NFL 2015 Week 4 Preview

Week 3 was a much better instance of picking with yours truly going for a 12-4 in the week, raising me to 26-22 for the season. The few games I got wrong were close games including my upset special of Tennessee at home to the Colts who were trailing with 8 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter before Andrew Clutch came to the fore again to get the 35-33 victory on the road and avoid going 0-3 to start the season.  As for Tennessee, following the resounding opening day victory they seem to be stifled on offense not helped by the fact that Mariota is having to throw more than necessary and the lack of running back quality is clearly affecting their production.

Other oversights included the Oakland Raiders winning their first back to back games since 2012 on the road at Cleveland; Derek Carr again threw for over 300 yards with rookie Amari Cooper again receiving for over 100 yards for the second consecutive game. Cooper is seemingly tying up the Rookie of the Year contest before the end of week 6.  Cooper has two consecutive 100+ yardage games in his rookie season, do you know none of Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown or AJ Green can lay claim to that stat in their rookie season.  Something is happening in the Bay Area, and it is good to see.

Elsewhere, some teams remain winless and frankly pitiful.  The Saints, Bears, Lions are all winless and in the case of Chicago planning for next season already with the release of Jared Allen to the Carolina Panthers; a great additon for the Panthers in that QB heavy division.  Yet the most surprising loss of the weekend, although I picked correctly, was the way the Buffalo Bills dismantled the Miami Dolphins 41-14 on the road with such ease.  Miami were meant to be a main challenger versus the New England Patriots, this result means the Bills will lay claim to that right for this season while the Dolphins defence which includes such Pro Bowlers as Suh, Cameron Wake and Brent Grimes looked unidentifiable from the defence we expected.

Week 4 is the first week to have bye weeks, with the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans having a week off. So while Brady goes dancing at his sister's wedding and Mariota goes back to Hawaii. Here are my predictions:

Predictions

BALTIMORE @ Pittsburgh

NY JETS @ Miami 

(at Wembley Stadium)

NY Giants @ BUFFALO

CAROLINA @ Tampa Bay 

OAKLAND @ Chicago

Kansas City @ CINCINNATI

Houston @ ATLANTA

Jacksonville @ INDIANAPOLIS

PHILADELPHIA @ Washington

Cleveland @ SAN DIEGO

Minnesota @ DENVER

GREEN BAY @ San Francisco

St. Louis @ ARIZONA

Dallas @ NEW ORLEANS

Detroit @ SEATTLE

Match of the Week

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New York Jets (2-1) versus Miami Dolphins (1-2)



So on paper not one to really write home about, but the fact that this game is happening in my near hometown is reason enought to shout about it. The first of three International Series games taking place at Wembley Stadium this year sees for the first time an actual divisional game taking place on overseas soil. This is a huge filip for the International reach of the game that an AFC East rivalry game is taking place in London, as so often they are mis-matches and unfair contests such as the recent games involving Jacksonville and when the Patriots decimated the St. Louis Rams.  However, for once we could have a close contest as both teams have to contend with travelling over the Atlantic and both will be wanting to regain momentum following tough home defeats last Sunday.

The Dolphins as mentioned above were pulverised by the rampant Buffalo Bills and gave up 41 points at home.  There offence has struggled to click and but for a Jarvis Landry punt return in week 1 versus Washington they could be 0-3 coming into Wembley.  The offence much like the defence is lacking an identity and leadership, a lot was expected of Tannehill but will he be able to cope with another mean defence in the Jets.

Revis will be hunting Tannehill on Sunday

The Jets lost at home to the Philadelphia Eagles 24-17, having gone 24-0 down in the first half the comeback was too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick to create, yet they have better offensive options with a nice balance of run - Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell - and receiving options in Eric Decker and if fit, Brandon Marshall.  The Jets seem to be a better balanced side on paper and that will probably be the case on the Wembley turf with the Jets flying back to their bye week victorious by 10 points.

Upset of the Week

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Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-3)

While this may not be much of a reach, both teams are dealing with a series of crucial injuries to star players. The Cowboys are without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant until Week 9 or 10 at the earliest. Whilst the Saints missed Drew Brees last week with a rotator cuff injury. 

Luke McCown did a fairly decent job completing 31 of his 38 passes last week in the defeat to Carolina, but it is the lack of running attack that is mystifying for the Saints whose wide receiver depth is weak. If the Saints can stop the run attack of Joseph Randle and Lance Dunbar out of the backfield. A lot rests on Brees being fit to start if he does you can see the team wanting to galvanise the franchise to a first home win in 7 attempts.

Dallas meanwhile showed a great deal of versatility in their play last week in their defeat to Atlanta. Brandon Weedon did a nice job in the first quarter but after gaining the upper hand they went to the run game and pretty much restricted Weedon's options downfield. Admittedly they faced an improving Falcons defence and they will not face a wide receiver in the calibre of Julio Jones this Sunday; but perhaps this is a perfect storm for the Saints to get that first win of the season. Expect a lot of points in the Big Easy.

Fantasy Advice

- Stick with Charles Clay (Buffalo) as a fill for the resting Gronk.

- Sam Bradford (Philadelphia) might finally be turning the corner for the Eagles.

- Lance Dunbar (Dallas) can rush but also gets plenty of catches

- Ty Henderson (Green Bay) seems to be the 3rd WR now for Packers; good match up versus the 49ers

- If you have Marshawn Lynch (Seattle) bench him for this week; don't risk that hamstring as the Seahawks won't versus Detroit at home.

Check out my other previews:

Week 1 - Week 2 - Week 3

and my feature piece on the Denver Broncos

Peyton's Place

The cream of the AFC West

It seems that the more things change the more they stay the same in the NFL. People get so worried about certain individuals and their performances after one week, the age of social media makes us all judges in the wink of an eye or 140 characters or less. Yet class remains permanent for those who we criticise, with only injuries slowing them down.

Case in point is the twilight of Peyton Manning.  Many fear that he has reached the end of his illustrious career, can he stand up for 16 games. After the week 1 victory over Baltimore, many thought that Manning's body with his worrisome neck injuries would not be able to withstand the continual pass rush which made many observers wince.

Why worry? 3-0 start helps

Yet the Broncos won the game.  Peyton may have lost weapons such as Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas but he still has Demaryius Thomas, and something he has on his side will make the Broncos competitive - a defence that is making plays all around the field. Against Detroit, the D had another interception - two in this game - against Matthew Stafford.

On the road, Peyton threw for 324 yards off a solid 31 of 42 throws.  The Broncos are 3-0 and in the ascendency of the AFC West if the Kansas City Chiefs lose to the Green Bay Packers tonight, with only the Oakland Raiders (yes really!) with another winning record in the division.

Can the Broncos go all the way?

Von Miller leads the D

Well that depends on many things not least can Manning stay healthy along the stretch which includes some tasty encounters on the slate - after the bye in Week 7 they face Green Bay, New England, Kansas City and Cincinnati and San Diego at home as well as road trips to Indianapolis, San Diego and Pittsburgh. That could be construed as one of the toughest schedules post bye in the league especially for a team wanting to contend in the postseason.

Can they gain a 13-3 record for the season. Personally I see them entering the bye week 6-0 due to their defensive superiority over the next three teams - Minnesota, Oakland and Cleveland.  But I can see them losing three games at Pittsburgh, San Diego (who are playing better than their record currently) and versus New England or Cincinnati, not to mention the Week 8 shootout versus Aaron Rodgers in Denver, where the edge goes to Denver who will be coming off the bye week to a home contest.

Wade to the Max

Phillips has rejuvenated the Denver D

Credit for the Broncos revival can be the acquisition of Wade Phillips as Defensive co-ordinator, again the defence were stingy affording the high powered Detroit offense 290 total yards and only 28 yards on the ground. That bodes well for the match up next week versus Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings.

As well as the household names on defence such as Von Miller, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib; the depth is being shown by the two people who did grab interceptions in the Motor City.  Bradley Roby's athletic grab in the first quarter set the tone for the defensive display and the fourth quarter interception by David Bruton Jr, doused a possible Lions comeback and led to the Broncos' final touchdown to ice the game.

This depth will be imperative on the stretch especially when the Broncos play such elite quarterbacks performing at a high level after that bye week - Rodgers, Luck, Brady, Rivers (twice), Dalton and a returning Roethlisberger.  The Broncos have given up a total of 49 points in three games, against such high scoring offences this is a must to succeed.

As Chris Harris stated:
“That’s what it takes to win a Super Bowl,” said Harris. “You need everybody. Some games are going to be [Bruton]’s game, some games going to be T.J. [Ward]’s game, some going to be Aqib’s game – as long was we keep taking turns it’ll be looking great for us at the end of the year.”

And I have not even mentioned the pass rush which in addition to Von Miller includes first round draft pick Shane Ray, DeMarcus Ware and Lerentee McCray, who are giving offensive lines fits thus far.  These vaunted playmakers are making plays. Plays that could lead Peyton Manning to the Super Bowl and the perfect finale.

Running on Empty

Where might the Broncos come up short though may be the running game, which again had a woeful performance before injuries reared their ugly head.  CJ Anderson had 18 yards off of 8 carries before leaving the field with a possible concussion, although he passed a test he did not return.  After Anderson passed the test, back up Juwan Thompson (3 carries for 11 yards) left with a neck injury. This left Ronnie Hillman who had 13 yards off of 7 carries albeit a touchdown run also from near the goal-line.

This would be a worry for Denver going forward - something their running backs do not do lightly - if Manning does have an off day and cannot find Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders or the ever improving Owen Daniels then where is the running game to fall back on.  Ronnie Hillman is not the sort of running back to strike fear into defensive lines; whilst CJ Anderson has only garnered 74 yards at an average of 2.3 yards with a longest run of only 14 yards. 

Again not numbers to have defences worrying but if you have Manning tossing the ball as he is, can Denver totally forsake the run and put more pressure on Peyton's ageing and weary shoulders?