Final Four 2017 Breakdown

March Madness reaches its crescendo this weekend. 68 teams started on the road to Phoenix, and now four remain. Of these four we have two number one seeds, two surprises and yet three teams competing in their first Final Four ever and one blue blood, blue chip program.

In this piece I will be breaking down the Final Four teams and the match ups albeit in brief, but if you like what you are reading, please comment and let me know.

On Saturday night we have the two semi-final matchups; South Carolina (7) v Gonzaga (1) followed by Oregon (3) v North Carolina (1).

South Carolina Gamecocks

(SEC, 26-10)

The lowest ranked seed and the best story of the tournament, an embattled head coach whose behaviour on the sidelines sometimes draws more headlines than his teams play. Frank Martin led the Gamecocks to the tournament on a bad run of only three wins in their last 9 games, the last two being defeats to Ole Miss and Alabama - two teams who did not make the tournament.

However, Martin can coach defence and in the same vein of Rick Pitino's Louisville national title winning side of recent years, defence can get you further in a single-elimination format. They have defeated Marquette, Duke, Baylor and Florida, all teams with powerful offences that they have slowed down by being physical. Can they slow down Gonzaga who are as big and as powerful in a good match-up contest. Their own offensive efficiency despite Sindarius Thornwell's heroics might mean this is one game too far; yet they have showed that there is more to the SEC than just John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats.

Gonzaga Bulldogs

(WCC, 36-1)

The King of the mid-majors finally made the Final Four after numerous falls following numerous seedings as No.1. This year, Mark Few has garnered his best team full of versatility owing to the nine-man rotation Few employs. Led by Polish senior guard Przemek Karnowski and junior guard Nigel Williams-Ross; the Bulldogs can mix it up defensively in a low scoring game such as the press versus West Virginia or dominant with their size as they did against Xavier in that 24 point victory in the Elite 8.

The thing to fear of the Bulldogs is the stage itself, this is the first time these players would have played in a venue this size and the same applies to Few also. This is a stage Few and his team were made for, now he has to fulfil all the promise and handle the expectation, firstly to overcome the stellar South Carolina defence then who knows.

Oregon Ducks

(Pac-12, 33-5)

These mighty Ducks have had to overcome the most adversity following the loss of Chris Boucher to an ACL injury before the tournament started, and yet the play of three guys Tyler Dorsey, Dillon Brooks, Jordan Bell have taken turns to dominant games. Against Kansas they dominated the paint owing to Bell's size and favourable matchup versus the Jayhawks smaller guards; this might not happen against the North Carolina Tar Heels who won the battle of the paint versus Kentucky.

The Ducks can have offensive nights and can stop teams but can they do so against the Tar Heels who have modified their tempo from game to game, and who matchup well in the paint with them.

North Carolina Tar Heels

(ACC, 31-7)

The Tar Heels have been here before, Roy Williams has been here before. They are probably the favourites to win it all, and it is the versatility of their line up and potential to alter their game to the opponent. Against Kentucky they took Justin Jackson and his offensive potential and instead told him to go man-to-man on Malik Monk prompting Jackson to shoot less and getting more points from Theo Pinson and game-winner Luke Maye. 

The Tar Heels have other game changers in Kennedy Meeks and Stilman White, while questions remain over the full fitness of Joel Berry who has an ankle injury.  The Tar Heels unlike the other teams in the field, have more answers than questions hanging over them. If Jackson can be unleashed from defensive duties will the Ducks be able to handle a team that can easily score 70+, can the Ducks match that.

Final Four predictions

Gonzaga over South Carolina; North Carolina over Oregon

Title match

North Carolina defeat Gonzaga in a classic and Roy Williams is cutting down the nets.

2017 March Madness Bracket Breakdown

It is that time of year again, when we all become experts on College Basketball and attempt to perfect the bracket and make sense of what RPI and Top 50 wins count for.

March Madness brings the United States to a standstill from the first Thursday of the tournament it is an unofficial holiday with daytime basketball, office pools and lots of chip dip being consumed.

The tournament bracket again provides ample opportunity for storylines. Whenever I complete a bracket I like doing a virtual chalk version and then another that contains upsets. Here though is my thoughtful and realistic breakdown of the tournament region by region

East Region - #1 seed, Villanova Wildcats

The defending National Champions are the overall #1 seed owing to them winning the Big East and Kansas falling at the first hurdle in the Big 12 Championship.  Villanova though have been a solid No.1 seed all season helped by top player Josh Hart who is a dominant rebounder and can score heavily if needed, along with clutch Kris Jenkins still there; Villanova are a side that has experience of winning the tournament and battle hardened, something other teams can only dream of.

In the same region is Duke (2), Baylor (3) and Virginia (5); for me, Virginia are the side to avoid as they are defensively difficult to breakdown and a worry for a Nova side that relies on good 3 point shooting; if they do not drop in that match up Virginia could cause the upset in a potential Sweet 16 tie.

Luke Kennard leads the backcourt of Duke

That leaves the door open for the Blue Devils where the talent has suddenly come together and came to prominence in the ACC tournament which they won; Harry Giles has woken up, they have the headline maker in Grayson Allen (the most hated player in College Basketball) with Luke Kennard the unheralded star of the team.  Through hook or by crook, I fancy Duke to make the Final Four due to talent coming to the fore.

West Region - ##1 seed Gonzaga Bulldogs

The Bulldogs owned the West region No.1 seed all season and only would have lost it if they did not win the WCC in which they were dominant versus St. Marys.  In the same region is Arizona (2), Florida State (3) and West Virginia (4).

This writer likes all of those teams and this is Gonzaga who cannot make the Final Four for love nor money, and there is a lot of potential in those other teams. The Zags are good at both ends of the court, yet will they be able to contend with the length of both Zona and Florida State, or the attritional ball they will face in a potential match up with West Virginia who force turnovers ad nauseam; the Mountaineers play high tempo press and have the game to sustain over a two week period.

Lauri Markkanen - A dominant force for Arizona

And the Wildcats of Arizona in a match up versus Florida State will have too much size and nous for them, led by Lauri Markkanen, a 7 foot force of nature who 73% at the rim and 43.4% on 3 points. He is the most European player since Dirk Nowitzki and are full strength following Allonzo Trier's return from a PED suspension.  A tough region but perhaps the Zags will again come up short, but for many this is there best chance. Yet the Final Four is in Glendale, Arizona. Will the Wildcats of Arizona have a nice homecoming?

South Region - #1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels are the top dog in the toughest region, in which you also face Kentucky and UCLA. This is the blue blood region where the top programs reside. Potentially we have a Sweet 16 showdown between Kentucky and UCLA which would see either Malik Monk or Lonzo Ball go home early; the Wildcats have been a bit hit and miss all season, whilst the Bruins play with a different desire and fire - either way it will be a lights out high scoring contest.

Lonzo Ball - UCLA star

For that reason you feel the winner of that tie will face the Tar Heels in Elite Eight and they should get there with the Butler Bulldogs being the only potential roadblock for them; for me though the Bruins have that canny x-factor potential to reach the Final Four.

Midwest Region - #1 seed Kansas Jayhawks

Fun fact, any time the Jayhawks have been a No.1 seed under Bill Self they have never reached the Final Four. Fun truth, it is going to happen again.

The Jayhawks have been a No.1 seed for much of the season but they have played poorly a lot of times using up a lot of luck and good fortune to overcome huge deficits such as the 14 point down with three minutes left versus West Virginia.  The Jayhawks have the Player of the Year in Frank Mason, but troublesome Josh Jackson needs to keep his head and avoid early foul trouble. A potential Sweet 16 versus conference rival Iowa State is not kind but they could get upset by Caleb Swanigan and his Purdue Boilermakers.

Caleb Swanigan - Averages 18.7pts, 12.6 rebounds a game

The Louisville Cardinals are the perennial tournament team, tough to score against and efficient themselves on offense, whilst Oregon Ducks must overcome the loss of their top defender, Chris Boucher, to an ACL tear.  This region has two dark horse, #10 Oklahoma State who are high scoring and #11 Rhode Island who could be the Cinderella and if they beat Creighton face Oregon.  Not the toughest of regions but one full of surprises though.

Final Four Predictions: 

Duke Blue Devils, Arizona Wildcats, Kansas Jayhawks, UCLA Bruins

Title game: 

Arizona Wildcats versus Kansas Jayhawks