Tuesday, 22 October 2013

NFL Week 8 preview

Week 7 was built up as the week Peyton Manning returned home to Indianapolis, the place he spent the majority of his career and won his only Super Bowl ring at.  The week leading up to this tussle was overshadowed by the tweets and comments of Colts owner, Jim Irsay, some of which was at times derisory.

The Colts won somewhat convincingly, giving them a third victory over a Top 5 team following a home win over the Seattle Seahawks and the road win at San Francisco.  They have beaten those three supreme contenders by a total of 11 points. The three teams have a combined record of 17-1 and that one is Seattle defeating the Niners. 

The question coming into the game was also concerning the physical prowess of Manning himself, he and the Broncos offense has been on fire but against the woeful Jacksonville Jaguars the week before, a game they were meant to win by 30 points and only won by 16, Manning had an interception and fumbled.  It might have been a case of playing within themselves against a lesser opponent (the Jags have lost each of their games by double digits - a record), yet Manning's ball flight and accuracy seemed to diminish from the Cowboys victory on the road. 

Indianapolis had a game plan to attack Manning from his blind side with Robert Mathis leading the charge, and his sack which caused a safety led to Manning suffering immensely being unable to find targets downfield, but credit should be given to the Colts secondary who tied up Decker and Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker had some joy in the fourth quarter getting separation when needed and shorter passes found their target.  However, the Broncos were guilty of some poor play-calling. Having converted a short yardage touchdown with Moreno, the next time they were at the two yard line they handed off to Ronnie Hillman, who has a history of fumbling, and naturally fumbled making it a 9 point deficit instead of one point if Denver converted a two point conversation.

The Colts will feel great and Chuck Pagano should be ecstatic with the defensive performance thus far this season, yet they suffered a season ending injury to veteran Reggie Wayne, who suffered an ACL tear when turning on the field. A cruel injury that may well affect their offense, but the Kansas City Chiefs have shown you do not need a stellar offense if your defence can punch the opposing quarterback in the mouth.

Bye weeks this week for six teams - Chicago, Tennessee, Indianapolis, San Diego, Houston, Baltimore - meaning less games to pick:

Panthers (3-3) at Buccaneers (0-6)
The Bucs are a terribly poor side and to had to injury, Doug Martin has a torn labrum meaning he could be out for the season. So it is all change in the offensive department, although Mike Glennon's arm is still finding Vincent Jackson who had two more TDs this past weekend. The Panthers were too strong for the Rams (30-15) at home on Sunday, Cam Newton needed to have a long look at his own play before their bye week. Newton has returned better numbers, is turning over the ball less and making big plays. Expect them to heap more misery on Tampa.
Prediction: Panthers by 7

Cowboys (4-3) at Lions (4-3)
The Lions are a frustrating bunch, full of so much talent and potential yet they could not get the upper hand of a Bengals side. They still have Megatron whose two TDs showcased his amazing hands and Matt Stafford's belief in his receiver, amazing Stafford only has 4 INTs considering the bombs he throws so regularly.  The Cowboys shut down the Eagles (who have injury issues) and Tony Romo is having a great year, getting people involved and has momentum.
Prediction: Cowboys by 4

Browns (3-4) at Chiefs (7-0)
The Chiefs easy schedule is here still, yet you can only beat who is in front of you.  The vaunted defence had no sacks in the first half against Case Keenum (who had a great debut), yet had five in the second half and made the plays they needed to do. The worry for the Chiefs is their offense is not being productive at the moment apart from Jamaal Charles who is playing through the pain but they restrict turnovers to the opponent as Alex Smith leads them down the field. 
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Dolphins (3-3) at Patriots (5-2)
Following the controversial call to end the Pats-Jets game on Sunday, where Nick Folk has a 56 yard field goal become an easier 42 yard attempt, the Patriots will be pleased to get home to Foxboro.  A win at home to another division rival will help cement the position atop the AFC East. The Dolphins have suffered two awful home defeats to the Ravens and Bills, games they should have won.  Hopefully Gronkowski who got some playing time will continue to get targets and hopefully Brady will aim for shorter passes and stop aiming downfield where his arm just cannot aim anymore.
Prediction: Pats by 4

Bills (3-4) at Saints (5-1)
The Saints come off a bye at home to the Bills who won at the Dolphins with Thad Lewis getting his first NFL win. The Saints are having that nice balance of star studded offence but getting plays on defence from Rob Ryan's scheming.  The Saints should have too much for the weaker Bills.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Giants (1-6) at Eagles (3-4)
The Giants will not have the No.1 pick in the draft, they were never as bad as the record indicated and the zest they showed in the defeat to Chicago paid off with a home victory to the sorry Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night. The Eagles meanwhile lost at home to the Cowboys, their ninth consecutive home defeat - a franchise record, they ended up with Matt Barkley under centre who promptly had three INTs.  The Giants might have turned the corner here and if their D-line can shut down and pressure whomever the QB is, maybe it will be their 2nd win and Phillies 10th home defeat.
Prediction: Giants by 3

49ers (5-2) at Jaguars (0-7)
I'm going to watch this car crash at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, me and my mate are considering having a drinking game of downing a pint for every TD scored. Expect to be drunk by halftime. Its a worrying trend how bad the Jaguars are and how many bad teams there are in the NFL this season.
Prediction: 49ers by 20 pints, sorry points

Jets (4-3) at Bengals (5-2)
The Bengals got another big win on the road at Detroit, the Jets held firm at home to the Pats thanks to their defence making turnovers.  Andy Dalton is a walking interception and if their d-line can shut down the dual running backs, the Jets benefited from Chris Ivory having a stellar day.  The Jets have a limited pool of talent but they are getting results, and if the game is tight they are winning those games. Upset of the week.
Prediction: Jets by 3

Steelers (2-4) at Raiders (2-4)
Two 2-4 teams face off on the west coast, the Raiders are coming off a bye and the Steelers coming off two consecutive victories.  The defence has turned up for the Steelers and if they can pressure Tyrelle Pryor then Big Ben will do enough to win this game in a low scoring affair.
Prediction: Steelers by 3

Redskins (2-4) at Broncos (6-1)
It appears RG3 is back like his old self, his movement is better and he is making plays as well as support from his running crew. Roy Helu had 3 TDs off of 49 yards and Jordan Reed at tight end is an imposing target. The Broncos questionable pass defence was put to the sword by Andrew Luck and his crew of Heyward-Bey, Wayne and Hilton.  The Broncos need to get pressure to Manning, but if Manning can get some consistency in his targets then it should be an easy win, but this is the sort of game RG3 could surprise you in, much like his debut at New Orleans last year. Is it too much to ask for an upset? The Redskins have shown they can score, and although Matt Forte had 3 rushing touchdowns Moreno and Hillman are not his equal
Prediction: Redskins by 2

Falcons (2-4) at Cardinals (3-4)
This game does not interest me, yet it is the type of game Arizona could win, but the Falcons should have Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez back as weapons for Matt Ryan.
Prediction: Falcons by 6

Packers (4-2) at Vikings (1-5)
The Vikings are as bad as the Jags, Browns, Bucs and that is with Adrian Peterson.  The Packers might be without Jermichael Finley who was in ICU on Sunday night, so the receiving core for you fantasy guys will be play Jordy Nelson and Boykin who had 100+ yards and a TD. Otherwise this will be a blowout as the Vikings cannot go pound for pound with Rodgers.
Prediction: Packers by 10

Seahawks (6-1) at Rams (3-4)
Poor Sam Bradford, finally getting some offensive weapons and targets getting good numbers and then boom, one tackle on the sideline means back up Kellen Clemens will be throwing the rock. Surely some Rams fans would prefer Kurt Warner back in the white and blue.  Clemens' first start of the season, is an easy one, against the best defence in football the Seattle Seahawks who will need a win to stay one game ahead of the Niners who will undoubtedly win in London this Sunday. The only bright spot is that the Seahawks are not as formidable on the road as at home, though Russell Wilson had one of his better games of his young career at Arizona last week. The Seahawks have an 11 day rest for this game, the Rams are in confusion before they even start.
Prediction: Seahawks by 12

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

Thursday, 17 October 2013

NFL Week 7 Preview

Week 6 was a weird sort of weekend with some nail-biters and my begrudgingly losing out in my Eliminator Challenge. Last year I went all the way to week 12, this week I felt the Jets could be strong enough versus the winless Steelers; however Pittsburgh coming off a bye after losing at Wembley regained some composure and made Geno Smith look like the rookie he is in a 19-6 blowout if you can call 19-6 a blowout.

My Patriots came from the depths of despair to somehow win at home versus a very good New Orleans Saints to give them their first defeat of the season, as Tom Brady hooked up with Kenbrell Thompkins for an easy touchdown.  It was the atypical Tom Brady touchdown, less than two minutes left no timeouts, drops by receivers but when they caught it they got out of bounds before Thompkins TD grab with five seconds remaining to tie up a 30-27.

What must be said for this NFL season is how mediocre all these teams are apart from the top contenders of New Orleans, Denver, Seattle and San Francisco.  The NFC is the better conference, the AFC is the Broncos to lose as the Patriots are suffering from terrible injuries - add Jerod Mayo to the list of Vince Wilfork along with continued absence of Rob Gronkowski. The Patriots need a redzone target which Gronk will be; whilst Thompkins elevation to number one target is refreshing.

People may say mediocre but everyone is due a bad game, the Broncos should have bulldozed the Jaguars at home yet they only won by 16 points due to two Manning fumbles and an interception.  Complacency, perhaps or more a notion of get through the game without injury to anyone. Yet considering the spread was 26.5, must be disappointing.

Bye weeks this week for Oakland (at least they cannot lose this week) and New Orleans, who after the injury to Jimmy Graham will welcome the break.

Week 7 Predictions
Seahawks (5-1) at Cardinals (3-3)
Home game on a Thursday for the Cardinals, who are undefeated at home thus far.  The Seahawks are a different team on the road which I have mentioned before; Palmer is being competent and forcing less turnovers however he is facing a superior secondary this week.  Watch out for Andre Ellington in the Cardinals backfield, he is getting more carries over veteran Mendenhall and getting decent production. This will be closer than people imagine.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

Buccaneers (0-5) at Falcons (1-5)
Who'd have funk these teams would have one win between them. After the rest, the Falcons will welcome this match-up at home.  Mike Glennon is not the answer in Tampa, who after cutting Josh Freeman might be tanking for one of Teddy Bridgewater, Johnny Manziel and Marcus Mariota. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan and need to get something from a receiver.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

Bengals (4-2) at Lions (4-2)
Two equal records and two equal teams go head-to-head. This might be a tale of the running backs; Reggie Bush has shaken off the left leg injury and is continuing to get good numbers, whilst the Bengals have the Law Firm and Bernard going equal and no-one getting ahead of the other.  The Bengals still have AJ Green who may have some luck against the Lions secondary, however, that depends upon if the Lions D-line get to Andy Dalton first.  Lions are on a roll, thanks to Kris Durham getting receptions due to Calvin Johnson's injury concerns and being double covered.
Prediction: Lions by 4

Bills (2-4) at Dolphins (3-2)
The Dolphins come off a bye week to face Thad Lewis who led the Bills to a close lose at the Bengals, who are not what we thought they were, the Bills miss the dual-option of EJ Manuel.  The Dolphins however, have a more settled quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, however, like Aaron Rodgers he is getting beat up due to a lack of offensive line.  The Bills may have some joy in that respect, however, I feel the Dolphins will be able to score more.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Patriots (5-1) at Jets (3-3)
The Patriots somehow got to 5-1 and now complete the season derby against the Jets on the road.  In a very much defensive battle summed up by Brady being unable to connect with his new receivers and three Geno Smith interceptions.  Whilst Brady can throw and the hope is Gronk returns, Belichick will scheme to unsettle Geno but with the absence of Wilfork and Mayo; the Jets should run, run, run.
Prediciton: Patriots by 3

Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (3-3)
The Eagles defence worry me, as even Mike Glennon had some useful production against them. This week Tony Romo and his new offensive arsenal go up against the Chip Kelly machine.  Nick Foles showed some things last week with his arm, but if the Cowboys can bring pocket pressure Foles' lack of mobility will haunt him. The Cowboys should be in first place by the end of the day.
Prediction: Cowboys by 6

Bears (4-2) at Redskins (1-4)
For a quarterback with bad knees, why does RG3 persist in doing these scrambles to the out of bounds where he could get hit causing more injury.  The Redskins showed little offensive potential, whilst the Bears had half their offence last week thanks to Eli Manning's continued greatness of woefulness.
Prediction: Bears by 10

Rams (3-3) at Panthers (2-3)
Two hot and cold teams who both had huge road wins last week at Houston (where the Rams temporarily retired Matt Schaub) and Minnesota (grieving) respectively.  Cam Newton should be bossing each and every game he plays in, either by his arm or by his immense size out of the pocket on his feet. Yet this will be a game of consistent inconsistency between two inconsistent teams.
Prediction: Panthers by 4

Chargers (3-3) at Jaguars (0-6)
The Jaguars beat the spread last week, the Chargers beat the Colts, an actual opponent.  Philip Rivers seems rejuvenated and resurgent in a division that is on the up and up, and the way the AFC is playing out, the Chargers know they could make the playoffs with nine wins depending upon how the Dolphins, Ravens and Bengals end up. The Chargers should continue here and heap more misery on the worse team in the NFL, although Chad Henne is competent.
Prediction: Chargers by 10

49ers (4-2) at Titans (3-3)
The Titans desperately need Jake Locker to return, whilst the Niners are working the gameplan of Gore first and Kaepernick second.  The Titans are a tough defence, but can they hang with this defence which will target Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Browns (3-3) at Packers (3-2)
If this was at the Dog Pound maybe, but I hope Aaron Rodgers will please have an enormous fantasy game in this one along with the ever impressive Eddie Lacy.
Prediction: Packers by 8

Texans (2-4) at Chiefs (6-0)
Do not be surprised if the Andy Reid mistake that all pundits are expecting, will occur in probably the most winnable game they have.  Saying that, the Chiefs defence sacked Tyrelle Pryor ten (10!) times last week and Pryor can move quickly.  Can TJ Yates move as quickly?
Prediction: Chiefs by 12

Ravens (3-3) at Steelers (1-4)
Never a good time for the Ravens to play the Steelers, but after two defeats on the trot and the Steelers buzzing after their first win.  The Steelers finally play at home after a month, if LeVeon Bell can stay healthy then the Steelers might be good for a W here.  The Ravens had many runs for negative yards and no gain; whilst Bernard Pierce got more yards receiving than rushing.
Prediction: Steelers by 3

Broncos (6-0) at Colts (4-2)
This could be a match of the season, as the surefire veteran future Hall of Fame quarterback takes on the second year surefire future Hall of Fame quarterback.  Only this time, the veteran returns to the ground he built; Lucas Oil Stadium should be called the Thank You Peyton Auditorium. The Colts lost to the Chargers, admittedly on the road, but they might have had one eye on this match.  Peyton has won one shootout with Romo two weeks ago, if it should succumb to a shootout again as it probably will, there is only one result.
Prediciton: Broncos by 5

Vikings (1-4) at Giants (0-6)
The Giants will finally get the great big winless monkey off their back, Eli Manning will throw for no interceptons and Brandon Jacobs will outrush Adrian Peterson.
Prediction: Giants by 7

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

Wednesday, 9 October 2013

NFL Week 6 Preview

Week 5 was an odd sort of week; more injuries by the dozens for vital players, very late kick-offs and surprises to be had.
For myself, I went 8-14 making me 30-15 over the three weeks of doing this preview post.

The injuries sustained including Cleveland Browns quarterback Brian Hoyer who got tangled up on the touchline and ruptured his ACL and is done for the season.  The Browns still beat the Buffalo Bills thanks to a solid defensive effort and Brandon Weedon, who has the job back for the season. The Browns have a tough schedule ahead of it meaning the winning record will disappear, but you felt stronger for their chances with Hoyer under centre.

The surprises were the Indianapolis Colts holding up the Seattle Seahawks at home to give them their first defeat of the season 34-28; meaning the Colts have beaten both the formidable 49ers on the road and now the Seahawks at home.  Due to the continual woes of the Houston Texans and Matt 'Pick 6' Schaub - who threw his fourth consecutive return interception in as many games at San Francisco - the Colts will probably have a home playoff game which in the Lucas Oil stadium will be of benefit to this still young side led by the ever-impressive Andrew Luck.

The game of the week including 99 points as the Denver Broncos went into Cowboys Stadium and won 51-48 thanks to a Matt Prater field goal as time expired thanks to a Tony Romo interception late in the fourth quarter to set up great field position for the undefeated Broncos who are one of three undefeated teams remaining at 5-0 along with Kansas City and New Orleans.  Romo should not get the burden of responsibility as he, was in the ultimate shootout with Peyton Manning (who threw his first interception of the season), threw for 506 yards. The Cowboys defence needs to man up and make some plays and they should still win the NFC East which is just plain woeful.

New York Jets won on Monday Night Football in Atlanta 30-28 thanks to a Nick Folk field goal as time expired and led by a Geno Smith less than two minute drive to get into position.  The Falcons came up short again on a big stage, losing two prime time games in a week on home turf.  Matt Ryan has a 2-6 record on MNF; yet credit to Geno for making the plays needed. The Falcons though are now 1-4, four games behind the Saints and reportedly without Julio Jones who has broken a bone in his foot to coincide with the continual high ankle sprain for Roddy White and the absence of Steven Jackson.

Eli Manning threw some more interceptions, he has 12 through five games thus far.  At the moment the Giants have the No.1 pick in the 2014 draft. The Giants are officially worse than the Jacksonville Jaguars who scored the most points in one game thus far at the St. Louis Rams yet still lost 34-20.

Week 6 predictions (Byes for Atlanta and Miami)

Giants (0-5) at Bears (3-2)
The Thursday Night Football feast continues with a winless team getting prime time air time. Eli Manning has thrown so many interceptions and this week has faces a formidable defence who will be hungry and eager to bounce back from two straight defeats.  They will bring too much pressure to Eli and Jay Cutler just needs to protect the ball and target Alshon Jeffrey who had 200+ yards off of 10 receptions.
Prediction: Bears by 7

Saints (5-0) at Patriots (4-1)
After losing in a monsoon in Ohio, Tom Brady was visibly perturbed by the lack of options he had as the young receivers dropped three of his last eight passes when the ball was there to be caught. The 13-6 road defeat meant Brady snapped his 52 consecutive games with a touchdown.  Hopefully the return of Rob Gronkowski at home will elicit a huge crowd response; they will need it against a very good Saints side whose defence is playing as well as the Drew Brees offence.
Prediction: Saints by 6

Bengals (3-2) at Bills (2-3)
Andy Dalton won a game throwing for 212 yards. The Bengals defence who sacked Tom Brady four times face the hugely respected talent of Thad Lewis..wait, who the hell is Thad Lewis.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Lions (3-2) at Browns (3-2)
Cleveland's three game winning streak will be coming to an end this week due to the presence of Brandon Weedon in the dropback.  The Lions are a formidable defence whose front seven will be eager to target the 29 year old QB who holds on to the ball for too long.  Calvin Johnson will return also to prompt a big day for himself and Reggie Bush who had a quiet game last week.
Prediction: Lions by 10

Raiders (2-3) at Chiefs (5-0)
The Chiefs are 5-0 (3-0 v NFC East) and this is their first divisional match of the season against an improving Raiders led by Tyrelle Pryor.  The Chiefs are still making few mistakes and Jamaal Charles either running or catching the ball is having the sort of season that should be getting more recognition.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Panthers (1-3) at Vikings (1-3)
The Vikings return from their late summer holiday in London with a W, against the frustrating Carolina Panthers.  The Vikings if they play Matt Cassel will probably have too much for this Panthers team who cannot get the best out of Cam Newton.  It will probably be Cassel's last start as the Vikings acquired free agent Josh Freeman after he was cut from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Steelers (0-4) at NY Jets (3-2)
Unbelievably the Jets have a winning record and are one game behind the division leading Patriots who they might join at 4-2 if results go their way this week.  Expect J-E-T-S to hold up their end of the bargain; they are getting offensive options back on the field with Mike Goodson in the backfield, Stephen Hill making plays at wide out and Santonio Holmes possibly returning, as well as the defence holding firm.  Big Ben will be shrinking come Sunday night.
Prediction: Jets by 7

Eagles (2-3) at Bucs (0-4)
The Bucs come off a bye with Mike Glennon firmly placed in the quarterback position yet the defence is not making plays.  If Michael Vick remains injured Nick Foles could well step up into the position as he did in the 2nd half of the Giants game and get results.  From a fantasy perspective avoid LeSean McCoy, Foles is a passer and will seek out DeSean Jackson and Brent Celek alternatively.
Prediction: Eagles by 4

Packers (2-2) at Ravens (3-2)
Felt the Ravens were lucky to escape Miami with a W as the Dolphins did some good things including a pick six of the worst throw ever seen by Joe Flacco.  The Packers after a bye look ready to shake things up with a mixture of passing and Eddie Lacy back holding the rock.
Prediction: Packers by 4

Rams (2-3) at Texans (2-3)
Hmm, this is a tough one to call. Usually two bad or losing sides you look at the quarterback, yet the Texans vaunted defence is not making plays; perhaps signing the ageing Ed Reed was a mistake. Yet the Texans should follow the 49ers game plan to nullify the Rams and Sam Bradford.  If Arian Foster is back to his best then that is probably going to be the difference.
Prediction: Texans by 7

Jaguars (0-5) at Broncos (5-0)
The Broncos are 28 point favourites to win this game...get on it people
Prediction: Broncos by 27

Titans (3-2) at Seahawks (4-1)
The Seahawks lost their first game of the season but on the road.  Back at the boisterous home turf, the intimidation factor might be too much for Ryan Fitzpatrick, whilst the Titans wideouts will be too soft for the Seahawks secondary.
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

Cardinals (3-2) at 49ers (3-2)
After their two game skid, the 49ers look to have got their heads back on straight after the Aldon Smith incident.  The defence are making plays as always, Kaepernick is not making turnovers and Frank Gore keeps on running.  The Cardinals are doing some good things but mostly on the defensive side, yet that is in the secondary. The 49ers O-line will be too strong to protect Gore.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Redskins (1-3) at Cowboys (2-3)
Tony Romo played very well, remember that, and he was finding targets all over the field and yet because of playing Denver it became a throwing contest, so expect DeMarco Murray to have a big day against the weak Redskins defense.  Be interesting to see how RG3's knee looks after a bye.
Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Colts (4-1) at Chargers (2-3)
Philip Rivers is the biggest fake in all of football; he is playing well and yet he faces the Raiders and seemingly freezes. Admittedly he has not many options to throw or hand off to, whereas the Colts are playing with confidence. Interesting to see if Donald Brown gets the goal-line carries over Trent Richardson again for fantasy purposes.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Follow me @JamieGarwood





Thursday, 3 October 2013

NFL Week 5 preview

In Week 4, I got off to the worst start by sheepishly predicting the Rams would upset the 49ers.  However, the Rams could not utilise some good pitch position and some woeful throwing by Sam Bradford led to a sizeable victory by the 49ers who sit 2-2 behind the dominant Seahawks. 
Elsewhere during the week I went 10-5 which adding to the previous week of 12-4, I am now 22-9 over two weeks.

I was even lucky enough to predict the correct margin of victory for the Arizona Cardinals over the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who again succumb to a late field goal.  The Redskins won on the road at Oakland after going 14-0 down.  There were two upsets as the Bills won at home against the Ravens and the Browns convincingly defeated the Bengals at home 17-6. 

There is now a three way tie atop the AFC North between those two teams and the Ravens with all three 2-2; so will the winner of that division be the only representative in the playoffs. The AFC is shaping up to have six from Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Texans and now add the Dolphins. 

I would have considered the Titans but the loss of Jake Locker to a hip strain for a supposed four weeks may disrupt their momentum at a crucial time, the replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the more capable back-ups, however, he needs to have good ball control and avoid turnovers, something Locker had done thus far.

This week's predictions (Byes this week for Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Washington, Tampa Bay)

Bills at Browns
Thursday night football usually means bad football, however with these two .500 teams we might be in for a surprise. The Browns are riding a wave of momentum thanks to the play of Brian Hoyer who is throwing for fun and is 2-0 since getting the starting gig.  The Bills probably have more offensive weapons yet there is an inconsistency to EJ Manuel's play along with injury concerns over running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Saints at Bears
Jay Cutler finally had his bad game and will want to bounce back in this shoot out against Drew Brees and the 4-0 Saints.  However, this is a match-up of two decent offences; yet player of the month Jimmy Graham is having a purple patch of form as well as some receiving yards for Darren Sproles.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Patriots at Bengals
The Patriots having won by 7 at Atlanta on Sunday night, face another tough road trip to the Bengals who are smarting after a shock loss to the Browns.  The Bengals will be hoping to pressure Brady like they did against Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago.  However, Brady showed signs of clicking with his young receiving core.  The Bengals will need to attack the run defence of the Pats without Vince Wilfork whose ruptured Achilles means he is done for the season.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Lions at Packers
The Packers come off a bye week and the Lions have a spring in their step.  If the Detroit defence and vaunted front seven can unsettle Rodgers like they did Cutler, and Rodgers has looked susceptible to pressure versus Bengals.  Yet you feel Rodgers has more weapons and the Packers need to stop a rampant Reggie Bush who is the real star of the Lions offence.
Prediction: Packers by 3

Chiefs at Titans
If Locker was fit the Titans would have been favourite for me, yet the Chiefs are playing solid mistake free football led by Alex Smith and the great play of Jamaal Charles who is rushing big and catching out of the backfield for big yards. Whilst fans of Dwayne Bowe will feel aggrieved at this, the defence of the Chiefs is making huge plays as Michael Vick and Eli Manning will attest to.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Seahawks at Colts
This should be a great one. The Colts are making noise and are being heard.  The Seahawks had a huge win on the road at Houston after being 20 points down to win in overtime led by a Richard Sherman pick six off Matt Schaub.  Andrew Luck will be targeted but also tempted to throw down field, and Trent Richardson might have a big day.  Another stat this week was that Marshawn Lynch has less yards per carry on the road than when at home. A tough one to predict.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

Jaguars at Rams
Not the greatest spectacle on paper,  a possibility for the Jaguars perhaps to score double-digits yet the Rams will require a response and will have the chance if they can get the run going.  Do not expect fireworks.
Prediction: Rams by 7

Ravens at Dolphins
This writer was not a fan of the Dolphins before the season, yet they have the potential to be a playoff team due to the consistency of Ryan Tannehill and this under-rated defence.  They will have another chance to make a statement such as their victory over the Falcons against Joe Flacco, who threw five (FIVE) interceptions versus the Bills last week. The Ravens also ran the ball only nine (NINE!!) times, a sheer waste of Ray Rice's ability and yet the Dolphins run defence is pretty good.
Prediciton: Dolphins by 5

Eagles at Giants
1-3 versus 0-4 in the awful NFC East. Eli Manning has no protection and the Chip Kelly offence could not keep up with Peyton Manning. This match will be decided by the play of LeSean McCoy against a run defence that is non-existent; pay note fantasy fans.
Prediction: Eagles by 7

Panthers at Cardinals
Carolina might have too much for the Cardinals who are plainly a hot and cold team.  The Panthers got a win before their bye week thanks to utilising the power of Cam Newton's prowess out of the pocket.  The Panthers might goad Carson Palmer to throw considering Rashard Mendenhall is not getting much joy with the rushing.
Prediction: Panthers by 3

Broncos at Cowboys
Can the Cowboys come up with a plan to slow down the accurate and precision machine of Peyton Manning's led offence that averages 40+ points a game.  Manning has no interceptions and 16 touchdowns, whilst sharing the joy for touches with Welker, the Thomases and Eric Decker.  Romo can sling it but can he sling it enough versus these Broncos? Probably not.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Texans at 49ers
The Texans keep beating themselves and the 49ers are seemingly turning the corner thanks to getting back to the sort of defence that got them to the Super Bowl last year, and with Aldon Smith away from the team more players are coming to the party.  Schaub will probably not have enough and with Arian Foster not producing, the 49ers D will have too much.
Prediction: 49ers by 6

Chargers at Raiders
Terrelle Pryor returns for the Raiders following Matt Flynn stinking out the joint.  They go up against a resurgent Philip Rivers in this AFC West contest, along with Danny Woodhead becoming the focus of the offense. Most of these matchups I have predicted thus far have been picking the better defence over a weaker defence; in this case you pick the better quarterback.
Prediction: Chargers by 10

Jets at Falcons
The Falcons need to win this otherwise they will be an incredible four games behind the Saints if they beat the Bears. The Falcons came close against a good Patriots side, but the comeback was too late.  Whilst the Jets defence has turned some heads you do wonder if they will be able to contain Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, who had a career day on Sunday. Career day at the age of 37, yeah its about time.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

My thanks to the boys at DundeeNFL who hosted me as we talked the Week 4 action, follow this link to the podcast

The Kings of Summer

Jordan Vogt-Rhodes' film The Kings of Summer was an audience favourite at Sundance this year, and following a brief cinema run it gets a DVD release where it might garner the more wide-ranging audience it deserves.

Utilising a script by Chris Galletta that is both funny and sentimental in equal doses, the film tells the story of three teenage boys in surburban Ohio, who upset by the actions of their parents and another boring summer decide to go live in the woods where they will build a house and live off the land for the summer.

We know that coming-of-age films from Stand By Me follow this thread of thought, whereas that stellar work was more a journey for the boys as they went to discover a body, those boys were always wanting to return home; here the boys are just rebelling as they are not happy with their current situation.

Joe (Nick Robinson) is dismissed at school and wants to be one of the boys, plus he and his Dad, Frank (Nick Offerman) are at continual loggerheads since the passing of Joe's mother.  During a game of Monopoly, Frank swindles some property prompting Joe to phone the police reporting a theft.  Patrick (Gabriel Basso) is the jock with an ankle injury meaning he has to wear a boot all summer; he is not happy at home as his parents drive him crazy, his mother is played by Megan Mullally of Will and Grace fame.  They are joined by the eccentric Biaggio (Moises Arias) who provides the most laughs by way of his odd behaviour.

Galletta's script is quite funny in places and maintains that flow of laughs throughout the film, whereas some scripts can suffer from a willingness and need to get sentimental and dramatic in tone.  The ending involving a scare with nature is played straight but the back and forth of Joe and Frank's dialogue helps the action bounce due to the already cantankerous nature of their relationship.

Special credit to the cinematographer, Ross Reige who shoots with a great eye and gets some great shots in the woods where the boys reside even providing a great crash zoom and focus during the blowout keg party at the start of the film.

Entertaining, well acted and a great addition to the pantheon of coming-of-age films.

The Kings of Summer is out now on DVD (£15.99RRP) from StudioCanal, my thanks to EM Foundation for the screening disc

Thanks For Sharing

Having previously gained some acclaim for his screenplays Keeping The Faith and The Kids Are All Right, Stuart Blumberg was bound to jump into the directing chair sooner than later and here is his debut Thanks For Sharing a somewhat semi-autobiographical tale regarding sex addiction in the city that never sleeps.

A stellar cast combine to create an entertaining comedy drama that focuses on the crippling nature of sexual addiction and how the mantra of one day at a time is important.

Adam (Mark Ruffalo) has been sober of sex for seven years.  He is a well adjusted professional with a phone from the late 1990s to avoid the images of pornography so apparent and available in the social media, even when he is in hotel rooms on business he asks for the television to be removed from his room to save himself. 

Adam meets Phoebe (Gwyneth Paltrow), the girl of his dreams who is everything he imagines and wants to be with; yet his close group friend Mike (Tim Robbins) says he will have to come clean eventually about his addictive past, considering Phoebe discloses her ex was an alcoholic and she is recovering from breast cancer.

The contrasting storyline concerns a young doctor Neil (Josh Gad) who is suffering severely with his sexual addiction, it is affecting his performance at work where he is fired for putting a camera on his shoe so he can see up his bosses skirt.  Neil needs help and starts taking the group therapy seriously with the introduction of Dede (Pink under her real name, Alecia Moore), a young female who lost her best friend after sleeping with her best friend's father.

Mike himself has a storyline with the return of his troubled son, Danny (Patrick Fugit) a junkie who used to steal from his home and they kicked out until he was clean.  Danny comes home and both he and Mike start to see each other in a different light until old wounds start to resurface including Mike's own sexual and alcohol addiction.

The film in the first half is really entertaining with a breeziness of dialogue and delivery helped by the expert performances of the experienced actors; however in the second half the film slowly becomes a little bit too dramatic for its own good.  A fault that could have been aimed at the same writer for his Keeping The Faith screenplay where the running time was too long and he was not too sure where to take it.

A fault to find with the film is that the ensemble is too many with female characters especially somewhat restricted by their roles as either faithful wife, trophy girlfriend and bad girl.  At the start when Adam talks to Neil about not taking the subway (so he avoids grinding up against women) and get rid of his porn collection, you wish for the film to have a somewhat satiricial or perhaps critical eye on the proliferation of sexual images in the everyday media; after a break-up with Phoebe, Adam sees a picture of a runner in a magazine and immediately collates that image with Phoebe which throws him off the deep end. 

When Adam does go dark, Ruffalo comes to the fore as a good actor but he is oddly shown up by Emily Meade in the role of Becky, a former conquest of Adam who has severe Daddy issues.  Becky's issues are in sharp contrast to Adam who quickly reverts to his saintly role and there is always someone in a worse state than you.  Becky is not aware of her problem and is probably reluctant to seek help due to the subsequent stigmatism by her peers, but maybe that is the message of the film, the help is available to those who need it and seek it.

The criticism of the ensemble comes to the fore in the problematic role of Tim Robbins' character Mike.  Is he the father figure to Adam even though they are 10 years apart in age roughly and his back story is not really developed nor explored until he and Danny separate causing some wobbly camerawork when Mike sees some alcohol.

A better film would have been a bro-mance drama between Ruffalo and Gad, the age gap is wide enough for it to be a surrogate big brother role even a father figure role.  Gad also has natural comic talents (fat man on a bike, fat man in leotards) and his charm is enthused by the chemistry with Moore in the significant role of Dede; Gad has the funniest lines and you wonder what sort of film it might have been if that editing process had occurred.

However, it is refreshing to see such an open and honest film in regards to the sensitive nature of sexual addiction.  There are some obstacles and hoops the actors have to jump through, but it is a solid ensemble effort by all and one that does hold your attention in part due to the performances and not the direction.

Thanks For Sharing is out on Friday 4th October

Wednesday, 25 September 2013

NFL Week 4 preview

Welcome back readers

Last week in Week 3 I predicted 12 correct victors in the NFL picking home wins for the Dolphins (v Falcons), Panthers (v Giants) and Titans (v Chargers) as well as picking the Jets and Ravens in close encounters.  Much like everyone else I incorrectly selected the Packers and 49ers over the Bengals and Colts respectively. Regretfully I expected the Eagles to bounce back at home versus Andy Reid and his chefs, sorry Chiefs. 

The Eagles are really cocking up by playing too quickly and not giving their underappreciated defence not enough time to recuperate.  They allowed a competent QB in Alex Smith enough time to keep the ball and churn time off the clock culminating in a nine-minute TD drive in the fourth quarter.  The Chiefs had the ball for nearly 40 minutes and did not do many mistakes and got some big time stops and sacks from their defensive line.  The Chiefs may be good enough for a play-off spot if this continues, although they still have to play in their division.

In Week 4, two teams have byes the Packers (1-2) and the Panthers (1-2). The Packers need to get some people fit on offense and the Panthers will feel good following their shut out of the belittled Giants.

49ers at Rams
The Rams beat and drew with the 49ers last year, Jeff Fisher seemingly figuring out the read option system and stopping Kaepernick.  This is not a bad time to play the Niners who have lost two games consecutively and looked very sub-par in both defeats.  Defences have seemingly figured out Kaepernick and they have few weapons on offense.  The Rams have a still under-rated defence and Sam Bradford can expose some secondary worries by stretching the field with Chris Givens.
Prediction: Rams by 3

Ravens at Bills
EJ Manuel looked like the rookie he is at the Jets last week.  The Ravens won without Ray Rice but have a capable replacement in Bernard Pierce available, expect the Ravens to win this one easily but then we said that about the 49ers versus the Colts last week.
Prediction: Ravens by 7

Bengals at Browns
Brian Hoyer is not the second coming, but it is a start for Cleveland who traded Trent Richardson to the Colts last week.  Hoyer won his second professional start and hooked up well with Josh Gordon (another trade piece), although please note this was against the woeful Minnesota Vikings who travel to Wembley this week.  The Bengals resolve after taking a 14 point lead but then going 16 point behind to the Packers was most impressive, and that defence is making plays time and time again.  If they can make Aaron Rodgers look more journeyman, what will they do to Hoyer.
Prediction: Bengals by 10

Bears at Lions
A NFC North smash mouth encounter.  Hopefully the Lions will have Reggie Bush back as this will be vital to their outcome of this tie. The Bears defence is back to its illustrious best with return TDs for Major Wright and Julius Peppers; and Jay Cutler is playing solid with Matt Forte getting good numbers also.  This is a battle of two stud recievers to, Brandon Marshall v Calvin Johnson.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Giants at Chiefs
The Chiefs are on a roll and making mistake-free football.  Alex Smith secures the ball better than anyone, Jamaal Charles is getting runs and passes.  The D-line suffocated Michael Vick last week, sacking him six times.  Eli Manning has been sacked nearly a dozen times already and intercepted nearly the same number; the Chiefs should overpower this transitional Giants team
Prediction: Chiefs by 9

Cardinals at Buccaneers
The word is that rookie Mike Glennon is going to get the start with the Bucs finally fed up with Josh Freeman.  This is unfair of Freeman, as it was not his two defensive mistakes in the first two games to leave them winless.  The Cardinals also have a good defence and the return of Rashard Mendenhall will pay dividends in this one.
Prediction: Cardinals by 3

Colts at Jaguars
The Colts are not a dumb team, and it is doubtful they would succumb to the dumb Jaguars on the road.  They now have the one-two punch of Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw to compliment Andrew Luck's peerless throwing.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Seahawks at Texans
Seattle did well to get through the banana skin of the Jaguars last week, but a lot of starters sat the fourth quarter.  This will definitely be more tricky, with the Texans offensive options.  However, it comes down to defences and the Seahawks will flat out bully DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson, if his concussion clears up.
Prediction: Seahawks by 4

Steelers at Vikings (at Wembley Stadium)
Two 0-3 teams headline the first International Series game at Wembley Stadium.  The Steelers did show some life on offence in the defeat to the Bears on Sunday night, and the Vikings have been scoring points but not winning games.  Rushers have had joy versus the Steelers so if AP can get his wheels going he could be the difference maker on this occasion as he has been so many times before. But do not expect a classic
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Jets at Titans
The Titans defence has impressed many, and Geno Smith underthrows and forces some throws at times. Jake Locker like Alex Smith is making few mistakes and Chris Johnson is due a big rushing day, perhaps against the weakest part of the Jets defence.
Prediction: Titans by 5

Redskins at Raiders
RG3 showed signs of life in the loss to the Lions last week.  He threw better and stronger off his legs and it looks like his legs are getting back to match sharpness.  The Raiders had some joy versus the Broncos scoring three touchdowns but Darren McFadden rushed for only 9 yards total. The Redskins may have found the game to turn the corner.
Prediction: Redskins by 3

Eagles at Broncos
In this game, you will see the difference between a high tempo offence and a high powered offence.  Peyton Manning is throwing touchdowns for fun, spreading the love from game to game. Eric Decker had 133 receiving yards and one TD reception coupled with one for Wes Welker and DeMaryius Thomas each.  The Eagles need to even out the time of possession otherwise Manning will control the clock and score at will, which is what he is doing anyway.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Cowboys at Chargers
Would like to think the Chargers can win this one, but they are suffering injuries at inopportune times.  The Cowboys, however, are doing okay with Des Bryant looking to fulfil that immense potential he contains and the defence doing okay.
Prediction: Cowboys by 6

Patriots at Falcons
This is a huge encounter for both teams.  The Patriots will want to maintain the 100% record in case the Dolphins lose on Monday night and the Falcons dare not fall three games behind the Saints should they triumph versus the Dolphins.  Two big offences go head to head.  Tom Brady looked to have clicked with his receivers better this week and there is a certain tight end, Rob Gronkowski, expected to start at last this week and the defence of the Patriots has been a nuisance all season thus far.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

Dolphins at Saints
A great match up for MNF with the impressive Dolphins playing the seemingly restored Saints. Both teams are 3-0 so someone is going to go home unhappy.  The Saints have the better defence plus that raucous home crowd as their 12th man; although they need to get pressure to Ryan Tannehill who continues to prove the doubters wrong week on week.
Prediction: Saints by 4

Finally, can I extend a pleasant thank you to the Americarnage (@Americarnage) crew who gave me a very surprising plug for my blog on their latest podcast.  Many thanks Gents and I look forward to meeting up with you all soon.

Follow me @JamieGarwood