Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints

Putting the INT in International Series

On Sunday 2nd October, the NFL returns to London with the first game of the International Series taking place at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. As ever the match up brought to the Great British NFL public on paper when first announced looked like an intriguing one, and yet as we enter Week 4 of the season the sides start to take shape in terms of narrative and you can never account for injuries.

This season brings us Minnesota Vikings (2-1) versus the New Orleans Saints (1-2) in a battle between aspirational sides trying to usurp divisional heavyweights and for some people it is the last throw of the dice.

The Vikings had a great start to the season, dominating divisional rivals Green Bay Packers with an emphatic 23-7 home victory, although truth be told the Packers were depleted with two offensive line starters absent and Allen Lazard missing for Rogers, not to mention the easy touchdown grab dropped by Christian Watson which may have shifted momentum. However, Justin Jefferson shredded a depleted defence for 180 plus receiving yards and two touchdowns. 

However, as dominant as that victory was the next game saw a reversal of fortune as a road trip to Philadelphia saw the Eagles win 24-7 with Jalen Hurts ruling the roost and forcing Kirk Cousins to endure another painful prime time outing. Cousins threw for three interceptions, two sacks, a fumble and a completion percentage of 58.7. 

Last Sunday, the Vikings held on against a resilient Lions side 28-24 with Cousins showing more maturity and less mistakes, with two TDs off of 260 yards but still a low percentage rate. Yet the side did enough to gain another divisional victory and stay atop of the NFC North.

The New Orleans Saints are entering the first season of a new regime without Sean Payton and still attempting to gain an offensive identity post-Drew Brees. They decided to go with Jameis Winston, a former overall No.1 pick in the draft by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2015 but for whom bad luck has followed him around with mistakes aplenty in his arsenal. This season after one game it was announced that he is suffering with four separate back fractures, which naturally, is not helping with his mechanics. this worry of his health has led to a return of poor play with bad decision making.

Following the fourth quarter week one comeback on the road at Atlanta - 27-26 with 269 yards for two touchdowns with no turnovers; the next week at home versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (his former team) bad Jameis returned with a nightmare performance - 25-40 236 yards, 1 touchdown, 3 interceptions, 6 sacks and a fumble as they succumbed to a stellar Tampa D who won 20-10 on the road.

On Sunday, Jameis attempted to outdo himself in Carolina but threw for two more interceptions meaning five in two games and two further fumbles to gift the Panthers there first win of the season. Yet he still threw for 300 plus yards meaning the modus operandi of the Saints is to throw when possible, and he seems to have made a good connection with rookie speedster Chris Olave who had 147 yards off of nine grabs and thirteen targets of Winston's 41 total passes, that is a third of them. Michael Thomas had 49 yards off of five targets (no drops). 

Jameis played in Tottenham Hotspur stadium for the Bucs in the last season before Brady and famously threw a pick six on his first possession in a game versus the Carolina Panthers. That was one of the first games at the Premier League stadium and that pass was greeted by a mighty roar helping cement the North London venue as a leading location for NFL games in Europe; there is for the first time this season an NFL regular season encounter in Germany when Tom Brady faces off against Patrick Mahomes' Kansas City Chiefs in a repeat of SuperBowl LV when he won his 7th ring.

Yet the Vikings and Saints are both undefeated in London, both 2-0 in their history, so something is going to give on this neutral territory.

What to expect this Sunday in London, well that is sometimes the beauty and curse of the NFL. In a quarterback driven league, it is hard to say what you are going to get from either of these guys under center. Cousins (when not on Prime Time) can manage this Vikings side to the playoffs, he has an abundance of talent around him to find; while Jameis' body is the big question mark. Luckily injuries to Thomas and Jarvis Landry are not considered to be long lasting and so both will be given the opportunity to star on Sunday.

What can be certain is that there should definitely be big plays - Olave had a 49 yard grab versus Carolina in defeat, and Justin Jefferson's scored two big TDs on opening week - so the potential for big plays under the lights is there. Can Kirk and Jameis deliver excitement and chaos that we adore about the NFL, or will they put the INT into the international series?

Super Bowl Match ups 2020

The Conference Championships are this weekend and we are down to the Final Four of the 2019 NFL season, with two teams vying to punch a ticket to Miami, Florida for Super Bowl 54.

With the four teams left and three games to play to crown someone Super Bowl champions, here is a piece about the four possible match-ups we could see in Miami on 2nd February.

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San Francisco 49ers v Tennessee Titans

The No.1 seeds have home-field advantage this week and would be looking to go to their first Super Bowl since the Colin Kaepernick led Niners who lost to Joe Flacco's Ravens in New Orleans during the Blackout Super Bowl.

The 49ers have been one of the stories of the season, getting a full year of health from Jimmy Garoppolo, the brilliant sophomore year of tight end George Kittle, coupled with an elite run offense and the injection of Emmanuel Sanders in a trade makes the Kyle Shanahan offence one of the best in the league and most entertaining.

The Titans led by Pro Bowl Derrick Henry who is racking up big numbers in the post-season would provide a huge challenge to the vaulted 49ers run defence and from a tactical standpoint this would be the most fascinating match-up as the Titans would bet their house on Henry to have the answer against that defence.

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San Francisco 49ers v Kansas City Chiefs

Garoppolo would have his chance at a first Super Bowl of his own, having been on the roster of the New England Patriots; but he would be going up against the prodigal son of Patrick Mahomes. A player who reminded everyone of his greatness in the divisional round against Houston Texans when he led his team from a 24-0 deficit to a 51-31 triumph.

As they were losing points, Mahomes was seen to be marching up and down the touchline telling players they will get a chance to show what they can do following a series of crucial drops.  It paid off.  The narrative would be about Mahomes versus the Salah defence, and will the speed of Kansas out run the 49ers secondary which has leaked points on many an occasion this year.

The narrative of Shanahan v Reid, Jimmy G v Mahomes, Kittle v Kelce - the playmakers all over the field would make this a spell binding attraction at the end of an amazing year.

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Green Bay Packers v Tennessee Titans

Probably, the least anticipatory of the four possible match-ups but the Packers bring their sense of history and a former coach is on the name of the trophy they seek, Aaron Rodgers is gunning for his 2nd ring to beef up an already Canton bound career.

This has been the most unlike career of Rodgers who has seemingly done enough all year and shown again how capable he is when he has decent offensive weapons to play with. This is helped by Aaron Jones at running back who gets good first down yardage allowing Rodgers to find the elite level Devante Adams where possible.

The Titans have a few weapons to stretch the field in AJ Brown and a resurgent Cory Davis to stretch the field which would give more space for Henry to exploit.

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Green Bay Packers v Kansas City Chiefs

Quite possible the match up the television people would seek, two big time QBs going head to head. Aaron Rodgers v Patrick Mahomes. A shootout in Miami. Rookie Head coach and much maligned Matt Le Fleur to put detractors to bed with a ring, and the esteemed Andy Reid looking to win his first one at the end of a long career.

The playoffs have broken nicely for the Chiefs, due to the Ravens defeat and the Patriots not getting a bye the cards have fallen for the Arrowhead faithful and the resolve they showed to not panic at a 24-0 deficit to come back and show how potent an offence they have at their disposal, served as a reminder that this might be the best offense in football. Can the 49ers or Packers be able to match-up, the Niners possibly but the Packers do not have the defensive talent to stop this Chiefs side.

Follow me on Twitter @NextToTheAisle

NFL 2018 - Week 5 Preview

The NFL starts making a bit more sense once teams have played a significant proportion of their games. Remember we are four weeks in and bar Washington and Carolina, all teams have played 25% of their games. That is a quota enough to start making clear who are contenders, who are also rans and who are looking for the draft next year already - looking at you New York G-men.

What did we learn from Week 4 - that the two best teams are the Rams and the Chiefs, they have two young quarterbacks who are ready to reach for that brass ring and make noise that needs to be heard. Whilst the Rams were thoroughly dominant in usurping the now treading water Vikings, the Chiefs had to come from behind to get a road win in Denver - a big step for Patrick Mahomes and company.

The false economy I alluded to last week was evident in the very poor performance by the Miami Dolphins who laid a huge egg on the road in New England, a team that still has question marks on Brady's consistency and yet could not muster a jab on them. The Chicago Bears are legitimate contenders now, partly due to a weird division where teams trip up at every occasion and also having a Top 3 defence led by Khalil Mack and Mitch Trubizky looking able to make plays and amazingly throw across his body.

Teams that are flailing for life remain the New York Giants who picked Saquon Barkley in a win-now draft pick but are struggling with Eli Manning getting any rhythm; the Pittsburgh Steelers are being let down by no consistency from Big Ben and a weak secondary; the Buffalo Bills could get nothing on the road at Green Bay unable to get pressure on an ailing Aaron Rodgers. In another two weeks it will be clear which teams are playoff bound and which are sucking for a higher draft pick.

Week 5 Predictions
Byes: Chicago Bears, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)
Following Frank Reich's brain fart of a call to punt the ball away to Houston in overtime and allow them sufficient time to get into field goal range, the Colts look a little bit lost. They have not got a lot of talent on the roster and they are struggling to be taken seriously; although Nyheim Hines a fourth round pick at RB had himself a day and is probably a fantasy football pick. They travel to Boston to face New England who have Julian Edelman returning for his first game, expect targets a plenty underneath which could well open up Josh Gordon for big plays downfield. James White was big in this game and the Patriots showed some efficiency on offense for once this season.
Prediction: New England by 10

Sunday
Tennessee Titans (3-1) at Buffalo Bills (1-3)
The Titans are probably the most pleasant surprise finding themselves 3-1 despite starting Blaine Gabbert for one game but they are not scoring a lot but they tough out games sticking with the Super Bowl champs in overtime; their defence is excelling themselves and this is despite a plethora of injuries that seem to mount up for them; Mike Vrabel is getting the best of his charges. The Bills at home finally after what seems an eternity could provide some resistance but can they get any fluency against that D-line of the Titans.
Prediction: Titans by 3

Miami Dolphins (3-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-1)
The Dolphins were woeful in Boston and a road trip to the red hot Bengals might fill them with dread as Andy Dalton the Red Rifle is throwing for 300+ a game and has weapons everywhere in AJ Green, Ross, Boyd and Bernard. The defence remains elite and will try and snaffle up any productivity the Fins can muster.
Prediction: Bengals by 8

Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-2-1)
The Ravens had a good road win against Pittsburgh and this looks like a good battle between two stellar defences, the Browns swarm hunting the ball at every opportunity while the Ravens will try to win the line and force Mayfield to throw downfield where Eric Weddle will be waiting. Flacco is getting big plays when he needs them with John Brown outside.
Prediction: Ravens by 4

Green Bay Packers (2-1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-3)
The Packers are being very professional, winning games concisely and not outdoing themselves or forcing issues while Rodgers still recuperates on the fly. The defence is exceeding expectations and will fancy their chances against a team struggling for consistency.
Prediction: Packers by 7

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)
This should be a great game, the perfect Chiefs have the league's most exciting QB prospect but they do not have a defence that can stop many teams. Blake Bortles has showed an improvement in game management and the ability to find his pacy receivers in open spaces may exploit this leaky Chiefs defence. This is definitely the biggest test of Mahomes career against the Jags.
Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Denver Broncos (2-2) at New York Jets (1-3)
The Broncos had a 10 point lead over the Chiefs and have shown a toughness not seen in recent years as Case Keenum does enough on offence; Von Miller must be licking his lips to attack Sam Darnold as his learning in the big boy league is getting harder with every week; talent wise they have not got enough game changers.
Prediction: Broncos by 7

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)
A match up between two teams with records they would not have been expecting, and the team that loses this matchup could be eliminated from play off consideration as they will be cast adrift at the bottom of their respective divisions. The Falcons have been firing on offence with Matt Ryan not turning the ball over and yet they have been outgunned by Drew Brees and Andy Dalton in the last two weeks; the inability to not get stops on defence may offer hope to the struggling Steelers but they themselves are poor on defence and lack a fire in them to stand toe to toe with rivals currently.
Prediction: Falcons by 6

New York Giants (1-3) at Carolina Panthers (2-1)
The Panthers return from a bye week and are at home to the timid Giants - a team failing to land a punch of note in this season. Barkley is running great but the pressure on Eli Manning to perform at a high level is not coming to fruition; the ability on both sides of Panthers will be too strong for the Giants to even get close. This could be the most one-sided scoreline of the week.
Prediction: Panthers by 12

Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
The Chargers host the Raiders who got their first win last week in overtime against the Browns, though they got a few breaks to go their way. The Chargers are still exciting but they could do with Joey Bosa to return on defence and would it hurt to have a decent field goal kicker to stop leaving points on the field.
Prediction: Chargers by 7

Minnesota Vikings (1-2-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (2-2)
At the start of the season, this would have been earmarked as a great game now it is between two teams failing to meet expectations. The Eagles are suffering a hangover from Super Bowl celebrations, and the Vikings got hit by the LA Rams buzzsaw which can be forgiven as they are the best team in the league. This is a hard one to call though Cousins showed enough in defeat to warrant another chance to back him.
Prediction: Vikings by 3

Arizona Cardinals (0-4) at San Francisco 49ers (1-3)
The winless Cardinals face the Jimmy G-less Niners, yet the 49ers were resilient on the road against the Chargers and CJ Beathard is a good set of hands in the offense and has weapons that are ready to stand up. The Cardinals could be picking one overall at this rate and be lucky to get 2 wins this season.
Prediction: 49ers by 8

Los Angeles Rams (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (2-2)
Expect more of the same from the Rams against a defence that was ageing before Earl Thomas' season ending injury on Sunday. The Rams d-line will be able to get after Russell Wilson and this could get nasty early if the Rams explosive offence catches fire again.
Prediction: Rams by 10

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Houston Texans (1-3)
This is Sunday night football and everything is bigger in Texas. The Cowboys overcame the Lions despite having 240 total yards from Ezekiel Elliott who is taking the team on his back and dragging them to unlikely victories. The Texans show plenty on offence although the inability to close out a Colts side they were leading 28-10 and nearly tie and/or lose the game is a worry for fans who must still have question marks over Bill O'Brien's tenure.
Prediction: Cowboys by 3

Monday Night Football
Washington Redskins (2-1) at New Orleans Saints (3-1)
The Saints are a very good side able of scoring quickly. From a 12-7 half time scoreline, before you blinked it was 33-18 due to the big playmaking ability of Alvin Kamara. Mark Ingram returns from his PED suspension which will give the Saints another dimension to their play. Can they get pressure to Alex Smith though in an under-rated Washington side, should be a good game.
Prediction: Saints by 7

Fantasy Football Advice

Courtland Sutton (WR, DEN) - have mentioned this man before and his yardage and targets has gone up week upon week. This week away at the Jets expect him to get a red zone look for sure

Nyheim Hines (RB, IND) - a 4th round pick who had a huge day with 2 receiving touchdowns and with a weak backfield in terms of depth and TY Hilton got multiple injuries on a short week against a still unproven New England defence, Andrew Luck will need a safety blanket.

Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - back from a four week suspension, it will be intriguing to see what this does for Alvin Kamara's carries and numbers. Either way it will not stop New Orleans' offensive juggernaut.

Nick Chubb (RB, CLE) - he had three carries for 105 yards for two touchdowns. One carry was for 1 yard. He had a big day, at home to Baltimore might be a tough match-up but he will provide that option for Baker Mayfield.

Follow me on Twitter for NFL @JamieGarwood

NFL 2018 - Week 4 - False Economy

What struck me most about watching the bewildering set of results happen on Sunday was not just the Any Given Sunday motto ringing truer than ever, but that there is a False Economy in the league. We buy stock in people who are hot and then the next week go colder than England in February.

This rang true for the Minnesota Vikings who were the epitome of complacent at home to the winless (now winning) Buffalo Bills; the Jacksonville Jaguars get revenge versus the New England Patriots yet cannot muster any offense superiority versus the Tennessee Titans who somehow have two wins both coming by a combined six points. The Miami Dolphins are 3-0 but have beaten three losing teams and face another one this week in New England in a tasty divisional encounter.

The Saints remain the most complete offensive unit in the league week in, week out but are being upstaged by the Patrick Mahomes show who led his side to a perfect record. The Rams are favourites for the NFC because no-one can stand up to them on either side of the ball.


Week 3 Predictions: 9-6 - Best pick KC over 49ers by 10 points, they won by 11
Week 4 Preview
Byes: Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers

Thursday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings (1-1-1) at Los Angeles Rams (3-0)
It may only be late September, but the Vikings laid the biggest egg in time for Easter; like Sunday they were either too late or way too early; much like our supposed hype for them. The defence vaulted Josh Allen to new heights and a Bills side much derided put on a show in Minnesota. The last thing you want is to probably travel cross country, lick you wounds and play the most complete team in the NFL. Alas, the Vikings play the Rams on Thursday night - the same Rams who are scoring at will and have enough on defence to stop the Vikings.
Prediction: Rams by 9

Sunday
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
Despite Matt Ryan throwing for 5 TDs and no turnovers, they succumb to bitter rivals the Saints in OT. The Bengals lost on the road to Carolina, but still showed offensive production but could not contain Cam or McCaffrey. The Falcons at home are the surer bet here you feel with Calvin Ridley having three TDs himself on Sunday, the two headed monster of Ridley and Jones may pay dividends again.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) at Chicago Bears (2-1)
The Fitzmagic is era, its over, turn off the lights, the Winston regime returns, crab legs all round. They may have lost but the Bucs were unfortunate in certain aspects and rallied in the fourth quarter for a memorable comeback. Now the decision has to be made in regards to who starts, however they would be doing Fitzpatrick a disservice should Winston step back in. On the road to the Bears could be a challenge, and Fitz can get the ball out quicker which may be necessary against that Chicago line whereas Winston is prone to lapses in concentration. Dependent upon who starts is how my pick goes, at the moment I'm leaning towards the Bucs in a closely run contest.
Prediction: Bucs by 2

Detroit Lions (1-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-2)
The Lions got a win at home to the underwhelming Patriots, and now travel to Dallas who lost to Seattle last week. The Cowboys have little or no offense and are reliant on Elliott so expect Detroit to load the box on run plays and contain Zek, and with Darius Slay in the secondary the Lions have playmakers to turnover, this could well be a road upset if Stafford does not get flustered.
Prediction: Lions by 3

Josh Allen was eye-catching to say the least v Minnesota

Buffalo Bills (1-2) at Green Bay Packers (1-1-1)
The Bills had the performance of the season, defeating the Vikings 27-6 racing out to a 27-0 halftime lead; the defence swarmed the Vikings in a showing that shocked many but Josh Allen had a coming out party to make passing plays and even hurdled tackles showing athleticism. The Packers meanwhile were not impressive again, their weaknesses being overshadowed by 'We have Rodgers' constantly - Washington got to Rodgers over and over, so if Buffalo can build upon that show they may well have a .500 record.
Prediction: Bills by 3

Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) at Tennessee Titans (2-1)
The Titans have probably been the least convincing side with more questions than answers remaining, yet they overcame the Jaguars in a field-goal battle. The Eagles have Carson Wentz back and they did enough to defeat the Colts but they were dominant in terms of possession outgaining by 170 yards and twenty minutes more time in possession. This was indicative of the Eagles last year, Wentz under centre controlling the game with long drives then suffocating the opposition. Eagles should have enough but they remain in close encounters not blowing anyone out yet.
Prediction: Eagles by 6

Houston Texans (0-3) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)
In this divisional matchup, this is a must win as the loser will no doubt be eliminated from winning the division and the Texans need to show something. Time and again Deshaun Watson makes mistakes, three red zone turnovers this season has crippled their offence and the line did not force enough mistakes out of Eli. A returning Andrew Luck is showing life and the Texans' secondary of the Texans may be under attack from TY Hilton this week.
Prediction: Colts by 3

Tom Brady will be seeking consistency at home to Miami this week

Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
Following the Patriots road loss in Detroit, this game becomes about AFC East supremacy. Traditionally, the Dolphins do not travel well to Boston and they would feel they have enough to overcome the Foxboro hoo-doo based on confidence, however, there three wins have come against the Titans, Jets and Raiders who have one win between them. They have beaten who they have faced but can they still trouble Tom Brady who cannot seem to find people downfield whilst Gronk is double teamed, and yet once the game was out of reach James White was finding room. The defence cannot make plays forcing the Lions to three punts all game. This will be close but could be messy.
Prediction: Patriots by 3

New York Jets (1-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1)
The Jaguars laid an egg themselves this week as they failed to defeat the Titans as they were again without Leonard Fournette and did not replicate their gameplan versus the Patriots failing for fluency on offence. The Jets had the indignity of losing to the Cleveland Browns, yet were 14-0 up in that game. There is hope in NY for Sam Darnold but expect an angry reaction from the Jaguars on home turf.
Prediction: Jaguars by 6

Baker Mayfield - The No.1 overall pick now starts for Cleveland

Cleveland Browns (1-1-1) at Oakland Raiders (0-3)
The Raiders are bad, they cannot seemingly play a full game. I remember Mike Lombardi stating this about teams last season, there are 45 minute, 50 minute and so on. The Raiders are currently playing 45 minutes and do not show up for the remainder. They burst to a 10-0 lead and yet left enough time for the Dolphins to come back. The Browns meanwhile are walking on air, the era of Baker Mayfield has begun and they must be giddy with this match up and the possibility of a winning streak.
Prediction: Browns by 3

Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at Arizona Cardinals (0-3)
The Cardinals are bad also, they seemingly cannot function and yet they were 14-0 up and lost 16-14 as the Bears shook off jet lag to get the win. David Johnson was involved but for only 31 yards on 12 carries. Sam Bradford turned the ball over too much forcing Josh Rosen to come in and attempt to muster a 4th quarter comeback. The Seahawks won their home opener versus the Cowboys and in this divisional match up should have enough to win so long as Wilson has time to make plays, though Chris Carson had 102 yards off 32 carries (!) talk about a workload, they forced three turnovers on Dallas also so expect more of the same versus the wingless Cards.
Prediction: Seahawks by 7

New Orleans Saints (2-1) at New York Giants (1-2)
You can have your Mahomes and Fitzmagic but if there is a more entertaining team week in, week out than the Saints let me know. They can go toe to toe with any team, overcoming a near flawless Matt Ryan by winning in overtime. Two receivers - Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara - had 100+ yard games, with Kamara adding 66 yards on the ground. They travel to the Big Apple to face a Giants team who got a much needed win in Houston, they got offense and shut up shop to get the win. However, can that Giants secondary and core stand up to the offensive barrage they should face.
Prediction: Saints by 8

San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angles Chargers (1-2)
Two losing sides meet but two teams going in different directions, the 49ers had bad news as they lost both Jimmy G to an ACL tear and with that goes any hope the Niners had of causing a stir in a bridging year. They still have Breida and Goodwin is back who had a good connection with CJ Beathard last year in relief.  The Chargers show potential as always and yet cannot get the victories to back up that up, expect that to alter this Sunday.
Prediction: Chargers by 10

Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1-1)
The Steelers redeemed themselves somewhat against the Bucs getting a vital road win to remain relevant in the now competitive AFC North, a home game versus the Ravens means no respite and this rivalry will be enhanced again. Steelers won thanks to big plays from Vance McDonald and Antonio Brown, yet the underrated secondary picked off Fitzpatrick three times. This will be a game won at the line of scrimmage, if only the Steelers had a ground and pound type running back.
Prediction: Steelers by 3

Patrick Mahomes - the front runner for the MVP

Monday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) at Denver Broncos (2-1)
The Broncos ran out to a big lead on Sunday, but could not sustain the performance at Baltimore. They return to Mile High to face the dominant KC offence and the hottest property in the NFL right now - Patrick Mahomes. The question remains though on the KC defence which bleeds points against anybody. The Broncos have those two quality wide receivers and a decent running back combo (if one remains on the pitch). Can the Broncos make Mahomes look mortal, we shall see, but no fresh quarterback has seen the field like Mahomes has, though the possibility of Von Miller getting him is appetising.
Prediction: Chiefs by 6

Fantasy Football Advice

- Tyler Boyd (CIN, WR) with injury concerns remaining over AJ Green, Boyd had a big day with 6 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown. He overtakes John Ross as the #2 in Bengals depth chart.

- Baker Mayfield (CLE, QB) now confirmed as the starter you can anticipate Mayfield going big against the haphazard Raiders. He will find comfort in targets such as Duke Johnson (himself one to pick up) and Jarvis Landry.

- Marquis Goodwin (SF, WR) had a great relationship with CJ Beathard last year in his six games as starter - expect more of the same. Beathard will also dump off to Breida much like he did to Carlos Hyde for catches in space. Breida has had a great start and luckily has not suffered as bad an injury as sadly Garoppolo has.

- Stirling Shephard (NYG, WR) has been a good receiver for a couple of seasons for the Giants who no doubt will be involved in a shootout with New Orleans this week.

NFL 2018 - Week 3 Preview

By the end of Week 2 there are some events becoming more set in stone; this occurs because teams maintain a week 1 performance level or they have a drop off because they may be on the road or suffering from home debut nerves. Other people maintain performance and still we are surprised - those that we are surprised by are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes; Mahomes has started his career with three road games and three road wins.

On Sunday in Pittsburgh, he showed no nerves as he threw for 6 touchdowns and no turnovers as the Chiefs gained their second win of the season; they are tied with the Broncos who defeated the Raiders at home. The Chiefs are in better shape and more impressive as they opened on the road while Denver have had the comfort of Mile High.

Cleveland still cannot catch a break; they lose by three points in New Orleans with new field goal kicker missing two extra points and two field goals. A team that cannot win, will always find a new way to lose.

Jacksonville are not going away and neither is Blake Bortles - he shouldered responsibility with Leonard Fournette hamstrung - throwing for four touchdowns as the Patriots questionable defence cost them again. Early days in the season but the Pats are behind the Dolphins for East supremacy but no shame in losing to a genuine contender in the AFC but may count come playoffs and home field advantage.

Week 3 Preview
Thursday Night
New York Jets (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (0-1-1)
A team that conspires its own downfall play a team that came back down to earth. Tyrod Taylor again played badly but he will probably get the start due to quick turnaround, while Sam Darnold threw for over 300 yards but two interceptions proved costly as the early scores came from costly turnovers. Miami did not have do much to gain the victory. The Jets may have a few more weapons but can the Browns get it together, we hope.
Prediction: Browns by 2

Sunday
New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)
The NFC South is going to be the toughest division this year, three good teams anyway but one team exceeding expectation. The Saints got over the line versus Cleveland though they the reliance on Kamara is proving them to be one-dimensional. The Falcons bounced back at home to Carolina, and they are a different beast in the Mercedes-Benz stadium seemingly. The Falcons have a greater balance on both sides while the Saints look for an answer before Ingram returns.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (2-0)
The Chiefs finally get home to Arrowhead and the atmosphere will be electric, the 49ers will be buoyant after their first victory of the season however they are going up against a rampant KC offense led by the lights out Patrick Mahomes who had six touchdowns and no turnovers on the day in Pittsburgh. The defence is giving up numbers though so it will again be a 60 point game probably, but does JimmyG have the firepower to contend with Tyreek Hill and company.
Prediction: Chiefs by 10

Oakland Raiders (0-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
The Dolphins have quietly gone under the radar gaining two wins to lead the division, and they face the woeful Raiders at home who have to travel from coast to coast. Although they showed improvement and lost only by one point, you feel the chance was gone and this will be a tough trip for them. Miami though have an efficiency and force turnovers that result in points; facing a mistake prone Oakland side that could be a match made in heaven.
Prediction: Dolphins by 3

Buffalo Bills (0-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0-1)
The Vikings have a lot going for them, but for a questionable roughing the passer call they may have lost to Green Bay; while the Bills were again abysmal versus the Chargers. Josh Allen is starting for Buffalo and he showed promise but he has no talent outside and if LeSean McCoy cannot get running room there is little chance for productivity. The Vikings defence will be too strong for the Bills
Prediction: Vikings by 9

Indianapolis Colts (1-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)
Andrew Luck is an inspiring figure gaining his first win since his return usurping Alex Smith and the Washington franchise who stutter despite the good efforts of Chris Thompson. The Eagles meanwhile, got thrashed by the Bucs and Fitzpatrick who showed up their questionable secondary. The Colts have one great receiver and the Eagles did well against one great WR such as Julio Jones, the problem was against a squadron of WR. The Eagles may have Carson Wentz back which would be interesting to see, and they may have enough.
Prediction: Eagles by 6

Green Bay Packers (1-1-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)
The Packers have Aaron Rodgers who is nursing himself through a knee injury, this may be the toughest game to pick as the Packers have a questionable secondary which Washington may exploit. Alex Smith has the skills to manage this game, while the Packers still need to find their offensive identity despite having a great quarterback.
Prediction: Washington by 3

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-1)
This should be a great contest, the Bengals came out firing against the Ravens and shot out to a huge lead that they never gave up. The Panthers will be licking their wounds after losing in Atlanta, but McCaffrey got a huge amount of yardage and can Carolina get to Dalton enough to force mistakes.
Prediction: Panthers by 4

Tennessee Titans (1-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-0)
The Jaguars are for real, despite the injury to Leonard Fournette, Blake Bortles had the keys to the cars and drove through New England with reckless abandon, Keenan Cole had a huge day with great runs supplemented by Ryan Grant. Bortles was able to find receivers open anywhere on the field. The Titans got a good game out of Blaine Gabbert but can imagine Sacksonville having a field day here.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Denver Broncos (2-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-1)
Another good even contest, the Ravens will be in need of a reaction following the woeful submission to the Bengals on Thursday night. The Broncos rode their luck at home to Oakland but they have a perfect record. Again though the big travel across country may count against them, the Ravens though face a formidable defensive line while Keenum has shown great poise under duress. A field goal to split them here.
Prediction: Ravens by 3

New York Giants (0-2) at Houston Texans (0-2)
One team will get a win, unless we have our third consecutive tie, and for all the promise and talent on display in the Big Apple there is a real worry that the Giants may be looking at a terrible September; is Eli Manning just past it now? The Texans have a home game opener and they showed promise but need to find better protection for Deshaun Watson who nevertheless threw to both DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller for over 100 yards each. The Texans may have enough, while the Giants are merely treading water.
Prediction: Texans by 6

Los Angeles Chargers (1-1) at Los Angles Rams (2-0)
The Battle for LA - but the Rams are appearing to be the most complete team in the NFL, they brushed aside the Arizona Cardianls 34-0, Todd Gurley ripped them up and the defence swallowed up Sam Bradford. Goff is executing McVay's game plan with little fuss and you cannot see anything but a Rams victory here. The prediction may seem harsh but this due partly to Rivers prone to errors be it fumbles or interceptions.
Prediction: Rams by 10

Chicago Bears (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (0-2)
This Bears defence is frightening, they looked good admittedly against a poor O-line of Seattle which necessitated to Russell Wilson having kittens; yet it is Trubizky doing enough when required either with passes or on his feet. There is a nice balance in Chicago which may come to greater fruition, and this defence against a weak Cardinals side may eat up more sacks again on the road.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at Seattle Seahawks (0-2)
A few seasons ago this would have been a prime time fixture, now it is two franchises in a state of flux and flabbergast. A one-dimensional Dallas side reliant upon a running back due to the lack of receivers against a Seahawks side who still have defenders to make plays. Can Seattle get to Dak enough, does Dallas have enough pressure to force Russell to get out of his comfort zone with Doug Baldwin still sidelined. Feel the Seahawks will sneak this one in an ugly contest.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3

New England Patriots (1-1) at Detroit Lions (0-2)
The Patriots have a questionable defence, they leave receivers wide open and cannot get pressure up front on third downs to force mistakes from the relevant quarterback; they face a good quarterback with receivers but their old defensive co-ordinator Matt Patricia who has not had a good start to his head coaching career. The Patriots should have enough to overcome this defence and the importance of having match ups and fooling the Lions is key, would like to see more of James White.  The Patriots got outplayed and even Brady cannot overcome that defence and scoreline.
Prediction: Patriots by 7

Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-0)
It is strange how schedulers are sometimes laughed at, and yet happen stance or good fortune results in hot properties getting their due attention. The Buccaneers have turned some heads with a road win in the opener in the Superdome followed by a defeat at home of the Superbowl champions, Philadelphia Eagles. Thanks in no small part to the resurgent Ryan Fitzpatrick, with 8 touchdowns in two games, but a defence that is swallowing up offensive lines. This is the last game of Jameis Winston's suspension, meaning the Bucs will have a huge decision to make. Fitzpatrick has made great start to seasons before and tailed off, but he gives a level of dependency you will not ordinarily get from Winston with fewer turnovers. Plus the explosive nature of three wide receivers gives them a match up nightmare for any defence, and facing a Steelers secondary that gives up big plays after big plays - can you see anything but the continuing Fitzmagic spell?
Prediction: Bucs by 8

Fantasy Advice
- Austin Ekeler (LAC, RB) - has to share workload with Melvin Gordon for carries but outrushed Gordon who was used more in screens, had 98 total yards on Sunday in Buffalo. Will aim to get a TD this week albeit against the stellar Rams defence.
- Philip Lindsay (DEN, RB) does all the hard work - 107 yards off 14 carries but Royce Freeman got the TD. On the road at Baltimore that may alter this week.
- Philip Richardson (WAS, WR) - 63 yards off of four targets, they are at home to Green Bay and their questionable secondary. Ample opportunity there for big numbers.

NFL 2018 - Week 2 Preview

It has been a while since I have done an NFL piece, but I enjoy writing these preview pieces and following the absolutely insane Week 1 this first draft takes place before the Monday Night Football double-header.

Week 1 was crazy, road teams doing the business. Some teams that promised mediocrity exceeded themselves and were even worse (Bills), while a team that has been mediocre did not lose (Browns).  Some things remain true - Aaron Rodgers is the best QB in the league, Tyreek Hill is the most dynamic player right now, Julio Jones still cannot find the end zone and Russell Wilson still runs like a headless chicken avoiding sacks.

It was a pleasant welcome back to Andrew Luck and David Johnson; and perhaps Patrick Mahomes is the real deal while maybe some quarterbacks are in regression like Matthew Stafford

Thursday Night

Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0)

Crazy that we have a TNF in Week 2, perhaps they should bring in short weeks after the first bye week but the NFL demands a product and this should be a good inter-division clash as both sides look to build on a first week win following the tie between Pittsburgh and Cleveland.  Bengals should be favoured at home but the Ravens defence looked particularly strong and Dalton is prone to errors and pressure. This is a game that will be won in the trenches. Fancy the Ravens in this one.

Prediction: Ravens by 4

Sunday
Carolina Panthers (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
The Panthers beat the Cowboys in opening day but was not convincing, while the Falcons were not firing on all cylinders versus Philly.  Matt Ryan is at risk of becoming the new Big Ben in terms of being better at home than on the road, the over-reliance of Julio Jones came to the fore again and freezing in the red zone cost them; despite their defence being strong. That will be key for them versus the versatile Cam Newton.  Feel the Falcons will iron out those weaknesses in home opener.
Prediction: Falcons by 3

Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Washington Redskins (1-0)
Andrew Luck is back but a mixture of bad talent and bad luck cost him a comeback victory, while Washington led by Alex Smith were very professional on the road to Arizona.  That is the difference here I feel, Smith will marshal his troops he has Adrian Peterson doing his best and a fit Jordan Reed coupled with a solid defence. Again Luck will have too much to do and will end up chasing the game.
Prediction: Washington by 7

Houston Texans (0-1) at Tennessee Titans (0-1)
It was always tough for Houston to go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots so no shame in that, while Tennessee again laid an egg when the Dolphins were there for the taking; but again bad play calling, bad play by Mariota who again got injured and they have lost Delanie Walker for the season.  Just when they get a chance to win they turned the ball over allowing Miami an unlikely win.  Two winless teams go head to head but you think the pass rush of Houston might overcome any trickery the Titans may have as they compensate for the injuries that have already started to mount up.
Prediction: Texans by 3

Philadelphia Eagles (1-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
Due to the Bucs amazing performance in New Orleans, this is the game of the week which could be a high scoring affair. Ryan Fitzpatrick again silenced his critics with a near perfect game and the Eagles stumbled through their opener. The Eagles need to find a balance and give Foles a fluency until Wentz is fit to start and can the two headed monster of Bucs' WRs Jackson and Evans pay dividends again.
Prediction: Bucs by 6

Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0-1)
The Chiefs were very impressive against a stellar Chargers defence with Patrick Mahomes ripping up the scoreline as Hill had a huge day.  The Steelers were 14 points up in Cleveland yet conspired to tie and with Le'Veon Bell still holding out, they have a ready made replacement in James Connor but the three interceptions suffered by Big Ben will be a worry.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at New York Jets (1-0)
This is not a game where you thought it would be between two winning sides, instead we have a game pairing a tenacious Dolphins side who are being underrated perhaps versus the next big thing in Sam Darnold who was excellent following his first pass being a pick Six. Darnold was helped by the expert running of Isaiah Crowell who had 102 yards and two touchdowns, Crowell and Bilal Powell will keep the pressure off of Darnold who will be called upon to throw accurately and not force the issue. The Jets may well be 2-0 come Sunday.
Prediction: Jets by 3

LA Chargers (0-1) at Buffalo Bills (0-1)
The Bills were abysmal versus the formidable Ravens defence garnering 153 total yards and giving up 369 to Baltimore. Josh Allen will most likely start following Nathan Peterman's dire first half yet Allen was only 6-15 for 74 yards. He has promise but he is going up against that defensive line. With Rivers throwing for fun - 424 yards against KC - you can imagine the Bills giving up 40 points again.
Prediction: Chargers by 9

Minnesota Vikings (1-0) at Green Bay Packers (1-0)
The storyline will be more about Aaron Rodgers health which again is paramount to the success of the Packers as Deshone Kizer was woeful when called upon, forcing Rodgers to lead a comeback from a 20 point deficit off of one leg. The Vikings were solid, not having turnovers and being professional and with Dalvin Cook in space gaining yardage with ball in hand or catching it will be key against a still questionable Packers defence.
Prediction: Vikings by 7

Cleveland Browns (0-0-1) at New Orleans Saints (0-1)
There is hope in Ohio, the Browns did not lose an opening game but they probably should have won but they maybe should have lost despite the play of Tyrod Taylor (15-40 for 150 yards) who outrushed their quarterback. The Saints were taken by surprise by the Bucs and being at home will help them but perhaps not having the one-two punch of Mark Ingram to complement Alvin Kamara is evident. The Saints should have enough though the Browns defence led by Myles Garrett is one to watch.
Prediction: Saints by 6

Detroit Lions (0-1) at San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
Following their woeful MNF performance where they suffered countless turnovers, giving up big plays on special teams and could not put pressure on Sam Darnold following his first interception - it could be a long season in the Motor City which has talent but no consistency. They now travel cross country to San Francisco to play Jimmy G, who showed promise and whose defence got better the longer they played in Minnesota, and have capable cornerbacks to nullify the wide receiver threat of Detroit.
Prediction: 49ers by 7

Arizona Cardinals (0-1) at LA Rams (1-0)
The Rams were not entirely convincing in their own MNF triumph against the Oakland Grudens benefiting from Raiders turnovers, the Cardinals themselves seem solid and have a game changer in David Johnson. However, you feel the Rams have more than enough to go two for two.
Prediction: Rams by 10

New England Patriots (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0)
A rematch of the AFC Championship sees the Patriots travel to Florida to face Blake Bortles. The Patriots did not set the world alight due to some bad turnovers which made the scoreline perhaps flatter Houston. Jacksonville's D-line ate up the Giants O-line which gave Eli Manning no protection so this will be a severe test for Brady.
Prediction: Jacksonville by 3

Oakland Raiders (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)
The Broncos did a good job to upset the Seahawks, yet the Seahawks are going through a huge amount of transition in terms of personnel. The Broncos have a dominant D-line which will seek to chase Derek Carr and stop Beast Mode from exacting his power. Coupled with the lack of pressure the Raiders got on to Jared Goff, the consistently inconsistent Case Keenum (3 interceptions) may be the guy to marshal this offence with a plethora of running backs along with Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas outside.
Prediction: Broncos by 6

New York Giants (0-1) at Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
The eternal battle for NFC East bragging rights has been bypassed by the Philly special but the Giants have promise due to the debut of Saquon Barkley and this is a battle of running backs with Barkley versus Ezekiel Elliott, who will win out and which QB will find his receivers. Janoris Jenkins was stellar despite the defeat versus Jags, and the Giants do not fear Jerryworld.
Prediction: Giants by 3

Monday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) at Chicago Bears (0-1)
Really NFL this is a Monday night football worthy game? Seattle travel across the country to Chicago to have Russell Wilson get eaten up by Khalil Mack who was dominant in the first half versus Green Bay. Chicago took their foot off the gas when up twenty points in Lambeau and this young side needs to make that step up and win a game.
Prediction: Bears by 7

Fantasy Football picks:
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) might well keep the job in Tampa, coupled with Chris Godwin (TB) at home to Eagles
- Get on Darnold (NYJ) at home
- Courtland Sutton (DEN) - the slot option underneath had 45 yards off of 2 receptions and 5 targets
- Bears defence as Wilson cannot get protection;
- James Connor (PIT) so long as Bell is out of the game,
- Adam Thielen (MIN) will get a TD this week consistently gets big yardage but Diggs get dibs on TDs


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NFL 2015 Week 5 preview

 

Very pleased with my predictions in Week 4, going a strong 12-3 for the week getting the Arizona, Chicago and Giants victories incorrect, which is odd considering I have been high on the G-Men since the beginning of the season although that was more a match-up versus Buffalo on the road that put me off. But a great win for the Giants as they get back to 2-2 and essentially should be 4-0 and running away with the NFC East. With injuries taking over in Dallas - add Lance Dunbar to the injury table - and general dysfunction in Philadelphia, there is a chance for the Giants to win that division with a 9-7 record.

Elsewhere, the Miami Dolphins pulled the trigger on coach Joe Philbin following their awful 27-14 defeat in Wembley Stadium to the New York Jets. The performance was devoid of personality and a microcosm of their season thus far, no pressure on the opposing quarterback, they could not stop Chris Ivory running over them and when the only chance you have of scoring points is via Jarvis Landry's kick off returns then the offence is to blame.  

 

Miami had gone all in during the offseason signing Suh as their big free agent, coupled with the big contract given to Ryan Tannehill last year but failing to give him any viable receiving options and still no positive rushing from Lamar Miller, and you get a franchise in somewhat disarray.  My belief was that the constant turnover of personnel would stifle the team and putting your eggs into the Tannehill basket was a mistake, he is not a great quarterback; whilst he may have a big arm he cannot show composure required during games nor manage the line effectively.  Tough times in South Beach ahead.

Predictions

Byes: Carolina, Minnesota, NY Jets, Miami

INDIANAPOLIS @ Houston

Chicago @ KANSAS CITY

SEATTLE @ Cincinnati

Washington @ ATLANTA

JACKSONVILLE @ Tampa Bay

New Orleans @ PHILADELPHIA

Cleveland @ BALTIMORE

St. Louis @ GREEN BAY

BUFFALO @ Tennessee

ARIZONA @ Detroit

NEW ENGLAND @ Dallas

DENVER @ Oakland

San Francisco @ NY GIANTS

Pittsburgh @ SAN DIEGO

Match of the Week 

v  

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

This could be a great divisional match-up. Last week I was talking about how the Denver Broncos defence could be the reason to take Peyton Manning to his swansong Super Bowl, and last week the defence again stood up to a test by nullifying Adrian Peterson in their 23-20 victory at home. Peterson had 81 yards off of 16 carries, not bad looking but that is massaged by his 48 yard touchdown run making it 33 off 15 carries for the best running back in football.  Denver were never behind in the game and controlled the tempo. 

 

The Oakland Raiders will provide a far sterner test for the Broncos, this time in the air as the Raiders possess two wide receivers in rookie Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree who could give the secondary fits. A lot will depend on how well sophomore quarterback Derek Carr deals with the pressure from DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller who are eating up QBs this season; and if Latavius Murray can provide ball security and enough rushing yards to not put pressure on the Raiders passing game.

The Raiders were unlucky in Chicago last week as they made enough plays to win the game, and they will feel unfortunate to leave without the W from the Windy City, it is that desire that will make them get up for this home game versus the division rival and if their O-line can get pressure to Manning then their secondary led by the eternal Charles Woodson will be their to take advantage.

Fantasy Advice

- Larry Donnell (Giants), with Odell Beckham Jr suffering with injury expect Manning to find his safety blanket for the home game versus 49ers.

- Antonio Gates (San Diego), is back from suspension a Hall of Fame signing back in partnership with Philip Rivers versus an ageing Steelers defence.

 

- Doug Martin (Buccaneers), with Jameis Winston suffering in the passing game (4 INTs last week) expect Lovie Smith to revert to a better balance and the muscle hamster back to the fore.

- Duke Johnson (Browns) a viable running back versus a Ravens defence who are leaking points

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