NFL Divisional Playoffs Preview

After going a quite woeful 1-3 in my predictions in the Wildcard Weekend, it is time to mean business and go totally against the grain with my picks for the Divisional playoffs. This weekend the No 1 and 2 seeds enter the fray of the respective conferences. From the AFC the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots come to play and in the NFC the top ranked Seattle Seahawks and Carolina Panthers arrive after the benefit of a two week break to rest weary bodies and prepare for their perspective opponents.

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks
In a rematch of the regular season encounter, when Seattle rocked the New Orleans hopes of gaining a bye themselves.  The Saints return to Seattle to derail the Legion of Boom and beat an undefeated team at home.  Seattle have the best defense in the NFL and will ask questions of one of the better offenses, however it is those extra dimensions of the Saints offense that may make this closer on this occasion.  If Brees can avoid overthrowing and over-egging the pudding, and rely on Darren Sproles and Mark Ingram to take some carries to the house.

The Seahawks for me rely too much on Marshawn Lynch, whilst Russell Wilson has shown great maturity in his sophomore season, I feel he does not have the weapons in the receiving core that Brees has (Jimmy Graham, Lance Moore and Sproles).

However, you feel the intimidatory feel of the ultimate home field advantage will serve Seattle well, although they have not ended the regular season as dominant as they would have intended.

Prediction: Seahawks by 6

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
The Patriots lucked out by having the Bengals eliminated, they get the higher remaining seed. In this case they get the comeback kings the Colts who came from a 28 point deficit at home to the Kansas City Chiefs to give Andrew Luck his first playoff victory.  While Luck was inspirational, let it not be forgotten he threw three interceptions.

That is where I feel the game will be decided, the Patriots secondary led by Pro Bowler Aqib Talib has improved significantly from previous early season nightmares.  Andrew Luck has only one receiver remaining in TY Hilton, and the one-two punch of Donald Brown and Trent Richardson.  Yet the Patriots run defense has been good despite the loss of Vince Wilfork.

New England will probably have the most un-Brady playoff game as they rely on the running back trifecta of Stevan Ridley, LaGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen for screens.  The Colts defense leaks points especially against the run. If NE find form and success with the rush, expect Brady to throw the ball no more than 30 times if that, and go to another AFC Championship game.

Prediction: Patriots by 10

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Carolina beat San Fran 10-9 at Candlestick about six weeks ago in a result that made people stand up and count these Panthers.  However, that was probably the nadir of the 49ers season, since then they have regained Michael Crabtree from injury which has given Colin Kaepernick options with the ball, something he has not had.  Anquan Boldin has had an amazing first season and Vernon Davis has been a stud as always, but Crabtree with his ball handling skills had 125 yards at Green Bay last week.

The Panthers probably could have done without a bye, the SF defensive line will be too much for the Panthers O-line with pressure coming from the edge to force Cam Newton to panic and scramble when they will then plug the gap sufficiently.

The worry of Steve Smith's health means that there are fewer weapons for Cam Newton to find and you cannot run on this 49ers defence. Whilst it is great to see Cam in his first playoff game, you feel it will be a one and done.

Prediction: 49ers by 7

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
The Chargers are that team that seemingly exists every year in the playoffs; the team that gets hot late on or fortuitously sneaks in using that momentum to gain shocks on teams.  San Diego went on the road to the Bengals and upset them massively, Cincinnati were a bit complacent and over-reliant on AJ Green who they shut down sufficiently forcing Andy Dalton to aim elsewhere and then intercept him twice.  Whilst Dalton was awful in his third successive one and done playoff game, the Chargers deserve huge credit for winning match-ups all over the field.

The game plan of utilizing the running of a healthy Ryan Mathews and the duck and dive of the ever impressive Danny Woodhead led to big gains on plays, managing the clock and frustrating the opposition causing mistakes that they scored off of.

The same plan will be in effect versus Peyton Manning and the high scoring Denver Broncos at Mile High. The altitude and away trip will hold no fear to the Chargers who won at Denver on a Thursday night when Ryan Mathews had over 130 yards and Denver had the ball for only 21 minutes.  If that plan can be carried out properly it can work, and the loss of Von Miller on the Broncos defense will be sorely tested against a Chargers O-line that gives Rivers enough time in the pocket; Rivers is leading this team well marshaling the troops and controlling the tempo.

This could be an upset and the Chargers could do it again.
Prediction: Chargers by 3

Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood

NFL Wildcard Weekend Preview

After a personal break due to full time work commitments, it is nice to be back for the Wildcard Weekend with my preview of the four games involving the AFC and NFC 3 to 6 seeds with the chance to get one step closer to the Super Bowl in New Jersey this year.

There are some exciting match-ups and after the wild way Week 17 went down, the NFL must be hoping that these games do not fail to disappoint.

Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
It is interesting how the football schedule Gods work, as these two teams played each other only two weeks ago during the regular season.  On that occasion, the Colts were the road team and convincingly won 23-7 in Arrowhead as the Chiefs season slowed down to a stop once they could not overcome the Denver Broncos juggernaut and secured the No 5 seed.

Having opened the season 9-0, the Chiefs ended the season 2-5, however Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles both played really well.  The fault for that record falls into the lap of the Chiefs defence that succumbed to injury but hopefully the return of Justin Houston will be welcome news as the game plan of attacking the quarterback, and in this case, Andrew Luck will be key.

Luck has done well without his number one receiver Reggie Wayne lost to injury for the year.  They do however, have the one two punch of Donald Brown and Trent Richardson. Whilst Richardson's production has been questioned he has slowly become accustomed to his role and Brown has been making big plays to get Richardson the chance to punch it into the end zone of goal-line carries.

This could be the tightest of the contests over the weekend, but then you could say that about most of them. However, I feel the Chiefs will have enough in terms of game management and get more from their defence in this one off contest.
Prediction: Chiefs by 4

New Orleans Saints (11-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
This should be a great match-up as you have two high scoring offences going at it head to head.  Tellingly, the Saints are not the same team outdoors as they are in a dome game, they have a losing record (3-5) this season including losses at Seattle and Carolina.  The Eagles are similar to both of those teams, in that they have offences with both weapons at receiving and in the backfield, with the key weapon being in the backfield. 

The Eagles have LeSean McCoy the 2013 rushing leader in the NFL as well as DeSean Jackson, Riley Cooper and Zach Ertz; also Nick Foles has thrown for 21 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions in his starts this season since replacing Michael Vick.

Foles has shown great leadership and game management, managing the ball, distributing it well and limiting turnovers helped by an O-line that has played all 16 games this season.

Drew Brees will keep any side in the game, and expect Sean Payton to have some trick plays up his sleeve for this testing encounter.  You just think the losing record of the Saints will be too much for even Brees to overcome, and the Eagles ended the season very well in both a professional and entertaining manner.
Prediction: Eagles by 6

San Diego Chargers (9-7) at Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
The Chargers must have been wishing for the late afternoon match up on Saturday, rather than the cross country early start on Sunday away to the Bengals.

The Chargers got in by the skin of their teeth in overtime versus a second string Chiefs side at home, helped by losses to Baltimore and Miami. The Chargers have Philip Rivers playing at a Pro Bowl level and Danny Woodhead has been a star for them as has Ryan Mathews playing at close to 100% capacity.

The Bengals have suffered their own injuries on defence to Geno Atkins and Leon Hall, however, the offence has been rolling along avoiding banana skins and making sure they won the AFC North convincingly in the end.

Andy Dalton is in his third consecutive postseason and should garner a playoff victory and a trip to Foxboro in this one.
Prediction: Bengals by 7

San Francisco 49ers (12-4) at Green Bay Packers (8-7-1)
Aaron Rodgers rode in on his white horse and helped the Packers win the NFC North by winning in Chicago thanks to a last minute 47 yard hook up with Randall Cobb who had two for the day, and the weirdest touchdown ever.

The prize for the Packers is a home playoff game in the freezing cold of Lambeau Field with the visiting 49ers coming to Wisconsin.

Earlier in the season, in the first week in fact, the 49ers triumphed 34-28 over the Packers at Candlestick. That match saw Colin Kaepernick's first 400 yard plus game and the huge hit by Clay Matthews on Kaepernick when out of bounds.  On that day, Rodgers had little joy against the vaunted Niners defence which is still intact and no new injury news. 

Whilst it may be cold and windy, in terms of match-ups the 49ers have the game with Frank Gore running and the returning Michael Crabtree to add to Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. The Niners know though that all roads lead through Seattle.
Prediction: Niners by 3

Follow me at twitter @JamieGarwood and let me know your picks for this weekend.
Next weekend I predict it will be Bengals @ Patriots, Chiefs @ Broncos, Eagles @ Panthers, 49ers @ Seahawks (a week early, but not if New Orleans win)

NFL Wildcard Preview

After 17 weeks of bone-crunching, mouth-whetting amazing football with ups and downs across the boards and after Black Monday when seven coaches were shown the door, we now have 12 teams remaining across two divisions with eight teams (four in each over two games) starting the Wildcard weekend where teams play for the right to go on the road to a higher ranked conference opponent.  There are some great match-ups starting with the Bengals on the road at the Texans.

#6 Cincinnati v #3 Houston
Oddly for a 6-3 matchup in the playoffs you have a team that has played with momentum in the last few weeks going on the road to face a team that has lost three of its last four games which saw them fall from the No.1 overall seed to No.3 and no bye week. The Bengals have a quarterback who has won a play off game in Andy Dalton, whilst this is Matt Schaub's first play off game as he missed the play offs last year due to injury.

Dalton is getting help from his offensive weapons, Ben-Jarvus Green Ellis is getting good mileage from RB not Adrian Peterson numbers but 100 yards a game is not bad.  And they have AJ Green who is becoming as potent as Andre Johnson, the Bengal defence is playing with fire aswell.

The Texans need to go back to the drawing board they have done away with Arian Foster touches and instead relying on the deep threat of Johnson, yet if the Bengals can tie up Johnson there are no other weapons of variable ability to throw to.

Prediction: Bengals by 3

#6 Minnesota v #3 Green Bay
One week after the Vikings defeated the Packers to enter the play offs, it is a repeat of the match but this time it is on the hallowed turf of Lambeau field.

Whilst Adrian Peterson has been a freak this year, last week it was Christian Ponder's best game as a pro wiht 200+ yards and 3 touchdowns allowed AP to eat up those holes.  Expect Green Bay to press Ponder when he drops back and shut off the bubbles/screens he usually throws.

This is also a different game, last week the Packers who were probably going 80% due to their play off place being assured, will be pumped for this game and wanting to make amends for the last Lambeau play off game when the Giants came in and shocked them.  Plus the Packers have a decent QB in Aaron Rodgers, you may have heard of him - last week he had 300+ yards and 4 TDs in a losing effort.

Prediction: Packers by 8

#5 Indianapolis v #4 Baltimore
This has all manner of storylines, you have the team that left Baltimore the Colts returning with the prodigal son in Andrew Luck, the continuing recovery of Chuck Pagano the Colts coach from leukeamia and now the Ravens' linebacker Ray Lewis has annouced this is his last ride as he is set to retire once the Ravens' play off run ends either in defeat or victory.

The Ravens much like the Packers were assured of a play off berth and were half-hearted versus the Bengals last week; they have a lot of talent still at their disposal in Joe Flacco and Ray Rice.  If the Ravens can use Rice's dynamism effectively as they should do then expect them to run this game.

The Colts are a different animal on the road away from Lucas Oil Field, and whilst Luck has been amazing at times he has still committed turnovers (24 in total) and this defence with a returning Lewis still has Ed Reed on its roster and can generate enough pressure to confuse and disrupt Luck's rhythm.

Prediction: Ravens by 10

#5 Seattle v #4 Washington
This is the game of the weekend and the toughest one to predict owing to both teams having X factors under centre in Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III - both rookie quarterbacks who have led teams with low expectations to the play offs.

RG3 is a dynamic player, but has been helped by Alfred Morris his running back whose big numbers have helped open up receivers and led to few turnovers by the Redskins.  The defence has improved significantly under Jim Haslett and they may be able to create pressure.

Seattle is very much similar to Washington, a rookie quarterback helped out by a good running back. The only difference is that Seattle's O-line does allow pressure to get to Wilson, yet their defence has been huge for the team in general.  That makes this game all the more tougher to predict, it will be close but expect the Seahawks defence to get to RG3 whose mobility has not been the same since he sat out a game a few week ago.

Prediction: Seahawks by 3

That would make my Divisional play offs these:
AFC - Bengals @ Broncos and Ravens @ Patriots
NFC - Seahawks @ Falcons and Packers @ 49ers