Ravens looking for lift off

For many neutral observers, including yours truly, the Baltimore Ravens were a sneaky Super Bowl contender and I selected them as my opponent to face the Seattle Seahawks in San Francisco in February. However, both of those selections look questionable now.

Whilst I think the Seahawks have been undone by a tough opening road trip - away to divisional rivals St. Louis and a grudge rematch in Green Bay - the Ravens also had an opening dual road trip on the much friendlier West Coast away to Denver and Oakland. The Ravens must have been confident returning home with at least one victory from a demanding road schedule.

However, they return for their home opener versus the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 with an 0-2 record and with a major need of reassessing their expectations for the season following a 19-13 in Mile High and then he gut wrenching defeat in Oakland 37-33 when they gave up a last minute touchdown to Derek Carr who connected with Seth Roberts from 12 yards with 26 seconds remaining.

What was so obvious of the touchdown pass was the blown coverage as Roberts was wide open to receive his reception in the end zone. Yet this was indicative of the whole Ravens performance on defence, Carr went 7 for 9 for 65 yards on the winning drive as well as a career high 351 yard and three touchdowns, this after last week when it was feared he suffered a serious hand injury to his throwing hand last week versus Cincinnati.

This is in stark contrast to the defensive performance by the same Ravens team that shut down Peyton Manning's passing offence. The Raiders gained 448 yard, more than twice what Manning was allowed.

Why did this occur? Were the Ravens complacent facing the lowly Raiders and confident that a repeat of the same defensive performance would get a road win. Yet the defence could not get any pressure to the sophomore Carr, as he was sacked once and he one time Timmy Jernigan did get in Carr's face he was called for roughing the passer.

The loss of Terrell Suggs to a season ending Achilles injury will effect the pass rush and in a division when you have Andy Dalton and Ben Rothliesberger to face you need pressure upfront to help the talented cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Will Hill. Again the Raiders had talent at their disposal with both Michael Crabtree and rookie Amari Cooper both going for 100+ yard games, so perhaps the loss while a shock does have some explanation.

The finger can be pointed more at the offence, who took field goals from Justin Tucker at distances of 21, 22,  31 and 37. Maybe the offence need to be more assertive in the opposition territory, despite Steve Smith Sr. having 150 yards off of 10 receptions and Crockett Gilmore had another productive day with two touchdowns off 5 receptions for 88 yards. Kariam Aiken had 89 yards but Marlon Brown is coming back from injury so only had 2 receptions for 12 yards.

They like the balance of rush and pass but Joe Flacco throwing 45 times and Justin Forsett only getting 15 carries shows no balance. Flacco threw for 384 yards off 32 off 45 attempts and he did not get sacked. Flacco to be considered Eli needs to step up and show some clutch in critical fourth quarter situations.

0-2 is not the end of the season, but that age old statistic does rear its ugly head, only 12% of teams starting winless after two games made he postseason since 1990. The Ravens along with fellow playoff teams Seattle and Detroit Lions are in the same boat. Whilst I think the Ravens are not in as bad a situation as the Lions are, Baltimore will be like Seattle and not push the panic button just yet. Although the need for lift off at home to Cincinnati this coming Sunday is much needed.

NFL AFC Conference 2015/16 Season preview

For any writer to do a full preview on all 32 teams and 8 divisions is a stretch, but I will give it my best shot. They say start with what you know,so I am starting with the AFC, the conference which is home to the reigning Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots.

Much has been made during this offseason about one man and the effect it will have on his team, it is easy to forget there are 31 other teams vying to win this season. And that is from a New England Patriot fan. I am biased, yet I accept this is a weird offseason leading into the preseason. If I was the Patriots I would accept the suspension and get the first four games, which on paper look no worse than a 2-2 record anyway (v Pittsburgh, @ Buffalo, v Jacksonville and @ Cowboys) and then reset the season come October with Brady under centre.

AFC East
My preview begins in the AFC East which thank to some key personnel moves on and off the field for certain teams, the division which has been New England's for nearly a decade is now under threat.  The Miami Dolphins realised that they need not only a capable QB for themselves, but a pass rush to attack the various QBs they face such as Brady. Therefore the signing of Ndamoukah Suh is a masterstroke, a player whose defensive capabilities are limitless but perhaps a change of climate will do him the world of good.

Rex Ryan, left New York, but did not get far heading north to Buffalo, staying in house and bringing a winning mentality to the floundering Bills who have enough offensive weapons to give any defence headaches all year. Expect Shady McCoy to lead the charge and with Sonny Williams the lead wide out in his second year, the pace will be tough to be second to the Patriots.

The New York Jets have a new head coach in former DC of Arizona, but the loss of
Sheldon Richardson for the season is huge for a team whose defence kept them in more games than you would think. Gene Smith is still the QB and that raises enough doubts that they will again be wooden spoon champions in the East.

The reason the battle for second will be tough is that the Patriots will again employ the siege mentality as us against them takes hold. With or without Brady, you anticipate that the presence of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will be sufficient for either Brady or Garrapollo to engineer victories. Much has been made of the losses on defence, no Revis, no Browner but time and again the Patriots have a turnover of defensive personnel and they either draft well or pick up free agents. The general acclaim afforded them for picking up Malcolm Brown in the draft indicates the nerves about the Patriots defence should be put on the back-burner.

Prediction: 1. New England 2. Miami 3. Buffalo 4. New York Jets

AFC North
So often this division has been one of feisty competition and resilience, now it looks like a division of teams failing to fulfil their potential. The theory of consistency holds true, but you can be a good regular season team yet you have to back it up in the playoffs. Something that has alluded the Cincinnati Bengals led by Andy Dalton and the still employed Marvin Lewis. For them it is easy, win the division and win a playoff game. Just one. Only one to have credibility.

Big Ben put up some huge numbers last season but as he ages, the stellar QB needs to adapt and utilise Le'Veon Bell this season to win the division, while the loss of Dick Lebeau will be a loss for any team.

The Cleveland Browns have another QB competition but it is between Johnny Football and Josh McGown, not exactly a great competition to begin with. Despite that who will the winner throw to
with Josh Gordon suspended for the season.

That leaves us with the Baltimore Ravens, a team with a perfect balance on both sides who have
quietly gone about their business and have the least questions to answer on the field. Can Flacco be less of a fluke and prove his elite status.

Prediction: 1.  Baltimore 2. Cincinnati 3. Pittsburgh 4. Cleveland

AFC West
Ordinarily this would be an easy decision and say the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning at the helm would walk this division, get 12 wins minimum and compete with the Patriots for home field advantage. Yet the ageing Manning means the division is up for grabs although 10 wins might be enough for whomever. The biggest problem for Denver is protecting Manning, and Ryan Clady's injury at left tackle (Manning's blind side) will ask serious questions on his power of recuperation. A blessing for the Broncos was the advancement of CJ Anderson who gives Manning a great number to call at the line.

Elsewhere in the division, Kansas City have the most efficient QB but he had no downfield threat to keep them in high scoring games. Still a good defence marshalled by Andy Reid will make the the biggest threat to Denver.

San Diego have a good QB but a lot of questions on their defence and the four game suspension of Antonio Gates for PEDs is a big loss.

Oakland Raiders are not going to the be the laughing stock of the league, but again they have a young QB without much offensive weapons to help him mature and gain wins. Latavius Murray showed flashes of explosive game changing potential last year but is not considered their first choice RB, a mistake if they do not want to be dead last again.

Prediction: 1. Denver 2. Kansas City 3. San Diego 4. Oakland

AFC South
Quite possibly this could be the closest division in the AFC this season thanks to the elevation of one teams defence, and more consistent QB play hopefully coupled with the leader of the packs intention to not protect their star asset. This is the division that will see a real change of scenery.

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are many neutral observers tips to again reach the AFC championship game, yet to this observer the team have not done enough to beef up the offensive line to protect Luck. This makes it al the more remarkable when they play twice against the Houston Texans who can boast a defensive line that includes boy JJ Watt, the now fully fit Jadeaveon Clowney and newly acquired Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle - a scary combination. If the Texans can get a full season out of their QB either the young and maturing Ryan Mallett or dependable Brian Hoyer, some yardage out of Arian Foster (note Foster suffer a groin injury on 3-8-15) then the Texans are not only a division winner but a formidable opponent.

The Texans also have a favourable schedule. They open at home to Kansas City followed by a three game series versu three of the awful NFC South (Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta) so a possible 4-0 start perhaps, followed by a tough trip in Week 10 at Cincinnati for Monday Night Football with New England visiting Houston in Week 14. Not a terrible looking schedule, certainly not one to be scared of.

The other two teams have young QBs. Tennessee got Marcus Mariota and so changed their scheme, can the Hawaiian native lead the team to glory. It is down to expectation and Mariota should be given the keys for a season and not have a lot of pressure on his young shoulders.

Whereas, Blake Bortles is expected to progress and get more wins this year for the Jacksonville
Jaguars, Bortles showed flashes of quality coupled with bad rookie decisions, yet the acquisition of
Julius Thomas from Denver gives him a security blanket and red zone target.

Prediction: 1. Houston 2. Indianapolis 3. Jacksonville 4. Tennessee

Click here for my NFC preview.

Brian and Johnny - Football Conundrum

The Cleveland Browns are in an enviable position at this moment in time in the AFC North Division of the NFL. They are a young team that has struggled for several years and ended up 4-12 last season. They were not helped by the injury sustained to quarterback Brian Hoyer when he showed maturity and much needed stability for a side that suffered with Brandon Weeden as a starting QB the season previously.

Yet during the 2014 draft they hit the jackpot so to speak by grabbing vaunted draft prospect and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel in the first round. Questions then began to circulate that would Johnny Football be the starter for the Browns.

Critics and pundits have long had an opinion that Manziel whilst talented will not be able to translate to the professional level due to his size and lack of arm strength.  Yet Manziel does win football matches as his play in the Bowl victory versus Duke can testify.  However, will Manziel have the same protection as he was afforded at Texas A&M.

The opinion after four days of training camp appears to be that Brian Hoyer will hold onto the starting job following his recovery from a season ending knee injury.  Hoyer is a game manager and a good reader of pressure from defence and rushing linebackers.

The reason we mention about game management is because the Browns are in a position where for once they have to think long term instead of a short term failure.  The AFC North is in a state of flux currently, the Ravens are still suffering a Super Bowl hangover and are now crippled by the max contract they gave to Joe Flacco as well as the suspension given to Ray Rice. The Pittsburgh Steelers are relying on their defence to make plays whilst Big Ben learns Todd Haley's comet of a play book. And the Cincinnati Bengals who have been to he playoffs for three consecutive years remain an uninspiring bunch.

Looking at the schedule the Browns have to play, six games versus those division rivals, they also face the AFC South, NFC South and two very winnable games versus the Oakland Raiders at home and the Buffalo Bills away. They probably get the four better teams at home; New Orleans, Tampa, Indy and Houston, a fortuitous slice of luck from the scheduling computer. They could easily be 5-3 or 4-4 after the first eight games which would be good progress as they would have more wins or as many as last year.

To achieve this they need to give Hoyer the keys; he has greater accuracy with his arm, shows composure in the pocket and is not afraid to use his feet if necessary.  The reason to utilise Manziel is due to his mobility and capability of running plays as the running backs of the Browns depth chart does not inspire confidence.  Yet if Hoyer is making first downs and the play calling for Ben Tate or Chris Ogbonnaya is correct, then things may happen.

In spite of the Josh Gordon suspension hanging over the team, there is talent at their disposal.  Tight end Jordan Cameron is a stud in waiting and made some big plays throughout the season, though petered out near the end of his rookie season. Yet three wide receivers in Miles Austin, Travis Benjamin and Nate Burleson are no slouches at all.

The answer should be an obvious one, let the veteran guide the ship and if he finds it hard to stay afloat let the young whippersnapper off his leash.  Perhaps Manziel could be the first substitution QB the guy who comes on in last quarter to make big plays, stretch defences and cause panic.  Hoyer has to be used as the man to keep games close, as people forget the Browns defence is better than their record suggests.