Dolphins by 5

Eagles at Giants
1-3 versus 0-4 in the awful NFC East. Eli Manning has no protection and the Chip Kelly offence could not keep up with Peyton Manning. This match will be decided by the play of LeSean McCoy against a run defence that is non-existent; pay note fantasy fans.
Prediction: Eagles by 7

Panthers at Cardinals
Carolina might have too much for the Cardinals who are plainly a hot and cold team.  The Panthers got a win before their bye week thanks to utilising the power of Cam Newton's prowess out of the pocket.  The Panthers might goad Carson Palmer to throw considering Rashard Mendenhall is not getting much joy with the rushing.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Broncos at Cowboys
Can the Cowboys come up with a plan to slow down the accurate and precision machine of Peyton Manning's led offence that averages 40+ points a game.  Manning has no interceptions and 16 touchdowns, whilst sharing the joy for touches with Welker, the Thomases and Eric Decker.  Romo can sling it but can he sling it enough versus these Broncos? Probably not.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Texans at 49ers
The Texans keep beating themselves and the 49ers are seemingly turning the corner thanks to getting back to the sort of defence that got them to the Super Bowl last year, and with Aldon Smith away from the team more players are coming to the party.  Schaub will probably not have enough and with Arian Foster not producing, the 49ers D will have too much.
Prediction: 49ers by 6

Chargers at Raiders
Terrelle Pryor returns for the Raiders following Matt Flynn stinking out the joint.  They go up against a resurgent Philip Rivers in this AFC West contest, along with Danny Woodhead becoming the focus of the offense. Most of these matchups I have predicted thus far have been picking the better defence over a weaker defence; in this case you pick the better quarterback.
Prediction: Chargers by 10

Jets at Falcons
The Falcons need to win this otherwise they will be an incredible four games behind the Saints if they beat the Bears. The Falcons came close against a good Patriots side, but the comeback was too late.  Whilst the Jets defence has turned some heads you do wonder if they will be able to contain Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, who had a career day on Sunday. Career day at the age of 37, yeah its about time.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

My thanks to the boys at DundeeNFL who hosted me as we talked the Week 4 action, follow this link to the podcast