NFL 2015 Week 6 preview

Week 5 was a mad slate of games, with tight encounters, overtimes, upsets and teams making statements. None more so than the Cincinnati Bengals who defeated the Seattle Seahawks 27-24 at home to remain at 5-0 and in command of the AFC North, with a career best performance by Andy Dalton along with big days by Giovanni Bernard and Tyler Eifert (90 yards, 2 TDs).

The addition of Eifert back to the roster following his season-long injury last year, has added another dimension to the Bengals offensive output which seemingly was restricted to the two heading rushing monster of Bernard and the now quiet Jeremy Hill, and the down field threat of AJ Green.  With Green getting most of the attention from the Seahawks secondary on Sunday, this allowed Eifert to get some targets and he took advantage. 

Is Dalton the 2015 MVP?

The victory also showed a grit and desire rarely seen by the Bengals in this Dalton era; they were 17 points down entering the fourth quarter yet there was little panic, the defence got some stops on Seattle who apart from Thomas Rawls (169 rushing yards, 1 TD) failed to get first downs when necessary, Jimmy Graham again restricted to a low day of 30 reception yards.  Seattle fall to 2-3 and have a lot of work to do make the playoffs due to the tough division they are in; yet they need to get more production from Graham, get Marshawn Lynch fit again and firing, and also protect Russell Wilson a bit better so he has time in the pocket, something he could not afford against the Bengals D-line led by Geno Atkins.

Three other undefeated sides, the Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons, all had a few slips in wins to maintain their perfect records.  The Broncos won 16-10 in Oakland despite no passing touchdown by Peyton Manning (226 yards) and again no rushing option.  Their defence made the plays with Chris Harris Jr. returning an interception by Derek Carr for a TD, can this defence keep saving Peyton's bacon throughout the season. A tough road test this week versus an equal defence in Cleveland with Joe Haden back is of interest.

Green Bay's victory of 24-10 at home to St. Louis looks convincing but Aaron Rodgers had two
interceptions, his first picks at home in nearly 4 years and the Rams gave Rodgers all he could handle but they won out despite Todd Gurley having 159 yards on the ground, the Rams failure was Nick Foles who had four interceptions on the day. The Packers defence is very unheralded currently.

Atlanta had the closest call needing overtime to defeat Washington at home 25-19, a pick six return by Robert Alford off Kirk Cousins ended the game. The Falcons needed all of Davonte Freeman 153 yards and the TD in the final minute to take the game to extra, but the Falcons survived despite a quiet day for Julio Jones and Matt Ryan who had two INTs. Washington are not as bad as people suspect, but these constant Kirk Cousins turnovers are proving the difference between their current 2-3 standings and being over .500

The New England Patriots came off the bye and rode into Cowboys Stadium and left undefeated with a 30-6 victory over a depleted Dallas Cowboys side.  After initial effort by the Cowboys defence with the now eligible Greg Hardy and returning Rolando McClain, they pressured Tom Brady a lot but once they got the looks right Brady found Edelman (120 yards, 1 TD) and the dimension offered by Dion Lewis in the backfield is proving a difference maker as he scored another TD, one that caused 5 Cowboys defenders to miss him.

Predictions

Byes: Dallas, Tampa Bay, Oakland, St. Louis

ATLANTA @ New Orleans

CINCINATTI @ Buffalo

DENVER @ Cleveland

CHICAGO @ Detroit

Houston @ JACKSONVILLE

Kansas City @ MINNESOTA

Miami @ TENNESSEE

Washington @ NY JETS

ARIZONA @ Pittsburgh

Carolina @ SEATTLE

Baltimore @ SAN FRANCISCO

San Diego @ GREEN BAY

NEW ENGLAND @ Indianapolis

NY GIANTS @ Philadelphia

Match of the Week

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Arizona Cardinals (4-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

There are a few good games on paper. The division rivalry that is the Giants at Eagles on Monday night; with the Giants seemingly trying to lose games always yet still winning against the now working offence of the Eagles. And the Bengals in another test of their resume versus the Bills in Buffalo; yet I am picking this as my match of the week.

Will the Bell toll for Arizona?

The Cardinals took no pity in picking on the remaining bones of the Detroit Lions last week going on
the road and winning 42-17 is as dominant a performance as you can imagine. Carson Palmer was the picture of efficiency 11-14, 161 yards and 3 TDs (to Darren Fells, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald).  Palmer even sat out the fourth quarter and the welcome return of Andre Ellington (3 carries, 63 yards, 1 TD) along with the continued resurgence of Chris Johnson (11 carries, 103 yards, 9.4 ypc) means the Cardinals are possibly the best team in the NFC West with a two game cushion over the Seahawks.  Their defence made a regressing Matthew Stafford even worse with three interceptions and restricted them to only 57 rushing yards.

Palmer's experience is key for Cardinals

That last number is key to this match up as the Cardinals go across country to Pittsburgh who

somehow won at San Diego as time expired thanks to a Le'Veon Bell wildcat touchdown that barely broke the plain to get a 24-20 victory on the road. Bell had 111 yards and that touchdown. The key could be that with Michael Vick still trying to embed himself in this offence, Bell is the staple of the offence and if the Cardinals can keep the bal in Vick's hands perhaps the Cardinals will get the victory; and if they can get pressure to Vick and force him out of the pocket and create mistakes and/or turnovers perhaps they can leave Pittsburgh with a big win.

Upset of the Week

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Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

If you are considering an upset this week then consider the 49ers at home to the Ravens one, albeit two 1-4 teams facing off against each other. The Ravens have probably been the biggest disappointment this season - considering I picked them for the Super Bowl - and the lack of deep threat means that Joe Flacco is limited in his play and there is no pass rush due to the season ending injury to Terrell Suggs.

That lack of pass rush gives an opportunity to Colin Kaepernick to continue his return to form, gives him time in the pocket and a chance to make decisions. His deep ball connected well with Anquain Boldin last week and oddly if Kap is in the groove, Carlos Hyde reciprocates.  Last week, the Browns dual threat of Crowell and Duke Johnson had big days so expect more of the same; and for the Ravens to be 1-5, unheard of in August

Fantasy Advice

- Roddy White (Falcons) with injury concerns over Julio Jones and Leonard Hankerson, and in a good match up versus the sorry Saints, is this the week Roddy gets his groove back?
- Anquain Boldin (49ers) the weak Ravens secondary bodes well in this match up
- Andre Ellington (Cardinals) slowly getting back into the line up; the fact he can catch and run provides ample PPR dividends
- LaGarrette Blount (Patriots) in the rematch of DeflateGate, the Patriots will not take their foot off the throttle and Blount can wreck havoc on the poor Indy D-line

(Please note, last week's fantasy advice was Antonio Gates, Larry Donnell, Doug Martin and Duke Johnson - all had double digit fantasy days. Gates was the No.1 ranked Tight End and Martin a Top 5 running back)

NFL 2015 Week 3 Preview

Last week, in my predictions I went 8-8 which is an improvement of the week before. So overall for the season I am a sterling 14-18. Probably the longest I have been under .500. I feel like the Chicago Cubs, but at least they are resurgent.

In week 2, a record eight teams remained winless including possible Super Bowl contenders Seattle Seahawks, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.

The Seahawks can be forgiven as they have faced a tough opening road trip to St. Louis Rams (who oddly lost on the road to Washington) and the Green Bay Packers, they now have Cam Chancellor back from his contract hold out to help the defence and a team which will still win 7-8 games at home and should get the 10 wins required to make the playoffs. The Colts are an odd creature, giving Andrew Luck weapons on the wideouts but failing to realise he needs to be upright to hold the ball as the Jets again brought pressure and blitzes to confuse the MVP candidate who had another bad outing on Monday night. The Jets are 2-0 tied with the Patriots.  The Ravens, I have discussed at length, in my blog and need to get a better balance which hopefully the returning Lorenzo Taliaferro at running back will do.

The other teams winless are New York Giants, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and Detroit Lions. Can you see any of those teams making a significant push? The Saints look to be in a bad way considering Drew Brees has a rotator cuff shoulder injury, it is anything but easy in Louisiana currently.

Predictions

Washington @ NY GIANTS

Cincinnati @ BALTIMORE

Oakland @ CLEVELAND

New Orleans @ CAROLINA

ATLANTA @ Dallas

Tampa Bay @ HOUSTON

Indianapolis @ TENNESSEE

Jacksonville @ NEW ENGLAND

San Diego @ MINNESOTA

Philadelphia @ NY JETS

PITTSBURGH @ St Louis

San Francisco @ ARIZONA

BUFFALO @ Miami

Chicago @ SEATTLE

DENVER @ Detroit

Kansas City @ GREEN BAY

Match of the Week

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Pittsburgh Steelers (2-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-1)

Le'Veon Bell is back from suspension

Big Ben is ringing it up

This is a great match up to look forward; a real clash of a high tempo offense versus a vaunted defence.  Last week the Steelers destroyed a buoyant 49ers side at home with Ben Roethlisberger showing his high class going down fields and De'Angelo Williams gaining three touchdowns for himself.  They did all this without Le'Veon Bell who returns from suspension this week and is expected to slot right in to the system but perhaps in a more catching role out of the backfield.  The Steelers defence has also brought its game this season versus Tom Brady and Colin Kaepernick, but this team is about the offence which seems able to score a lot more than you can.

St. Louis meanwhile showed a great defensive display at home to Seattle in their season opener, then they could not replicate that form on the road in Washington as Kirk Cousins and running back Matt Jones ate up the defence. Washington might not be as bad as feared on both offensive and defensive lines, yet St Louis to not back up such a resounding victory with a complimentary performance is worrying. 

Can the Rams match up with the Steelers offence, probably not but can they get pressure to Roethlisberger, yes.  Can they attempt to stifle the run game of Williams and Bell, yes.  It makes for an intriguing match up nonetheless. I see the Steelers winning on the road by 7.

Upset of the Week

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After last week's two golden picks which I did not pick myself. I am picking one game only and that is Tennessee at home to Indianapolis.  The Colts are in big trouble and this will be a big test of their offensive line to make sure Andrew Luck stays upright in the pocket and can control the flow and tempo of the game, and find his targets; it would help if they avoid penalties for holding so Frank Gore can get some yardage and avoid third and long situations.

Tennessee themselves need to bounce back from coming up short at Cleveland. This is their home opener versus a division rival, and they will want to make a statement in Marcus Mariota's first home game. Both teams will have to avoid turnovers and it could easily descend into a shoot out, if that is the case my upset may not happen but are the Colts running out of luck?

Fantasy Advice

- Lorenzo Taliaferro is back for the Ravens. He vultured a touchdown from Justin Forsett last week and is the red zone RB for Baltimore who need to make some red zone visits count for once.

- Charles Clay (Buffalo) a good TE pick up. A legitimate red zone target for the Bills who are throwing a lot with Tyrod Taylor, and with Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin getting attention outside, Clay can benefit in the slot.

- Seattle Seahawks defence. Cam Chancellor is back. And so is the Legion of Boom.

- Cam Newton (Carolina). He has no-one to throw to. So he will be running a lot in red zone.