In Week 4, I got off to the worst start by sheepishly predicting the Rams would upset the 49ers. However, the Rams could not utilise some good pitch position and some woeful throwing by Sam Bradford led to a sizeable victory by the 49ers who sit 2-2 behind the dominant Seahawks.
Elsewhere during the week I went 10-5 which adding to the previous week of 12-4, I am now 22-9 over two weeks.
I was even lucky enough to predict the correct margin of victory for the Arizona Cardinals over the hapless Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who again succumb to a late field goal. The Redskins won on the road at Oakland after going 14-0 down. There were two upsets as the Bills won at home against the Ravens and the Browns convincingly defeated the Bengals at home 17-6.
There is now a three way tie atop the AFC North between those two teams and the Ravens with all three 2-2; so will the winner of that division be the only representative in the playoffs. The AFC is shaping up to have six from Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Texans and now add the Dolphins.
I would have considered the Titans but the loss of Jake Locker to a hip strain for a supposed four weeks may disrupt their momentum at a crucial time, the replacement Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the more capable back-ups, however, he needs to have good ball control and avoid turnovers, something Locker had done thus far.
This week's predictions (Byes this week for Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Washington, Tampa Bay)
Bills at Browns
Thursday night football usually means bad football, however with these two .500 teams we might be in for a surprise. The Browns are riding a wave of momentum thanks to the play of Brian Hoyer who is throwing for fun and is 2-0 since getting the starting gig. The Bills probably have more offensive weapons yet there is an inconsistency to EJ Manuel's play along with injury concerns over running backs CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson.
Prediction: Browns by 3
Saints at Bears
Jay Cutler finally had his bad game and will want to bounce back in this shoot out against Drew Brees and the 4-0 Saints. However, this is a match-up of two decent offences; yet player of the month Jimmy Graham is having a purple patch of form as well as some receiving yards for Darren Sproles.
Prediction: Saints by 7
Patriots at Bengals
The Patriots having won by 7 at Atlanta on Sunday night, face another tough road trip to the Bengals who are smarting after a shock loss to the Browns. The Bengals will be hoping to pressure Brady like they did against Aaron Rodgers two weeks ago. However, Brady showed signs of clicking with his young receiving core. The Bengals will need to attack the run defence of the Pats without Vince Wilfork whose ruptured Achilles means he is done for the season.
Prediction: Patriots by 4
Lions at Packers
The Packers come off a bye week and the Lions have a spring in their step. If the Detroit defence and vaunted front seven can unsettle Rodgers like they did Cutler, and Rodgers has looked susceptible to pressure versus Bengals. Yet you feel Rodgers has more weapons and the Packers need to stop a rampant Reggie Bush who is the real star of the Lions offence.
Prediction: Packers by 3
Chiefs at Titans
If Locker was fit the Titans would have been favourite for me, yet the Chiefs are playing solid mistake free football led by Alex Smith and the great play of Jamaal Charles who is rushing big and catching out of the backfield for big yards. Whilst fans of Dwayne Bowe will feel aggrieved at this, the defence of the Chiefs is making huge plays as Michael Vick and Eli Manning will attest to.
Prediction: Chiefs by 7
Seahawks at Colts
This should be a great one. The Colts are making noise and are being heard. The Seahawks had a huge win on the road at Houston after being 20 points down to win in overtime led by a Richard Sherman pick six off Matt Schaub. Andrew Luck will be targeted but also tempted to throw down field, and Trent Richardson might have a big day. Another stat this week was that Marshawn Lynch has less yards per carry on the road than when at home. A tough one to predict.
Prediction: Seahawks by 3
Jaguars at Rams
Not the greatest spectacle on paper, a possibility for the Jaguars perhaps to score double-digits yet the Rams will require a response and will have the chance if they can get the run going. Do not expect fireworks.
Prediction: Rams by 7
Ravens at Dolphins
This writer was not a fan of the Dolphins before the season, yet they have the potential to be a playoff team due to the consistency of Ryan Tannehill and this under-rated defence. They will have another chance to make a statement such as their victory over the Falcons against Joe Flacco, who threw five (FIVE) interceptions versus the Bills last week. The Ravens also ran the ball only nine (NINE!!) times, a sheer waste of Ray Rice's ability and yet the Dolphins run defence is pretty good.
Prediciton: Dolphins by 5
Eagles at Giants
1-3 versus 0-4 in the awful NFC East. Eli Manning has no protection and the Chip Kelly offence could not keep up with Peyton Manning. This match will be decided by the play of LeSean McCoy against a run defence that is non-existent; pay note fantasy fans.
Prediction: Eagles by 7
Panthers at Cardinals
Carolina might have too much for the Cardinals who are plainly a hot and cold team. The Panthers got a win before their bye week thanks to utilising the power of Cam Newton's prowess out of the pocket. The Panthers might goad Carson Palmer to throw considering Rashard Mendenhall is not getting much joy with the rushing.
Prediction: Panthers by 3
Broncos at Cowboys
Can the Cowboys come up with a plan to slow down the accurate and precision machine of Peyton Manning's led offence that averages 40+ points a game. Manning has no interceptions and 16 touchdowns, whilst sharing the joy for touches with Welker, the Thomases and Eric Decker. Romo can sling it but can he sling it enough versus these Broncos? Probably not.
Prediction: Broncos by 10
Texans at 49ers
The Texans keep beating themselves and the 49ers are seemingly turning the corner thanks to getting back to the sort of defence that got them to the Super Bowl last year, and with Aldon Smith away from the team more players are coming to the party. Schaub will probably not have enough and with Arian Foster not producing, the 49ers D will have too much.
Prediction: 49ers by 6
Chargers at Raiders
Terrelle Pryor returns for the Raiders following Matt Flynn stinking out the joint. They go up against a resurgent Philip Rivers in this AFC West contest, along with Danny Woodhead becoming the focus of the offense. Most of these matchups I have predicted thus far have been picking the better defence over a weaker defence; in this case you pick the better quarterback.
Prediction: Chargers by 10
Jets at Falcons
The Falcons need to win this otherwise they will be an incredible four games behind the Saints if they beat the Bears. The Falcons came close against a good Patriots side, but the comeback was too late. Whilst the Jets defence has turned some heads you do wonder if they will be able to contain Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez, who had a career day on Sunday. Career day at the age of 37, yeah its about time.
Prediction: Falcons by 7
My thanks to the boys at DundeeNFL who hosted me as we talked the Week 4 action, follow this link to the podcast
Showing posts with label DundeeNFL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DundeeNFL. Show all posts
Thursday, 3 October 2013
Sunday, 30 June 2013
Fourth Down & Out - Aaron Hernandez
Listen to my appearance on the DundeeNFL.com podcast talking about Aaron Hernandez along with the illustrious Boston resident, Russ Goldman with his take on the sorry situation involving our tight end.
Here is the link, my segment starts after 16minutes:
http://www.dundeenfl.com/2013/06/29/fourth-down-and-out-aaron-hernandez/
Follow the guys on @DundeeNFL
Russ Goldman @Russ_Goldman
and me @JamieGarwood
Here is the link, my segment starts after 16minutes:
http://www.dundeenfl.com/2013/06/29/fourth-down-and-out-aaron-hernandez/
Follow the guys on @DundeeNFL
Russ Goldman @Russ_Goldman
and me @JamieGarwood
Thursday, 18 October 2012
DundeeNFL Dynasty League review
In mid-August I was given a tweet by my friend, Dan Ferdinand (@danferdinand) who asked if I was up to joining an NFL fantasy league. I had experienced Fantasy football for the first time proper last season on the nfl.com website, I enjoyed some success winning the Plate final, but for a first year rookie I was chuffed.
Joining a Fantasy football league changes your entire outlook on the viewing experience of the NFL. Instead of focusing solely on one team and division, for me the New England Patriots and AFC East; you change into this sponge of information and knowledge. Your depth and recognition of names and statistics become huge; you watch injury reports, waiver wires.
For the first time this season, I pay attention to the inactives report on Sunday afternoon, for example, if Greg Jennings is out for the Green Bay Packers (which is becoming as frequent as Darren Anderton on the treatment table) then you know a different Packer WR/TE will get more targets. You also pay attention to who scores which teams touchdowns, for instance Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis does the horse cart work for the Cincinnati Bengals yet does not get the touchdown figures.
The league Dan asked me join was the Dundeenfl Dynasty league, set up by four gents from Dundee, Scotland (Ian, John, Russell, Martin) along with some other friends and wives. Dan also asked if my brother, Sean would want to join. Sean is always game for a challenge but more on that later.
For the first time I had to do my pre-draft rankings, ranking the top 200 players in my opinion based on total points expected for the season. This may seem a trivial and silly matter based on us being unable to see injuries and momentum shifts. For example, who knew that the Colts coach would be diagnosed with leukeamia or that Ray Lewis would injury his triceps and ruin his season.
It becomes more prevalent when the draft order comes out, of which I was ranked #1 overall. This is a blessing and a curse, and led to much debate between myself and Dan about who should I take first - Tom Brady (my golden boy) or Aaron Rodgers (the reigning MVP). Being 1st overall, means you are last in the 2nd round, so you get picks 1, 20, 21, 40, 41. The draft is electrifying and a brilliant night as you pick things on the fly, as people are swiped from you. Twice I break Dan's heart by stealing the aforementioned BJGE Law Firm and Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh) for two of my RBs along with rookie Doug Martin of Tampa Bay.
As for my brother, I sat with him when he did his rankings, I laughed as he picked the Patriots defence in the top 50. And other names like Randy Moss, Dennis Pitta, Reggie Bush all appeared in his top 100. These names would be lower on people's boards, and to make the draft night funnier, Sean was out on the night so his draft was automatic and yet he ended up getting those he wanted - Tom Brady fell to him 4th overall, he got Moss, Pitta, Bush and a steal in Jamal Charles (Chiefs). Sean sits 4-2 after six games. I sit 1-5, with my tail somewhat between my leagues although the figures show I have been unlucky. Here are the facts:
Week 1 - Team Garwood 111.12 (0-1) lost to Forrester's Flayers (Martin) 122.56 (1-0)
Usually if you score close to 90 points you are good for a win, so imagine how I feel. I have Rodgers(22.82) who lost to the 49ers, yet Martin has two high scorers in Matt Ryan (32.46) a great pick after 6 weeks obviously. I get some good production but seem to get less TD scores from my receivers, and my pick of Greg Jennings (3.40) and his persistent injuries will be a show of things to come.
Week 2 - Team Garwood 63.96 (0-2) lost to Gronk if your horny (Ian) 111.54 (2-0)
My second consecutive Dundee opponent, and I get my arse handed to me. Rodgers (10.16) loses to RG3 (30.44) in a huge mismatch. Rodgers played the Bears and was intercepted, you need to have a QB who can avoid turnovers, maybe I should have checked the schedule better for Rodgers. RG3 is a fantasy monster, 200+ yards passing and 80+ yards rushing and a rushing TD. My receiving core again fails me, not helped by the injury sustained by Aaron Hernandez (0.00) before he can register a reception, and Robert Meachem (0.00) getting nothing. No-one on my bench would have saved me. Ian also had Marshawn Lynch (18.20) and Reggie Wayne (13.10)
Week 3 - Team Garwood 91.72 (0-3) lost to Mistake on the lake (Simon) 109.22 (2-1)
Rodgers is getting on my tits, 10.62 versus the Seahawks in that infamous replacement ref game. I lose to Andrew Luck (23.52) who is having a great first year. My highest scorer is the Bears Defence (23.00) who beat the Giants D (16.00), but the receiving core curse continues. Greg Jennings (3.5) and Jacob Tamme (3.1) are low scorers and the loss of Hernandez for a few weeks will be massive. Yet Santonio Holmes (14.7) is good, but no TD costs me a victory.
Week 4 - Team Garwood 90.96 (0-4) lost to Gants Hill Raiders (Dan) 112.92 (4-0)
In a clash of Hogan v the Rock, undefeated beats unwinnable. I face the man who brought me to the party. and despite Rodgers (28.06) winning the QB showdown versus Peyton Manning (25.47), Rodgers is guilty of one turnover that costs me points that could have won the game. Dan gets great numbers from Brandon Lloyd (11), AJ Green (17.7) and Gronkowski (14.4). Something is wrong when my second highest scorer is my D (24.00) and my third highest is my kicker Matt Prater (15.00). I am still scoring high though and I am competing, I need injuries to go my way and good things can happen.
Week 5 - Team Garwood 92.10 (0-5) lost to Brown Bears 109.34 (Holly) (5-0)
Excuses are for losers, but at 0-5 the excuses are the only things to have. Santonio Holmes has gone on the IR with a Lisfranc injury and I lose to a girl, who forgets to fill two bye players and she still beats me. Rodgers (25.10) outscores her QB Cam Newton (7.84) easily, yet unlike me she gains valuable points from her receivers, Marques Colston (31.10 - 131 yards, 3 TDs) and Victor Cruz (23.00, 50 yards, 3TDs). My highest receiver is Jacob Tamme (5.00, 50 yards). At least Mendenhall is back, and the Bears defence keep scoring pick 6s which help me to 28.00, yet they are having a bye next week.
Week 6 - Team Garwood (70.54) (1-5) beat Team Epping FC 54.00 (4-2)
Break out the bubbly, I win a game. Yet how do I win without a defence, and by dropping my quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I dropped him as I thought against the Texans he might suffer, yet 6 TDs later teach me a lesson. I picked Philip Rivers who scored 5.64 with 4 INTs and two fumbles. Finally though I gain numbers from receivers, Jeremy Maclin (19.00), promoted Denarius Moore (16.40) and Doug Martin (13.10), whilst my brother got my curse with only one player in double digits, Brady (19.80), his next highest scorer is Reggie Bush and he gets no receiving/rushing TD from his team.
How I won, I do not know. But its my first and like Cleveland Browns I can smell a sea change and division title coming. How I won, scoring my second lowest point total is bizarre. Yet like the NFL for real, parity is here to stay and consistency is so inconsistent.
Check back with me over the next few weeks for fantasy updates.
Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood for all NFL updates.
Follow @DundeeNFL and visit their website www.dundeeNFL.com where you can read about them and also listen to their excellent 4th & Out podcast which is both funny and enlightening.
Joining a Fantasy football league changes your entire outlook on the viewing experience of the NFL. Instead of focusing solely on one team and division, for me the New England Patriots and AFC East; you change into this sponge of information and knowledge. Your depth and recognition of names and statistics become huge; you watch injury reports, waiver wires.
For the first time this season, I pay attention to the inactives report on Sunday afternoon, for example, if Greg Jennings is out for the Green Bay Packers (which is becoming as frequent as Darren Anderton on the treatment table) then you know a different Packer WR/TE will get more targets. You also pay attention to who scores which teams touchdowns, for instance Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis does the horse cart work for the Cincinnati Bengals yet does not get the touchdown figures.
The league Dan asked me join was the Dundeenfl Dynasty league, set up by four gents from Dundee, Scotland (Ian, John, Russell, Martin) along with some other friends and wives. Dan also asked if my brother, Sean would want to join. Sean is always game for a challenge but more on that later.
For the first time I had to do my pre-draft rankings, ranking the top 200 players in my opinion based on total points expected for the season. This may seem a trivial and silly matter based on us being unable to see injuries and momentum shifts. For example, who knew that the Colts coach would be diagnosed with leukeamia or that Ray Lewis would injury his triceps and ruin his season.
It becomes more prevalent when the draft order comes out, of which I was ranked #1 overall. This is a blessing and a curse, and led to much debate between myself and Dan about who should I take first - Tom Brady (my golden boy) or Aaron Rodgers (the reigning MVP). Being 1st overall, means you are last in the 2nd round, so you get picks 1, 20, 21, 40, 41. The draft is electrifying and a brilliant night as you pick things on the fly, as people are swiped from you. Twice I break Dan's heart by stealing the aforementioned BJGE Law Firm and Rashard Mendenhall (Pittsburgh) for two of my RBs along with rookie Doug Martin of Tampa Bay.
As for my brother, I sat with him when he did his rankings, I laughed as he picked the Patriots defence in the top 50. And other names like Randy Moss, Dennis Pitta, Reggie Bush all appeared in his top 100. These names would be lower on people's boards, and to make the draft night funnier, Sean was out on the night so his draft was automatic and yet he ended up getting those he wanted - Tom Brady fell to him 4th overall, he got Moss, Pitta, Bush and a steal in Jamal Charles (Chiefs). Sean sits 4-2 after six games. I sit 1-5, with my tail somewhat between my leagues although the figures show I have been unlucky. Here are the facts:
Week 1 - Team Garwood 111.12 (0-1) lost to Forrester's Flayers (Martin) 122.56 (1-0)
Usually if you score close to 90 points you are good for a win, so imagine how I feel. I have Rodgers(22.82) who lost to the 49ers, yet Martin has two high scorers in Matt Ryan (32.46) a great pick after 6 weeks obviously. I get some good production but seem to get less TD scores from my receivers, and my pick of Greg Jennings (3.40) and his persistent injuries will be a show of things to come.
Week 2 - Team Garwood 63.96 (0-2) lost to Gronk if your horny (Ian) 111.54 (2-0)
My second consecutive Dundee opponent, and I get my arse handed to me. Rodgers (10.16) loses to RG3 (30.44) in a huge mismatch. Rodgers played the Bears and was intercepted, you need to have a QB who can avoid turnovers, maybe I should have checked the schedule better for Rodgers. RG3 is a fantasy monster, 200+ yards passing and 80+ yards rushing and a rushing TD. My receiving core again fails me, not helped by the injury sustained by Aaron Hernandez (0.00) before he can register a reception, and Robert Meachem (0.00) getting nothing. No-one on my bench would have saved me. Ian also had Marshawn Lynch (18.20) and Reggie Wayne (13.10)
Week 3 - Team Garwood 91.72 (0-3) lost to Mistake on the lake (Simon) 109.22 (2-1)
Rodgers is getting on my tits, 10.62 versus the Seahawks in that infamous replacement ref game. I lose to Andrew Luck (23.52) who is having a great first year. My highest scorer is the Bears Defence (23.00) who beat the Giants D (16.00), but the receiving core curse continues. Greg Jennings (3.5) and Jacob Tamme (3.1) are low scorers and the loss of Hernandez for a few weeks will be massive. Yet Santonio Holmes (14.7) is good, but no TD costs me a victory.
Week 4 - Team Garwood 90.96 (0-4) lost to Gants Hill Raiders (Dan) 112.92 (4-0)
In a clash of Hogan v the Rock, undefeated beats unwinnable. I face the man who brought me to the party. and despite Rodgers (28.06) winning the QB showdown versus Peyton Manning (25.47), Rodgers is guilty of one turnover that costs me points that could have won the game. Dan gets great numbers from Brandon Lloyd (11), AJ Green (17.7) and Gronkowski (14.4). Something is wrong when my second highest scorer is my D (24.00) and my third highest is my kicker Matt Prater (15.00). I am still scoring high though and I am competing, I need injuries to go my way and good things can happen.
Week 5 - Team Garwood 92.10 (0-5) lost to Brown Bears 109.34 (Holly) (5-0)
Excuses are for losers, but at 0-5 the excuses are the only things to have. Santonio Holmes has gone on the IR with a Lisfranc injury and I lose to a girl, who forgets to fill two bye players and she still beats me. Rodgers (25.10) outscores her QB Cam Newton (7.84) easily, yet unlike me she gains valuable points from her receivers, Marques Colston (31.10 - 131 yards, 3 TDs) and Victor Cruz (23.00, 50 yards, 3TDs). My highest receiver is Jacob Tamme (5.00, 50 yards). At least Mendenhall is back, and the Bears defence keep scoring pick 6s which help me to 28.00, yet they are having a bye next week.
Week 6 - Team Garwood (70.54) (1-5) beat Team Epping FC 54.00 (4-2)
Break out the bubbly, I win a game. Yet how do I win without a defence, and by dropping my quarterback Aaron Rodgers. I dropped him as I thought against the Texans he might suffer, yet 6 TDs later teach me a lesson. I picked Philip Rivers who scored 5.64 with 4 INTs and two fumbles. Finally though I gain numbers from receivers, Jeremy Maclin (19.00), promoted Denarius Moore (16.40) and Doug Martin (13.10), whilst my brother got my curse with only one player in double digits, Brady (19.80), his next highest scorer is Reggie Bush and he gets no receiving/rushing TD from his team.
How I won, I do not know. But its my first and like Cleveland Browns I can smell a sea change and division title coming. How I won, scoring my second lowest point total is bizarre. Yet like the NFL for real, parity is here to stay and consistency is so inconsistent.
Check back with me over the next few weeks for fantasy updates.
Follow me on twitter @JamieGarwood for all NFL updates.
Follow @DundeeNFL and visit their website www.dundeeNFL.com where you can read about them and also listen to their excellent 4th & Out podcast which is both funny and enlightening.
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