Beware The LA Rams

BEWARE THE RAMS

After a thrilling Week 10 of NFL action where a lot of divisional and intra-conference action (teams facing each other for the first time in four years) it was the match-up at the tremendous new stadium in Inglewood, home to both Los Angeles teams that turned heads.

The Los Angeles Rams hosted the once rampant Seattle Seahawks - whose wings have now definitely been clipped following a 5-0 start to the season and an MVP calibre start by Russell Wilson - have now lost 3 out of the last 4 to land on a 6-3 record following the Rams 23-16 victory yesterday.

The scoreline marks it out as a tight affair but the Rams forced three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble on the QB), they had 33 minutes of the clock due to their three headed monster at running back (Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers) to hog the ball, yet it is the wealth of receiving talent at Jared Goff's disposal that jumps out - three receivers with over 50 yards (Josh Reynolds - 94, Tyler Higbee - 60 and Cooper Kupp - 50) as well as six receptions for Robert Woods - helped them amass 302 air yards to marry that 106 rushing yards off of 29 rushing attempts.

Yet it is the defence that again is resolute, while playing the Seahawks the numbers will inflate due to the structure of the game changing with Russell forcing plays they were restrained to 248 passing yards, top receiver Tyler Lockett had only 66 yards off of 5 grabs. 

The Rams allow on average 199.7ypg in passing and 96.8ypg on the ground; these are stellar numbers in the scheme of a season that is altering as a more pass happy league and a season where many teams are having success on the ground as the season draws on - think of DeAndre Swift and Antonio Gibson.

They have the best defender in the league in Aaron Donald who heaps pressure on the QB but he was overshadowed by his teammates - Leonard Floyd (3), Terrell Lewis (2) and Michael Brockers (1) - who combined for six sacks on Wilson yesterday.

This defence will be tested over the last seven games on the season no doubt. They travel to Tampa Bay for Monday Night football next week where the Bucs seemed to find the balance on offense following the egg laid against New Orleans with Roland Jones having a 98 yard touchdown amongst a huge day for himself.

There follows  back-to-back division tussles at San Francsico and on the road at Arizona; injuries have scupped the Niners attempt to defend their conference title while the darling Cardinals with Kyler Murray are atop the NFC West standings on a 2-0 division record; the two games between the Rams and Cardinals will most likely dictate who gets the home field divisional round playoff game and maybe even the overall #1 seed if the Saints cannot maintain fluidity if Drew Brees misses time with his rib injury.

After the first of the Arizona contests is an AFC East hosting of the Patriots and the sorry Jets before ending with a holiday double-bill of Seattle on the road and Arizona at home in the new year perhaps for the division title.

It promises to be an interesting end for the most competitive division in the NFL - the balance of the Rams is what stands out (passing offense, ground attack, stellar defence) against the Cardinals who are creative and riding a sea of consistency currently due to the air attack of Murray to his illustrious receivers. 

However, do not discount the Seahawks who are dearly missing the running back tandem of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde who are both injured at least to take the onus off of Wilson to make magic happen always - if they get the ground force back the schedule is not awful. After this Thursday where they meet the Cardinals again they have a four game stretch of at Philadelphia, v Giants, v Jets and then in the nations capital to face the franchise before ending with Rams and at 49ers. On the face of it that is five winnable games on paper if they get healthy and still have Russell Wilson under centre.

Fascinating to see if two or even three teams from the NFC West make the now seven team playoff structure.

NFL Regular Seaon Review 2015

This might be a different review. As I will look back on the division predictions I made previously on my blog for both the AFC and NFC, and give my thoughts on each division, leading into an overview of the Wildcard playoffs

AFC East
Prediction: New England – Miami – Buffalo – NY Jets
Actual: NE – NYJ – BUF – MIA

The winner of the division was never in doubt post Deflategate, but the dominance of the Patriots as the best team in the AFC was put in jeopardy by their constant injury struggles. The loss of Dion Lewis was a big negative as with LaGarrette Blount also sidelined, New England have no pure running back although Steven Jackson can hopefully alleviate some concerns. The return of Julian Edelman will give added security on third down where the Patriots have been woeful of late.
As for the rest of the division, you felt this was the year a wildcard team could materialise, yet the Jets did what they do best and came up short at the end, albeit versus their former coach Rex Ryan who suffered with injuries and consistency in Buffalo. As for Miami, they fork out bundles of cash to free agents and get nothing back; Tannehill put into doubt his viability for a big contract and Suh did not beef up a defence that demanded improvement.

AFC North
Prediction: Baltimore – Cincinnati – Pittsburgh – Cleveland
Actual: CIN – PIT – BAL – CLE

This is my egg on face call as I picked the Ravens to go all the way, but the loss of Terrell Suggs in the first week depleted their defence which had a novice secondary, then Joe Flacco,  Justin Forsett and Steve Smith all ended up on IR, prompting a salvage mission of a season. At least they did not succumb to the wooden spoon behind the mess that is still the Browns. Either Johnny Manziel wants out or he is just bad, he might well be shipped or traded now.
Andy Dalton remains the new king of regular season by being pretty much regular and steady until a featured thumb led to AJ McCarron taking over. The Bengals defence was much touted but that fell away as the season went on. Great job by the Steelers to make the playoffs with a high octane offence with Antonio Brown to the fore. They are a team to avoid but the two rivals go head to head in Cincy in the playoffs.

AFC West
Prediction: Denver – Kansas City – San Diego – Oakland
Actual: DEN – KC – OAK – SD

Despite Peyton Manning having the worst statistical year of his life, more interceptions than touchdowns, the Broncos led by a stellar defence to take blame away from Manning before his injury and then the impressive Brock Osweilier meant the Broncos kept the Chiefs at bay and thanks to an OT victory over New England at home got the No.1 seed although the possibility of either the Chiefs or even the Steelers could give Denver fits. And does Manning start?
As for the Chiefs they won 11 straight to face Houston in the playoffs, rich reward to get the weakest AFC division winner. Andy Reid and Alex Smith have marshalled the team after the awful 1-4 start and the loss of Jamaal Charles to give KC an edge and toughness. The return of Justin Houston for the Houston match up is key perhaps.
San Diego were woeful, no potency on offence and with one eye on a move to Los Angeles, the team played home games to virtually away crowds. And it was pleasing to see the Oakland Raiders improve significantly to 7-9 thanks to a leap by Derek Carr and the rookie Amari Cooper. Although they lost steam, there is something brewing in Oakland. And thank Charles Woodson for an incredible career.

AFC South
Prediction : Houston – Indianapolis – Jacksonville – Tennessee
Actual: HOU – IND – JAX – TEN

The only division I predicted correctly as my punt on the Texans overpowering Andrew Lick came true. Well not really. In the worst division in the NFL, the Texans survived longest as the Colts could not do much without Luck and the Texans got enough from Brian Hoyer and then Brandon Weeden to advance, all without Arian Foster for most of the season, thank God they had DeAndre Hopkins have a great season.
Jacksonville showed significant improvement from Blake Bortles and their receiving core and a fully fit TJ Yeldon at running back next year will be interesting.
Tennessee had moments with Marcus Mariota but the lack of talent across the roster meant they have the number 1 pick in the draft and are in a position to get a host of picks as Mariota did look the part, but will he be reunited with Chip Kelly, who departed the Eagles.

NFC East
Prediction: NY Giants – Dallas – Philadelphia – Washington
Actual: WAS – PHI – NYG – DAL

The toughest division to call provided the biggest surprise as the Washington franchise won the NFC East and ask Do you like that? Yes, Kirk Cousins we do. A 6-2 record at home and a formidable fortitude lead to the 10 win season, they could well spring one more surprise versus the Green Bay Packers this weekend. Washington are red hot at home and Green Bay have had their issues on the road.
The division was a cluster stuff of sub par football. The New York Giants should have been 9-7 instead of 6-10 and sending Tom Coughlin to his next job of haunting Bill Belichick and Tom Brady permanently. The Giants had no run game to take some pressure off of Odell Beckham Jr.
The Eagles were a mess in terms of personnel and the contract to DeMarco Murray was a mistake in light that Ryan Mathews was the better back, Chip Kelly’s exit in Week 17 was. It surprising though he does deserve another crack somewhere be it San Francisco or Tennessee, the most likely destinations.
Dallas suffered as their best players Tony Romo and Dez Bryant missed significant periods of the season, if fully fit they can hit certain heights next year and the Number 5 pick in the draft is a blessing without forking out in free agency again.

NFC North
Prediction: Green Bay – Minnesota – Chicago – Detroit
Actual: MIN – GB – DET – CHI

I correctly called the Vikings a playoff team yet they get the Seattle Seahawks visiting having won the division by winning in Lambeau in Week 17. Minnesota have shown just enough edge in their play and the returning Adrian Peterson has given them a winning edge. Can they go all the way is hard to say. Green Bay started off great but have looked anything but convincing with solid performances meeting woeful ones especially the road shocker at Arizona.
Detroit ended 7-9 and but for some rub of the green and defending Hail Marys better they could have nipped the Packers to the playoff berth yet they have big question in the offseason concerning free agent Calvin Johnson. And Chicago go from bad to worse, a boat of injuries denied them momentum but they need some leadership and free agent finds you feel to inject life into them.

NFC West
Prediction: Seattle – Arizona – St. Louis – San Francisco
Actual: ARI – SEA – STL – SF

Credit to the Arizona Cardinals who were the better team in the division although when the Seahawks woke up - or removed Jimmy Graham from their offence – they reminded why they are a force to be
reckoned with. Seattle much like Pittsburgh are the team you want to avoid.
St. Louis flattered to deceive despite a great defence, Nick Foles did not do enough to get plays out of their star players although Todd Gurley is the perennial silver lining for the Rams.  San Francisco sank you felt but still had five wins with Blaine Gabbert after Colin Kaepernick was disposed of, they sacked Jim Tomsula and are now flirting with the idea of Chip Kelly, who might give them a shot of adrenaline but in this division you need muscle and composure exemplified by the Cardinals and Seahawks.

NFC South
Prediction: Carolina – Atlanta – Tampa Bay – New Orleans
Actual: CAR – ATL – NO – TB

Carolina have the best record in football, 15-1, and they deserve immense credit due to the great balance of a lock down defence led by Josh Norman and Luke Kuechly, but certain MVP Cam Newton has done wonders considering his receiving core is not on par with other teams, Ted Ginn Jr?!? but Greg Olsen is probably the second best tight end now behind Gronkowski.
Atlanta started 5-0 and did not make the playoffs. Who is to blame? They remained competitive but the play of Matt Ryan with countless turnovers in the red zone did a disservice to a teams record but overall did not deserve a playoff berth.
The party is over in New Orleans as Sean Payton is likely departing, poor Rob Ryan defence led to terrible losses from which no team can recover. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got some great momentum for themselves in Jameis Winston’s rookie year – a lot of the team return next year and they could well grow into a viable play off threat much like the Vikings did this year.

Play off Predictions
Washington over Green Bay
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Seattle over Minnesota

Follow me @NextToTheAisle

NFL 2015 Week 2 Preview



v
 

Okay, so firstly the breakdown of Week 1:

Pittsburgh @ NEW ENGLAND 21-28 Y

GREEN BAY @ Chicago           31-23 Y

Kansas City @ HOUSTON       27-20 N

Cleveland @ NY JETS               10-31 Y

Indianapolis @ BUFFALO          14-27 Y

MIAMI @ Washington                 17-10 Y

Carolina @ JACKSONVILLE      20-9 N

SEATTLE @ St. Louis           31-34 OT N 

New Orleans @ ARIZONA           19-31 Y

DETROIT @ San Diego              28-33 N

Tennessee @ TAMPA BAY         42-21 N

Cincinnati @ OAKLAND              33-13 N

BALTIMORE @ Denver               13-19 N

NY GIANTS @ Dallas                   26-27 N

PHILADELPHIA @ Atlanta            24-26 N

MINNESOTA @ San Francisco     3-20 N

So a very Detroit looking 6-10 but as I said in my Week 1 preview, there are always a lot of surprises to be had and a lot has been learnt. 

However, I had my heart set on Buffalo and I am pleased I went with the Ryan Bills, it was my
upset special for the weekend and the dominant defensive display by the Bills against Andrew
Luck who had a rough day due to the constant change of looks that Rex Ryan gave him.  In the end the scoreline flatters the Colts who were just bad all day on the offensive side scoring both their touchdowns in the fourth quarter.  

As for the Bills, I for one thought they would be the biggest threat to the Patriots in the AFC East this season and they get a chance to test their credentials when they host the Super Bowl champions on Sunday with Tom Brady facing off against Rex Ryan again.  Brady was in command against the blitz this week versus Pittsburgh but the front 7 of the Bills is a totally different proposition and will be one of the games to watch this Sunday.

Here are my picks for Week 2:

Denver @ KANSAS CITY

NEW ENGLAND @ Buffalo

TENNESSEE @ Cleveland

Houston @ CAROLINA

ARIZONA @ Chicago

San Diego @ CINCINNATI 

Detroit @ MINNESOTA 

Tampa Bay @ NEW ORLEANS

ATLANTA @ NY Giants

San Francisco @ PITTSBURGH

ST LOUIS @ Washington

BALTIMORE @ Oakland

MIAMI @ Jacksonville

Dallas @ PHILADELPHIA 

Seattle @ GREEN BAY

NY Jets @ INDIANAPOLIS 

Match of the Week

 v

Seattle Seahawks (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0)

In these previews you want to try and avoid picking the same teams and give some coverage to other teams. On the face of it thee are two matches of the week, but seeing as I covered the Cowboys at home to the Giants, it is best to look at the repeat of last year's NFC Championship game as the Seattle Seahawks travel to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers.

In a reversal of home field advantage, the Super Bowl finalists Seahawks are on the road again to face Aaron Rodgers. Seattle lost in overtime to St. Louis in an indicator as to how difficult the NFC West will be this year with three out of four teams being victorious in week 1. Seattle seemed at odds to garner a momentum in offence as Russell Wilson had only one pass travel further than 10 yards, failing to utilise Jimmy Graham nor Marshawn Lynch. Credit where it is due though, the Rams have an exceptional defensive front 7 led by Aaron Donald, and while a lot of criticism has been hurled at Wilson, it was his leadership that got the game to overtime.

Green Bay meanwhile made short work of Chicago on the road, in a collision of contenders and pretenders. Rodgers mobility in and out of the pocket meant that the Bears could not get any pressure on the QB, and despite the season ending injury to Jordy Nelson, Rodgers makes names out of people and the reunion of James Jones (after an awful spell in Oakland) for two TDs gave Green Bay an easy start.

Of course, this Sunday is a battle of titans but it could well have major play off implications as you can imagine Green Bay eager for the win to go to 2-0 restrict Seattle to a winless record but more importantly hold the tiebreaker when it comes to home field advantage in January. Both teams are so dependent on home field, Packers for climate and Seattle for hostility, and many felt that Green Bay would have won that Championship game had it been in Lambeau.

While the weather should have no bearing on this game in mid September, there is a wave of
momentum currently in Green Bay and they have playmakers in their own front 7 - Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews and Ha-Ha Clinton Dix to stifle the Seattle output.  I fancy the Packers by 6.

Upset of the Week

 v

and/or

 v

This is a tough week to call in terms of match ups and records already, but if you were to pick two it would be either Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) at home to Miami Dolphins (1-0) who did little to flatter themselves against Washington, needing a 74 yard punt return from Jarvis Landry to get the victory. The Jags have some good wide threats and if Blake Bortles at quarterback can minimise his turnovers and mistakes they have a chance.

As do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) versus the New Orleans Saints (0-1). The Bucs need a statement following their pitiful performance versus the Titans last week at home. If Jameis Winston wants to be considered a legitimate overall No1 draft pick he needs to step up and lead.  The return of Mike Evans will help him, and free up Vincent Jackson who was double covered, and that two wideout threat may well help Doug Martin find running room. The Saints question marks remain on defence giving up 307 passing yards to Arizona, and in Brandon Browner they have a cornerback who gives away silly pass interference penalties frequently, something that may well occur in the matchup with Evans.

Fantasy Advice

- Get on the Mariota express, expect Tennessee to show his legs this week and become a dual threat QB treat. Pity if you're playing him this week
- Mike Evans (Tampa Bay) is back from hamstring injury, expect him to get targets but also help Vincent Jackson in that regard.
- St. Louis Rams defence, best in week 1. Play Washington in Week 2. No brainer
- Expect Steve Smith Jr. (Baltimore) to do some damage on the Oakland D

NFL NFC 2015/16 Season Preview

Following on from my AFC preview last week, it is now the turn of the National Football Confernce to come under the NTTA microscope. And where else to start but in the divisional home of the Super Bowl runners, Seattle Seahawks

NFC West
This division for the last few years was a straight battle between the Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers. Yet the Seahawks have the upper hand ever since Russell Wilson came to the fore and the legendary 12th man crowd made them impossible to play at home.

Having come within two yards of winning the Super Bowl for a second consecutive season, there is still the competitive drive within the organisation due to the head coach Pete Carroll, QB Wilson and the vaunted defensive unit called the Legion of Boom led by the irrepressible Richard Sherman.

Following the faux pas and wrong play calling, Marshawn Lynch remains as the lead back yet finally Wilson has a legitimate red zone target in Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, who has left the New Orleans Saints in search of some finger jewellery.

Seattle are the red hot favourites agin in this division, but the runner up could well be different. The 49ers are in meltdown as a franchise, numerous retirements of key personnel coupled with off the field behaviour has decimated their roster, never mind the departure of influential leader Jim Harbaugh to his alma mater of Michigan University in the college ranks. A lot will depend on Colin Kaepernick whose play last year left a lot to be desired at times, and the team will do well to reach five wins for the year and avoid last place.

St. Louis Rams have made some upgrades in search of a playoff spot in a division and conference where 9 games is required at minimum. In defence they have added Nick Fairley from Detroit to join names such as Michael Brockers, sack king Robert Quinn and James Laurinaitis . They have Nick Foles at QB who will offer some much needed assurance and precision at the position to help playmakers like Todd Gurley, Tavon Austin and Tre Mason.

Arizona Cardinals welcome back Carson Palmer, but can he survive an entire season on the injury front with a receiving core led by Larry Fitzgerald. The defence of the Cardinals led by Tyrann Mathieu as well as Patrick Peterson, who is the punt return specialist. Can Bruce Arians conjure up some more magic or will the Cardinals be a team full of talent unable to get over the hill?

Prediction: 1. Seattle 2. Arizona 3. St. Louis 4. San Francisco

NFC North
The division with the leagues best quarterback can now lay claim to having the leagues best running back. Never has the return of one player had such an anticipation of expectation for one team.  Minnesota Vikings exceeded many peoples predictions last year following the season long suspension to Adrian Peterson for off the field conduct. Yet those same Vikings won 9 games with some great play by rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater, who grew into the role as QB and leader as the season went on. The return of all day AP make Minnesota a legitimate play off team.

And a threat to the dominance of Aaron Rodgers and his Green Bay Packers. Many feel the Packers can be the team to defeat Seattle if they get the chance, but like Seattle, the Packers need home field advantage to maintain superiority over their rivals.

Detroit Lions still have Matthew Stafford and Calvin 'Megatron' Johnson, yet they have lost Fairley and Suh from a stellar defence last year, and the continual reliance on this QB-WR duo will again be too much for Detroit to overcome.


Chicago Bears had a pretty bad season last year but have not seemingly changed much apart from employ coach John Fox from Denver. Jay Cutler is still at the helm with Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffrey. The draft pick of Kevin White from West Virginia, will give them a much needed boost in the same way Mike Evans and Odell Beckham did for their teams last season. However, the defence still looks ageing and the need to pressure rival QB or stop Peterson has not been addressed.

Prediction: 1. Green Bay 2. Minnesota 3. Chicago 4. Detroit

NFC South
After so many years of back and forth between Atlanta and New Orleans, there is a gradual sea change in this division based upon who has the best QB. Now that might be legitimate in most NFL divisions but three years ago you would have picked any team with Drew Brees leading the team. Now it seems time is catching up with the Big Easy, a terrible defensive showing last year gave Brees too much to do and the lack of weapons meant they were chasing their tail. The departure of Jimmy Graham also means this again will be a long season for the Saints.

That incapability led to the Carolina Panthers and Cam Newton to step in, all the more surprising considering he did it without Steve Smith, but the growth of Kelvin Benjamin and the maturity of Newton was encouraging. This makes the Panthers the tentative favourites but in a division where 8 wins can get you in the play offs, that is an unusual situation to get home field.

The Atlanta Falcons need to bounce back and with Matt Ryan throwing to Julio Jones and Roddy White, they have every chance.

The most surprising storyline will probably come from Tampa Bay who with the overall #1 pick selected Jameis Winston, who lost only one college game at Florida State, his last game versus
Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks. Although a tough season on the field, Winston showed unbelievable strength of character and leadership to win 11 games, some from double digit deficits. This temerity
and stubbornness will serve Lovie Smith and his Buccaneers well, as the closeness between the four division rivals is too close to call. Winston also has impressive rookie Mike Evans as a deep threat although Winston is not renowned for his arm strength.

Prediction: 1. Carolina 2. Atlanta 3. Tampa Bay 4. New Orleans

NFC East
For so long the toughest division to call, based on the long held rivalries between the four huge franchises. And it is no different this year either.

Dallas Cowboys won the division last year, and have the potential to go deeper this year if Tony Romo and Dez Bryant fulfil full seasons. Yet it is on defence that is the worry, the selection of Randy Gregory in the draft and Greg Hardy in free agency smacks of a team who irrespective of individual players off the field issues, they are going all in to win big this year whilst Romo can still stand upright.

Philadelphia Eagles played a different brand of football, up tempo, lots of plays and score a
lot of points, yet the defence could not match that intensity. The arrival of Sam Bradford will surprise many but if he can stay fit, a big if obviously, he can marshall an offence without risking injury to himself, yet can they overcome the loss of LeSean McCoy whilst Demarcus Murray will find it hard to replicate his personally great season at Dallas this year.

Washington Redskins are a mess and continue to be so long as they have an unfit QB at the helm, the franchise that is a disgrace will struggle to win 4 games this year and a blessing may be to tank the season and get a new franchise QB and end the Griffin era.

Which leaves us  with the New York Giants, who for me have the potential to be the seasons dark horse much like the Minnesota Vikings. A terrible start to the season was rejuvenated by the inclusion of the phenomenal Odell Beckham Jr, who single handedly (literally) won games by doing ridiculous grabs for big plays. This elevated the play of Eli Manning who finished the season on a tear finally having a stellar Wide receiver at his disposal. The improvements on the offensive line will aid Eli and co.

Prediction: 1. New York 2. Dallas 3. Philadelphia 4. Washington

Supposed Super Bowl

Following the divisional round of play off matches over the weekend where only one road team won but nevertheless every game was tight and entertaining. We are two games away from the Superbowl, the mecca of American Football, fittingly taking place in a desert.

For all four teams left - Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts - are just one game away from the game of immortals. I'd like to take this moment to size up the possible games we could have at Glendale, Arizona on Sunday 1st February.  What possible storylines could we envisage and forsee occuring?

Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots
The team that is on the cusp of greatness goes up against the current dynasty of the NFL.  The defending champion Seahawks go up against the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions when the Patriots did it in 2004 for their third Lombardi trophy in three years.  Russell Wilson v Tom Brady is not so much the storyline as others but more that defence against an offence that can adapt and offer variations.  The last time these two played was two seasons ago when a Richard Sherman interception stopped a possible Brady game winning drive.  The handshake and exchange of pleasantries cemented Sherman's reputation as someone who can back it up off the pitch as well as on it, Brady would be wanting to put the record straight. And winning his fourth ring might just do it. And to think of West Coast muscle versus East coast brain power in the guise of Carroll v Belichick; the tan versus the hoodie.

Seattle Seahawks v Indianapolis Colts
Two of the three top quarterbacks taken in the 2013 draft, Russell Wilson v Andrew Luck.  The champion v the blueprint.  Luck was supposed to win a Super Bowl first but Wilson got to it first.  This would be Luck's legacy on the line, it would not be his last appearance and to spare the continual comparison to Peyton Manning he might want to win his first Super Bowl appearance.  Yet in terms of match up, with no running game to speak of, can you imagine Luck having to throw against this secondary and try to win the game.

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts
A gimpy Aaron Rodgers against a fast improving Colts offensive line with Jonathon Newsome off the edge and Cory Redding.  The only drawback of the Colts win in Denver was the tackling or failure to of CJ Anderson who gained yards when he should have been stopped, imagine a better runner like Eddie Lacy whose workload will be elevated based upon Rodgers fitness.  Luck would prefer to throw on this secondary and if it is a shootout would you not rather have a gunman with two legs.

Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots
The two best quarterbacks of the season going head to head for all the marbles.  Rodgers going for his second Super Bowl, Brady going for his fourth to join his idol Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw in immortality. Should Brady get that elusive fourth ring, remember he has lost the last two Super Bowl appearances, it should put to bed the arguments over the GOAT debate. Brady with a compotent offence may appear to be overly reliant on Rob Gronkowski but that is the beauty of having a beast, try and match up with him which secondaries may do and that leaves options open in the form of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola. Never mind Shane Vereen and LaGarrette Blount in the backfield. And the defensive line of New England led by Vince Wilfork will match up well against Lacy and welcome the chance to reverse the scoreline 26-21 at Lambeau back in Week 13.

With it taking place in the desert not far from the Old West, what finer sight than to see Brady and Belichick head into the sunset with a fourth trophy on their back.

NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

After going a quite woeful 1-3 in my predictions in the Wildcard Weekend, it is time to mean business and go totally against the grain with my picks for the Divisional playoffs. This weekend the No 1 and 2 seeds enter the fray of the respective conferences. From the AFC the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots come to play and in the NFC the top ranked Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers arrive after the benefit of a two week break to rest weary bodies and prepare for their perspective opponents.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
In a rematch of the regular season encounter, when Seattle rocked the New Orleans hopes of gaining a bye themselves.  The Saints return to Seattle to derail the Legion of Boom and beat an undefeated team at home.  Seattle have the best defense in the NFL and will ask questions of one of the better offenses, however it is those extra dimensions of the Saints offense that may make this closer on this occasion.  If Brees can avoid overthrowing and over-egging the pudding, and rely on Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram to take some carries to the house.

The Seahawks for me rely too much on Marshawn Lynch, whilst Russell Wilson has shown great maturity in his sophomore season, I feel he does not have the weapons in the receiving core that Brees has (Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Sproles).

However, you feel the intimidatory feel of the ultimate home field advantage will serve Seattle well, although they have not ended the regular season as dominant as they would have intended.

Prediction: Seahawks by 6

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
The Patriots lucked out by having the Bengals eliminated, they get the higher remaining seed. In this case they get the comeback kings the Colts who came from a 28 point deficit at home to the Kansas City Chiefs to give Andrew Luck his first playoff victory.  While Luck was inspirational, let it not be forgotten he threw three interceptions.

That is where I feel the game will be decided, the Patriots secondary led by Pro Bowler Aqib Talib has improved significantly from previous early season nightmares.  Andrew Luck has only one receiver remaining in TY Hilton, and the one-two punch of Donald Brown and Trent Richardson.  Yet the Patriots run defense has been good despite the loss of Vince Wilfork.

New England will probably have the most un-Brady playoff game as they rely on the running back trifecta of Stevan Ridley, LaGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen for screens.  The Colts defense leaks points especially against the run. If NE find form and success with the rush, expect Brady to throw the ball no more than 30 times if that, and go to another AFC Championship game.

Prediction: Patriots by 10

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Carolina beat San Fran 10-9 at Candlestick about six weeks ago in a result that made people stand up and count these Panthers.  However, that was probably the nadir of the 49ers season, since then they have regained Michael Crabtree from injury which has given Colin Kaepernick options with the ball, something he has not had.  Anquan Boldin has had an amazing first season and Vernon Davis has been a stud as always, but Crabtree with his ball handling skills had 125 yards at Green Bay last week.

The Panthers probably could have done without a bye, the SF defensive line will be too much for the Panthers O-line with pressure coming from the edge to force Cam Newton to panic and scramble when they will then plug the gap sufficiently.

The worry of Steve Smith's health means that there are fewer weapons for Cam Newton to find and you cannot run on this 49ers defence. Whilst it is great to see Cam in his first playoff game, you feel it will be a one and done.

Prediction: 49ers by 7

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Chargers are that team that seemingly exists every year in the playoffs; the team that gets hot late on or fortuitously sneaks in using that momentum to gain shocks on teams.  San Diego went on the road to the Bengals and upset them massively, Cincinnati were a bit complacent and over-reliant on AJ Green who they shut down sufficiently forcing Andy Dalton to aim elsewhere and then intercept him twice.  Whilst Dalton was awful in his third successive one and done playoff game, the Chargers deserve huge credit for winning match-ups all over the field.

The game plan of utilizing the running of a healthy Ryan Mathews and the duck and dive of the ever impressive Danny Woodhead led to big gains on plays, managing the clock and frustrating the opposition causing mistakes that they scored off of.

The same plan will be in effect versus Peyton Manning and the high scoring Denver Broncos at Mile High. The altitude and away trip will hold no fear to the Chargers who won at Denver on a Thursday night when Ryan Mathews had over 130 yards and Denver had the ball for only 21 minutes.  If that plan can be carried out properly it can work, and the loss of Von Miller on the Broncos defense will be sorely tested against a Chargers O-line that gives Rivers enough time in the pocket; Rivers is leading this team well marshaling the troops and controlling the tempo.

This could be an upset and the Chargers could do it again.
Prediction: Chargers by 3

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 15 preview

Week 14 reminded us of many things. Yes Peyton can still play in the cold, the Seahawks are a very different team on the road and the Saints are a much better team in a dome.

The NFL also reminded us of the joy of participation, when you couple that with a snow blizzard that the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles played in and through.  It did not stop LeSean McCoy running up 200 plus yards of rushing with two touchdowns to enhance the Eagles playoff potential and again put questions on the Lions' who are now tied with Chicago Bears atop the NFC North with three games to go.

Week 15 predictions

Chargers (6-7) at Broncos (11-2)
The Chargers are still maintaining hopes of making the playoffs but they need to win this tough Thursday night battle on the road at Mile High.  The Broncos are rolling, as they scored 51 last week versus a tenacious Tennessee.  Wes Welker will likely miss the game due to a second concussion in a month, yet Peyton Manning has more than enough weapons at his disposal. Watch out for Julius Thomas back to full health at tight end to have a big day.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Redskins (3-10) at Falcons (3-10)
This could have been a battle between two playoff bound sides instead bad on-field decision making and injury crises have led to this basement battle fodder. Atlanta are not playing awfully, yet could end up with the overall No.1 pick and get Jadaveon Clowney to shore up a battled defence.  They have played hard without sucking, and they should have more than enough to oppose a Washington side who have flattered to deceive pre-season expectation, built around the hopeful return of RG3 that has never materialised.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

Bears (7-6) at Browns (4-8)
Da Bears are rolling with Josh McCown at the helm making few mistakes and scoring more touchdowns.  The Browns are not as bad as their record suggests and in Josh Gordon have one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL currently.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Texans (2-11) at Colts (8-5)
If the Colts win they wrap up the division and a home playoff game, that will likely be versus the Kansas City Chiefs though.  The Colts will not fancy that match-up as their offensive line is woeful and is failing to protect the franchise Andrew Luck. In that same breathe, the Texans have enough defensive lineman to maybe trouble Luck on Sunday. However, the Texans cannot seem to win games presently and it cost Gary Kubiak his job after the most recent loss on Sunday.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Patriots (10-3) at Dolphins (7-6)
The Dolphins were one footstep from being 6-7 and out of the playoff picture, yet Antonio Brown's errant metatarsal (sideline karma is a bitch Tomlin) means the Dolphins got a big road win in the cold of Pittsburgh.  The Patriots will secure the AFC East with victory in the warmer climate of Miami; however, they will have to proceed without Rob Gronkowski who ruptured both his ACL and MCL due to a low but legal tackle.  Tom Brady will still find targets and head to Shane Vereen to benefit the most as the Pats will find a way to win.
Prediction: Pats by 3

Eagles (8-5) at Vikings (3-8-1)
The Vikings lost out to the Baltimore Ravens in a frankly bizarre game on Sunday when five touchdowns were scored in the last 2:03 of regulation. Adrian Peterson may be out this week so Toby Gerhart will get more of the workload.  The Eagles however, will want to win and keep up their momentum thanks to the work of McCoy and Nick Foles who has looked more and more secure of late.
Prediction: Eagles by 8

Seahawks (11-2) at Giants (5-8)
The Seahawks travel East for another road trip, however, unlike last week on the road in San Fran with a team close to their equal this is against the woeful New York Giants who since getting back to 5-6 cannot wait for this season to end and rebuild appropriately.
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

49ers (9-4) at Buccaneers (4-9)
The 49ers will want to maintain their momentum following the vital home win over Seattle, whilst the Bucs  suffered their first lose in five games last week.  The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back and offers a different dimension to their wideout threat, the Bucs will be competitive but cannot see them pulling off the upset.
Prediction: 49ers by 6

Bills (4-9) at Jaguars (4-9)
The Jaguars are on a roll, four wins in five and been impressive with how they have conducting themselves following an 0-8 start. Chad Henne and a returning MJD has helped along with the reliable Cecil Shorts.  The Bills were my tip for a .500 record but the injury to EJ Manuel was something they never recovered from.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Chiefs (10-3) at Raiders (4-8)
The Chiefs properly beat up the Washington NFL team last week, if the ref from the Froch-Groves fight was in charge he might have stopped it after six minutes of the second quarter.  The Chiefs still maintain hope of winning the AFC West however they need to continue winning and hope the Broncos come unstuck. The latter is unlikely, but a win over the Raiders is possible. The Raiders have played better than their record suggests but will they have any answer to Jamaal Charles this week.
Prediction: Chiefs by 12

Jets (6-7) at Panthers (9-4)
The Panthers bandwagon came unstuck in the New Orleans dome last week as Rob Ryan's defence had an answer to the play action, run plays of the Panthers. The Jets are suffering behind the so-so play of Geno Smith who is finding out how tough and intense an NFL season is in comparison to the College set-up.  The Panthers will need to bounce back, with Greg Olsen and Steve Smith going to have good days against the Jets secondary.
Prediction: Panthers by 7

Packers (6-6-1) at Cowboys (7-6)
The Cowboys blew up in windy and cold Chicago, luckily they are back at home and facing a Packers team who will still be without Aaron Rodgers whose collarbone and neck injury has not been cleared. Cowboys are one game behind the Eagles atop the NFC East, they need to win desperately.
Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Cardinals (8-5) at Titans (5-8)
The Cardinals have been the biggest surprise of the NFL season, and the most pleasant as man for man they are lesser than some other more vaunted teams. Considering the division they are in, it is a surprise they have 8 wins already and usually that would be good enough for a playoff spot.  However, they are sitting in 7th position behind the 49ers (9-4) and Panthers (9-4), they need to hope one of those teams slips up in due course especially Carolina who they beat earlier in the season 22-6 at home.
After the Titans they go to Seattle, then host San Fran on the last weekend of regular season. The Panthers host the Saints next week, so the Cardinals are not done yet, but most definitely hopeful.  Carson Palmer has two great receiving targets; Larry Fitzgerald and Malcolm Floyd, and two established running backs in Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington.
Prediction: Cardinals by 7

Saints (10-3) at Rams (5-8)
The Saints are close to wrapping up the #2 seed in the NFC, but they have to avoid this potential banana skin on the road at St. Louis although being indoors in December will surely be a home away from home for Drew Brees and his high scoring offence.
Prediction: Saints by 8

Bengals (9-4) at Steelers (5-8)
Good old fashioned AFC North slugfest in most likely freezing conditions, this will be a big test of the Bengals intentions as they need to win this game to stave off the Ravens revival.  The Steelers will be gutted having been so close to an unlikely last minute victory at home to the Dolphins, nevertheless they will still play hard in spite of not being able to finish better than .500 this year.
Prediction: Bengals by 2

Ravens (7-6) at Lions (7-6)
Two evenly matched teams on paper and record, but indoors the Lions will want to put on a show.  Oddly, rookie Safety Matt Elam has just called Calvin Johnson 'pretty old', which for a 27 year old physical specimen is an odd thing to say.  Whilst no respect was surely meant, where else is Matthew Stafford going to throw on Monday night. Reggie Bush will hopefully be back from an ankle injury to lend his rushing and receiving skills to the Lions party.  The Ravens are doing well to stay in the playoff picture, partly due to the woeful nature of the AFC competition - apart from the top 3 of Denver, New England and KC - however, Ray Rice is getting better numbers and Denis Pitta is back from injury and provides Joe Flacco with a safety blanket of a receiver like Jason Witten for Tony Romo in Dallas.
Prediction: Lions by 4

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 14 review

What did we learn in Week 13?

Well the Seattle Seahawks have possibly punched their ticket to New York in February by securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, while not totally tied up, should they go to San Francisco this weekend and win they will be all but their by owning tiebreaks over the 49ers, New Orleans and Carolina who they have all beaten this season thus far.

What Monday night's dominant performance versus the Saints showed was how difficult it is for visiting teams to function on the road in the raucous atmosphere of Seattle - we all know it is loud, but if a team cannot even get play calls right and have to change personnel constantly they do not give themselves much of a chance.  The loud atmosphere induces mistakes from veterans. 

That coupled with the fact that Russell Wilson is turning into a master orchestrator of this offence with options everywhere for him to distribute - run, play action, wide out, tight end, solo run; helped by the now named Legion of Boom defence which makes the great look bad as Brees did on Monday.

I think back to the draft of 2012 and all the talk about who will win a Super Bowl ring first between RG3 and Andrew Luck. Might Russell Wilson, the 3rd round pick who beat Matt Flynn for the starting job, beat them both to the vaunted status of Super Bowl champion.

Other things to consider: the Packers need Aaron Rodgers back asap, Geno Smith should not be dumped but needs to be benched to save his season, Denver will be the No 1 seed in the AFC and Houston could be the team with the No 1 pick in the 2014 draft.

Week 14 predictions

Texans (2-10) at Jaguars (3-9)
The Jags came up big on the road at Cleveland suddenly becoming a fun team to watch with running backs throwing TD passes.  The Texans were 14 points up on the Patriots but in a shoot-out Tom Brady beat Case Keenum.  Keenum is a decent QB but he needs some more time studying.  The Jaguars are oddly the favourite in this encounter and should win.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Colts (8-4) at Bengals (8-4)
The Bengals are still winning without setting the world alight and the same can be said for Andrew Luck. The key to this game will be how well the Bengals D can attack Luck who has taken many beatings this season, and will rely on Donald Brown who is favoured to Trent Richardson at running back. You can run on the Bengals though.
Prediction: Bengals by 4

Falcons (3-9) at Packers (5-6-1)
The Packers are treading water but still have a chance of making the playoffs; whilst Aaron Rodgers has not been cleared he has not been ruled out.  It may ultimately come down to the man himself, but they need him. They still have Lacy and some talent at wide out; however, the Falcons have been playing hard through these awful injuries. They still have Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, and Detroit showed up this poor secondary on Thanksgiving.
Prediction: Falcons by 3 (if Rodgers does not start)

Browns (4-8) at Patriots (9-3)
The Patriots have the chance to further secure the #2 seed behind the Broncos who look unstoppable. The Browns have come close to 6-6 but obviously have had their usual run of bad luck as always.  Brady looks to be back in the groove helped by the return of Gronkowski to full health and Shane Vereen in his best Kevin Faulk impression. Josh Gordon should have another 100+ yard receiving game
Prediction: Patriots by 8

Raiders (4-8) at Jets (5-7)
The Jets will not make the playoffs and you doubt that Rex Ryan will lie down and await the draft.  He benched Geno Smith again, the Raiders did some good things against Dallas on Thanksgiving with Matt McGloin showed some real poise under pressure helped by Rashad Jennings at running back.
Prediction: Raiders by 4 (and £50 to a mate of mine)

Lions (7-5) at Eagles (7-5)
Now Detroit have the lead of the NFC North, a home playoff game is there for the taking, they have to find a key to some consistency. However, Nick Foles rarely turns the ball over and he will be tested by that front 7 for sure.  Expect big numbers for everyone in terms of fantasy.
Prediction: Eagles by 3, over 80 points

Dolphins (6-6) at Steelers (5-7)
The Dolphins impressively went into the Meadowlands and shut down the Jets to get back to .500 and still have the most realistic chance of making the playoffs.  They can maintain that by beating the Steelers who had gained a second wind but seem to have run out of steam again due to injuries and ageing.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Bills (4-8) at Buccaneers (3-9)
This should actually be quite an entertaining game, but the Bills are somewhat like the Browns in that their record should be better whilst the Bucs have done better than people suspected they would.
Prediction: Bucs by 4

Chiefs (9-3) at Redskins (3-9)
Kansas City need to get back on the W bus after two defeats to the Broncos and a solitary shoot out loss to San Diego; luckily they face the woeful Redskins who still play a terribly sub-par RG3 who is not the man he was last season.
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Vikings (3-8-1) at Ravens (6-6)
The Ravens will win this one, but Adrian Peterson will be the beast he always is.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Titans (5-7) at Broncos (10-2)
The Broncos won two big games in three weeks sandwiching a close loss in New England. Whilst much is made of Manning's aversion to cold weather, the AFC must go through the Mile High to get to New York. After 4 TDs for Eric Decker last week, which WR will be the popular target, whilst that was merely a match-up decision, expect Welker/D.Thomas to get their fair share of targets this week.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Rams (5-7) at Cardinals (7-5)
The Cardinals still have ambitions of making the playoffs, but they require the 49ers to slip up and then beat them in the last weeks of the season.  The Cardinals are doing well with Carson Palmer who is finding Fitzgerald/Floyd frequently. That's a lot of f's
Prediction: Cardinals by 6

Giants (5-7) at Chargers (5-7)
The Chargers are another side with a false record, but they should beat the Giants whose momentum has waned and were helped by the Redskins faux pas on Sunday night.
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Seahawks (11-1) at 49ers (8-4)
The Seahawks put down a marker for the rest of the season, and they have the number of Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers offence.  The 49ers have to find an answer to that D and also attempt to stop a rampant Russell Wilson. Good luck
Prediction: Seahawks by 7

Panthers (9-3) at Saints (9-3)
The Saints this week will be the team benefiting from the 2nd loudest home field. However, we know what the Saints can and will do at home. This is the test for these Carolina Panthers, who have avoided banana skins, overcome the Patriots and impressed generally. This is the game for them to make people stand up. The Saints found it difficult to stop Wilson's play action and run option with either himself or Marshawn Lynch. The Panthers have a great run attack whilst Greg Olsen is getting good numbers.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Cowboys (7-5) at Bears (6-6)
Josh McCown v Tony Romo; this should be a good one.  Alshon Jeffrey has had two 200+ yard receiving games this season, the Cowboys have a poor secondary so McCown may have some fun. But then so will Tony Romo, who is in greater sync with his receivers presently.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Wildcard Preview

After 17 weeks of bone-crunching, mouth-whetting amazing football with ups and downs across the boards and after Black Monday when seven coaches were shown the door, we now have 12 teams remaining across two divisions with eight teams (four in each over two games) starting the Wildcard weekend where teams play for the right to go on the road to a higher ranked conference opponent.  There are some great match-ups starting with the Bengals on the road at the Texans.

#6 Cincinnati v #3 Houston
Oddly for a 6-3 matchup in the playoffs you have a team that has played with momentum in the last few weeks going on the road to face a team that has lost three of its last four games which saw them fall from the No.1 overall seed to No.3 and no bye week. The Bengals have a quarterback who has won a play off game in Andy Dalton, whilst this is Matt Schaub's first play off game as he missed the play offs last year due to injury.

Dalton is getting help from his offensive weapons, Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis is getting good mileage from RB not Adrian Peterson numbers but 100 yards a game is not bad.  And they have AJ Green who is becoming as potent as Andre Johnson, the Bengal defence is playing with fire aswell.

The Texans need to go back to the drawing board they have done away with Arian Foster touches and instead relying on the deep threat of Johnson, yet if the Bengals can tie up Johnson there are no other weapons of variable ability to throw to.

Prediction: Bengals by 3

#6 Minnesota v #3 Green Bay
One week after the Vikings defeated the Packers to enter the play offs, it is a repeat of the match but this time it is on the hallowed turf of Lambeau field.

Whilst Adrian Peterson has been a freak this year, last week it was Christian Ponder's best game as a pro wiht 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns allowed AP to eat up those holes.  Expect Green Bay to press Ponder when he drops back and shut off the bubbles/screens he usually throws.

This is also a different game, last week the Packers who were probably going 80% due to their play off place being assured, will be pumped for this game and wanting to make amends for the last Lambeau play off game when the Giants came in and shocked them.  Plus the Packers have a decent QB in Aaron Rodgers, you may have heard of him - last week he had 300+ yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort.

Prediction: Packers by 8

#5 Indianapolis v #4 Baltimore
This has all manner of storylines, you have the team that left Baltimore the Colts returning with the prodigal son in Andrew Luck, the continuing recovery of Chuck Pagano the Colts coach from leukeamia and now the Ravens' linebacker Ray Lewis has annouced this is his last ride as he is set to retire once the Ravens' play off run ends either in defeat or victory.

The Ravens much like the Packers were assured of a play off berth and were half-hearted versus the Bengals last week; they have a lot of talent still at their disposal in Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.  If the Ravens can use Rice's dynamism effectively as they should do then expect them to run this game.

The Colts are a different animal on the road away from Lucas Oil Field, and whilst Luck has been amazing at times he has still committed turnovers (24 in total) and this defence with a returning Lewis still has Ed Reed on its roster and can generate enough pressure to confuse and disrupt Luck's rhythm.

Prediction: Ravens by 10

#5 Seattle v #4 Washington
This is the game of the weekend and the toughest one to predict owing to both teams having X factors under centre in Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III - both rookie quarterbacks who have led teams with low expectations to the play offs.

RG3 is a dynamic player, but has been helped by Alfred Morris his running back whose big numbers have helped open up receivers and led to few turnovers by the Redskins.  The defence has improved significantly under Jim Haslett and they may be able to create pressure.

Seattle is very much similar to Washington, a rookie quarterback helped out by a good running back. The only difference is that Seattle's O-line does allow pressure to get to Wilson, yet their defence has been huge for the team in general.  That makes this game all the more tougher to predict, it will be close but expect the Seahawks defence to get to RG3 whose mobility has not been the same since he sat out a game a few week ago.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3

That would make my Divisional play offs these:
AFC - Bengals @ Broncos and Ravens @ Patriots
NFC - Seahawks @ Falcons and Packers @ 49ers