Beware The LA Rams

BEWARE THE RAMS

After a thrilling Week 10 of NFL action where a lot of divisional and intra-conference action (teams facing each other for the first time in four years) it was the match-up at the tremendous new stadium in Inglewood, home to both Los Angeles teams that turned heads.

The Los Angeles Rams hosted the once rampant Seattle Seahawks - whose wings have now definitely been clipped following a 5-0 start to the season and an MVP calibre start by Russell Wilson - have now lost 3 out of the last 4 to land on a 6-3 record following the Rams 23-16 victory yesterday.

The scoreline marks it out as a tight affair but the Rams forced three turnovers (two interceptions and a fumble on the QB), they had 33 minutes of the clock due to their three headed monster at running back (Darrell Henderson, Malcolm Brown, Cam Akers) to hog the ball, yet it is the wealth of receiving talent at Jared Goff's disposal that jumps out - three receivers with over 50 yards (Josh Reynolds - 94, Tyler Higbee - 60 and Cooper Kupp - 50) as well as six receptions for Robert Woods - helped them amass 302 air yards to marry that 106 rushing yards off of 29 rushing attempts.

Yet it is the defence that again is resolute, while playing the Seahawks the numbers will inflate due to the structure of the game changing with Russell forcing plays they were restrained to 248 passing yards, top receiver Tyler Lockett had only 66 yards off of 5 grabs. 

The Rams allow on average 199.7ypg in passing and 96.8ypg on the ground; these are stellar numbers in the scheme of a season that is altering as a more pass happy league and a season where many teams are having success on the ground as the season draws on - think of DeAndre Swift and Antonio Gibson.

They have the best defender in the league in Aaron Donald who heaps pressure on the QB but he was overshadowed by his teammates - Leonard Floyd (3), Terrell Lewis (2) and Michael Brockers (1) - who combined for six sacks on Wilson yesterday.

This defence will be tested over the last seven games on the season no doubt. They travel to Tampa Bay for Monday Night football next week where the Bucs seemed to find the balance on offense following the egg laid against New Orleans with Roland Jones having a 98 yard touchdown amongst a huge day for himself.

There follows  back-to-back division tussles at San Francsico and on the road at Arizona; injuries have scupped the Niners attempt to defend their conference title while the darling Cardinals with Kyler Murray are atop the NFC West standings on a 2-0 division record; the two games between the Rams and Cardinals will most likely dictate who gets the home field divisional round playoff game and maybe even the overall #1 seed if the Saints cannot maintain fluidity if Drew Brees misses time with his rib injury.

After the first of the Arizona contests is an AFC East hosting of the Patriots and the sorry Jets before ending with a holiday double-bill of Seattle on the road and Arizona at home in the new year perhaps for the division title.

It promises to be an interesting end for the most competitive division in the NFL - the balance of the Rams is what stands out (passing offense, ground attack, stellar defence) against the Cardinals who are creative and riding a sea of consistency currently due to the air attack of Murray to his illustrious receivers. 

However, do not discount the Seahawks who are dearly missing the running back tandem of Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde who are both injured at least to take the onus off of Wilson to make magic happen always - if they get the ground force back the schedule is not awful. After this Thursday where they meet the Cardinals again they have a four game stretch of at Philadelphia, v Giants, v Jets and then in the nations capital to face the franchise before ending with Rams and at 49ers. On the face of it that is five winnable games on paper if they get healthy and still have Russell Wilson under centre.

Fascinating to see if two or even three teams from the NFC West make the now seven team playoff structure.

NFL Regular Seaon Review 2015

This might be a different review. As I will look back on the division predictions I made previously on my blog for both the AFC and NFC, and give my thoughts on each division, leading into an overview of the Wildcard playoffs

AFC East
Prediction: New England – Miami – Buffalo – NY Jets
Actual: NE – NYJ – BUF – MIA

The winner of the division was never in doubt post Deflategate, but the dominance of the Patriots as the best team in the AFC was put in jeopardy by their constant injury struggles. The loss of Dion Lewis was a big negative as with LaGarrette Blount also sidelined, New England have no pure running back although Steven Jackson can hopefully alleviate some concerns. The return of Julian Edelman will give added security on third down where the Patriots have been woeful of late.
As for the rest of the division, you felt this was the year a wildcard team could materialise, yet the Jets did what they do best and came up short at the end, albeit versus their former coach Rex Ryan who suffered with injuries and consistency in Buffalo. As for Miami, they fork out bundles of cash to free agents and get nothing back; Tannehill put into doubt his viability for a big contract and Suh did not beef up a defence that demanded improvement.

AFC North
Prediction: Baltimore – Cincinnati – Pittsburgh – Cleveland
Actual: CIN – PIT – BAL – CLE

This is my egg on face call as I picked the Ravens to go all the way, but the loss of Terrell Suggs in the first week depleted their defence which had a novice secondary, then Joe Flacco,  Justin Forsett and Steve Smith all ended up on IR, prompting a salvage mission of a season. At least they did not succumb to the wooden spoon behind the mess that is still the Browns. Either Johnny Manziel wants out or he is just bad, he might well be shipped or traded now.
Andy Dalton remains the new king of regular season by being pretty much regular and steady until a featured thumb led to AJ McCarron taking over. The Bengals defence was much touted but that fell away as the season went on. Great job by the Steelers to make the playoffs with a high octane offence with Antonio Brown to the fore. They are a team to avoid but the two rivals go head to head in Cincy in the playoffs.

AFC West
Prediction: Denver – Kansas City – San Diego – Oakland
Actual: DEN – KC – OAK – SD

Despite Peyton Manning having the worst statistical year of his life, more interceptions than touchdowns, the Broncos led by a stellar defence to take blame away from Manning before his injury and then the impressive Brock Osweilier meant the Broncos kept the Chiefs at bay and thanks to an OT victory over New England at home got the No.1 seed although the possibility of either the Chiefs or even the Steelers could give Denver fits. And does Manning start?
As for the Chiefs they won 11 straight to face Houston in the playoffs, rich reward to get the weakest AFC division winner. Andy Reid and Alex Smith have marshalled the team after the awful 1-4 start and the loss of Jamaal Charles to give KC an edge and toughness. The return of Justin Houston for the Houston match up is key perhaps.
San Diego were woeful, no potency on offence and with one eye on a move to Los Angeles, the team played home games to virtually away crowds. And it was pleasing to see the Oakland Raiders improve significantly to 7-9 thanks to a leap by Derek Carr and the rookie Amari Cooper. Although they lost steam, there is something brewing in Oakland. And thank Charles Woodson for an incredible career.

AFC South
Prediction : Houston – Indianapolis – Jacksonville – Tennessee
Actual: HOU – IND – JAX – TEN

The only division I predicted correctly as my punt on the Texans overpowering Andrew Lick came true. Well not really. In the worst division in the NFL, the Texans survived longest as the Colts could not do much without Luck and the Texans got enough from Brian Hoyer and then Brandon Weeden to advance, all without Arian Foster for most of the season, thank God they had DeAndre Hopkins have a great season.
Jacksonville showed significant improvement from Blake Bortles and their receiving core and a fully fit TJ Yeldon at running back next year will be interesting.
Tennessee had moments with Marcus Mariota but the lack of talent across the roster meant they have the number 1 pick in the draft and are in a position to get a host of picks as Mariota did look the part, but will he be reunited with Chip Kelly, who departed the Eagles.

NFC East
Prediction: NY Giants – Dallas – Philadelphia – Washington
Actual: WAS – PHI – NYG – DAL

The toughest division to call provided the biggest surprise as the Washington franchise won the NFC East and ask Do you like that? Yes, Kirk Cousins we do. A 6-2 record at home and a formidable fortitude lead to the 10 win season, they could well spring one more surprise versus the Green Bay Packers this weekend. Washington are red hot at home and Green Bay have had their issues on the road.
The division was a cluster stuff of sub par football. The New York Giants should have been 9-7 instead of 6-10 and sending Tom Coughlin to his next job of haunting Bill Belichick and Tom Brady permanently. The Giants had no run game to take some pressure off of Odell Beckham Jr.
The Eagles were a mess in terms of personnel and the contract to DeMarco Murray was a mistake in light that Ryan Mathews was the better back, Chip Kelly’s exit in Week 17 was. It surprising though he does deserve another crack somewhere be it San Francisco or Tennessee, the most likely destinations.
Dallas suffered as their best players Tony Romo and Dez Bryant missed significant periods of the season, if fully fit they can hit certain heights next year and the Number 5 pick in the draft is a blessing without forking out in free agency again.

NFC North
Prediction: Green Bay – Minnesota – Chicago – Detroit
Actual: MIN – GB – DET – CHI

I correctly called the Vikings a playoff team yet they get the Seattle Seahawks visiting having won the division by winning in Lambeau in Week 17. Minnesota have shown just enough edge in their play and the returning Adrian Peterson has given them a winning edge. Can they go all the way is hard to say. Green Bay started off great but have looked anything but convincing with solid performances meeting woeful ones especially the road shocker at Arizona.
Detroit ended 7-9 and but for some rub of the green and defending Hail Marys better they could have nipped the Packers to the playoff berth yet they have big question in the offseason concerning free agent Calvin Johnson. And Chicago go from bad to worse, a boat of injuries denied them momentum but they need some leadership and free agent finds you feel to inject life into them.

NFC West
Prediction: Seattle – Arizona – St. Louis – San Francisco
Actual: ARI – SEA – STL – SF

Credit to the Arizona Cardinals who were the better team in the division although when the Seahawks woke up - or removed Jimmy Graham from their offence – they reminded why they are a force to be
reckoned with. Seattle much like Pittsburgh are the team you want to avoid.
St. Louis flattered to deceive despite a great defence, Nick Foles did not do enough to get plays out of their star players although Todd Gurley is the perennial silver lining for the Rams.  San Francisco sank you felt but still had five wins with Blaine Gabbert after Colin Kaepernick was disposed of, they sacked Jim Tomsula and are now flirting with the idea of Chip Kelly, who might give them a shot of adrenaline but in this division you need muscle and composure exemplified by the Cardinals and Seahawks.

NFC South
Prediction: Carolina – Atlanta – Tampa Bay – New Orleans
Actual: CAR – ATL – NO – TB

Carolina have the best record in football, 15-1, and they deserve immense credit due to the great balance of a lock down defence led by Josh Norman and Luke Kuechly, but certain MVP Cam Newton has done wonders considering his receiving core is not on par with other teams, Ted Ginn Jr?!? but Greg Olsen is probably the second best tight end now behind Gronkowski.
Atlanta started 5-0 and did not make the playoffs. Who is to blame? They remained competitive but the play of Matt Ryan with countless turnovers in the red zone did a disservice to a teams record but overall did not deserve a playoff berth.
The party is over in New Orleans as Sean Payton is likely departing, poor Rob Ryan defence led to terrible losses from which no team can recover. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers got some great momentum for themselves in Jameis Winston’s rookie year – a lot of the team return next year and they could well grow into a viable play off threat much like the Vikings did this year.

Play off Predictions
Washington over Green Bay
Kansas City over Houston
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati
Seattle over Minnesota

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NFL Week 15 preview

Week 14 reminded us of many things. Yes Peyton can still play in the cold, the Seahawks are a very different team on the road and the Saints are a much better team in a dome.

The NFL also reminded us of the joy of participation, when you couple that with a snow blizzard that the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles played in and through.  It did not stop LeSean McCoy running up 200 plus yards of rushing with two touchdowns to enhance the Eagles playoff potential and again put questions on the Lions' who are now tied with Chicago Bears atop the NFC North with three games to go.

Week 15 predictions

Chargers (6-7) at Broncos (11-2)
The Chargers are still maintaining hopes of making the playoffs but they need to win this tough Thursday night battle on the road at Mile High.  The Broncos are rolling, as they scored 51 last week versus a tenacious Tennessee.  Wes Welker will likely miss the game due to a second concussion in a month, yet Peyton Manning has more than enough weapons at his disposal. Watch out for Julius Thomas back to full health at tight end to have a big day.
Prediction: Broncos by 10

Redskins (3-10) at Falcons (3-10)
This could have been a battle between two playoff bound sides instead bad on-field decision making and injury crises have led to this basement battle fodder. Atlanta are not playing awfully, yet could end up with the overall No.1 pick and get Jadaveon Clowney to shore up a battled defence.  They have played hard without sucking, and they should have more than enough to oppose a Washington side who have flattered to deceive pre-season expectation, built around the hopeful return of RG3 that has never materialised.
Prediction: Falcons by 7

Bears (7-6) at Browns (4-8)
Da Bears are rolling with Josh McCown at the helm making few mistakes and scoring more touchdowns.  The Browns are not as bad as their record suggests and in Josh Gordon have one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL currently.
Prediction: Bears by 6

Texans (2-11) at Colts (8-5)
If the Colts win they wrap up the division and a home playoff game, that will likely be versus the Kansas City Chiefs though.  The Colts will not fancy that match-up as their offensive line is woeful and is failing to protect the franchise Andrew Luck. In that same breathe, the Texans have enough defensive lineman to maybe trouble Luck on Sunday. However, the Texans cannot seem to win games presently and it cost Gary Kubiak his job after the most recent loss on Sunday.
Prediction: Colts by 7

Patriots (10-3) at Dolphins (7-6)
The Dolphins were one footstep from being 6-7 and out of the playoff picture, yet Antonio Brown's errant metatarsal (sideline karma is a bitch Tomlin) means the Dolphins got a big road win in the cold of Pittsburgh.  The Patriots will secure the AFC East with victory in the warmer climate of Miami; however, they will have to proceed without Rob Gronkowski who ruptured both his ACL and MCL due to a low but legal tackle.  Tom Brady will still find targets and head to Shane Vereen to benefit the most as the Pats will find a way to win.
Prediction: Pats by 3

Eagles (8-5) at Vikings (3-8-1)
The Vikings lost out to the Baltimore Ravens in a frankly bizarre game on Sunday when five touchdowns were scored in the last 2:03 of regulation. Adrian Peterson may be out this week so Toby Gerhart will get more of the workload.  The Eagles however, will want to win and keep up their momentum thanks to the work of McCoy and Nick Foles who has looked more and more secure of late.
Prediction: Eagles by 8

Seahawks (11-2) at Giants (5-8)
The Seahawks travel East for another road trip, however, unlike last week on the road in San Fran with a team close to their equal this is against the woeful New York Giants who since getting back to 5-6 cannot wait for this season to end and rebuild appropriately.
Prediction: Seahawks by 10

49ers (9-4) at Buccaneers (4-9)
The 49ers will want to maintain their momentum following the vital home win over Seattle, whilst the Bucs  suffered their first lose in five games last week.  The 49ers have Michael Crabtree back and offers a different dimension to their wideout threat, the Bucs will be competitive but cannot see them pulling off the upset.
Prediction: 49ers by 6

Bills (4-9) at Jaguars (4-9)
The Jaguars are on a roll, four wins in five and been impressive with how they have conducting themselves following an 0-8 start. Chad Henne and a returning MJD has helped along with the reliable Cecil Shorts.  The Bills were my tip for a .500 record but the injury to EJ Manuel was something they never recovered from.
Prediction: Jaguars by 7

Chiefs (10-3) at Raiders (4-8)
The Chiefs properly beat up the Washington NFL team last week, if the ref from the Froch-Groves fight was in charge he might have stopped it after six minutes of the second quarter.  The Chiefs still maintain hope of winning the AFC West however they need to continue winning and hope the Broncos come unstuck. The latter is unlikely, but a win over the Raiders is possible. The Raiders have played better than their record suggests but will they have any answer to Jamaal Charles this week.
Prediction: Chiefs by 12

Jets (6-7) at Panthers (9-4)
The Panthers bandwagon came unstuck in the New Orleans dome last week as Rob Ryan's defence had an answer to the play action, run plays of the Panthers. The Jets are suffering behind the so-so play of Geno Smith who is finding out how tough and intense an NFL season is in comparison to the College set-up.  The Panthers will need to bounce back, with Greg Olsen and Steve Smith going to have good days against the Jets secondary.
Prediction: Panthers by 7

Packers (6-6-1) at Cowboys (7-6)
The Cowboys blew up in windy and cold Chicago, luckily they are back at home and facing a Packers team who will still be without Aaron Rodgers whose collarbone and neck injury has not been cleared. Cowboys are one game behind the Eagles atop the NFC East, they need to win desperately.
Prediction: Cowboys by 7

Cardinals (8-5) at Titans (5-8)
The Cardinals have been the biggest surprise of the NFL season, and the most pleasant as man for man they are lesser than some other more vaunted teams. Considering the division they are in, it is a surprise they have 8 wins already and usually that would be good enough for a playoff spot.  However, they are sitting in 7th position behind the 49ers (9-4) and Panthers (9-4), they need to hope one of those teams slips up in due course especially Carolina who they beat earlier in the season 22-6 at home.
After the Titans they go to Seattle, then host San Fran on the last weekend of regular season. The Panthers host the Saints next week, so the Cardinals are not done yet, but most definitely hopeful.  Carson Palmer has two great receiving targets; Larry Fitzgerald and Malcolm Floyd, and two established running backs in Rashard Mendenhall and Andre Ellington.
Prediction: Cardinals by 7

Saints (10-3) at Rams (5-8)
The Saints are close to wrapping up the #2 seed in the NFC, but they have to avoid this potential banana skin on the road at St. Louis although being indoors in December will surely be a home away from home for Drew Brees and his high scoring offence.
Prediction: Saints by 8

Bengals (9-4) at Steelers (5-8)
Good old fashioned AFC North slugfest in most likely freezing conditions, this will be a big test of the Bengals intentions as they need to win this game to stave off the Ravens revival.  The Steelers will be gutted having been so close to an unlikely last minute victory at home to the Dolphins, nevertheless they will still play hard in spite of not being able to finish better than .500 this year.
Prediction: Bengals by 2

Ravens (7-6) at Lions (7-6)
Two evenly matched teams on paper and record, but indoors the Lions will want to put on a show.  Oddly, rookie Safety Matt Elam has just called Calvin Johnson 'pretty old', which for a 27 year old physical specimen is an odd thing to say.  Whilst no respect was surely meant, where else is Matthew Stafford going to throw on Monday night. Reggie Bush will hopefully be back from an ankle injury to lend his rushing and receiving skills to the Lions party.  The Ravens are doing well to stay in the playoff picture, partly due to the woeful nature of the AFC competition - apart from the top 3 of Denver, New England and KC - however, Ray Rice is getting better numbers and Denis Pitta is back from injury and provides Joe Flacco with a safety blanket of a receiver like Jason Witten for Tony Romo in Dallas.
Prediction: Lions by 4

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