Beware The LA Rams

BEWARE THE RAMS

After a thrilling Week 10 of NFL action where a lot of divisional and intra-conference action (teams facing each other for the first time in four years) it was the match-up at the tremendous new stadium in Inglewood, home to both Los Angeles teams that turned heads.

The Los Angeles Rams hosted the once rampant Seattle Seahawks - whose wings have now definitely been clipped following a 5-0 start to the season and an MVP calibre start by Russell Wilson - have now lost 3 out of the last 4 to land on a 6-3 record following the Rams 23-16 victory yesterday.

The scoreline marks it out as a tight affair but the Rams forced three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble on the QB), they had 33 minutes of the clock due to their three headed monster at running back (Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers) to hog the ball, yet it is the wealth of receiving talent at Jared Goff's disposal that jumps out - three receivers with over 50 yards (Josh Reynolds - 94, Tyler Higbee - 60 and Cooper Kupp - 50) as well as six receptions for Robert Woods - helped them amass 302 air yards to marry that 106 rushing yards off of 29 rushing attempts.

Yet it is the defence that again is resolute, while playing the Seahawks the numbers will inflate due to the structure of the game changing with Russell forcing plays they were restrained to 248 passing yards, top receiver Tyler Lockett had only 66 yards off of 5 grabs. 

The Rams allow on average 199.7ypg in passing and 96.8ypg on the ground; these are stellar numbers in the scheme of a season that is altering as a more pass happy league and a season where many teams are having success on the ground as the season draws on - think of DeAndre Swift and Antonio Gibson.

They have the best defender in the league in Aaron Donald who heaps pressure on the QB but he was overshadowed by his teammates - Leonard Floyd (3), Terrell Lewis (2) and Michael Brockers (1) - who combined for six sacks on Wilson yesterday.

This defence will be tested over the last seven games on the season no doubt. They travel to Tampa Bay for Monday Night football next week where the Bucs seemed to find the balance on offense following the egg laid against New Orleans with Roland Jones having a 98 yard touchdown amongst a huge day for himself.

There follows  back-to-back division tussles at San Francsico and on the road at Arizona; injuries have scupped the Niners attempt to defend their conference title while the darling Cardinals with Kyler Murray are atop the NFC West standings on a 2-0 division record; the two games between the Rams and Cardinals will most likely dictate who gets the home field divisional round playoff game and maybe even the overall #1 seed if the Saints cannot maintain fluidity if Drew Brees misses time with his rib injury.

After the first of the Arizona contests is an AFC East hosting of the Patriots and the sorry Jets before ending with a holiday double-bill of Seattle on the road and Arizona at home in the new year perhaps for the division title.

It promises to be an interesting end for the most competitive division in the NFL - the balance of the Rams is what stands out (passing offense, ground attack, stellar defence) against the Cardinals who are creative and riding a sea of consistency currently due to the air attack of Murray to his illustrious receivers. 

However, do not discount the Seahawks who are dearly missing the running back tandem of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde who are both injured at least to take the onus off of Wilson to make magic happen always - if they get the ground force back the schedule is not awful. After this Thursday where they meet the Cardinals again they have a four game stretch of at Philadelphia, v Giants, v Jets and then in the nations capital to face the franchise before ending with Rams and at 49ers. On the face of it that is five winnable games on paper if they get healthy and still have Russell Wilson under centre.

Fascinating to see if two or even three teams from the NFC West make the now seven team playoff structure.

NFL 2015 Week 2 Preview



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Okay, so firstly the breakdown of Week 1:

Pittsburgh @ NEW ENGLAND 21-28 Y

GREEN BAY @ Chicago           31-23 Y

Kansas City @ HOUSTON       27-20 N

Cleveland @ NY JETS               10-31 Y

Indianapolis @ BUFFALO          14-27 Y

MIAMI @ Washington                 17-10 Y

Carolina @ JACKSONVILLE      20-9 N

SEATTLE @ St. Louis           31-34 OT N 

New Orleans @ ARIZONA           19-31 Y

DETROIT @ San Diego              28-33 N

Tennessee @ TAMPA BAY         42-21 N

Cincinnati @ OAKLAND              33-13 N

BALTIMORE @ Denver               13-19 N

NY GIANTS @ Dallas                   26-27 N

PHILADELPHIA @ Atlanta            24-26 N

MINNESOTA @ San Francisco     3-20 N

So a very Detroit looking 6-10 but as I said in my Week 1 preview, there are always a lot of surprises to be had and a lot has been learnt. 

However, I had my heart set on Buffalo and I am pleased I went with the Ryan Bills, it was my
upset special for the weekend and the dominant defensive display by the Bills against Andrew
Luck who had a rough day due to the constant change of looks that Rex Ryan gave him.  In the end the scoreline flatters the Colts who were just bad all day on the offensive side scoring both their touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  

As for the Bills, I for one thought they would be the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC East this season and they get a chance to test their credentials when they host the Super Bowl champions on Sunday with Tom Brady facing off against Rex Ryan again.  Brady was in command against the blitz this week versus Pittsburgh but the front 7 of the Bills is a totally different proposition and will be one of the games to watch this Sunday.

Here are my picks for Week 2:

Denver @ KANSAS CITY

NEW ENGLAND @ Buffalo

TENNESSEE @ Cleveland

Houston @ CAROLINA

ARIZONA @ Chicago

San Diego @ CINCINNATI 

Detroit @ MINNESOTA 

Tampa Bay @ NEW ORLEANS

ATLANTA @ NY Giants

San Francisco @ PITTSBURGH

ST LOUIS @ Washington

BALTIMORE @ Oakland

MIAMI @ Jacksonville

Dallas @ PHILADELPHIA 

Seattle @ GREEN BAY

NY Jets @ INDIANAPOLIS 

Match of the Week

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Seattle Seahawks (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0)

In these previews you want to try and avoid picking the same teams and give some coverage to other teams. On the face of it thee are two matches of the week, but seeing as I covered the Cowboys at home to the Giants, it is best to look at the repeat of last year's NFC Championship game as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.

In a reversal of home field advantage, the Super Bowl finalists Seahawks are on the road again to face Aaron Rodgers. Seattle lost in overtime to St. Louis in an indicator as to how difficult the NFC West will be this year with three out of four teams being victorious in week 1. Seattle seemed at odds to garner a momentum in offence as Russell Wilson had only one pass travel further than 10 yards, failing to utilise Jimmy Graham nor Marshawn Lynch. Credit where it is due though, the Rams have an exceptional defensive front 7 led by Aaron Donald, and while a lot of criticism has been hurled at Wilson, it was his leadership that got the game to overtime.

Green Bay meanwhile made short work of Chicago on the road, in a collision of contenders and pretenders. Rodgers mobility in and out of the pocket meant that the Bears could not get any pressure on the QB, and despite the season ending injury to Jordy Nelson, Rodgers makes names out of people and the reunion of James Jones (after an awful spell in Oakland) for two TDs gave Green Bay an easy start.

Of course, this Sunday is a battle of titans but it could well have major play off implications as you can imagine Green Bay eager for the win to go to 2-0 restrict Seattle to a winless record but more importantly hold the tiebreaker when it comes to home field advantage in January. Both teams are so dependent on home field, Packers for climate and Seattle for hostility, and many felt that Green Bay would have won that Championship game had it been in Lambeau.

While the weather should have no bearing on this game in mid September, there is a wave of
momentum currently in Green Bay and they have playmakers in their own front 7 - Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix to stifle the Seattle output.  I fancy the Packers by 6.

Upset of the Week

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and/or

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This is a tough week to call in terms of match ups and records already, but if you were to pick two it would be either Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at home to Miami Dolphins (1-0) who did little to flatter themselves against Washington, needing a 74 yard punt return from Jarvis Landry to get the victory. The Jags have some good wide threats and if Blake Bortles at quarterback can minimise his turnovers and mistakes they have a chance.

As do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) versus the New Orleans Saints (0-1). The Bucs need a statement following their pitiful performance versus the Titans last week at home. If Jameis Winston wants to be considered a legitimate overall No1 draft pick he needs to step up and lead.  The return of Mike Evans will help him, and free up Vincent Jackson who was double covered, and that two wideout threat may well help Doug Martin find running room. The Saints question marks remain on defence giving up 307 passing yards to Arizona, and in Brandon Browner they have a cornerback who gives away silly pass interference penalties frequently, something that may well occur in the matchup with Evans.

Fantasy Advice

- Get on the Mariota express, expect Tennessee to show his legs this week and become a dual threat QB treat. Pity if you're playing him this week
- Mike Evans (Tampa Bay) is back from hamstring injury, expect him to get targets but also help Vincent Jackson in that regard.
- St. Louis Rams defence, best in week 1. Play Washington in Week 2. No brainer
- Expect Steve Smith Jr. (Baltimore) to do some damage on the Oakland D

Supposed Super Bowl

Following the divisional round of play off matches over the weekend where only one road team won but nevertheless every game was tight and entertaining. We are two games away from the Superbowl, the mecca of American Football, fittingly taking place in a desert.

For all four teams left - Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts - are just one game away from the game of immortals. I'd like to take this moment to size up the possible games we could have at Glendale, Arizona on Sunday 1st February.  What possible storylines could we envisage and forsee occuring?

Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots
The team that is on the cusp of greatness goes up against the current dynasty of the NFL.  The defending champion Seahawks go up against the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions when the Patriots did it in 2004 for their third Lombardi trophy in three years.  Russell Wilson v Tom Brady is not so much the storyline as others but more that defence against an offence that can adapt and offer variations.  The last time these two played was two seasons ago when a Richard Sherman interception stopped a possible Brady game winning drive.  The handshake and exchange of pleasantries cemented Sherman's reputation as someone who can back it up off the pitch as well as on it, Brady would be wanting to put the record straight. And winning his fourth ring might just do it. And to think of West Coast muscle versus East coast brain power in the guise of Carroll v Belichick; the tan versus the hoodie.

Seattle Seahawks v Indianapolis Colts
Two of the three top quarterbacks taken in the 2013 draft, Russell Wilson v Andrew Luck.  The champion v the blueprint.  Luck was supposed to win a Super Bowl first but Wilson got to it first.  This would be Luck's legacy on the line, it would not be his last appearance and to spare the continual comparison to Peyton Manning he might want to win his first Super Bowl appearance.  Yet in terms of match up, with no running game to speak of, can you imagine Luck having to throw against this secondary and try to win the game.

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts
A gimpy Aaron Rodgers against a fast improving Colts offensive line with Jonathon Newsome off the edge and Cory Redding.  The only drawback of the Colts win in Denver was the tackling or failure to of CJ Anderson who gained yards when he should have been stopped, imagine a better runner like Eddie Lacy whose workload will be elevated based upon Rodgers fitness.  Luck would prefer to throw on this secondary and if it is a shootout would you not rather have a gunman with two legs.

Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots
The two best quarterbacks of the season going head to head for all the marbles.  Rodgers going for his second Super Bowl, Brady going for his fourth to join his idol Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw in immortality. Should Brady get that elusive fourth ring, remember he has lost the last two Super Bowl appearances, it should put to bed the arguments over the GOAT debate. Brady with a compotent offence may appear to be overly reliant on Rob Gronkowski but that is the beauty of having a beast, try and match up with him which secondaries may do and that leaves options open in the form of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola. Never mind Shane Vereen and LaGarrette Blount in the backfield. And the defensive line of New England led by Vince Wilfork will match up well against Lacy and welcome the chance to reverse the scoreline 26-21 at Lambeau back in Week 13.

With it taking place in the desert not far from the Old West, what finer sight than to see Brady and Belichick head into the sunset with a fourth trophy on their back.

NFL Week 14 review

What did we learn in Week 13?

Well the Seattle Seahawks have possibly punched their ticket to New York in February by securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while not totally tied up, should they go to San Francisco this weekend and win they will be all but their by owning tiebreaks over the 49ers, New Orleans and Carolina who they have all beaten this season thus far.

What Monday night's dominant performance versus the Saints showed was how difficult it is for visiting teams to function on the road in the raucous atmosphere of Seattle - we all know it is loud, but if a team cannot even get play calls right and have to change personnel constantly they do not give themselves much of a chance.  The loud atmosphere induces mistakes from veterans. 

That coupled with the fact that Russell Wilson is turning into a master orchestrator of this offence with options everywhere for him to distribute - run, play action, wide out, tight end, solo run; helped by the now named Legion of Boom defence which makes the great look bad as Brees did on Monday.

I think back to the draft of 2012 and all the talk about who will win a Super Bowl ring first between RG3 and Andrew Luck. Might Russell Wilson, the 3rd round pick who beat Matt Flynn for the starting job, beat them both to the vaunted status of Super Bowl champion.

Other things to consider: the Packers need Aaron Rodgers back asap, Geno Smith should not be dumped but needs to be benched to save his season, Denver will be the No 1 seed in the AFC and Houston could be the team with the No 1 pick in the 2014 draft.

Week 14 predictions

Texans (2-10) at Jaguars (3-9)
The Jags came up big on the road at Cleveland suddenly becoming a fun team to watch with running backs throwing TD passes.  The Texans were 14 points up on the Patriots but in a shoot-out Tom Brady beat Case Keenum.  Keenum is a decent QB but he needs some more time studying.  The Jaguars are oddly the favourite in this encounter and should win.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Colts (8-4) at Bengals (8-4)
The Bengals are still winning without setting the world alight and the same can be said for Andrew Luck. The key to this game will be how well the Bengals D can attack Luck who has taken many beatings this season, and will rely on Donald Brown who is favoured to Trent Richardson at running back. You can run on the Bengals though.
Prediction: Bengals by 4

Falcons (3-9) at Packers (5-6-1)
The Packers are treading water but still have a chance of making the playoffs; whilst Aaron Rodgers has not been cleared he has not been ruled out.  It may ultimately come down to the man himself, but they need him. They still have Lacy and some talent at wide out; however, the Falcons have been playing hard through these awful injuries. They still have Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, and Detroit showed up this poor secondary on Thanksgiving.
Prediction: Falcons by 3 (if Rodgers does not start)

Browns (4-8) at Patriots (9-3)
The Patriots have the chance to further secure the #2 seed behind the Broncos who look unstoppable. The Browns have come close to 6-6 but obviously have had their usual run of bad luck as always.  Brady looks to be back in the groove helped by the return of Gronkowski to full health and Shane Vereen in his best Kevin Faulk impression. Josh Gordon should have another 100+ yard receiving game
Prediction: Patriots by 8

Raiders (4-8) at Jets (5-7)
The Jets will not make the playoffs and you doubt that Rex Ryan will lie down and await the draft.  He benched Geno Smith again, the Raiders did some good things against Dallas on Thanksgiving with Matt McGloin showed some real poise under pressure helped by Rashad Jennings at running back.
Prediction: Raiders by 4 (and £50 to a mate of mine)

Lions (7-5) at Eagles (7-5)
Now Detroit have the lead of the NFC North, a home playoff game is there for the taking, they have to find a key to some consistency. However, Nick Foles rarely turns the ball over and he will be tested by that front 7 for sure.  Expect big numbers for everyone in terms of fantasy.
Prediction: Eagles by 3, over 80 points

Dolphins (6-6) at Steelers (5-7)
The Dolphins impressively went into the Meadowlands and shut down the Jets to get back to .500 and still have the most realistic chance of making the playoffs.  They can maintain that by beating the Steelers who had gained a second wind but seem to have run out of steam again due to injuries and ageing.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Bills (4-8) at Buccaneers (3-9)
This should actually be quite an entertaining game, but the Bills are somewhat like the Browns in that their record should be better whilst the Bucs have done better than people suspected they would.
Prediction: Bucs by 4

Chiefs (9-3) at Redskins (3-9)
Kansas City need to get back on the W bus after two defeats to the Broncos and a solitary shoot out loss to San Diego; luckily they face the woeful Redskins who still play a terribly sub-par RG3 who is not the man he was last season.
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Vikings (3-8-1) at Ravens (6-6)
The Ravens will win this one, but Adrian Peterson will be the beast he always is.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Titans (5-7) at Broncos (10-2)
The Broncos won two big games in three weeks sandwiching a close loss in New England. Whilst much is made of Manning's aversion to cold weather, the AFC must go through the Mile High to get to New York. After 4 TDs for Eric Decker last week, which WR will be the popular target, whilst that was merely a match-up decision, expect Welker/D.Thomas to get their fair share of targets this week.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Rams (5-7) at Cardinals (7-5)
The Cardinals still have ambitions of making the playoffs, but they require the 49ers to slip up and then beat them in the last weeks of the season.  The Cardinals are doing well with Carson Palmer who is finding Fitzgerald/Floyd frequently. That's a lot of f's
Prediction: Cardinals by 6

Giants (5-7) at Chargers (5-7)
The Chargers are another side with a false record, but they should beat the Giants whose momentum has waned and were helped by the Redskins faux pas on Sunday night.
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Seahawks (11-1) at 49ers (8-4)
The Seahawks put down a marker for the rest of the season, and they have the number of Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offence.  The 49ers have to find an answer to that D and also attempt to stop a rampant Russell Wilson. Good luck
Prediction: Seahawks by 7

Panthers (9-3) at Saints (9-3)
The Saints this week will be the team benefiting from the 2nd loudest home field. However, we know what the Saints can and will do at home. This is the test for these Carolina Panthers, who have avoided banana skins, overcome the Patriots and impressed generally. This is the game for them to make people stand up. The Saints found it difficult to stop Wilson's play action and run option with either himself or Marshawn Lynch. The Panthers have a great run attack whilst Greg Olsen is getting good numbers.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Cowboys (7-5) at Bears (6-6)
Josh McCown v Tony Romo; this should be a good one.  Alshon Jeffrey has had two 200+ yard receiving games this season, the Cowboys have a poor secondary so McCown may have some fun. But then so will Tony Romo, who is in greater sync with his receivers presently.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3

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