NFL Week 4 preview

Welcome back readers

Last week in Week 3 I predicted 12 correct victors in the NFL picking home wins for the Dolphins (v Falcons), Panthers (v Giants) and Titans (v Chargers) as well as picking the Jets and Ravens in close encounters.  Much like everyone else I incorrectly selected the Packers and 49ers over the Bengals and Colts respectively. Regretfully I expected the Eagles to bounce back at home versus Andy Reid and his chefs, sorry Chiefs. 

The Eagles are really cocking up by playing too quickly and not giving their underappreciated defence not enough time to recuperate.  They allowed a competent QB in Alex Smith enough time to keep the ball and churn time off the clock culminating in a nine-minute TD drive in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and did not do many mistakes and got some big time stops and sacks from their defensive line.  The Chiefs may be good enough for a play-off spot if this continues, although they still have to play in their division.

In Week 4, two teams have byes the Packers (1-2) and the Panthers (1-2). The Packers need to get some people fit on offense and the Panthers will feel good following their shut out of the belittled Giants.

49ers at Rams
The Rams beat and drew with the 49ers last year, Jeff Fisher seemingly figuring out the read option system and stopping Kaepernick.  This is not a bad time to play the Niners who have lost two games consecutively and looked very sub-par in both defeats.  Defences have seemingly figured out Kaepernick and they have few weapons on offense.  The Rams have a still under-rated defence and Sam Bradford can expose some secondary worries by stretching the field with Chris Givens.
Prediction: Rams by 3

Ravens at Bills
EJ Manuel looked like the rookie he is at the Jets last week.  The Ravens won without Ray Rice but have a capable replacement in Bernard Pierce available, expect the Ravens to win this one easily but then we said that about the 49ers versus the Colts last week.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Bengals at Browns
Brian Hoyer is not the second coming, but it is a start for Cleveland who traded Trent Richardson to the Colts last week.  Hoyer won his second professional start and hooked up well with Josh Gordon (another trade piece), although please note this was against the woeful Minnesota Vikings who travel to Wembley this week.  The Bengals resolve after taking a 14 point lead but then going 16 point behind to the Packers was most impressive, and that defence is making plays time and time again.  If they can make Aaron Rodgers look more journeyman, what will they do to Hoyer.
Prediction: Bengals by 10

Bears at Lions
A NFC North smash mouth encounter.  Hopefully the Lions will have Reggie Bush back as this will be vital to their outcome of this tie. The Bears defence is back to its illustrious best with return TDs for Major Wright and Julius Peppers; and Jay Cutler is playing solid with Matt Forte getting good numbers also.  This is a battle of two stud recievers to, Brandon Marshall v Calvin Johnson.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Giants at Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll and making mistake-free football.  Alex Smith secures the ball better than anyone, Jamaal Charles is getting runs and passes.  The D-line suffocated Michael Vick last week, sacking him six times.  Eli Manning has been sacked nearly a dozen times already and intercepted nearly the same number; the Chiefs should overpower this transitional Giants team
Prediction: Chiefs by 9

Cardinals at Buccaneers
The word is that rookie Mike Glennon is going to get the start with the Bucs finally fed up with Josh Freeman.  This is unfair of Freeman, as it was not his two defensive mistakes in the first two games to leave them winless.  The Cardinals also have a good defence and the return of Rashard Mendenhall will pay dividends in this one.
Prediction: Cardinals by 3

Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are not a dumb team, and it is doubtful they would succumb to the dumb Jaguars on the road.  They now have the one-two punch of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw to compliment Andrew Luck's peerless throwing.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Seahawks at Texans
Seattle did well to get through the banana skin of the Jaguars last week, but a lot of starters sat the fourth quarter.  This will definitely be more tricky, with the Texans offensive options.  However, it comes down to defences and the Seahawks will flat out bully DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson, if his concussion clears up.
Prediction: Seahawks by 4

Steelers at Vikings (at Wembley Stadium)
Two 0-3 teams headline the first International Series game at Wembley Stadium.  The Steelers did show some life on offence in the defeat to the Bears on Sunday night, and the Vikings have been scoring points but not winning games.  Rushers have had joy versus the Steelers so if AP can get his wheels going he could be the difference maker on this occasion as he has been so many times before. But do not expect a classic
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Jets at Titans
The Titans defence has impressed many, and Geno Smith underthrows and forces some throws at times. Jake Locker like Alex Smith is making few mistakes and Chris Johnson is due a big rushing day, perhaps against the weakest part of the Jets defence.
Prediction: Titans by 5

Redskins at Raiders
RG3 showed signs of life in the loss to the Lions last week.  He threw better and stronger off his legs and it looks like his legs are getting back to match sharpness.  The Raiders had some joy versus the Broncos scoring three touchdowns but Darren McFadden rushed for only 9 yards total. The Redskins may have found the game to turn the corner.
Prediction: Redskins by 3

Eagles at Broncos
In this game, you will see the difference between a high tempo offence and a high powered offence.  Peyton Manning is throwing touchdowns for fun, spreading the love from game to game. Eric Decker had 133 receiving yards and one TD reception coupled with one for Wes Welker and DeMaryius Thomas each.  The Eagles need to even out the time of possession otherwise Manning will control the clock and score at will, which is what he is doing anyway.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Cowboys at Chargers
Would like to think the Chargers can win this one, but they are suffering injuries at inopportune times.  The Cowboys, however, are doing okay with Des Bryant looking to fulfil that immense potential he contains and the defence doing okay.
Prediction: Cowboys by 6

Patriots at Falcons
This is a huge encounter for both teams.  The Patriots will want to maintain the 100% record in case the Dolphins lose on Monday night and the Falcons dare not fall three games behind the Saints should they triumph versus the Dolphins.  Two big offences go head to head.  Tom Brady looked to have clicked with his receivers better this week and there is a certain tight end, Rob Gronkowski, expected to start at last this week and the defence of the Patriots has been a nuisance all season thus far.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Dolphins at Saints
A great match up for MNF with the impressive Dolphins playing the seemingly restored Saints. Both teams are 3-0 so someone is going to go home unhappy.  The Saints have the better defence plus that raucous home crowd as their 12th man; although they need to get pressure to Ryan Tannehill who continues to prove the doubters wrong week on week.
Prediction: Saints by 4

Finally, can I extend a pleasant thank you to the Americarnage (@Americarnage) crew who gave me a very surprising plug for my blog on their latest podcast.  Many thanks Gents and I look forward to meeting up with you all soon.

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Wildcard Preview

After 17 weeks of bone-crunching, mouth-whetting amazing football with ups and downs across the boards and after Black Monday when seven coaches were shown the door, we now have 12 teams remaining across two divisions with eight teams (four in each over two games) starting the Wildcard weekend where teams play for the right to go on the road to a higher ranked conference opponent.  There are some great match-ups starting with the Bengals on the road at the Texans.

#6 Cincinnati v #3 Houston
Oddly for a 6-3 matchup in the playoffs you have a team that has played with momentum in the last few weeks going on the road to face a team that has lost three of its last four games which saw them fall from the No.1 overall seed to No.3 and no bye week. The Bengals have a quarterback who has won a play off game in Andy Dalton, whilst this is Matt Schaub's first play off game as he missed the play offs last year due to injury.

Dalton is getting help from his offensive weapons, Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis is getting good mileage from RB not Adrian Peterson numbers but 100 yards a game is not bad.  And they have AJ Green who is becoming as potent as Andre Johnson, the Bengal defence is playing with fire aswell.

The Texans need to go back to the drawing board they have done away with Arian Foster touches and instead relying on the deep threat of Johnson, yet if the Bengals can tie up Johnson there are no other weapons of variable ability to throw to.

Prediction: Bengals by 3

#6 Minnesota v #3 Green Bay
One week after the Vikings defeated the Packers to enter the play offs, it is a repeat of the match but this time it is on the hallowed turf of Lambeau field.

Whilst Adrian Peterson has been a freak this year, last week it was Christian Ponder's best game as a pro wiht 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns allowed AP to eat up those holes.  Expect Green Bay to press Ponder when he drops back and shut off the bubbles/screens he usually throws.

This is also a different game, last week the Packers who were probably going 80% due to their play off place being assured, will be pumped for this game and wanting to make amends for the last Lambeau play off game when the Giants came in and shocked them.  Plus the Packers have a decent QB in Aaron Rodgers, you may have heard of him - last week he had 300+ yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort.

Prediction: Packers by 8

#5 Indianapolis v #4 Baltimore
This has all manner of storylines, you have the team that left Baltimore the Colts returning with the prodigal son in Andrew Luck, the continuing recovery of Chuck Pagano the Colts coach from leukeamia and now the Ravens' linebacker Ray Lewis has annouced this is his last ride as he is set to retire once the Ravens' play off run ends either in defeat or victory.

The Ravens much like the Packers were assured of a play off berth and were half-hearted versus the Bengals last week; they have a lot of talent still at their disposal in Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.  If the Ravens can use Rice's dynamism effectively as they should do then expect them to run this game.

The Colts are a different animal on the road away from Lucas Oil Field, and whilst Luck has been amazing at times he has still committed turnovers (24 in total) and this defence with a returning Lewis still has Ed Reed on its roster and can generate enough pressure to confuse and disrupt Luck's rhythm.

Prediction: Ravens by 10

#5 Seattle v #4 Washington
This is the game of the weekend and the toughest one to predict owing to both teams having X factors under centre in Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III - both rookie quarterbacks who have led teams with low expectations to the play offs.

RG3 is a dynamic player, but has been helped by Alfred Morris his running back whose big numbers have helped open up receivers and led to few turnovers by the Redskins.  The defence has improved significantly under Jim Haslett and they may be able to create pressure.

Seattle is very much similar to Washington, a rookie quarterback helped out by a good running back. The only difference is that Seattle's O-line does allow pressure to get to Wilson, yet their defence has been huge for the team in general.  That makes this game all the more tougher to predict, it will be close but expect the Seahawks defence to get to RG3 whose mobility has not been the same since he sat out a game a few week ago.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3

That would make my Divisional play offs these:
AFC - Bengals @ Broncos and Ravens @ Patriots
NFC - Seahawks @ Falcons and Packers @ 49ers

NFL 2012 Week 1 picks

Okay another season, another chance to remove egg from your face and give you my picks for the first Sunday of the NFL season.

This season promises to be good with all teams enjoying a full off-season with no CBA strike and bargaining occuring.  The players asked for less physical practices, yet injuries are still happening.  Some teams have been affected by such injuries such as Minnesota Vikings with Adrian Petersen; yet some teams like Kansas City have those returning like Jamal Charles who will change the balance of a side.

Some teams have been affected by contract hold outs like Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville; or a new star on a new team; Peyton Manning starts for Denver, whilst the man he replaced Tim Tebow lines up in a supposed wildcat offence with the New York Jets.

All in all though I cannot wait for the season to start, and having wrongly predicted a New York Giants victory on opening night, I hope my picks are a bit better this weekend

Week 1, Sunday 9th September
Colts @ BEARS - a baptism of fire for the new star rookie QB Andrew Luck facing a tenacious defence of Chicago even without the questionable Brian Urlacher.  Jay Cutler rekindles his partnership with Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte with his new contract will want to get off to a winning start.  Double digit victory, though Luck should still throw 2 TDs

EAGLES @ Browns - Michael Vick v Brandon Weedon; like John Wayne v Randolph Scott. Who you going to pick? But Eagles have too many other weapons, and Andy Reid has won 63% of his road trips, too much experience for the Browns, though will be good to see how Trent Richardson's knee holds up

Rams @ LIONS - personally I like the Rams and think they will improve to maybe 6-10 this season, although on Detroit's home turf it is asking a lot.  Although Jeff Fisher v Megatron will be good; how will the League combat the best receiver in football. Double digit victory.

PATRIOTS @ Titans - the reigning AFC Champions return with more weapons against a quietly rebuilt Titans with Jake Locker at the helm.  Might be closer than people may think, but on paper the quality shines through.

Falcons @ CHIEFS - this is a great opening match-up; Atlanta are one of the better regular season teams yet have no play-off win yet for Matt Ryan. The Chiefs have rallied for Romeo Crennel, and with a 1-2 punch of Charles and Peyton Hillis at running back, and Dwayne Bowe still at wideout, expect an upset in Kansas.

Jaguars @ VIKINGS - not the most mouth watering of encounters but in terms of quarterback play, Christian Ponder is better than Blaine Gabbert right now, and the Viking will win if Petersen starts.

Redskins @ SAINTS - following the news that Johnathn Vilma and Will Smith will be eligible to play this season, this will give the Saints extra motivation to get off to a winning start.  They may not have Sean Payton, but Drew Brees is this team's true leader.  RG3 debuts and expectations are high.

Bills @ JETS - this one has flipped and flopped for weeks, but I nudge it to the Jets as they have the Tebow option for short yardage and wildcat.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is okay but the Jets sometimes know how to win and have not shown us their full hand yet.

Dolphins @ TEXANS - Ryan Tannehill goes on the road for his rookie start at AFC South favourites Houston.  Houston have weapons on offence, yet in spite of losing defensive options will still have too much for a team very much in transition.

49ers @ PACKERS - what a great game for the first week,the two best regular season teams from NFC face off.  The 49ers are better with more weapons at receiver and added Brandon Jacobs, yet this is still Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau, home field advantage still counts for a lot nowadays.

SEAHAWKS @ Cardinals - Russell Wilson is an explosive QB, he will excite people and Pete Carroll has put his neck on the line; Arizona have one of the best receivers in football in Larry Fitzgerald yet they still cannot find a man good enough to throw to him, they have chosen John Skelton.

Panthers @ BUCCANEERS - the Bucs have changed coach, they traded well getting Vincent Jackson from San Diego, drafted well in getting Doug Martin and have a decent QB in Josh Freeman.  The Panthers do have Cam Newton, but again the home team for me on this occasion. The momentum is in Tampa Bay.

Steelers @ BRONCOS - a great contest with Rothliesberger v Peyton Manning in his regular season debut for Denver.  I fancy Manning to come out of the gate here, throwing to numerous and unheralded receivers (hello Eric Decker) who will become household names.

Bengals @ RAVENS - a tasty divisional rivalry match up for Monday Night Football's opener; expect the Ravens and their new no-huddle offence to create even more points and targets for Ray Rice, under the leadership of Joe Flacco.

CHARGERS @ Raiders - whilst the nudge for the AFC West has been given to the Broncos and Chiefs; the Chargers have flown under the radar whilst the Raiders are in turmoil.  If the Chargers can halt Darren McFadden they win the game.