NFL Free Agency Day 2 Takeaway - Thank You Tom

THANK YOU TOM

After the feeding frenzy of Day 1, the thought was there was not many more storylines to consider except the one person that everybody in the NFL universe wanted to hear from, and at 7.45am Boston time, Tom Brady the greatest Patriots player and the greatest Quarterback the game has ever seen in terms of victories and longevity posted the following statement on

And with that the rest of Day 2 was immaterial, instead it became a day of reflection and goodbyes to No.12 and perhaps after the initial shock and dumbfoundment of it all perhaps it is a time to respect a decision but also how the Patriots perhaps need to fall in line with the rest of the league.

Tom Brady is 42 when the season reconvenes in August pre-season, and as a player he has never had the payday his play naturally deserves and yet Brady ended up taking hometown discounts to stay with the franchise for the betterment of it by giving them the opportunity to purchase talent around him.

This process of 'do your job' and the blueprint has undoubtedly worked culminating in six Super Bowl triumphs, all led by the same QB and head coach with Brady going to the playoffs eighteen times in his career only missing it twice one when he was injured.  Now he is heading for one of three destinations - Tampa Bay to hook up with guru Bruce Arians and a plethora of offensive weapons at his disposal, Los Angeles Chargers which is near to home in California or even Las Vegas to join Jon Gruden and the Raiders. Brady finally has what he wanted, to be coveted to be adored and sought after by admirers something he has never experienced since being drafted in the sixth round by the Patriots in 2000.

Personally, this writer has no problem with Brady's departure while I will miss him and it will take a good few games to realise he is not the QB in Foxboro, there is a part that realises that every dog has its day and Brady who is now the other side of 40 and he has taken a step back in terms of production while you take that statement with a pinch of salt due to the lack of weapons he had following the retirement of Rob Gronkowski and the Antonio Brown furore.

Brady is the greatest player in the Patriots history, and it sticks a little in the stomach that the organisation did not try to entice him to stay offering an option significantly less than those offered by others.  The Patriots need to get in line quick with the rest of the NFL, they are good at finding nuggets through their scouting but they never have paid the stars with people leaving in their prime to get their pay day - this was evidenced the day before by Kyle Van Noy departing for the Miami Dolphins. Van Noy was paramount to the most recent Super Bowl victory over the LA Rams and following another great year he leaves like Richard Seymour did before him.

While this is a sad day for Patriots nation, the cynical nature of this football world means that no-one stays forever, cycles recycle and the world moves on - but never forget what Tom Brady did by defeating the Greatest Show on Turf, leading a dynasty (twice), having one of the greatest passing seasons in history, a few plays from a perfect season.

He was the guy who got up after a Pick 6 in the Super Bowl to lead the Patriots from a 28-3 deficit to the greatest comeback in recent memory. Brady did that and coupled with his performance v Seahawks, he defined himself as the greatest clutch quarterback - a determined competitor who never gave up

We still get to enjoy Tom Brady for perhaps two more seasons, albeit in another uniform, but thanks Tom. You are the greatest.

NFL 2018 - Week 3 Preview

By the end of Week 2 there are some events becoming more set in stone; this occurs because teams maintain a week 1 performance level or they have a drop off because they may be on the road or suffering from home debut nerves. Other people maintain performance and still we are surprised - those that we are surprised by are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes; Mahomes has started his career with three road games and three road wins.

On Sunday in Pittsburgh, he showed no nerves as he threw for 6 touchdowns and no turnovers as the Chiefs gained their second win of the season; they are tied with the Broncos who defeated the Raiders at home. The Chiefs are in better shape and more impressive as they opened on the road while Denver have had the comfort of Mile High.

Cleveland still cannot catch a break; they lose by three points in New Orleans with new field goal kicker missing two extra points and two field goals. A team that cannot win, will always find a new way to lose.

Jacksonville are not going away and neither is Blake Bortles - he shouldered responsibility with Leonard Fournette hamstrung - throwing for four touchdowns as the Patriots questionable defence cost them again. Early days in the season but the Pats are behind the Dolphins for East supremacy but no shame in losing to a genuine contender in the AFC but may count come playoffs and home field advantage.

Week 3 Preview
Thursday Night
New York Jets (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1-1)
A team that conspires its own downfall play a team that came back down to earth. Tyrod Taylor again played badly but he will probably get the start due to quick turnaround, while Sam Darnold threw for over 300 yards but two interceptions proved costly as the early scores came from costly turnovers. Miami did not have do much to gain the victory. The Jets may have a few more weapons but can the Browns get it together, we hope.
Prediction: Browns by 2

Sunday
New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
The NFC South is going to be the toughest division this year, three good teams anyway but one team exceeding expectation. The Saints got over the line versus Cleveland though they the reliance on Kamara is proving them to be one-dimensional. The Falcons bounced back at home to Carolina, and they are a different beast in the Mercedes-Benz stadium seemingly. The Falcons have a greater balance on both sides while the Saints look for an answer before Ingram returns.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
The Chiefs finally get home to Arrowhead and the atmosphere will be electric, the 49ers will be buoyant after their first victory of the season however they are going up against a rampant KC offense led by the lights out Patrick Mahomes who had six touchdowns and no turnovers on the day in Pittsburgh. The defence is giving up numbers though so it will again be a 60 point game probably, but does JimmyG have the firepower to contend with Tyreek Hill and company.
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
The Dolphins have quietly gone under the radar gaining two wins to lead the division, and they face the woeful Raiders at home who have to travel from coast to coast. Although they showed improvement and lost only by one point, you feel the chance was gone and this will be a tough trip for them. Miami though have an efficiency and force turnovers that result in points; facing a mistake prone Oakland side that could be a match made in heaven.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Buffalo Bills (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1)
The Vikings have a lot going for them, but for a questionable roughing the passer call they may have lost to Green Bay; while the Bills were again abysmal versus the Chargers. Josh Allen is starting for Buffalo and he showed promise but he has no talent outside and if LeSean McCoy cannot get running room there is little chance for productivity. The Vikings defence will be too strong for the Bills
Prediction: Vikings by 9

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Andrew Luck is an inspiring figure gaining his first win since his return usurping Alex Smith and the Washington franchise who stutter despite the good efforts of Chris Thompson. The Eagles meanwhile, got thrashed by the Bucs and Fitzpatrick who showed up their questionable secondary. The Colts have one great receiver and the Eagles did well against one great WR such as Julio Jones, the problem was against a squadron of WR. The Eagles may have Carson Wentz back which would be interesting to see, and they may have enough.
Prediction: Eagles by 6

Green Bay Packers (1-1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
The Packers have Aaron Rodgers who is nursing himself through a knee injury, this may be the toughest game to pick as the Packers have a questionable secondary which Washington may exploit. Alex Smith has the skills to manage this game, while the Packers still need to find their offensive identity despite having a great quarterback.
Prediction: Washington by 3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)
This should be a great contest, the Bengals came out firing against the Ravens and shot out to a huge lead that they never gave up. The Panthers will be licking their wounds after losing in Atlanta, but McCaffrey got a huge amount of yardage and can Carolina get to Dalton enough to force mistakes.
Prediction: Panthers by 4

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
The Jaguars are for real, despite the injury to Leonard Fournette, Blake Bortles had the keys to the cars and drove through New England with reckless abandon, Keenan Cole had a huge day with great runs supplemented by Ryan Grant. Bortles was able to find receivers open anywhere on the field. The Titans got a good game out of Blaine Gabbert but can imagine Sacksonville having a field day here.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Another good even contest, the Ravens will be in need of a reaction following the woeful submission to the Bengals on Thursday night. The Broncos rode their luck at home to Oakland but they have a perfect record. Again though the big travel across country may count against them, the Ravens though face a formidable defensive line while Keenum has shown great poise under duress. A field goal to split them here.
Prediction: Ravens by 3

New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)
One team will get a win, unless we have our third consecutive tie, and for all the promise and talent on display in the Big Apple there is a real worry that the Giants may be looking at a terrible September; is Eli Manning just past it now? The Texans have a home game opener and they showed promise but need to find better protection for Deshaun Watson who nevertheless threw to both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller for over 100 yards each. The Texans may have enough, while the Giants are merely treading water.
Prediction: Texans by 6

Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Los Angles Rams (2-0)
The Battle for LA - but the Rams are appearing to be the most complete team in the NFL, they brushed aside the Arizona Cardianls 34-0, Todd Gurley ripped them up and the defence swallowed up Sam Bradford. Goff is executing McVay's game plan with little fuss and you cannot see anything but a Rams victory here. The prediction may seem harsh but this due partly to Rivers prone to errors be it fumbles or interceptions.
Prediction: Rams by 10

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
This Bears defence is frightening, they looked good admittedly against a poor O-line of Seattle which necessitated to Russell Wilson having kittens; yet it is Trubizky doing enough when required either with passes or on his feet. There is a nice balance in Chicago which may come to greater fruition, and this defence against a weak Cardinals side may eat up more sacks again on the road.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
A few seasons ago this would have been a prime time fixture, now it is two franchises in a state of flux and flabbergast. A one-dimensional Dallas side reliant upon a running back due to the lack of receivers against a Seahawks side who still have defenders to make plays. Can Seattle get to Dak enough, does Dallas have enough pressure to force Russell to get out of his comfort zone with Doug Baldwin still sidelined. Feel the Seahawks will sneak this one in an ugly contest.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

New England Patriots (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
The Patriots have a questionable defence, they leave receivers wide open and cannot get pressure up front on third downs to force mistakes from the relevant quarterback; they face a good quarterback with receivers but their old defensive co-ordinator Matt Patricia who has not had a good start to his head coaching career. The Patriots should have enough to overcome this defence and the importance of having match ups and fooling the Lions is key, would like to see more of James White.  The Patriots got outplayed and even Brady cannot overcome that defence and scoreline.
Prediction: Patriots by 7

Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
It is strange how schedulers are sometimes laughed at, and yet happen stance or good fortune results in hot properties getting their due attention. The Buccaneers have turned some heads with a road win in the opener in the Superdome followed by a defeat at home of the Superbowl champions, Philadelphia Eagles. Thanks in no small part to the resurgent Ryan Fitzpatrick, with 8 touchdowns in two games, but a defence that is swallowing up offensive lines. This is the last game of Jameis Winston's suspension, meaning the Bucs will have a huge decision to make. Fitzpatrick has made great start to seasons before and tailed off, but he gives a level of dependency you will not ordinarily get from Winston with fewer turnovers. Plus the explosive nature of three wide receivers gives them a match up nightmare for any defence, and facing a Steelers secondary that gives up big plays after big plays - can you see anything but the continuing Fitzmagic spell?
Prediction: Bucs by 8

Fantasy Advice
- Austin Ekeler (LAC, RB) - has to share workload with Melvin Gordon for carries but outrushed Gordon who was used more in screens, had 98 total yards on Sunday in Buffalo. Will aim to get a TD this week albeit against the stellar Rams defence.
- Philip Lindsay (DEN, RB) does all the hard work - 107 yards off 14 carries but Royce Freeman got the TD. On the road at Baltimore that may alter this week.
- Philip Richardson (WAS, WR) - 63 yards off of four targets, they are at home to Green Bay and their questionable secondary. Ample opportunity there for big numbers.

New England Patriots 2017 Schedule Breakdown

Yesterday, the 2017 schedule was released and much like that day in June when we salivate over the EPL fixture release in England, here the NFL release all the schedule including Monday Night match ups.

Teams can decipher the short weeks, the quick turnarounds, Thanksgiving and Christmas battles. For New England you look at the trips away in the division, as well as match ups that include journeys to Mexico to face the Oakland Raiders as well as trips away to Pittsburgh and Denver.

The breakdown

Week 1 - 7th Sept, v Kansas City

The league's official kick off as the reigning Super Bowl champions host a pretender in the Kansas City Chiefs on Thursday 7th September. Likely you see the champs win out with a fit again Gronkowski and new toys for Brady to play with, whilst Stefan Gilmore starts shutting down Jeremy Maclin (not hard).

Prediction : Win, 1-0

Which team will Butler being playing for in Week 2?

Week 2 - 17th Sept, @ New Orleans

The Malcolm Butler derby, but will he be wearing the black of the Saints or the white of the Patriots. Either way Butler would love to make a statement but we also have Brandin Cooks returning to the Superdome and with our offensive superiority you cannot see a Saints side admittedly still in transition winning, although they are wasting the twilight years of Drew Brees.

Prediction: Win, 2-0

Week 3 - 24th Sept, v Houston

This was a Week 3 victory last year with Jacoby Brissett getting his win. Houston will be a different side with J. J. Watt returning and the Texans did give the Patriots a scare in the playoffs and this could well be a banana skin, but this is dependent upon what continuity and productivity the Texans have at quarterback be it Tom Savage or someone else. The Patriots lay an egg once a season, this may be it.

Prediction: Loss, 2-1

Week 4 - 1st Oct, v Carolina

The Panthers whilst they have the game changer in Cam Newton, they are about their front 7 on defence against our O-line. This turf war is where Blount may come to the fore, whilst the Panthers may not have enough weapons on outside to worry the secondary.

Prediction: Win, 3-1

Week 5 - 5th Oct, @ Tampa Bay

A short week against a bristling Bucs side who look to kick on and this should be an entertaining game for the neutral, however, the experience and dominance of Patriots will be too much although the speed of their wide receivers may provide match up problems for Gilmore and Butler (if he remains).

Prediction: Win, 4-1

Week 6 - 15th Oct, @ New York Jets

The first divisional game is against the weakest side of the division, an ageing side with no identity on offense and is ear marked to be one of the favourites for wooden spoon and Number 1 seed in 2018 draft.

Prediction: Win, 5-1

SuperBowl 51 rematch in October

Week 7 - 22nd Oct, v Atlanta

The Superbowl rematch where the Falcons will want redemption for blowing a 28-3 lead before Brady turned on his after burners and led the Patriots to his and their 5th Super Bowl. Again a high scoring affair but the Patriots won without Gronk, and they will find a way to win again but could be one of the regular season games of the year.

Prediction: Win, 6-1

Week 8 - 29th Oct, v LA Chargers

This could be a tricky game, the Chargers will be playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder searching for their identity in their new home. But for all their injuries sustained last year they might have made the play offs in a competitive division, but if they can maintain a healthy roster they still have Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon will only get better and the defence is one of the more under-rated units in the NFL.

Prediction: Win, 7-1

Week 9 - Bye Week

Week 10 - 12th Nov, @ Denver

A week off is followed by a week up at altitude in Mile High. The Broncos are far removed from the defensive class that won the Super Bowl led by Von Miller. A lot of that team remain but on offense they are a question mark with one of Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch under centre. A week off leads to the Patriots triumphing again.

Prediction: Win, 8-1

Can Derek Carr bounce back from broken leg?

Week 11 - 19th Nov, @ Oakland (in Mexico)

Arriba! A road trip to Mexico versus perhaps one of the main challengers to the Patriots AFC dominance. Derek Carr back from a broken leg, a returning Marshawn Lynch as well as Amari Cooper and that defence that swallowed up offensive lines. Another game at altitude but having played there the week before, you can imagine the Patriots being more prepared than the 'home' team. A great game nonetheless but the Patriots might have too much.

Prediction: Win, 9-1

Week 12 - 26th Nov, v Miami

Home for Thanksgiving, the Patriots do not lose to the Dolphins at home. It will be very cold and Tannehill will freeze again in the spotlight against Brady.

Prediction:  Win, 10-1

Week 13 - 3rd Dec, @ Buffalo

The Bills are like the Jets a bit of a mess, this is one of the more hostile atmospheres the Patriots will face throughout the season but we have Gilmore returning and he will pick off Tyrod Taylor once in this game. By this point you imagine the offensive juggernaut rolling into Buffalo for another W.

Prediction: Win, 11-1

Week 14 - 11th Dec, @ Miami

Monday Night Football in South Beach. A glamour game for sure but the Patriots have a bad history in Florida recently as if the Patriots are aware of this record and the Dolphins elevate their game for this with good reason. Could be one of those games where that extra 5% from the Fins may undo the Pats.

Prediction: Loss, 11-2

Big Ben provides opposition to No. 1 seed

Week 15 - 17th Dec, @ Pittsburgh

Twas the week before Christmas and all through the Burgh, not a creature was stirring as Le'Veon Bell ran for 150 yards on a Patriots side that could not contain the offensive weapons that Pittsburgh have. Sometimes you have road games you look at the schedule and mark out as difficult venues to go to. The Steelers away is one of those and a loss is nothing to be sad about although two in a row is not something Bill Belichick does.

Prediction: Loss, 11-3

Week 16  - 24th Dec, v Buffalo

Merry Christmas New England. You get one of the weaker offences at home on Christmas Eve and the chance to perhaps wrap up home field advantage by then throughout the play offs. Happy Holidays Mr. Kraft

Prediction: Win, 12-3

Week 17 - 31st Dec, v New York Jets

The year and the season end at home against another weak division rival who may well be tanking for the overall pick. Perhaps this will be Jimmy Garrapollo's final snaps in a Patriots jersey or Tom Brady further cements his regular season wins records. Another division title. Another 12+ win season. The dynasty continues to reign and another deep play off run begins.

Prediction: Win, 13-3

Will it be Lombard Trophy #6 for Brady?

Other notes:
Predict the other AFC divisions belong to Pittsburgh Steelers, Oakland Raiders and Tennessee Titans
Wild cards: Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans

NFL Regular Seaon Review 2015

This might be a different review. As I will look back on the division predictions I made previously on my blog for both the AFC and NFC, and give my thoughts on each division, leading into an overview of the Wildcard playoffs

AFC East
Prediction: New England – Miami – Buffalo – NY Jets
Actual: NE – NYJ – BUF – MIA

The winner of the division was never in doubt post Deflategate, but the dominance of the Patriots as the best team in the AFC was put in jeopardy by their constant injury struggles. The loss of Dion Lewis was a big negative as with LaGarrette Blount also sidelined, New England have no pure running back although Steven Jackson can hopefully alleviate some concerns. The return of Julian Edelman will give added security on third down where the Patriots have been woeful of late.
As for the rest of the division, you felt this was the year a wildcard team could materialise, yet the Jets did what they do best and came up short at the end, albeit versus their former coach Rex Ryan who suffered with injuries and consistency in Buffalo. As for Miami, they fork out bundles of cash to free agents and get nothing back; Tannehill put into doubt his viability for a big contract and Suh did not beef up a defence that demanded improvement.

AFC North
Prediction: Baltimore – Cincinnati – Pittsburgh – Cleveland
Actual: CIN – PIT – BAL – CLE

This is my egg on face call as I picked the Ravens to go all the way, but the loss of Terrell Suggs in the first week depleted their defence which had a novice secondary, then Joe Flacco,  Justin Forsett and Steve Smith all ended up on IR, prompting a salvage mission of a season. At least they did not succumb to the wooden spoon behind the mess that is still the Browns. Either Johnny Manziel wants out or he is just bad, he might well be shipped or traded now.
Andy Dalton remains the new king of regular season by being pretty much regular and steady until a featured thumb led to AJ McCarron taking over. The Bengals defence was much touted but that fell away as the season went on. Great job by the Steelers to make the playoffs with a high octane offence with Antonio Brown to the fore. They are a team to avoid but the two rivals go head to head in Cincy in the playoffs.

AFC West
Prediction: Denver – Kansas City – San Diego – Oakland
Actual: DEN – KC – OAK – SD

Despite Peyton Manning having the worst statistical year of his life, more interceptions than touchdowns, the Broncos led by a stellar defence to take blame away from Manning before his injury and then the impressive Brock Osweilier meant the Broncos kept the Chiefs at bay and thanks to an OT victory over New England at home got the No.1 seed although the possibility of either the Chiefs or even the Steelers could give Denver fits. And does Manning start?
As for the Chiefs they won 11 straight to face Houston in the playoffs, rich reward to get the weakest AFC division winner. Andy Reid and Alex Smith have marshalled the team after the awful 1-4 start and the loss of Jamaal Charles to give KC an edge and toughness. The return of Justin Houston for the Houston match up is key perhaps.
San Diego were woeful, no potency on offence and with one eye on a move to Los Angeles, the team played home games to virtually away crowds. And it was pleasing to see the Oakland Raiders improve significantly to 7-9 thanks to a leap by Derek Carr and the rookie Amari Cooper. Although they lost steam, there is something brewing in Oakland. And thank Charles Woodson for an incredible career.

AFC South
Prediction : Houston – Indianapolis – Jacksonville – Tennessee
Actual: HOU – IND – JAX – TEN

The only division I predicted correctly as my punt on the Texans overpowering Andrew Lick came true. Well not really. In the worst division in the NFL, the Texans survived longest as the Colts could not do much without Luck and the Texans got enough from Brian Hoyer and then Brandon Weeden to advance, all without Arian Foster for most of the season, thank God they had DeAndre Hopkins have a great season.
Jacksonville showed significant improvement from Blake Bortles and their receiving core and a fully fit TJ Yeldon at running back next year will be interesting.
Tennessee had moments with Marcus Mariota but the lack of talent across the roster meant they have the number 1 pick in the draft and are in a position to get a host of picks as Mariota did look the part, but will he be reunited with Chip Kelly, who departed the Eagles.

NFC East
Prediction: NY Giants – Dallas – Philadelphia – Washington
Actual: WAS – PHI – NYG – DAL

The toughest division to call provided the biggest surprise as the Washington franchise won the NFC East and ask Do you like that? Yes, Kirk Cousins we do. A 6-2 record at home and a formidable fortitude lead to the 10 win season, they could well spring one more surprise versus the Green Bay Packers this weekend. Washington are red hot at home and Green Bay have had their issues on the road.
The division was a cluster stuff of sub par football. The New York Giants should have been 9-7 instead of 6-10 and sending Tom Coughlin to his next job of haunting Bill Belichick and Tom Brady permanently. The Giants had no run game to take some pressure off of Odell Beckham Jr.
The Eagles were a mess in terms of personnel and the contract to DeMarco Murray was a mistake in light that Ryan Mathews was the better back, Chip Kelly’s exit in Week 17 was. It surprising though he does deserve another crack somewhere be it San Francisco or Tennessee, the most likely destinations.
Dallas suffered as their best players Tony Romo and Dez Bryant missed significant periods of the season, if fully fit they can hit certain heights next year and the Number 5 pick in the draft is a blessing without forking out in free agency again.

NFC North
Prediction: Green Bay – Minnesota – Chicago – Detroit
Actual: MIN – GB – DET – CHI

I correctly called the Vikings a playoff team yet they get the Seattle Seahawks visiting having won the division by winning in Lambeau in Week 17. Minnesota have shown just enough edge in their play and the returning Adrian Peterson has given them a winning edge. Can they go all the way is hard to say. Green Bay started off great but have looked anything but convincing with solid performances meeting woeful ones especially the road shocker at Arizona.
Detroit ended 7-9 and but for some rub of the green and defending Hail Marys better they could have nipped the Packers to the playoff berth yet they have big question in the offseason concerning free agent Calvin Johnson. And Chicago go from bad to worse, a boat of injuries denied them momentum but they need some leadership and free agent finds you feel to inject life into them.

NFC West
Prediction: Seattle – Arizona – St. Louis – San Francisco
Actual: ARI – SEA – STL – SF

Credit to the Arizona Cardinals who were the better team in the division although when the Seahawks woke up - or removed Jimmy Graham from their offence – they reminded why they are a force to be
reckoned with. Seattle much like Pittsburgh are the team you want to avoid.
St. Louis flattered to deceive despite a great defence, Nick Foles did not do enough to get plays out of their star players although Todd Gurley is the perennial silver lining for the Rams.  San Francisco sank you felt but still had five wins with Blaine Gabbert after Colin Kaepernick was disposed of, they sacked Jim Tomsula and are now flirting with the idea of Chip Kelly, who might give them a shot of adrenaline but in this division you need muscle and composure exemplified by the Cardinals and Seahawks.

NFC South
Prediction: Carolina – Atlanta – Tampa Bay – New Orleans
Actual: CAR – ATL – NO – TB

Carolina have the best record in football, 15-1, and they deserve immense credit due to the great balance of a lock down defence led by Josh Norman and Luke Kuechly, but certain MVP Cam Newton has done wonders considering his receiving core is not on par with other teams, Ted Ginn Jr?!? but Greg Olsen is probably the second best tight end now behind Gronkowski.
Atlanta started 5-0 and did not make the playoffs. Who is to blame? They remained competitive but the play of Matt Ryan with countless turnovers in the red zone did a disservice to a teams record but overall did not deserve a playoff berth.
The party is over in New Orleans as Sean Payton is likely departing, poor Rob Ryan defence led to terrible losses from which no team can recover. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got some great momentum for themselves in Jameis Winston’s rookie year – a lot of the team return next year and they could well grow into a viable play off threat much like the Vikings did this year.

Play off Predictions
Washington over Green Bay
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Seattle over Minnesota

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NFL AFC Conference 2015/16 Season preview

For any writer to do a full preview on all 32 teams and 8 divisions is a stretch, but I will give it my best shot. They say start with what you know,so I am starting with the AFC, the conference which is home to the reigning Super Bowl champions, the New England Patriots.

Much has been made during this offseason about one man and the effect it will have on his team, it is easy to forget there are 31 other teams vying to win this season. And that is from a New England Patriot fan. I am biased, yet I accept this is a weird offseason leading into the preseason. If I was the Patriots I would accept the suspension and get the first four games, which on paper look no worse than a 2-2 record anyway (v Pittsburgh, @ Buffalo, v Jacksonville and @ Cowboys) and then reset the season come October with Brady under centre.

AFC East
My preview begins in the AFC East which thank to some key personnel moves on and off the field for certain teams, the division which has been New England's for nearly a decade is now under threat.  The Miami Dolphins realised that they need not only a capable QB for themselves, but a pass rush to attack the various QBs they face such as Brady. Therefore the signing of Ndamoukah Suh is a masterstroke, a player whose defensive capabilities are limitless but perhaps a change of climate will do him the world of good.

Rex Ryan, left New York, but did not get far heading north to Buffalo, staying in house and bringing a winning mentality to the floundering Bills who have enough offensive weapons to give any defence headaches all year. Expect Shady McCoy to lead the charge and with Sonny Williams the lead wide out in his second year, the pace will be tough to be second to the Patriots.

The New York Jets have a new head coach in former DC of Arizona, but the loss of
Sheldon Richardson for the season is huge for a team whose defence kept them in more games than you would think. Gene Smith is still the QB and that raises enough doubts that they will again be wooden spoon champions in the East.

The reason the battle for second will be tough is that the Patriots will again employ the siege mentality as us against them takes hold. With or without Brady, you anticipate that the presence of Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman will be sufficient for either Brady or Garrapollo to engineer victories. Much has been made of the losses on defence, no Revis, no Browner but time and again the Patriots have a turnover of defensive personnel and they either draft well or pick up free agents. The general acclaim afforded them for picking up Malcolm Brown in the draft indicates the nerves about the Patriots defence should be put on the back-burner.

Prediction: 1. New England 2. Miami 3. Buffalo 4. New York Jets

AFC North
So often this division has been one of feisty competition and resilience, now it looks like a division of teams failing to fulfil their potential. The theory of consistency holds true, but you can be a good regular season team yet you have to back it up in the playoffs. Something that has alluded the Cincinnati Bengals led by Andy Dalton and the still employed Marvin Lewis. For them it is easy, win the division and win a playoff game. Just one. Only one to have credibility.

Big Ben put up some huge numbers last season but as he ages, the stellar QB needs to adapt and utilise Le'Veon Bell this season to win the division, while the loss of Dick Lebeau will be a loss for any team.

The Cleveland Browns have another QB competition but it is between Johnny Football and Josh McGown, not exactly a great competition to begin with. Despite that who will the winner throw to
with Josh Gordon suspended for the season.

That leaves us with the Baltimore Ravens, a team with a perfect balance on both sides who have
quietly gone about their business and have the least questions to answer on the field. Can Flacco be less of a fluke and prove his elite status.

Prediction: 1.  Baltimore 2. Cincinnati 3. Pittsburgh 4. Cleveland

AFC West
Ordinarily this would be an easy decision and say the Denver Broncos with Peyton Manning at the helm would walk this division, get 12 wins minimum and compete with the Patriots for home field advantage. Yet the ageing Manning means the division is up for grabs although 10 wins might be enough for whomever. The biggest problem for Denver is protecting Manning, and Ryan Clady's injury at left tackle (Manning's blind side) will ask serious questions on his power of recuperation. A blessing for the Broncos was the advancement of CJ Anderson who gives Manning a great number to call at the line.

Elsewhere in the division, Kansas City have the most efficient QB but he had no downfield threat to keep them in high scoring games. Still a good defence marshalled by Andy Reid will make the the biggest threat to Denver.

San Diego have a good QB but a lot of questions on their defence and the four game suspension of Antonio Gates for PEDs is a big loss.

Oakland Raiders are not going to the be the laughing stock of the league, but again they have a young QB without much offensive weapons to help him mature and gain wins. Latavius Murray showed flashes of explosive game changing potential last year but is not considered their first choice RB, a mistake if they do not want to be dead last again.

Prediction: 1. Denver 2. Kansas City 3. San Diego 4. Oakland

AFC South
Quite possibly this could be the closest division in the AFC this season thanks to the elevation of one teams defence, and more consistent QB play hopefully coupled with the leader of the packs intention to not protect their star asset. This is the division that will see a real change of scenery.

Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts are many neutral observers tips to again reach the AFC championship game, yet to this observer the team have not done enough to beef up the offensive line to protect Luck. This makes it al the more remarkable when they play twice against the Houston Texans who can boast a defensive line that includes boy JJ Watt, the now fully fit Jadeaveon Clowney and newly acquired Vince Wilfork at defensive tackle - a scary combination. If the Texans can get a full season out of their QB either the young and maturing Ryan Mallett or dependable Brian Hoyer, some yardage out of Arian Foster (note Foster suffer a groin injury on 3-8-15) then the Texans are not only a division winner but a formidable opponent.

The Texans also have a favourable schedule. They open at home to Kansas City followed by a three game series versu three of the awful NFC South (Carolina, Tampa, Atlanta) so a possible 4-0 start perhaps, followed by a tough trip in Week 10 at Cincinnati for Monday Night Football with New England visiting Houston in Week 14. Not a terrible looking schedule, certainly not one to be scared of.

The other two teams have young QBs. Tennessee got Marcus Mariota and so changed their scheme, can the Hawaiian native lead the team to glory. It is down to expectation and Mariota should be given the keys for a season and not have a lot of pressure on his young shoulders.

Whereas, Blake Bortles is expected to progress and get more wins this year for the Jacksonville
Jaguars, Bortles showed flashes of quality coupled with bad rookie decisions, yet the acquisition of
Julius Thomas from Denver gives him a security blanket and red zone target.

Prediction: 1. Houston 2. Indianapolis 3. Jacksonville 4. Tennessee

Click here for my NFC preview.

Supposed Super Bowl

Following the divisional round of play off matches over the weekend where only one road team won but nevertheless every game was tight and entertaining. We are two games away from the Superbowl, the mecca of American Football, fittingly taking place in a desert.

For all four teams left - Seattle Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts - are just one game away from the game of immortals. I'd like to take this moment to size up the possible games we could have at Glendale, Arizona on Sunday 1st February.  What possible storylines could we envisage and forsee occuring?

Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots
The team that is on the cusp of greatness goes up against the current dynasty of the NFL.  The defending champion Seahawks go up against the last team to repeat as Super Bowl champions when the Patriots did it in 2004 for their third Lombardi trophy in three years.  Russell Wilson v Tom Brady is not so much the storyline as others but more that defence against an offence that can adapt and offer variations.  The last time these two played was two seasons ago when a Richard Sherman interception stopped a possible Brady game winning drive.  The handshake and exchange of pleasantries cemented Sherman's reputation as someone who can back it up off the pitch as well as on it, Brady would be wanting to put the record straight. And winning his fourth ring might just do it. And to think of West Coast muscle versus East coast brain power in the guise of Carroll v Belichick; the tan versus the hoodie.

Seattle Seahawks v Indianapolis Colts
Two of the three top quarterbacks taken in the 2013 draft, Russell Wilson v Andrew Luck.  The champion v the blueprint.  Luck was supposed to win a Super Bowl first but Wilson got to it first.  This would be Luck's legacy on the line, it would not be his last appearance and to spare the continual comparison to Peyton Manning he might want to win his first Super Bowl appearance.  Yet in terms of match up, with no running game to speak of, can you imagine Luck having to throw against this secondary and try to win the game.

Green Bay Packers v Indianapolis Colts
A gimpy Aaron Rodgers against a fast improving Colts offensive line with Jonathon Newsome off the edge and Cory Redding.  The only drawback of the Colts win in Denver was the tackling or failure to of CJ Anderson who gained yards when he should have been stopped, imagine a better runner like Eddie Lacy whose workload will be elevated based upon Rodgers fitness.  Luck would prefer to throw on this secondary and if it is a shootout would you not rather have a gunman with two legs.

Green Bay Packers v New England Patriots
The two best quarterbacks of the season going head to head for all the marbles.  Rodgers going for his second Super Bowl, Brady going for his fourth to join his idol Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw in immortality. Should Brady get that elusive fourth ring, remember he has lost the last two Super Bowl appearances, it should put to bed the arguments over the GOAT debate. Brady with a compotent offence may appear to be overly reliant on Rob Gronkowski but that is the beauty of having a beast, try and match up with him which secondaries may do and that leaves options open in the form of Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola. Never mind Shane Vereen and LaGarrette Blount in the backfield. And the defensive line of New England led by Vince Wilfork will match up well against Lacy and welcome the chance to reverse the scoreline 26-21 at Lambeau back in Week 13.

With it taking place in the desert not far from the Old West, what finer sight than to see Brady and Belichick head into the sunset with a fourth trophy on their back.

Can the Colts stay Luck-y?

Being a New England Patriots fan, I was quite apprehensive about the Week 11 game at Lucas Oil Stadium versus the Indianapolis Colts. It's all well and good beating the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning at Foxboro, again. Yet this was a true road game in a suspected AFC playoff team and Super Bowl contender. Being in England, I had to sleep and hope I woke up to good news.

I woke up to a scoreline of 42-20 victory for New England. Yet it wasn't another great showing by Tom Brady, he threw no interceptions but the hero was unheralded running back Jonas Gray who ran for 199 yards and four touchdowns.

However, upon reading social media my interest has been piqued by the future more of the Colts. Being a fan of Brady and Bill Belichick, you get accustomed to them finding ways to maintain a consistency of performance and finding ways to succeed.  Belichick employed a sixth lineman to help the running game and simply overpowered a weak Colts defence.

Before Sunday, the Colts were leading the NFL in offence and yet were last in defensive rankings.  When you have put all your chips in on a franchise quarterback and ask him to take you to the promised land of Super Bowl glory, the minimum requirement is to give him the opportunity to win the game. That means keeping him on the field, give him short field to work with and disrupt the offensive flow of the opponents.

Belichick in employing Gray as his offensive weapon, fundamentally kept Luck off the field for long periods of time. The constant scoring meant Luck had to throw more; Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson ran the ball only 7 times, not helped by Bradshaw breaking his ankle.  Luck has offensive weapons but there are teams in the AFC with just better defenders than what the Colts have.  The Patriots have Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Logan Ryan. Would any member of the Colts secondary dislodge those gentleman?

My concern for the Colts is that this was a season that was an opportunity to get a number 1 or 2 seed. The defeat yesterday means they will have to go through Mile High and then Foxboro to reach Arizona, they are conveniently playing in a poor division and they are the best team in that division for this season.

The Houston Texans are having a great defensive year in spite of offensive failings. In JJ Watt you have a player who would be considered for MVP awards if the Texans were above .500; and they are now at .500 with a seemingly more capable quarterback in Ryan Mallett.  Houston have a wealth of talented defenders apart from Watt; they drafted Jadaveon Clowney correctly and still have Brian Cushing and Danieal Manning who put up great numbers. The team is carried though by Watt, and for years to come the battle between him and Luck will be exhilarating.

The point of the last paragraph is that if the Colts do not get help on that offensive line to protect Luck then Watt, Clowney et al will eat him up and usurp them as the number one team in the AFC South.

Case in point they need to plan and draft better. It was fortuitous that Coby Fleener was drafted 34th overall and become the perennial safety blanket (aren't all tight ends safety blankets) for Luck has evidenced by his 7 receptions for 144 yards on Sunday night.  It was a stroke of luck for the Colts but look at who was selected 35th and 36th in the same draft. After Fleener was Courtney Upshaw (Alabama) by the Baltimore Ravens, a wonderful player and after him was Derek Wolfe a component defensive tackle for the Broncos. Even the unfortunate Jonathan Martin (Stanford) was selected 42nd by the Miami Dolphins as an offensive lineman.

Fleener will be around for years but he can expect more coverage next week after news that Dwayne Allen has a high ankle strain so a few weeks out.  The only worry is will Luck get the ball to him, enough to get the win. The Colts are 6-4 and the Texans 5-5, the encounter at Lucas Oil Stadium on December 14th will be all important to who makes the playoffs.

Follow me @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 12 preview

Week 11 had two big match-ups between undefeated Kansas City at Denver Broncos, with Denver winning to go atop the AFC West standings and had the Chiefs their first defeat of the season.  Denver are now in the driving seat but have two big games in consecutive weeks on the road at New England and then back at Kansas City.

The other game saw two playoff contenders the New England Patriots travel to the Carolina Panthers, the Panthers continued their winning streak to six as they benefited from a flag being picked up in the end zone which denied the Patriots a chance from the one yard line to win the game.  Although, Tom Brady would be under centre or in the shotgun, the Panthers did enough to win the game due to their formidable defence and Steve Smith getting the upper hand of the returning Aqib Talib in terms of pushing and shoving.

In other games, the Detroit Lions lost out on the road to Pittsburgh despite Calvin Johnson having two touchdowns in the first half yet did not have a reception in the second half. They lost by 10 in a game they should have bossed, but perhaps two road games were too much for this optimistic side.

The bottom is falling out of the San Francisco 49ers, they suffered their second loss in two games on the road to New Orleans Saints. Again the Saints benefited from a questionable call, but Ahmad Brooks practically clotheslined Drew Brees in the pocket.  Garrett Hartley kicked the winning field goal. The Niners lost in New Orleans for the second time in 10 months following their Super Bowl defeat in February.  The 49ers are now 6-4, 3.5 games behind the Seahawks with the Arizona Cardinals with the same record.  Could San Fran miss out on the playoffs?

Bye weeks this week for Cincinnati, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Seattle

Week 12 preview
Saints (8-2) at Falcons (2-8)
What a terrible year for the Falcons, so much expectation lost to lack of form and injuries all over the field. The Saints dodged a potential bullet versus the 49ers, and they should have their wicked way with the Falcons poor defence. Something forgotten is how bad Matt Ryan has thrown this year, admittedly he has few weapons, but the ball has not got to them.
Prediction: Saints by 8

Steelers (4-6) at Browns (4-6)
I fancied the Browns to upset the Bengals, and the Steelers upset the Lions in surprising fashion led by Big Ben throwing 400+ yards.  Anticipate Pittsburgh to throw but Joe Haden caught more passes than AJ Green (1 catch, 7 yards) last week, and he will be on Antonio Brown who had a huge day on Sunday.  A tight contest but defence should will out.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Buccaneers (2-8) at Lions (6-4)
The Lions need to get back into the groove and probably will at home against the winning Bucs who have a gem in Bobby Rainey at running back. The Bucs can throw though and Revis Island v Megatron should be an amazing sight.
Prediction: Lions by 4

Vikings (2-8) at Packers (5-5)
This could be an ugly game, reserve quarterbacks duel it out on the frozen tundra of Lambeau.  Eddie Lacy faced a formidable d-line last week, he may have more joy this week.  Scott Tolzien looked decent throwing for 300+ yards but 3 interceptions take the gloss of a game they could have won.
Prediction: Packers by 3

Chargers (4-6) at Chiefs (9-1)
The Chiefs begin a huge two game home stand with two divisional rivals. The Chargers just cannot gain consistency in their play week to week - the loss of Alexander and Floyd have hurt and put too much pressure on Ryan Mathew and Danny Woodhead, whilst Philip Rivers continues to frustrate.
Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Bears (6-4) at Rams (4-6)
Is it a blessing or curse to have a bye week after the best performance of your season as happened to the Rams who blasted the Colts in such high fashion. They return to home field against the travelling Bears who have injuries to still contend with and the five hour game in the mud patch last weekend v Baltimore.  The Rams might be fresher and the early start will work against Chicago, although Josh McCown has done pretty well replacing Jay Cutler
Prediction: Rams by 4

Panthers (7-3) at Dolphins (5-5)
For all the controversy, there was still the continued growth of Cam Newton at quarterback and of Carolina as a team. They forced a fumble and intercepted Brady, whilst Cam was clean throwing for three touchdowns, a surprise considering the running weapons at their disposal including Cam.  The Dolphins kept their season alive and have a shot at the six seed. Only one team out of five or six can get the sixth seed due to the presence of Kansas or Denver at fifth seed.  None of those play off chasing sides have a winning record, they all suck.  The Dolphins will not be able to defend Tannehill enough.
Prediction: Panthers by 12

Jets (5-5) at Ravens (4-6)
The Ravens can count themselves unfortunate losing in Chicago due to the elements considering they got a season high day out of Ray Rice finally, but Joe Flacco still threw a pick six.  The Jets had a God awful day in Buffalo getting blown out with Geno Smith being benched in the fourth quarter following three interceptions. If Baltimore win they are in the playoff hunt again.
Prediction: Ravens by 3

Jaguars (1-9) at Texans (2-8)
Yikes! How can you pick this one seriously and with actual confidence in your selection.  Matt Schaub was brought in after Case Keenum caved into the Raiders defence.  Bad move, give Keenum the ball and let him lead and learn.  Fancy the Texans, but will probably be proven wrong.
Prediction: Texans by 3

Titans (4-6) at Raiders (4-6)
I really really want Tennessee to win this game.
Prediction: Titans by 3

Colts (7-3) at Cardinals (6-4)
If the Arizona Cardinals want to be taken seriously as an NFC wildcard team, this is a game they have to win. Carson Palmer is doing decent along with Andre Ellington behind with L-Fitz and Malcolm Floyd going deep; along with their unheralded defence led by rookie of the year contender Tyrann Mathieu. The Colts will rely again on Andrew Luck, but can that O-line keep him upright.
Prediction: Cardinals by 6

Cowboys (5-5) at Giants (4-6)
The Giants are streaking and will fancy getting to Tony Romo even with Eli Manning still throwing pick sixes, but at least they are in victories recently. The Giants D has awoken from a September slumber and scoring points.  Dallas need to get back on the horse and prove they can win this division, that no-one wants to win.
Prediction: Giants by 4

Broncos (9-1) at Patriots (7-3)
The Broncos are scoring for fun, as is Peyton Manning who is on course for 54 touchdowns in the regular season. The record is 50 held by Tom Brady in the 16-0 season.  Manning has an awful record at Foxboro, one of the few venues he does not have a winning record in.  Belichick will welcome the challenge and do not forget the storyline of Josh McDaniels want to stick it to his former employer.  Brady has a near full quota of offensive weapons in his armoury, but this could be as big a shoot out as Denver had with Dallas earlier in the season, but perhaps the Broncos will come unstuck.
Prediction: Patriots by 4

49ers (6-4) at Redskins (3-7)
Interesting to hear Santana Moss' comments in regards to RG3 saying the quarterback should take some blame in regards to the team's performances this season.  RG3 is not a pocket passer, the two touchdowns he threw came on the run or out of the pocket. If that is the case why not run more, yet he will not put his knee in jeopardy. Expect pressure from the Niners to make RG3 move and not much joy for Alfred Morris.  The Niners need the win more, and will do so accordingly.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL Week 9 preview

Week 8 had one of the greatest endings in recent NFL history as the Lions overcame the Cowboys at home thanks to a record-setting day by Calvin Johnson, leading to a tantrum by Dez Bryant on the touchline but maybe the Cowboys should look at their defence that gave up 623 total yards in a game they should have won.

Personally, this writer went to Wembley Stadium in London to watch the San Francisco 49ers steamroll the Jacksonville Jaguars 42-10 in a very one-sided victory, but the 49ers look good again as they have returned to basics getting a lot of rushing yardage from Colin Kaepernick who had 2 rushing touchdowns, Frank Gore who got the first one of the day and some good carries for Kendall Hunter also.

Elsewhere, the Broncos overcame a 21-7 deficit at home to Washington to score 38 unanswered points as Robert Griffin III had one of the worst games of his career. Washington were victims of being greedy, after going head thanks to a Manning turnover (third consecutive game with one for Peyton) they continued to throw when they should have used Alfred Morris and Roy Helu on the ground to eat up time and frustrate the Broncos.  Instead RG3 thought he was a Manning aiming downfield to passers unable to catch in double coverage when screens and short passes would be key.

New England overcame a 17-3 half-time deficit to Miami at home and yet came up big in the third quarter as Tom Brady with a swollen hand did enough to get to 6-2 and again be in control of the AFC East following defeats for the Jets (at Bengals) and Bills (at Saints).

Week 9 preview Byes for Denver, Detroit, New York Giants, Arizona, 49ers, Jacksonville

Bengals (6-2) at Dolphins (3-4)
The Dolphins have now lost four games in a row, and they continue to protect their quarterback. Now they go up against a formidable defence who made life a misery for Geno Smith last week. Coupled with Andy Dalton looking solid himself, not turning the ball over, this one looks a foregone conclusion.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Steelers (2-5) at Patriots (6-2)
The Steelers are a frustrating sort of team, they should beat a team like Oakland and frustrate Terrelle Pryor but Pryor is making plays week in, week out. The Patriots are seemingly trying to build momentum and for them it is all about balance. Avoid Brady in fantasy until his receiving core gets to full health as they are getting good yards and scores from Stevan Ridley and Brandon Bolden currently.
Prediction: Patriots by 6

Chiefs (8-0) at Bills (3-5)
The Chiefs are probably the least convincing undefeated side in recent years owing to a soft schedule but you can only play who is on your sheet.  The Bills have shown flashes but miss CJ Spiller and the Chiefs defence should be able to get to Thad Lewis enough, but the Browns got within a touchdown of the Chiefs owing to Jason Campbell not turning the ball over. Yet Alex Smith protects the ball better than anyone at the moment in the NFL.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Vikings (1-6) at Cowboys (4-4)
The Cowboys will be grateful for this match-up as they can get back on the horse so soon after falling off. The Vikings are woeful and they had no answer to Aaron Rodgers and his depleted receivers, the Cowboys have plenty of catching talent and should be dominant as they usually are against teams with losing records.
Prediction: Cowboys by 10

Titans (3-4) at Rams (3-5)
The Rams came so close to rocking the apple cart by getting a signature win over the Seahawks at home, they outgained the Seahawks in yardage and kept them to only 129 total yards yet gave up an 80+ yard TD to Golden Tate.  They are at home but face a Titans team coming off a bye and if Jake Locker is healthy and plays to the level he showed before his hip injury then they should have too much.
Predition: Titans by 4

Saints (6-1) at Jets (4-4)
The Saints are as under the radar as Katrina was in the White House, yes Drew Brees is having another stellar season and Jimmy Graham caught two touchdowns despite not being 100% yet it is the Rob Ryan defence that is making noise and turning sufficient heads.  Geno Smith has had few answers to complicated defensive schemes as Belichick and Mike Zimmer (last week) has showed. Watch out for Kenny Vaccaro their first round draft pick who should be in the Defensive Rookie of the Year discussion
Prediction: Saints by 14

Chargers (4-3) at Washington (2-5)
The Chargers come off a bye and have a great balance currently with running backs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead making first downs and then Philip Rivers doing the rest.  Washington need to get back to basics, much like the 49ers did after their mini-crisis when 1-2. Start running the ball again RG3
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Falcons (2-5) at Panthers (4-3)
The Panthers were impressive at the Bucs last week and right now Cam Newton is playing excellent football; his stature in the pocket and explosiveness out of it makes the Panthers a viable wild card contender for the playoffs.  They have this divisional match-up and two games versus the Saints to come but I like the Panthers run and gun offence currently, run first and they still have Steve Smith and Greg Olsen as receivers.  Matt Ryan had four interceptions last week, another week to forget for pre-season Super Bowl favourites.
Prediction: Panthers by 7

Eagles (3-5) at Raiders (3-4)
Expect the Raiders to outrush the Eagles who have forgotten how to score an offensive touchdown. Whatever happened to this vaunted Eagles offensive machine that was going to change football?  The Raiders have been impressive, much more than I imagined they would be thanks to Terrelle Pryor. I think I might lose a bet with a friend of mine over the Raiders win total, which may be beaten in the next three games.
Prediction: Raiders by 7

Buccaneers (0-7) at Seahawks (7-1)
How do we still get these blowout sort of games. The Bucs have little run defence so expect Lynch to have a better day than he did on Monday, Percy Harvin's return cannot come soon enough for this Seahawks offence. Bucs will remain winless, but they are not as bad as Jacksonville, with Mike Glennon showing some competency at quarterback
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

Ravens (3-4) at Browns (3-5)
Jason Campbell did some good things last week and did not turn the ball over, whereas Joe Flacco does turn the ball over.  The Browns defence is underrated, maybe this is the surprise of the weekend.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Colts (5-2) at Texans (2-5)
This must have been thought as a high profile divisional match-up but the Colts are right now a good team playing above expectations at offence and defence. Whilst Case Keenum did well and kept it close against the Chiefs, he came up short and if the Colts defence play to a level like they did versus the Broncos this will be one-sided.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Bears (4-3) at Packers (5-2)
The Packers and especially Aaron Rodgers were from another planet (24 of 29 completed passes) as they had seven successive scoring drives on Sunday, on the eighth they kneeled to end the game. The combination of Jordy Nelson (123 yards, 2 TDs) and Eddie Lacy (89 yards of 192 total rushing yards) who is offensive rookie of the year material may be too much for a Bears defence who gave up 48 points to Washington. The defence have to contend with Josh McGown as Jay Cutler is still out with a groin injury.
Prediction: Packers by 10

Patriots v Buccaneers Pre-season Preview

It is Week 2 of the Pre-season and the New England Patriots host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Gillette Stadium, Foxboro tonight in a game now highlighted and made important by the sudden injury scare over Tom Brady's left knee on Wednesday.  With Brady returning to practice the next day wearing a knee brace, he expects to start tonight on home turf and maintain the Patriots perfect start to pre-season.

However, the Buccaneers will not be an easy game as they are team of unique talent on both sides of the ball. Here is my breakdown of what to watch out for:

1. Tom Brady's Reps:
With Brady suffering his knee injury, you can expect him to start and want to put on a show for the home crowd, yet the necessity to preserve him for Week 1 v Buffalo Bills will be key.  Expect the offence to follow the same trend as against the Eagles last week: two drives one governed by Stevan Ridley and one by Brady hooking up with his young receivers.

2. Bucs run defence
The Bucs had one of the best run defences last year, and so will be tested versus the strong running back core of Ridley, Shane Vereen, LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden.  Likewise, the front seven of the Patriots defence will face the muscle hamster of Doug Martin.

3. Patriots secondary
The infamous Patriots secondary will get a real test tonight versus two quality wide receivers in Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams.

4. Eyes on Ballard
Jake Ballard will be now getting some more on-field in-play work as the Patriots attempt to continue a two tight end scheme but with Ballard sharing the field and load with rookie free agent Zach Sudfeld. With Daniel Fells unlikely to suit up due to persistent injury and with Rob Gronkowski not back until the regular season; it is time for Ballard to repay the faith shown in his selection off waivers by the Patriots last season.

5. Receivers miss Revis
The young receiving core of Aaron Dobson, Josh Boyce and Kenbrell Thompkins will have a chance to further the positive impression they have made so far without the threat of fear of visiting (Darrelle) Revis Island who is still out and is expected to be back for Week 3 of pre-season (when the Bucs visit Miami).

6. Cards to the chest
Oddly, this is a pre-season game dress rehearsal.  These two teams play each other for real in Week 3 of the regular season again at New England on September 22nd, so perhaps expect the match to become a bit more of a training run through in the second half as Coaches Bill Belichick and Greg Schiano pull starters and do not show too much of any schemes before that regular season encounter.

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

Explaining Aaron Hernandez

Respect for the NBA players in America, grow year on year.  For these top athletes to drag their body through a 70 game season and then four rounds of the playoffs is quite remarkable given the degree of intensity, the velocity and pace of play and these are not normal shaped bodies - they are men who are in height all over 6' 6" and weigh 18 stone of muscle and brawn.

The other thing they have to contend with is the recognition of their abilities, they play in sleeveless shirts, shorts and Nikes.  They cannot be invisible when they leave the court.

NFL players are luckier, they play for four months of the year, five if they make the Super Bowl.  Admittedly, they do play in the coldest months of the calendar, yet they can hid behind helmets and shoulder pads, distinguishable by the large numbers on their chest and broad backs.  For many defensive and offensive linemen, they are anonymous, if you passed them in a shopping mall or they were out walking their dog, you would think he was a big lump.

The lucky few are photogenic and marketable, these are mostly the quarterbacks the young All-American WASPs who are protected by league rules to not be roughed up, while the dirty work at the line of scrimmage is rarely policed.  The NFL attempt to keep the young and gifted, fit and healthy for as long as possible - while running backs fall by the wayside with new blood leaving College every year in the draft.

For all the anti-NBA jive talk about responsibility and behaviour, it is few and far between the number of incidents involving NBA players away from the court.  Players on the hard court use their down time effectively to recuperate and rest, they have foundations and clinics to put on for children in summer classes, they always want to give back to the community they came from.

NFL players seemingly have a lot of downtime, two thirds of the year in fact to let their hair down and due to the big pay cheques they may encounter some unsavoury characters.  Yet the number of misdemeanors and crimes being committed by young affluent NFL players are high in comparison to other major American sport stars - drink driving, assault and battery, actual bodily harm, drug possession, fights with police.

There can be an argument that the NFL Draft is to blame, you have young underprivileged men leaving college who use their first pay cheque to live large and by giving young men too much money too soon can lead to problems.  English soccer has this problem for some time now, when 17-18 year olds are paid far too much at an early age, without having to earn it.  The NFL teams pay all this money to players based on the idea of potential and possibility, rather than earning it through performance and credibility.  In years past there has been faux pas' like Ryan Leaf and JaMarcus Russell; but yet you still can have Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III; two gifted young men who the ideal NFL franchise player - intelligent and mature.  Is it any surprise they both stayed for the full four years in college and did not jump to the draft when immediately eligible.

This may explain the Aaron Hernandez saga currently being played out on back pages and radio shows across America.  It now comes out that the reason Number 81 fell to the Patriots in the 4th round is due to character issues.  This has never stopped Bill Belichick before as he has signed Randy Moss and Chad Johnson (OchoCinco) before and they both played well but eventually tailed off.  Most NFL teams would say they can offer a large support network to any troubled soul, yet sometimes you never know what a player is capable of.  Did anyone imagine Michael Vick would actually host dog fighting in his luxurious mansions?

Aaron Hernandez is involved in a murder investigation involving a semi-pro 31 year old, Hernandez has done himself no favours by smashing up his security system and destroying his phone - evidence which is a federal offence, and may lead to him incriminating himself.  Hernandez could have done with going to the Patriots and telling them what happened. Instead he thought he was doing what was right, instead of doing what was correct.

Hernandez can probably expect such charges as perverting the course of justice, failure to report a crime and most definitely expect at least a four game suspension from the NFL for bringing the game into disrepute and poor off-field conduct.

As for the Patriots, with both exemplar tight ends either injured or in custody, it gives Tom Brady and the AFC East champions a rather lacklustre roster line-up of receivers to boast about whilst the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills attempt to gain ground on the Boston dynasty.

New England have let go of Wes Welker (Denver), Danny Woodhead (San Diego) and released Brandon Lloyd who is still a free agent, and could be re-signed.  They picked up Danny Amendola, tight end Ballard from the New York Giants and have acquired Aaron Dobson in the draft - they still have the running back combo of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen to get yards if the receiving core does not fire on all cylinders.

With all the Gronkowski injury news, the Patriots were probably hoping for a quiet remainder of the off-season, now they have to contend with the possibility of going into the season opener at Buffalo on September 8th without two of their most potent offensive weapons.

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL 2012 - Week 7 picks

After a brutal Pigskin Pick'em for me last week, where I scored a record low of 5 picks. I am looking to come back fighting this week - this time I am going to take note of trends such as teams returning off the bye, getting of the Arizona bus and selling the Steelers on the road.

On a bye this week: Atlanta, Denver, Miami, Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Diego

Week 7 picks
Seattle @ San Francisco - 49ers win
The 49ers will be amped for this game, and wanting to put the record straight after the flat-out embarrassing beat down laid on to them by the Giants where they lost 27-3, after having recording 600 yards the previous week.  They scored single digits last week, in a week the Raiders went to the undefeated Falcons and the Browns won their first game. Yes Seattle have been gritty at home, but in this hostile environment expect the 49ers to take care of business.

Tennessee @ Buffalo - Bills win
The Bills somehow are 3-3, and tied for first place with everyone else in the AFC East.  The Titans are a weird team, they have QB problems based around Jake Locker's injury although back-up Matt Hasselbeck had a good game versus Steelers and they got decent yardage from Chris Johnson.  If CJ wakes up expect a tight contest, although I believe the Bills have more dynamic weapons and are at home.

Cleveland @ Indianapolis - Browns win
Cleveland have their first victory, and the Colts looked really bad at home to the Jets when they gave up 161 rushing yards to Shaun Greene where he virtually walked through the D-line of the Colts at times.  Expect a better back in Trent Richardson to have some fun this week, as an improving D takes care of Luck. The emotion for the Colts in the wake of Pagano's illness was good for one game, now they are what they are, a team with a rookie QB with few other weapons at his disposal apart from Reggie Wayne.

Green Bay @ St. Louis - Packers win
Aaron Rodgers was the proverbial sleeping giant that woke up last week at Houston on Sunday night, 6 touchdowns tied a franchise record (with Matt Flynn- remember him) for 338 yards.  The Texans were due a loss and the Packers were due a statement win.  The Rams are the team with the bullseye on their chest.

Arizona @ Minnesota - Vikings win
The wheels have come off the Cardinals bandwagon with two losses in a row, last week the lose at home to Buffalo was hard to take in a game that neither team dominated.  Minnesota have been good to see as the surprise package, and with Adrian Petersen looking to eat up this failing Arizona D, this is my pick of the week, and lock.

Washington @ New York Giants - Giants win
RG3 was phenomenal considering the hit he took in Week 5, yet the Giants D-line are slowly waking up following some tentative games.  Eli Manning is quietly going about his business and getting returns from Nicks and Cruz, as well as Bradshaw.  This would be a big test for the Redskins' credentials, yet the Giants are always able to eke out these tight divisional encounters.

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay - Saints win
The Saints come off their bye week after gaining their first win of the season as Drew Brees set a new record of 48 consecutive games with a thrown TD. Expect him to continue that record this week, as a fresh Saints side go to division rivals Tampa, who are hot and cold and indicative of an inconsistent week.  The key is Josh Freeman who threw for 328 yards last week, but rarely does he follow it up with another big week.

Dallas @ Carolina - Panthers win
The Panthers are also coming off a bye week, whilst the Cowboys again snapped defeat from the jaws of victory versus the Ravens.  Dallas have also an injury worry over DeMarco Murray who gained 93yds on Sunday, this is a big loss for the Cowboys as Tony Romo still makes mistakes.  Carolina meanwhile will feel refreshed after the week off, especially Cam Newton who will be eager to make a better first impression for this season.

Baltimore @ Houston - Texans win
The only two teams in the AFC with winning records face each other in a great match-up.  The Texans will be seeking to bounce back and this is a bigger game for the Ravens, as with all the injuries sustained to Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb is just bad luck, especially to face an offensive juggernaut like the Texans with Foster, Johnson, Daniel at Matt Schaub's disposal.

Jacksonville @ Oakland - Raiders win
Jacksonville are coming off a bye but are still bad, Oakland ran the undefeated Falcons pretty close causing Ice Ryan to melt under pressure and Darren McFadden is creating great productivity.  The Jags have to travel cross-country and the Raiders will be wanting to close a game out.

New York Jets @ New England - Patriots win
The game of the week because Rex Ryan says it is, this should be a classic.  The Jets are seemingly clicking, getting the best out of Tebow in wildcat/trick plays; yet if it becomes a shoot-out between Sanchez and Brady, expect the former to have more mistakes and succumb to pressure from Chandler Jones up the gut, who is having a great rookie season.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati - Bengals win
This is a tough one to call and I am sure the NFL wish they could flex the schedule as on paper this looks an awful contest.  The Steelers are 0-3 on the road, the Bengals are 3-3 and need to win these big divisional games to be considered a play-off team and with the Ravens being rattled by injuries, one of these times need to step up.  The Steelers have doubts from their running backs, and not getting much from their receiving core.  This is the Bengals time.

Detroit @ Chicago - Bears win
Monday Night Football is a beauty, and a chance for the Bears to flex their offensive muscles.  The Lions were fortuitous to defeat a wayward Eagles, the Bears had their feet up for two weeks.  Their defence is riding high at the moment, forcing turnovers and scoring touchdowns from offense, defence and Devon Hestor has not scored a return TD yet, could this be the evening. The Bears will win and stay one ahead of the Pack(ers)

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood for NFL updates

DundeeNFL Dynasty League review

In mid-August I was given a tweet by my friend, Dan Ferdinand (@danferdinand) who asked if I was up to joining an NFL fantasy league.  I had experienced Fantasy football for the first time proper last season on the nfl.com website, I enjoyed some success winning the Plate final, but for a first year rookie I was chuffed.

Joining a Fantasy football league changes your entire outlook on the viewing experience of the NFL. Instead of focusing solely on one team and division, for me the New England Patriots and AFC East; you change into this sponge of information and knowledge.  Your depth and recognition of names and statistics become huge; you watch injury reports, waiver wires.

For the first time this season, I pay attention to the inactives report on Sunday afternoon, for example, if Greg Jennings is out for the Green Bay Packers (which is becoming as frequent as Darren Anderton on the treatment table) then you know a different Packer WR/TE will get more targets.  You also pay attention to who scores which teams touchdowns, for instance Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis does the horse cart work for the Cincinnati Bengals yet does not get the touchdown figures.

The league Dan asked me join was the Dundeenfl Dynasty league, set up by four gents from Dundee, Scotland (Ian, John, Russell, Martin) along with some other friends and wives.  Dan also asked if my brother, Sean would want to join.  Sean is always game for a challenge but more on that later.

For the first time I had to do my pre-draft rankings, ranking the top 200 players in my opinion based on total points expected for the season.  This may seem a trivial and silly matter based on us being unable to see injuries and momentum shifts.  For example, who knew that the Colts coach would be diagnosed with leukeamia or that Ray Lewis would injury his triceps and ruin his season.

It becomes more prevalent when the draft order comes out, of which I was ranked #1 overall.  This is a blessing and a curse, and led to much debate between myself and Dan about who should I take first - Tom Brady (my golden boy) or Aaron Rodgers (the reigning MVP).  Being 1st overall, means you are last in the 2nd round, so you get picks 1, 20, 21, 40, 41. The draft is electrifying and a brilliant night as you pick things on the fly, as people are swiped from you.  Twice I break Dan's heart by stealing the aforementioned BJGE Law Firm and Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh) for two of my RBs along with rookie Doug Martin of Tampa Bay.

As for my brother, I sat with him when he did his rankings, I laughed as he picked the Patriots defence in the top 50. And other names like Randy Moss, Dennis Pitta, Reggie Bush all appeared in his top 100.  These names would be lower on people's boards, and to make the draft night funnier, Sean was out on the night so his draft was automatic and yet he ended up getting those he wanted - Tom Brady fell to him 4th overall, he got Moss, Pitta, Bush and a steal in Jamal Charles (Chiefs).  Sean sits 4-2 after six games.  I sit 1-5, with my tail somewhat between my leagues although the figures show I have been unlucky.  Here are the facts:

Week 1 - Team Garwood 111.12 (0-1) lost to Forrester's Flayers (Martin) 122.56 (1-0)
Usually if you score close to 90 points you are good for a win, so imagine how I feel.  I have Rodgers(22.82) who lost to the 49ers, yet Martin has two high scorers in Matt Ryan (32.46) a great pick after 6 weeks obviously.  I get some good production but seem to get less TD scores from my receivers, and my pick of Greg Jennings (3.40) and his persistent injuries will be a show of things to come.

Week 2 - Team Garwood 63.96 (0-2) lost to Gronk if your horny (Ian) 111.54 (2-0)
My second consecutive Dundee opponent, and I get my arse handed to me.  Rodgers (10.16) loses to RG3 (30.44) in a huge mismatch.  Rodgers played the Bears and was intercepted, you need to have a QB who can avoid turnovers, maybe I should have checked the schedule better for Rodgers.  RG3 is a fantasy monster, 200+ yards passing and 80+ yards rushing and a rushing TD. My receiving core again fails me, not helped by the injury sustained by Aaron Hernandez (0.00) before he can register a reception, and Robert Meachem (0.00) getting nothing.  No-one on my bench would have saved me.  Ian also had Marshawn Lynch (18.20) and Reggie Wayne (13.10)

Week 3 - Team Garwood 91.72 (0-3) lost to Mistake on the lake (Simon) 109.22 (2-1)
Rodgers is getting on my tits, 10.62 versus the Seahawks in that infamous replacement ref game.  I lose to Andrew Luck (23.52) who is having a great first year.  My highest scorer is the Bears Defence (23.00) who beat the Giants D (16.00), but the receiving core curse continues.  Greg Jennings (3.5) and Jacob Tamme (3.1) are low scorers and the loss of Hernandez for a few weeks will be massive.  Yet Santonio Holmes (14.7) is good, but no TD costs me a victory.

Week 4 - Team Garwood 90.96 (0-4) lost to Gants Hill Raiders (Dan) 112.92 (4-0)
In a clash of Hogan v the Rock, undefeated beats unwinnable.  I face the man who brought me to the party. and despite Rodgers (28.06) winning the QB showdown versus Peyton Manning (25.47), Rodgers is guilty of one turnover that costs me points that could have won the game.  Dan gets great numbers from Brandon Lloyd (11), AJ Green (17.7) and Gronkowski (14.4). Something is wrong when my second highest scorer is my D (24.00) and my third highest is my kicker Matt Prater (15.00).  I am still scoring high though and I am competing, I need injuries to go my way and good things can happen.

Week 5 - Team Garwood 92.10 (0-5) lost to Brown Bears 109.34 (Holly) (5-0)
Excuses are for losers, but at 0-5 the excuses are the only things to have.  Santonio Holmes has gone on the IR with a Lisfranc injury and I lose to a girl, who forgets to fill two bye players and she still beats me.  Rodgers (25.10) outscores her QB Cam Newton (7.84) easily, yet unlike me she gains valuable points from her receivers, Marques Colston (31.10 - 131 yards, 3 TDs) and Victor Cruz (23.00, 50 yards, 3TDs).  My highest receiver is Jacob Tamme (5.00, 50 yards). At least Mendenhall is back, and the Bears defence keep scoring pick 6s which help me to 28.00, yet they are having a bye next week.

Week 6 - Team Garwood (70.54) (1-5) beat Team Epping FC 54.00 (4-2)
Break out the bubbly, I win a game.  Yet how do I win without a defence, and by dropping my quarterback Aaron Rodgers.  I dropped him as I thought against the Texans he might suffer, yet 6 TDs later teach me a lesson.  I picked Philip Rivers who scored 5.64 with 4 INTs and two fumbles.  Finally though I gain numbers from receivers, Jeremy Maclin (19.00), promoted Denarius Moore (16.40) and Doug Martin (13.10), whilst my brother got my curse with only one player in double digits, Brady (19.80), his next highest scorer is Reggie Bush and he gets no receiving/rushing TD from his team.

How I won, I do not know. But its my first and like Cleveland Browns I can smell a sea change and division title coming.  How I won, scoring my second lowest point total is bizarre.  Yet like the NFL for real, parity is here to stay and consistency is so inconsistent.

Check back with me over the next few weeks for fantasy updates.
Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood for all NFL updates.
Follow @DundeeNFL and visit their website www.dundeeNFL.com where you can read about them and also listen to their excellent 4th & Out podcast which is both funny and enlightening.

Superbowl XLVI review

The New York Giants won the Superbowl for their second title in four years, defeating the New England Patriots for the second time in four years, for the bragging rights as they ran out 21-17 winners at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

History will show that Ahmad Bradshaw scored the winning touchdown with 65 seconds remaining - but that only tells half the story.

History will not show that New England let Bradshaw score the TD, in essence losing the lead so that the quarterback Tom Brady could get the ball back and attempt to win the game for the Patriots.  Unfortunately, errors came back to haunt the Patriots at the wrong time as they could not make the catches to extend the drive and at least give Brady a chance to throw for the endzone.  The last play of the game with 5 seconds left, was a 51 yard Hail Mary attempt that evaded the hands of Rob Gronkowski after being batted down.  When the ball hit the turf, time expired and confetti fell.

The old adage is that defence wins championships.  The Giants had the better defense, the Patriots defense is one of the most inexperienced groups in years.  The Giants forced the only turnover of the game, an interception by Chase Blackburn outjumping Gronkowski, a play that a fit Gronk may well have grabbed.

Twice the Patriots had forced fumbles, yet they could not recover the loose ball.  And when they did recover the ball on a fumble, the recovery was nullified by having too many men on the field.  A costly error as Eli Manning connected with Victor Cruz from 5 yards for the first touchdown of the game, to make it 9-0. 

At that point Brady and his vaunted offense had only had the ball for one play, which resulted in inside pressure from Justin Tuck forcing Brady to throw the ball way downfield to no recognisable or near receiver.  The officials correctly judged that to be intentional grounding resulting in a safety due to Brady's position in the endzone.  Had Brady moved five yards outside of the tackle box or thrown to the sidelines, it would have been second down and everyone would have shrugged their shoulders.

To me Brady seemed a little anxious throughout the match - there was a vacant look in his eyes especially after the interception.  The constant battle of evading the insistent pressure from the Giants front four led to Brady being out of his comfort zone - forcing some mistakes.  But credit to him for making some good throws such as to Branch on 4th and 16 in the last minute to keep a hopeful drive alive.

People may well say the Welker drop was vital, yes a pick up of a first down at the Giants 20 yard line meant the Patriots could control the clock down to the two minute warning score a field goal for a five point lead at least, forcing Manning to go 80 yards minimum with less than two minutes and only one timeout - owing to some odd time management by Eli.

I would not blame Welker, the blame lies with Brady conceding that safety and the defence nullifying their own turnover.  Take away those 9 points and the Giants are struggling to keep up.

The Giants have played their last 6 games on a wave of momentum since beating the New York Jets, then beating Dallas, then destroying a weak Atlanta helped. They then became the road warriors with wins at Green Bay and San Francisco to get to the SuperBowl. 

The momentum and confidence was with the Giants before the game, the Patriots were worried about how to deal with Victor Cruz and the health of Gronkowski.  So in giving them a 9-0 lead in essence was something you did not need to do.

Yet Gronkowski was not fit, and Hernandez did his best yet he is not Gronk.  And yet the Patriots who successfully kept Cruz quiet in cover 2 all day, they forgot to go man to man on Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham.  Brandon Spikes did not help by being unable to intercept or bat down passes by Manning.

The Patriots were guilty of having history in their hands yet silly basic errors - Ninkovich jumping offside on 3rd and 7, making it 3 and 2 instead late in 3rd quarter - coupled with a fine composed performance by Manning in the pocket who again did not blink when the game was on the line; means that the questions of legacy and dynasty are now being asked in New York and not Boston.  As for that front four of Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka are as good a front four I have seen in the NFL.

Whilst the legacy of Brady and Belichick is assured thanks to this amazing 11 year stretch of three Super Bowl wins out of five appearances, the record would sure look better if they just sorted out that defence.  Hopefully, a good draft can rectify matters as offensively they remain impeccable.

As a big fan, this defeat hurts more than XLII in Phoenix as in that game the Giants defense beat up Brady and deservedly won.  On this occasion, it feels like the Lombardi trophy was there for the taking and much like the two dropped passes in the last drive, the Patriots hurt themselves more than the Giants did.