College Basketball: Early Observations

The College Basketball is in full swing and with most teams close to playing their 10th regular season game after the early season tournaments now ended, conferences are in to the strength of their non-conference schedule.

Fort Wayne triumphed over Indiana

In this instance, many teams can either decide to fill their card with cup cake victories whilst playing a top 25 side to look good in the eyes of the committee come Selection Sunday. The need for these games is to fulfill a season rota but also learn how your team is playing before the conference schedule comes into full swing.

Some games are built on rivalry in-state, such as the Big 12 West Virginia travelling to the ACC Virginia; both teams will be in the NCAA tournament but a win for either promised a big RPI victory. In this case, it was Bob Huggins' Western Mountaineers who left with the bragging rights and a road win to the resume.

West Virginia in their starting back court formation

Others can find a defeat can be liberating. Indiana Hoosiers, so often a perennial underachiever with Tom Crean at the helm defeated Kansas Jayhawks on the opening night; then followed a loss on the road at Fort Wayne, Indiana. A crippling loss for the Hoosiers, but should Fort Wayne win the Horizon League or even finish a close 2nd with 25 wins they can be considered for the tournament. And not all defeats are bad, the Hoosiers themselves welcomed North Carolina, who at the time were undefeated and handed them their first loss of the season.

It is this merry-go-round or carousel of chaos that makes the College Basketball season so unpredictable at times. Due to the one and done rule, teams are frequently looking for new schemes and integrating personnel into those schemes  You will not see a team like Florida who won back to back titles under Billy Donovan and had a returning title side of four starters; Kentucky with their frequent revolving door of talent attempt it but even they can end up in the NIT.

Teams that look good thus far are sometime familiar, Kansas Jayhawks (7-1), North Carolina (8-1), title holders Villanova (8-0) proving it was not a fluke and that Jay Wright deserves more props than he receives and UCLA (9-0) who went into the Rupp Arena, Kentucky (7-1) and served up the Wildcats first defeat of the season.

The Bruins 97-92 victory was nothing to do with the Wildcats having an off day, but more to do with the collective talent of UCLA combining in spite of an off day for Lonzo Ball, their heralded guard who himself had an off day.

Lonzo Ball silenced the Rupp Arena on Saturday

This victory which elevated the Bruins to #2 in the rankings behind Villanova, is indicative of a trend currently returning to College Basketball. Guard play and balanced scoring - up and down the divisions you can see good guard play making a comeback. From Kansas playing a small rotation with Devonte Graham and Frank Mason, Ball at UCLA to Al Freeman and Manu Lecomte at Baylor (8-0).

The idea of balanced scoring and not being over-reliant on a big forward in the paint means a team is harder to prepare for in opposition, utilises confident shot makers from behind the arc or in mid-range yet it asks for consistency at both ends of the court. Guards by definition are defenders, who hassle attackers forcing turnovers and steals then quickly scoring on the break.

Teams are scoring a lot, the Bruins scored 97 at Kentucky, a team who have scored over 100 points three times already this year. This is due to teams wanting to score more in possession and the growth of the three point shot, a trickle down effect from the success Steph Curry had in college up to the NBA.

There will still be good defending sides who make it difficult for teams to score and eat up their shot clock possession such as Louisville (7-1) and West Virgina (6-1), whose constant press will be hard to face for a full 40 minutes, and Villanova while they may not have the dynamic playmakers that set the NBA draft on fire, the diligence of the system will win them more games than they lose.

Markelle Fultz 22.7-6.7-6.6 on a 4-3 team

Games to watch for this week:
Markelle Fultz's Washington on the road at Gonzaga; Fultz is a top NBA prospect averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.7rpg and 6.6apg yet the team is 4-3 facing a tough road trip at undefeated Gonzaga (8-0) - Wednesday night.
Saturday - Battle of 2 undefeated teams - Villanova travel to Notre Dame (8-0) ranked #23
and a barn burner as Cincinnati (7-1) travel to Butler (8-0)

Keep watching this space for more CBB observation next to the aisle.

The Case for...BYU

As we enter the madness of March and the current Championship week, there are still some teams being slighted or expected to be slighted by the committee come Selection Sunday.  The most obvious being Murray State who lost the OVC (Ohio Valley Championship) to Belmont at the weekend, and despite having 27 wins may well miss out.

Whereas, you look at Brigham Young Cougars, currently 25-8 before this evening's WCC championship game versus Gonzaga; and the team have to win to be guaranteed an automatic bid  in case the resume comes up short for an at-large bid.

This strikes me as silly, that a team that like BYU is even being considered to be left out of the tournament. The tournament needs teams like BYU who can mix it with the big boys of the powerhouse conferences and play without fear.

This season BYU are
- 2nd in the nation with points per game scored - 83.8
- 5th in the nation with assists per game - 17.0
- 16th in the nation with rebounds per game - 38.4

In contrast they are ranked 306th nationally on points allowed (72.0) but at least the game they are involved in will have points in it, making for more possessions, high tempo scoring and excitement during the early rounds of tournament play.

Tyler Haws - 22.1ppg, 4.5rpg, 2.2apg

They have a great mixture of experience in senior Tyler Haws who is averaging 22.1ppg and junior Kyle Collinsworth the triple double machine who has had 6 for the season - 13.5ppg, 8.7rpg, 5.9apg.

Kyle Collinsworth - 13.5ppg, 8.7rpg, 5.9apg

Yes they have 8 losses (twice to Pepperdine who went 10-8 in the WCC) but the first four were to at large teams in the tournament - San Diego, Purdue, Utah and the Zags. Following the second loss at Pepperdine on February 5th, they have reeled off 8 consecutive wins including the road win at Gonzaga by an average of 13.8 points.  The closest game was in the first round against Santa Clara which they won 78-76 but Tyler Haws stepped up with 30 points for the win.

They are winning by landslides but they are winning tight games which will be a regular occurence in the tournament, they have a desire to succeed and if they win the WCC they will be a team that people will want to avoid in the bracket due to the high possession, high percentage shot making and interior presence of Collinsworth.

The case for BYU is made.  The committee need to make it happen.

Follow me @JamieGarwood

March Madness Preview

This is a March Madness preview from a College Basketball fan in the UK. Now it is important to state that the UK stands for the United Kingdom, not the University of Kentucky. Ironically, this year is the year that Kentucky Wildcats will be pursuing perfection and end the season 40-0   Winning the National championship and becoming the first perfect team since Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers team of 1976.
 
John Calipari has successfully navigated his platoon troops through a tricky non-conference schedule before a breezy SEC schedule that almost came unstuck in the first game against Texas A&M. They have fallen behind to some teams like they did on the road to Georgia on Tuesday night, and took the best shot of Florida, yet this team of mostly freshmen and sophomores have found abundance of character and desire to win.
 
Their defence is second to none, and now the offence is gaining traction and putting up numbers. The player turning heads though is Willie Cauley-Stein, a monster at both ends who has assumed the mantle of on court leader for the team. Think of Ralph Samson but taller.





Kentucky, even if they lose in the SEC tournament, will be the overall No 1 seed so who will be joining them at the top table. Remember a No1 seed has never lost an opening round game at the tournament. Chances are it will be Virginia and Duke, two ACC rivals who have played the best basketball in that division and in Jahlil Okafor, Duke have the prospective overall No1 pick in this years NBA draft. Duke have had to overcome some belief in their ability though the recent home win over North Carolina was one of fortitude and toughness embodied by Tyus Jones, a young point guard who is probably Duke's most important player.   

Virginia for me are an odd group, they have kept winning despite the absence of Justin Anderson who is having an appendectomy, so credit to Tony Bennett and his system and whilst they can rival Kentucky for the nation's best defence, they do not score enough offensively. If they were to meet a high possession offence team from the Big 10/12 they will be tested there.
 
So who will be the fourth No1 seed and have the chance to avoid Kentucky until the Final Four, it might be Villanova who benefited from Gonzaga losing at home to BYU. They sit 4th overall and if they win the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden they will cement it, however, lose and a team like Wisconsin with Frank 'The Tank' Kaminsky, Kansas Jayahwks or Arizona might get in. For geographical purposes they may well take Arizona, but they have to win the fast improving Pac 12 to convince the committee.
 
Who are the dark horses?
A lot has been made of which teams offer the best threat of going deep from a No7-10 seed like the current National champions Conneticut did. Will there be a Butler or VCU this year? Probably not as no team is leaping off the page when you do the eye test. 

Perhaps an Arkansas team led by Bobby Portis may well do, but you are most likely looking at a team like Iowa State or Ohio State to come to the dance, with George Niang and Dangelo Russell leading their squads respectively. 

D'Angelo Russell 19.3ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.2apg

A lot has been made of Maryland who in their debut Big 10 season have made some noise most notably by Dez Wells who is capable of shooting 30 points any night, but can their defence be disciplined enough to tournament action where turnovers must be minimised and chances taken. 

Dez Wells 15.2ppg, 5.0rpg, 2.9apg

For that reason do not discount Louisville, who have that stifling defence but explosive offence which won them the title two years ago. And ACC rival Notre Dame (led by Jerian Grant) after a 20-2 opening are rebuilding momentum helped by a 71-59 win on the road at those same Louisville Cardinals this week.

Jerian Grant 16.7ppg, 2.8rpg, 6.6apg

For all the talk about dark horses, cinderellas and bubble teams. There is only one bubble fit to burst during this tournament. If Kentucky do not win and go perfect 40-0, that will be a bigger story than the team that does cut down the nets eventually.

My final four prediction (before the actual bracket is drawn up is): Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin and Iowa State.

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood