College Basketball: Early Observations

The College Basketball is in full swing and with most teams close to playing their 10th regular season game after the early season tournaments now ended, conferences are in to the strength of their non-conference schedule.

Fort Wayne triumphed over Indiana

In this instance, many teams can either decide to fill their card with cup cake victories whilst playing a top 25 side to look good in the eyes of the committee come Selection Sunday. The need for these games is to fulfill a season rota but also learn how your team is playing before the conference schedule comes into full swing.

Some games are built on rivalry in-state, such as the Big 12 West Virginia travelling to the ACC Virginia; both teams will be in the NCAA tournament but a win for either promised a big RPI victory. In this case, it was Bob Huggins' Western Mountaineers who left with the bragging rights and a road win to the resume.

West Virginia in their starting back court formation

Others can find a defeat can be liberating. Indiana Hoosiers, so often a perennial underachiever with Tom Crean at the helm defeated Kansas Jayhawks on the opening night; then followed a loss on the road at Fort Wayne, Indiana. A crippling loss for the Hoosiers, but should Fort Wayne win the Horizon League or even finish a close 2nd with 25 wins they can be considered for the tournament. And not all defeats are bad, the Hoosiers themselves welcomed North Carolina, who at the time were undefeated and handed them their first loss of the season.

It is this merry-go-round or carousel of chaos that makes the College Basketball season so unpredictable at times. Due to the one and done rule, teams are frequently looking for new schemes and integrating personnel into those schemes  You will not see a team like Florida who won back to back titles under Billy Donovan and had a returning title side of four starters; Kentucky with their frequent revolving door of talent attempt it but even they can end up in the NIT.

Teams that look good thus far are sometime familiar, Kansas Jayhawks (7-1), North Carolina (8-1), title holders Villanova (8-0) proving it was not a fluke and that Jay Wright deserves more props than he receives and UCLA (9-0) who went into the Rupp Arena, Kentucky (7-1) and served up the Wildcats first defeat of the season.

The Bruins 97-92 victory was nothing to do with the Wildcats having an off day, but more to do with the collective talent of UCLA combining in spite of an off day for Lonzo Ball, their heralded guard who himself had an off day.

Lonzo Ball silenced the Rupp Arena on Saturday

This victory which elevated the Bruins to #2 in the rankings behind Villanova, is indicative of a trend currently returning to College Basketball. Guard play and balanced scoring - up and down the divisions you can see good guard play making a comeback. From Kansas playing a small rotation with Devonte Graham and Frank Mason, Ball at UCLA to Al Freeman and Manu Lecomte at Baylor (8-0).

The idea of balanced scoring and not being over-reliant on a big forward in the paint means a team is harder to prepare for in opposition, utilises confident shot makers from behind the arc or in mid-range yet it asks for consistency at both ends of the court. Guards by definition are defenders, who hassle attackers forcing turnovers and steals then quickly scoring on the break.

Teams are scoring a lot, the Bruins scored 97 at Kentucky, a team who have scored over 100 points three times already this year. This is due to teams wanting to score more in possession and the growth of the three point shot, a trickle down effect from the success Steph Curry had in college up to the NBA.

There will still be good defending sides who make it difficult for teams to score and eat up their shot clock possession such as Louisville (7-1) and West Virgina (6-1), whose constant press will be hard to face for a full 40 minutes, and Villanova while they may not have the dynamic playmakers that set the NBA draft on fire, the diligence of the system will win them more games than they lose.

Markelle Fultz 22.7-6.7-6.6 on a 4-3 team

Games to watch for this week:
Markelle Fultz's Washington on the road at Gonzaga; Fultz is a top NBA prospect averaging 22.7 ppg, 6.7rpg and 6.6apg yet the team is 4-3 facing a tough road trip at undefeated Gonzaga (8-0) - Wednesday night.
Saturday - Battle of 2 undefeated teams - Villanova travel to Notre Dame (8-0) ranked #23
and a barn burner as Cincinnati (7-1) travel to Butler (8-0)

Keep watching this space for more CBB observation next to the aisle.

Sweet 16 Preview: ACC dominance

After the first mad weekend of March Madness, where all teams play two games in three days over the second and third round before the semi-finals of the regions that we call the Sweet 16.  Numerous things occur including shocks and surprises aplenty culminating in the removal of 48 teams since Thursday.  Here are my thoughts along with the prediction of the Sweet 16

Izzo and Pitino stand firm
Following regular season campaigns that brought all manner of inconsistency, it is telling that some teams can be relied upon come the tournament when parity is established by only playing what is in front of you.  In terms of Michigan State who had a problem with depth and talent, come the tournament they have a coach in Tom Izzo who now has more Sweet 16 appearances than first weekend eliminations. 

Tom Izzo - Michigan State

Izzo out-coached Virginia's Tony Bennett for the second season in succession schooling them in a 60-54 victory helped by a breakout by Travis Trice who had 23 points as they held the Cavaliers to under 30% shooting.  Michigan now play Oklahoma, for the right to play either Louisville or NC State; again this is a tough one to call, but as Rick Pitino has showed, he is capable of fitting in a system that benefits the nervy tension of tournament play as they stifle offenses and allow their own dynamic players such as Montrezl Harrell to be explosive in transition.

Can we play you every year?
Rock Chalk Wichita Shock. Kansas Jayhawks are the big noise in Kansas, the blue chip program but it shares a state with Wichita State Shockers who have now had the better tournament resume than the Jayhawks in the last three years now.  The Shockers keep asking to play Kansas year in, year out in a non-conference match that will help both programs. Kansas refuse and Wichita State feel disrespected and feel Kansas are scared to play them on the road or at a neutral site.  Sunday in the third round in Omaha held court for this in-state battle and the Shockers swept aside Bill Self's side in a convincing 78-65 win.  They now play Notre Dame on Friday with the prospect of facing Kentucky in the regional final.

Ron Baker - Wichita State

The Shockers are a tight unit who hustle and can score from deep led by Ron Baker in points and helped by Fred VanVleet and Tekele Cotton.  The defeat makes sure that Kansas will likely not play Wichita State again until they absolutely need to again.  As for Kansas, they need to come back next year - hopefully reloaded with talent as no-one looks likely to leave for the NBA - but return with a scorer possibly Clint Alexander who was suspended for academic reasons.

Duke have the answer
Watching Duke's dominant performance over San Diego State on Sunday, their play showed the answer to possibly to defeating the Kentucky Wildcats who they can only meet in the National Championship.  That is my selection for the title game and whilst I think Kentucky are too battle hardened for this tournament, perhaps Duke remain the best team to combat the Wildcats procession to historical perfection.
In Jahlil Okafor they have one of the best three players in the nation, his size and scoring prowess can combat Towns and Cauley-Stein in the paint.

Justice Winslow - Duke

 Yet it was the tempo of Duke's play in transition that made me stand up and take notice; led by Tyus Jones dishing it out to Quinn Cook and sometimes you will get a breakout game like you had from Justice Winslow (26pts, 6rbs) did on Sunday to help matters.  Duke will be happy with the match up versus Utah this weekend and then probably Gonzaga who have been impressive thus far, but you get the sense that Duke are aware of the possibility of their own run to the Final Four.

ACC is the best conference
All regular season it was touted that the Big 12 was the best conference in the nation due to the possibility of 8 teams - only 7 got selected - making the dance, yet that was due to the fact that so many teams beat each other that no team separated itself from the rest as Wisconsin did in the Big 10.  The first day eliminations of Baylor, Texas and Iowa State left the Big 12 sheepish at best, and now the presence of five ACC teams in the sweet 16 (ND, NC, LOU, NC State, Duke) means that the argument is dead, the ACC is best league because it is the toughest game and makes players ready for the tournament due to the high intensity and close matches they experience in the regular season.

Sweet 16 predictions (selection in bold)
Kentucky v West Virginia                                   NC State v Louisville
Notre Dame v Wichita State                              Oklahoma v Michigan State
Wisconsin v North Carolina                               Duke v Utah
Xavier v Arizona                                                UCLA v Gonzaga

Elite 8:
Kentucky v Notre Dame - Wisconsin v Arizona - Louisville v Michigan State - Duke v Gonzaga

That leaves your NextToTheAisle Final Four of Kentucky v Wisconsin and Louisville v Duke
What an amazing line-up of talent, teams and legendary coaches going head to head in Indianapolis. The Louisville-Michigan State match-up should it materialise is a toss-up and too close to call. For me it remains there for Kentucky to lose, although the possible matches versus the Fighting Irish and Badgers will be as true a test as they have faced all season.

Follow me @JamieGarwood

March Madness Preview

This is a March Madness preview from a College Basketball fan in the UK. Now it is important to state that the UK stands for the United Kingdom, not the University of Kentucky. Ironically, this year is the year that Kentucky Wildcats will be pursuing perfection and end the season 40-0   Winning the National championship and becoming the first perfect team since Bob Knight's Indiana Hoosiers team of 1976.
 
John Calipari has successfully navigated his platoon troops through a tricky non-conference schedule before a breezy SEC schedule that almost came unstuck in the first game against Texas A&M. They have fallen behind to some teams like they did on the road to Georgia on Tuesday night, and took the best shot of Florida, yet this team of mostly freshmen and sophomores have found abundance of character and desire to win.
 
Their defence is second to none, and now the offence is gaining traction and putting up numbers. The player turning heads though is Willie Cauley-Stein, a monster at both ends who has assumed the mantle of on court leader for the team. Think of Ralph Samson but taller.





Kentucky, even if they lose in the SEC tournament, will be the overall No 1 seed so who will be joining them at the top table. Remember a No1 seed has never lost an opening round game at the tournament. Chances are it will be Virginia and Duke, two ACC rivals who have played the best basketball in that division and in Jahlil Okafor, Duke have the prospective overall No1 pick in this years NBA draft. Duke have had to overcome some belief in their ability though the recent home win over North Carolina was one of fortitude and toughness embodied by Tyus Jones, a young point guard who is probably Duke's most important player.   

Virginia for me are an odd group, they have kept winning despite the absence of Justin Anderson who is having an appendectomy, so credit to Tony Bennett and his system and whilst they can rival Kentucky for the nation's best defence, they do not score enough offensively. If they were to meet a high possession offence team from the Big 10/12 they will be tested there.
 
So who will be the fourth No1 seed and have the chance to avoid Kentucky until the Final Four, it might be Villanova who benefited from Gonzaga losing at home to BYU. They sit 4th overall and if they win the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden they will cement it, however, lose and a team like Wisconsin with Frank 'The Tank' Kaminsky, Kansas Jayahwks or Arizona might get in. For geographical purposes they may well take Arizona, but they have to win the fast improving Pac 12 to convince the committee.
 
Who are the dark horses?
A lot has been made of which teams offer the best threat of going deep from a No7-10 seed like the current National champions Conneticut did. Will there be a Butler or VCU this year? Probably not as no team is leaping off the page when you do the eye test. 

Perhaps an Arkansas team led by Bobby Portis may well do, but you are most likely looking at a team like Iowa State or Ohio State to come to the dance, with George Niang and Dangelo Russell leading their squads respectively. 

D'Angelo Russell 19.3ppg, 5.8 rpg, 5.2apg

A lot has been made of Maryland who in their debut Big 10 season have made some noise most notably by Dez Wells who is capable of shooting 30 points any night, but can their defence be disciplined enough to tournament action where turnovers must be minimised and chances taken. 

Dez Wells 15.2ppg, 5.0rpg, 2.9apg

For that reason do not discount Louisville, who have that stifling defence but explosive offence which won them the title two years ago. And ACC rival Notre Dame (led by Jerian Grant) after a 20-2 opening are rebuilding momentum helped by a 71-59 win on the road at those same Louisville Cardinals this week.

Jerian Grant 16.7ppg, 2.8rpg, 6.6apg

For all the talk about dark horses, cinderellas and bubble teams. There is only one bubble fit to burst during this tournament. If Kentucky do not win and go perfect 40-0, that will be a bigger story than the team that does cut down the nets eventually.

My final four prediction (before the actual bracket is drawn up is): Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin and Iowa State.

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

How to beat Kentucky Wildcats?

John Calipari is at it again. He has assembled another great group of talented young men in Lexington who although merely stopping by en route to the NBA, yet this group in his much discussed platoon system have the potential to go 40-0 in the season, a feat never accomplished in NCAA history.

However, in their first game of conference play in the SEC at home in the Rupp Arena against Ole Miss, the Wildcats got a scare only overcoming them 89-86 in the dying moments when Ole Miss' best player Stefan Moody who had 25 points succumb to cramp and fatigue.

In part Moody fell victim to the style of game that nearly garnered the upset but will actually serve as a blueprint for the rest of the SEC to get that victory that will stutter history and possibly ensure a tournament appearance with such a big win on any resume.

The Rebels played hard in terms of tempo and attacking the big defenders of Kentucky. By having small guards and players who short in stature like Jarvis Summers but big in game meant that big forwards like Aaron Harrison (6' 8") found it difficult to defend against quickness.  Kentucky conceded the most points in one game and that was also helped by Ole Miss scoring 9 3-pointers, and yet even those 27 points were not enough.

 

So which teams in the SEC can score quick, score a lot and convert 3-pointers as well as defend against those bigs in the paint and on the perimeter.  The Wildcats are not exceptional from the field in terms of FG percentage nor from behind the arc.  They are not as outstanding nor formidable as the Kentucky aide led by Anthony Davis that won the National Championship and perhaps this close victory at home will galvanise the team and realise how big that bullseye is on their chest. As the big dog in the SEC, they can expect to get everyone's best shot, so long as it's taken quickly and from downtown.

One team who may have the answer could be the Arkansas Razorbacks, a team currently 12-2 (both losses came on the road at Iowa State and Clemson - two teams from stronger conferences) and yet they have the highest scoring backcourt in forward Bobby Portis and guard Michael Qualls.

 

Sophomore Portis shows great touch for a 6' 11" guy in the paint off of both hands averaging 17.1 ppg and 7.6 rebounds whilst Junior Qualls offers the dynamism on offence and the hounding on defence around the perimeter averaging 15.5 ppg and 5.3 rpg.

As a team they are ranked 8th in the nation in points per game (84.1) and 3rd in assists (18.4) have a high free throw percentage and are decent from distance. Kentucky average 76.3 points per game but are big in the rebound statistics 41.4 in comparison to Arkansas' 38.1, that is in part due to the length of the team.  The only downside is they have to go to Kentucky on 28th February and also on the road to these Ole Miss Rebels on Valentines Day.

The SEC may have a king of the castle but there are sure going to be some more bumpy roads for Kentucky along the way to their supposed place in the Final Four with tricky road trips to Alabama, Florida and LSU to contend with.  If an athletic opponent can surprise and attack an up tempo game against these Wildcats then it might not be Kentucky purring during conference play.